Characterizing technology opportunities for energy system in transition through rank trajectories

2. Environmental Research Institute
University College Cork
Characterizing technology opportunities
through rank trajectories
Tarun Sharma, Fionn Rogan, Brian Ó Gallachóir
Joint Global Change Research Institute of Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNNL) &
University of Maryland (UMD), USA
71th ETSAP-MEETING | 10th July 2017

3. • Technology criteria for ranking:
• Cost (capital, O&M)
• Emissions
• Resource availability
• Return horizon
• Complementarity (system’s perspective)
• Technology readiness level
• Market pull and technology push factors
• Jobs
• Risk
• Carbon mitigation policy
• Pollutant emissions
• Starting point:
Endogenize cost, resource availability, emissions, return horizon and system’s perspective in energy
model (TIMES): Obtain Rank Trajectories (RT) based on energy shares.
Why rank?
Approach
• Prioritization for timely allocation of limited resources.
How to obtain technology
specific information on all
these criteria?

4. 1
51
101
151
201
251
301
351
401
451
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rankbasedonenergyconsumption
Years
10 Prominent technologies in 2050 - 80% mitigation scenario
CCS Gas (ELC)
HGV Ethanol E10 (TRA)
HGV Biogas (TRA)
Plug-in EV (TRA)
HGV Biofuel DME (TRA)
Gas Condense. Boiler (RES)
CCS Coal (IND)
PV (ELC)
Biomass (ELC)
Buses Ethanol (TRA)

5. Impact
• Scanning technology landscape across timeline and scenarios
• Functionality for generating rank trajectories is scalable both in
size of technology set and number of scenarios
• Ongoing analysis with handles on more than 400 technologies
across 16 scenarios
• Specificity of technological opportunity:
• Onset time: Early movers (Plug-in EV) vs late movers (CCS Gas)
• Diffusion rate: Gradual (PV) vs abrupt (Biomass ELC)

6. Next steps : Quantitative basis for resilience
• How will technology ranks change when
considering contributions to:
• Pollutant emissions
• Energy security
• Job creation
• Value added
• Carbon emission mitigation targets in the range
of 65% to 95%
• Availability of biomass imports
• Use rank variations across scenarios to
characterize technology risks and
resilience which then feeds into multi
criteria assessment of technology
opportunities Electric radiators for commercial heating

7. •Technology criteria:
• Cost
• Emissions
• Resource availability
• Return horizon
• System’s perspective
Next Steps: MCA of technologies
Zeroth
order
criteria
First order criteria:
Derived by quantification of
Rank Trajectory sensitivity
under different scenarios
• Systemic policy risks:
• Carbon mitigation
• Pollutant mitigation
• Incentives for EV
• Preference for energy
security
• Preference for
indigenization

8. QUESTIONS?

9. “Unlocking the potential of our
marine and renewable energy
resources through the power of
research and innovation”

10. Environmental Research Institute
Instiúd Taighde Comshaoil
Energy Policy and Modelling Group
www.ucc.ie/energypolicy