Assessing solar option for groundwater extraction in Morocco

1. MOROCCO NARS/ICARDA CRP2 WORKSHOP, RABAT MAY 22, 2015
IS SOLAR ENERGY A VIABLE OPTION TO
REPLACE LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GAS?
A CASE OF IRRIGATED AREAS USING
GROUNDWATER IN MOROCCO
Serghini H., Roberto T, Ampaitepin S.,
Laamari A. and Aden A.

2. CONTENT
1. Challenge with LPG use;
2. Domestic price and subsidy energy policy;
3. Survey sample, study sides and results;
4. Scenarios simulating spreading out of LPG use in Morocco;
5. Solar energy investment costs, comparison with LPG costs, Net
Present Value;
6. Valuation of CO2 Emissions;
7. Conclusions and recommendations.

3. CHALLENGE
 Subsidy to LPG  LPG subsidy introduced long ago  purpose provide
poor households, with affordable source of energy to incentive to switch
away from wood and charcoal. Yet, unexpected application  farmers
started to use LPG for irrigation purposes;
 In 2014  International price of a 12-litre bottle of LPG was $14 (about
100 DH). Moroccans pay just 40% of that amount as the government
fixed a retail price of $5.60 (40 DH) per bottle;
 Almost 100% percent of LPG consumed in Morocco is imported, and
hence it is highly exposed to international price fluctuations;
 No official estimation of LPG use for pumping irrigation water. Field
observation and survey (87%) suggest that LPG used as primary energy
source is spreading out;
 Meeting of the Moroccan Parliament (Rabat - December, 2012)  the
use of solar panels as an alternative to LPG: (i) Shrinking government
subsidy resources; (ii) Farmers’ needs to secure energy for irrigation
purposes; and (iii) Concerns for environmental aspects.

4. CHALLENGE: SUBSIDY TO PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
OVERTIME HAS INCREASED!!!
* Preliminary data.
Source: Cour des comptes, Rapport sur Le système de compensation au Maroc Diagnostic et
propositions de réforme, janvier 2014.
48.3 Billion DH
(6,350 million
US$)
1.5 Billion DH
(197 million US$)
36 Billion DH
(4,737 million
US$)

5. SUBSIDY LEVEL BY SOURCE OF ENERGY
Source: Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances, 2014.
LPG Diesel Gasoline
DH/Kg % of the price DH/L % of the price DH/L % of the price
2008 5.2 157 1.6 22 1.0 9
2009 3.0 91 0.4 6 0.1 1
2010 5.4 161 2.0 28 1.2 12
2011 7.0 210 3.9 55 2.7 27
2012 7.5 224 4.0 49 2.3 19
2013 6.7 201 3.1 38 1.2 10
Subsidy to LPG remains relatively constant, while subsidy to diesel
and gasoline tend to decrease.

6. SURVEY
Two Moroccan regions (112 households surveyed):
1) Sidi Laidi (Settat Province of the Chaouia-Ouardigha region) 
43 farmers randomly selected
2) Ouled Zaydouh (region in Fqih Ben Saleh province)  69
farmers randomly selected
Survey streamlined 14 discussion questions around six areas: 1) Farm
characteristics; 2) Irrigation facilities; 3) Water storage; 4) Cost of
pumping; 5) Energy used by the household; and 6) Potential use of
solar energy for irrigation.
and

7. SURVEY RESULTS
NUMBER AND SIZE OF FARMS IN SIDI LAIDI AND
FQUIH BEN SALEH
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey,
2014.
Region Indicator < 5 ha ≥ 5 and < 10 ha ≥ 10 and < 20 ha ≥ 20 ha All sizes
Sidi
Laidi
Average area (ha) 2.8 6.3 12.5 30.6 11.4
St. Deviation 13.1
Number of farms 14 9 12 8 43
Number of farms (%) 32.6 20.9 27.9 18.6 100
Maximum size (ha) 4 8 18.5 80 80
Minimum size (ha) 1.5 5 10 20 1.5
Fquih
Ben
Saleh
Average area (ha) 2.9 6.1 13.5 30 9.6
St. Deviation 8.7
Number of farms 17 30 14 8 69
Number of farms (%) 24.6 43.5 20.3 11.6 100
Maximum size (ha) 4.7 9 19 40 40
Minimum size (ha) 1.2 5 10 22 1.2

