ETSAP-TIAM update and re-calibration

1. ETSAP-TIAM Update and Re-calibration
Workshop Madrid, November 2016
ETSAP-TIAM Regions
AFR Africa
AUS Australia & NZ
CAN Canada
CHI China
CSA Central and South America
EEU Eastern Europe
FSU Former Soviet Union
IND India
JPN Japan
MEA Middle East
MEX Mexico
ODA Other Developing Asia
SKO South Korea
USA United States
WEU Western Europe

2. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 20162
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Building on top of the
ETSAP-TIAM Git version
control project,
- the natural continuation
will be model update and
re-calibration
The update is needed if we
want the shared ETSAP-
TIAM model to be used for
future policy analysis

3. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016
Version controlled ETSAP-TIAM
3
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Version X Version ETSAP-TIAM Master
Review
process
…….…….
Modelling
groups
Version ETSAP-TIAM Developer
Improvements ….

4. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016
What will you push in the running Git project?
4
Team "Push" Timeline
UCC Macro drivers End December 2016
ICL RE cost reduction
scenarios
January 2017
CMA Bio energy potential
scenarios
January 2017
……..

5. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016
Deliverables
1.Workshops involving ETSAP-TIAM users for determining needed
areas to update in the model and e.g., the number of regions
wanted in the model
2.Report with analysis of needed changes in the model
3.Updated data, energy balances, technology SubRES, macroeconomic
outlook and trade matrixes
4.Re-calibration and set up of a VEDA-BE database for results analysis,
and documentation of ETSAP-TIAM. This includes also minimum two
standard scenarios: Reference and a Policy scenario
5

6. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016
Relevance to Annex XIV topics
"Understanding and Facilitating the energy transition to achieve the well below 2OC
goal"
• This calls for an updated and improved global model - A cooperative approach will speed up
the process many times
"Improved modelling of interactions between energy system and economy"
• "Linking" ETSAP-TIAM with CGE models, environmental models, regional models etc. will
need serious improvements of ETSAP-TIAM to make sense
6

7. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016
Budget - 100k€ Period: 2 years
7
Task Task Description Cost (k€)
1. Version control Continue and further develop version control of the
model
3.0
2. Updating data
(10k€ for buying data)*
Energy balances, potentials, reserve values, prices,
demand projections)
24.2
3. Workshop/travel
support
Preparation and organization of workshops coordinating
the needed updates to ETSAP-TIAM, (structure/regions,
etc.) plus possible support to travel costs)
22.5
4. Re-calibration and
scenario setup
Update template structure, new calibration year, update
trade matrix, scenario constraints
41.3
5. Documentation Documentation directly in model files and a getting
started manual
9.0

8. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016
Split of budget in two phases of one year
Part 1 will then consist of the 3 first tasks preparing for the re-
calibration, but also include a first version of the reference and policy
scenario.
Part 2 will mainly be the re-calibration, documentation and final
scenario development.
Project split:
Part 1: 1 year, 45.8k€
Part 2: 1 year, 54.2k€
8

9. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016
Why will it work?
• It has to work - the world need analysis of deep cut scenarios
• Together we are much stronger and the development process can be speeded up many times
- working directly and dynamically together will make the difference
• Linking ETSAP-TIAM with other models, e.g. GTAP will require an improved model
• ETSAP sponsors are interested in an improved and updated ETSAP-TIAM
9