Assessment of technologies to decarbonize the transport sector

1. WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN
The environmental performance
of current & future passenger vehicles
B. Cox, C. Mutel, Christian Bauer :: Energy Systems Analysis :: Paul Scherrer Institut
ETSAP workshop, ETHZ, December 12, 2017

2. -2-
Why decarbonization of passenger vehicles?
G. Georges, after BAFU & BFS 2017
Mobility sector in Switzerland:
sector with highest CO2 emissions
46% of national emissions (incl. aviation) in 2015
sector with highest consumption of final energy
36% of national consumption in 2015
almost entirely dependent on oil
95% of mobility related energy consumption was oil-based in 2015

3. -3-G. Georges, after BAFU 2017
Why decarbonization of passenger vehicles?
AnnualCO2emissions(direct)[Mt/year]
mobility (incl. aviation)
households
industry
service sector

4. -4-

5. Life Cycle Assessment - LCA
LCA is a technique to assess environmental impacts
associated with all the stages of a product's life cycle from-
cradle-to-grave, i.e., from raw material extraction through
materials processing, manufacturing, distribution, use,
repair and maintenance, and disposal or recycling.
-5-

6. Life Cycle Assessment - LCA
«Background»
LCA data
Materials, fuels, energy supply,
transport, infrastructure, disposal,…
Zero emission ?Environmental impacts?
-6-

7. Procedure for consistent vehicle assessment
Hofer 2014 -7-

8. LCA of passenger vehicles: acronyms
 ICEV: Internal combustion engine vehicle
 HEV: Hybrid electric vehicle
 BEV: Battery electric vehicle
 FCEV: Fuel cell electric vehicle
 -p: petrol as fuel
 -d: diesel as fuel
 -g: compressed natural gas (CNG) as fuel
 P2G: Power-to-Gas
 SMR: Hydrogen from «Steam Methane Reforming» of natural gas
 CH (electricity): average electricity supply in Switzerland
 BAU: Business As Usual
 NEP: New Energy Policy
-8-

9. Energy consumption: vehicle operation
Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary -9-

10. LCA results: GHG emissions today
-10-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

11. LCA results: GHG emissions ~2040
-11-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

12. LCA results: particulate matter today
-12-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

13. LCA results: particulate matter ~2040
-13-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

14. LCA results: «summer smog» today
-14-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

15. LCA results: «summer smog» ~2040
-15-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

16. LCA results: lifetime distance vs GHG emissions
-16-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

17. LCA results: impact of CO2 intensity
-17-Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary

18. Main uncertainties & limitations in LCA
 Location-specific assessment of health impacts
 Emissions of pollutants from ICEV (NOx, PM, etc.)
 Batteries & fuel cells:
lifetime, manufacturing chain, future technology development
 Effects of large scale implementation of BEV & FCV
-18-

19. Take home messages
 BEV & FCV only provide environmental benefits with electricity and H2
from renewable sources
 GHG emissions of BEV & FCV can be up to 70% lower than those of ICEV
(using hydro or wind power)
 Other burdens:
ambiguous LCA results, also with «clean» electricity and H2, due to:
• burdens from battery and FC manufacturing
• inefficient hydrogen supply chain
 Short-term: Natural gas vehicles show largest potential for reduction of
impacts
 Long-term: electric vehicles need:
• Enough clean electricity
• Recycling strategies for batteries and fuel cells
-19-

20. Thanks to:
• Brian Cox
• Chris Mutel
Contact:
christian.bauer@psi.ch
https://www.psi.ch/ta/
-20-