8. Region One Two Three Four Five Six Total Average
Number
of farmers
Sidi Laidi 62.8 25.6 2.3 4.7 2.3 2.3 100 1.7
Fquih Ben Saleh 73.9 21.7 1.4 1.4 0 1.4 100 1.4
1
AVERAGE SIZE OF FARMS ACCORDING TO LAND
OWNERSHIP
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Region Private Collective Rented Average farm size
Sidi Laidi
Ha 6.0 2.4 3.0 11.4
% 52.0 21.8 26.2 100.0
Fquih Ben Saleh
Ha 6.2 0.5 2.9 9.6
% 65.7 4.7 29.6 100.0
1 Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey,
2014.
Number of wells owned by farmers (percentage)

9. AVERAGE AGE OF WELLS
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey,
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey,
2014.
Average depth of the wells
Range
Sidi Laidi Fquih Ben Saleh
% Average age of wells % Average age of wells
< 10 years 38.1 4.0 12.4 7.4
≥ 10 and < 20 years 31.7 14.7 47.2 14.5
≥ 20 and < 30 years 22.2 22.4 22.5 23.5
≥ 30 years 7.9 36.4 18.0 35.9
All ages 100 14.1 100 19.5
1
Well depth in meters
Sidi Laidi Fquih Ben Saleh
Number of wells (%) Average depth Number of wells (%) Average depth
< 40 m 19.7 31.4 11 19
≥ 40 and < 50 m 19.7 42.2 11 43
≥ 50 and < 60 m 15.5 52 38.5 77.1
≥ 60 m 45.1 62.8 39.6 140.2
Total 100 50.9 100 91.9

10. PUMPS’ LIFETIME DURATION, AVERAGE
PRICE AND DEPRECIATION
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Region Age
< 10
years
≥ 10 and < 20
years
≥ 20 and < 30
years
≥ 30
years
All
Sidi
Laidi
Number of pumps in % 1.3 68.4 29.1 1.3 100.0
Pump average price (DH)* 25,000 19,709 21,522 30,000 20,434
Average pumps' lifetime in years 8.0 10.5 20.4 30.0 13.6
Depreciation DH/year 3,125 1,870 1,055 1,000 1,500
Fquih
Ben
Saleh
Number of pumps in % 3.3 55.6 27.8 13.3 100.0
Pump average price (DH)* 15,667 22,630 28,588 28,667 24,858
Average pumps' lifetime in years 5.3 11.5 21.0 32.6 16.7
Depreciation DH/year 2,938 1,971 1,361 880 1,486

11. ENERGY COST OF PUMPING GROUNDWATER
(PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL WELLS)
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Cost levels
Sid Laidi Fquih Ben Saleh
LPG LPG Diesel
Less than 0.20 DH/m3
8.8 10.3 -
0.20 and < 0.30 DH/m3
44.1 39.7 -
0.30 and < 0.40 DH/m3
38.2 27.9 -
0.40 and < 0.50 DH/m3
2.9 10.3 9.5
0.50 and < 0.60 DH/m3
2.9 5.9 33.3
0.60 DH/m3
or more 2.9 5.9 57.1
Total quantity of wells (%) 100 100 100
Average cost (DH/m3
) 0.30 0.33 0.67

12. SCENARIOS SIMULATING SPREADING OUT OF
LPG USE IN MOROCCO
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey,
2014.
• Scenario 1: 30% of private irrigation uses LPG;
• Scenario 2: 50% of private irrigation uses LPG;
• Scenario 3: 75% of private irrigation uses LPG;
• Scenario 4: 100% of private irrigation uses LPG.
Range Sidi Laidi Fquih Ben Saleh
Less than 100 m3
/cylinder 14,0 21,8
100 and < 150 m3
/cylinder 51,2 36,4
150 and < 200 m3
/cylinder 27,9 29,1
200 m3
/cylinder or more 7,0 12,7
Total 100 100
Average abstraction (m3
/bottle of LPG) 140 124
1
Groundwater abstraction per region and farmer (percentage)

13. Scenario: Percentage
of private irrigation
using LPG)
Amount of
groundwater pumped
using LPG (billion m3
)
LPG subsidy
(billion DH)
Percentage
increase of 2013
LPG subsidy
Scenario 1: 30% 1.2 0.7 4.9
Scenario 2: 50% 2 1.2 8.1
Scenario 3: 75% 3 1.9 12.2
Scenario 4: 100% 4 2.5 16.3
1
ENERGY COST OF PUMPING GROUNDWATER
(PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL WELLS)
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Impact of shifting from diesel to LPG
Region For the needs of Yes No No response Total
Sidi Laidi
Households 7.0 90.7 2.3 100
Pumping 0.0 90.7 9.3 100
Fquih Ben Saleh
Households 6.9 87.5 5.6 100
Pumping 0.0 91.7 8.3 100
1
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Solar energy current use

14. SOLAR ENERGY INVESTMENT, AND
COMPARISON BETWEEN LPG AND SOLAR
SYSTEM COSTS
Source: Own elaboration based on interview to solar panel provided in Rabat-Morocco, September
2014.
Solar energy installation system cost
Case
Well depth
(m)
Groundwater
abstraction (m3
/day)
Total cost of the
investment (DH)
Annual depreciation of the
whole investment (DH)
1 30 22 25,068 2,062
2 200 140 567,312 34,492
3 49 340 293,040 18,622
4 56 65 89,296 5,982
5 80 100 188,802 12,952
6 30 50 49,760 3,790
7 90 30 89,296 5,982
8 120 153 358,017 23,199
9 46 192 330,000 18,600
Average 78 121 221,177 13,965
1

15. Source: Own elaboration based on interview to solar panel provided in Rabat-Morocco, September
2014.
Cost of pumping water by case
Case
Well
depth
(m)
Annual quantity
of groundwater
pumped
(m3
/year)
Annual
quantity of
water pumped
by m of depth
Annual
cost
(DH)
Average
cost of one
m3
(DH)
Cost of one
m3
out of one
meter of
depth (DH)
1 30 10,039 301,170 2,062 0.21 0.0068
2 200 63,887 12,777,400 34,492 0.54 0.0027
3 49 155,153 7,602,497 18,622 0.12 0.0024
4 56 29,662 1,661,072 5,982 0.20 0.0036
5 80 45,633 3,650,640 12,952 0.28 0.0035
6 30 22,817 684,510 3,790 0.17 0.0055
7 90 13,690 1,232,100 5,982 0.44 0.0049
8 120 69,819 8,378,280 23,199 0.33 0.0028
9 46 87,616 4,030,336 18,600 0.21 0.0046

16. Source: Own elaboration based on interview to solar panel provided in Rabat-Morocco, September
2014.
Cost of one cubic meter per one meter depth (DH)
0.0000
0.0010
0.0020
0.0030
0.0040
0.0050
0.0060
0.0070
0.0080
0 50 100 150 200 250
Costofonem3outofonemeter
depth(DH)
Well depness (m)
Higher
costs
Lower
costs

17. Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Cost of pumping one cubic meter of groundwater
Liquefied gas (DH) Solar energy (DH) Difference (%)
Sidi Laidi 0.30 0.20 33.3
Fquih Ben Saleh 0.33 0.13 60.6
1
Subsidy to solar systems (simulation scenario)
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Estimated quantity
of groundwater
currently pumped
(billion m3
)
Number of
needed
solar panels
Cost of acquiring
solar panels
(million DH)
Budget for
50% Subsidy
(million DH)
Allocation of 50% of
the gain from
switching to solar
energy (million DH)
Number of years
to cover all
pumped water by
solar energy
4 31,950 6.6 3.3 371 9

18. Income and cost structure of representative farmer
Crop Income (DH) Cost (DH) Net revenue (DH) Production area (ha)
Alfalfa 4,125 1,276 2,849 1.25
Corn 54,089 12,402 41,687 4.00
Olive tree 52,500 2,501 49,999 2.50
Potato 525 2,485 - 1,960 0.25
Onion 1,300 1,125 175 0.50
Sesame 3,125 1,088 2,038 0.50
Pepper 2,875 8,392 - 5,517 0.50
Citrus 1,200 1,500 - 300 1.50
Total agriculture 119,739 30,769 88,970 11.00
Source: Own elaboration based on Benchmark survey data (ICARDA, 2010).
Net Present Value (NPV) analysis
1 - (1+r)-t
r
x - ICNPV =

19. Indicator NPV1 NPV2 NPV3 NPV4 NPV5
Income reduction (%) 10 20 30 40 50
New income (DH) 107,765 95,791 83,817 71,843 59,869
New net revenue (DH) 76,996 65,023 53,049 41,075 29,101
New NPV (DH) 108,261 57,030 5,798 45,434- 96,665-
Change in r (%) 30 35 40 45 50
New NPV (DH) 73,830 32,395 983 23,582- 43,290-
Sensitivity analysis, reductions in income and increases in discount rate
Source: Own elaboration based on Benchmark survey data (ICARDA, 2010).
Estimated NPV investment on solar energy  DH 159,493 (about US$
20,985)  investment would be profitable
Discount rate (%): r = 0.23
Time period (years): t = 20
Initial investment (DH): I = 221,177
Net income (DH): C = 88,970
Net Present Value (DH): NPV = 159,493

20. VALUATION OF CO2 EMISSIONS : ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLY AND ENERGY SAVING
FROM APPLYING SOLAR ENERGY IN PUMPING GROUNDWATER: A CASE STUDY IN
MOROCCO
CO2 analysis: Emissions
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Parameters
LPG Diesel
Sidi
Laidi
Fquih Ben
Saleh
Sidi
Laidi
Fquih Ben
Saleh
Annual Consumption (kg or lt /year)
No. of farmers
51,040
39
165,290
56
7,400
2
72,797
16
CO2 emission per area (kg-CO2/ha/year)
Equivalent to emission amount of passenger cars /year
425
19
477
61
1,397
4
972
44
Estimation at national level
Parameters LPG Diesel
CO2 emission per Total Area Equipped for Irrigation (million kg-CO2/year)
Equivalent to CO2 passenger car emissions (number)
Share of all passenger cars in Morocco (%)
676.4
153,006
7.13
1,457.9
329,773
15.37

21. VALUATION OF CO2 EMISSIONS : ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLY AND ENERGY SAVING
FROM APPLYING SOLAR ENERGY IN PUMPING GROUNDWATER: A CASE STUDY IN
MOROCCO ( CONT.)
CO2 analysis: Emissions
MJ/ha/year= Megajoules per hectare per year.
TJ/year = terajoules/year
Source: Own elaboration based on solar panel survey, 2014.
Parameter
LPG Diesel
Sidi Laidi
Fquih Ben
Saleh
Sidi Laidi
Fquih Ben
Saleh
Net Heating Value (NHV) per Area (MJ/ha/year)
Equivalent to 60-watt electric bulb (bulbs/year)
6,531
8
18,976
24
7,332
9
13,206
17
Estimation at national level
Parameter LPG Diesel
NHV per Total Area Equipped for Irrigation, (TJ/year)
Equivalent to 60-watt electric bulb (million bulbs/year)
10,389
13
19,810
25

22.  Valuing Carbon & Carbon Trading
 Do you know Carbon Emission can be traded in the market?
 How Agriculture can involve in the carbon trading?

23. CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
 The results of the survey implemented in Sidi Laidi and Fquih Ben
Saleh suggests  there is a trend to widespread the use of LPG
(cost is much less than diesel). This is encourage by the fact
subsidy to diesel is shrinking, while keeping changeless subsidy to
LPG.
 If LPG use to pump groundwater widespread to 30% of private
lands,  impact on government subsidy would be 0.7 billion DH
(about 92 million dollars). If it is used in 100% of irrigated lands 
subsidy would grow by 2.5 billion DH (about 329 million dollars);
 We estimated that in average solar energy is between 33.3% and
60.6% cheaper than LPG;
 NPV estimations suggest  investing in solar energy is profitable.
However, sensitivity analysis indicates the uncertainty and risk
associated to solar energy. Government might need to consider
providing important subsidies to purchase solar systems;
 If farmers eventually adopt solar energy, the government should
not expect that LPG system is completely abandoned.

24. CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT…)
 Environmental evaluation of CO2 emissions from LPG and
diesel suggests that diesel contaminates more than LPG;
 The level of LPG CO2 emission emerging from pumping
groundwater is equivalent to the emissions that 7.13% of all
passenger cars in Morocco generate in one year. In the case
of diesel, CO2 emissions out of pumping groundwater would
be equivalent to those generated by 15.37% of all passenger
cars in Morocco;
 Switching from LPG or diesel to solar energy would mean
saving the equivalent amount of energy spent by13 to 25
million 60-watt electric bulbs (depending on the type of fuel -
LPG or diesel- that is replaced).

25. CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
 Once the solar energy is installed, the cost of pumping water
is almost zero. Farmers may be tempted to overuse irrigation
water and to extend their irrigated surface  As a
consequence, the depletion of groundwater may be
accelerated;
 The size of the solar energy installed should correspond to
the capacity of wells and the needs of plants;
 The government should, as requirement, implement
groundwater meters to control the amount of groundwater
pumped, and to apply costing to groundwater to make it
sustainable in the long term. This measure is very
challenging to implement but it is the only way to save the
groundwater;
 More research on solar energy and irrigation in the frame of

26. THANK YOU
MOROCCO NARS/ICARDA PARTNESHIP
COORDINATION MEETING