Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIMES-CZ

1. Impacts of Czech brown coal
mines enlargement: assessment
by energy model TIMES-CZ
69TH SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING
Lukáš Rečka lukas.recka@czp.cuni.cz
Cork, 30th May, 2016

2. Agenda
• Motivation
• TIMES-CZ model
• Model Structure
• Scenarios
• Results
• Sensitivity analysis
• Conclusions
• Planned extension of the model

3. Motivation
Gross electricity production by resource and gross electricity consumption in
the Czech Republic in 1993-2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
TWh
Wind
Biogas
Solar
Hydro
Biomass
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Other
Brown coal/lignite
Hard coal
Gross electricity consumption
Source: Eurostat

4. Assess the impacts of possible extension of Czech
brown coal mines on Czech energy system
• 4 scenarios to assess the ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits (TEL)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Planned mining of Brown coal
TEL4
TEL3
TEL2
TEL1
Source: Eurostat

5. TIMES-CZ
Model of the Czech Energy System including the whole energy ballance
• based on Czech region of TIMES-PanEU
• Updated from 2010 to 2012 data
• ETS sectors disagreated on plant level (except Iron and Steel industry)
• Non-ETS sectors as in TIMES-PanEU
• time horizon 2012-2050
• 5 year periods
• ETS sectors: plant-level data of fuel use, emissions and electricity/heat
generated
• District heating partly regionalized
• RES potentials based on State Energy Policy (SEP)
• Reserves of brown coal according to 4 variants of territorial ecological limits
• Capital costs of new technologies based on DIW (2013)
• Fuel cost base on World Energy Outlook 2014

6. PES
BC reserves
BC Imp./Exp.
Electricity
Coke
Districtheat
Nafta
Gasoline
Gas
Steam
Households
BC heating
Gas heating
BM heating
ELC heating
Gas water boiler
District heating
Elc. water boiler
Elc. heat pump
Oil reserves
Oil Import
HC reserves
HC Imp./Exp.
Gas reserves
Gas Import
Biomass
potential
PV, CSP &
thermosolar
potential
Conversion
Sector
Coal processing
Refinery
Heat & Power
generation
Individual ETS sources
Residual heat plants
Nuclear power plants
Residual autoproducers
RES
Electrolysis
Gasisfication
Liquefication
Gas processing
Gas
Biomass
HC
BC
Oil
Wind
Warmwater
Roomheat
Warmwater
Roomheat
Proces.heat
LH2
Commercial
Room heat boilers
Process heat boilers
Warm water boilers
Industry
Transport
Road
Road - freight
Rail - passanger
Rail - freight
Wind
potential
TIMES-CZ Structure

7. Scenarios
1) 4 scenarios based on SEP to assess the ‘breaking’ of the
territorial ecological limits (TEL) only
• Main trends according to State Energy Policy (SEP)
• Electricity production, RES, Nuclear, price of EU ETS - up to 40€/CO2t
2) + Relax assuption on Nuclear
3) + Relax assuption on RES
• RES potentials increased according to RES Chamber
Wind Biomas PV Water
Geother
mal Total
Twh 18.3 22 12.7 2.7 9.7 66

8. 1) Results – Brown coal consumption & mining
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
TEL 3&4 Domestic demand
TEL 2 Domestic demand
TEL 1 Domestic demand
TEL4
TEL3
TEL2
TEL1

9. 1) Results – Electricity production by source
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000 2015
2025
2035
2045
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2025
2035
2045
2020
2030
2040
2050
TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4
GWh
Nuclear
RES
Gas
Brown coal
Hard coal
Other

10. 2) Results – Electricity production by source
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000 2015
2025
2035
2045
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2025
2035
2045
2020
2030
2040
2050
TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4
GWh
Nuclear
RES
Gas
Brown coal
Hard coal
Other

11. 3) Results – Electricity production by source
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000 2015
2025
2035
2045
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2025
2035
2045
2020
2030
2040
2050
TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4
GWh
Nuclear
RES
Gas
Brown coal
Hard coal
Other

12. Sensitivity analysis
• TEL 2 – the selected ‚breaking‘ of TEL
• 3 fuel price assumption sets, 4 EUA price scenarios
• 3 scenarios of nuclear development
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Hardcoal
Naturalgas
Oil
Browncoal-Czech
Browncoal-import
Hardcoal
Naturalgas
Oil
Browncoal-Czech
Browncoal-import
Hardcoal
Naturalgas
Oil
Browncoal-Czech
Browncoal-import
WEO-450 Weighted WEO-Cur-pol.
€/GJ
Fuel price assumptions €/GJ
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
€/tCO2
EUA price scenarios
SEP
WEO-Cur-pol.
WEO-450
Low

13. Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity a)
Nuclear, Brown coal, Water, Wind and PV
Nuclear as SEP
Nuclar - phase out
Dukovany 2027
Nuclear - no new PP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Lignite SEP Water Wind
Lignite WEO-450 Lignite WEO-Cur.Policy Lignite Cur.Policy-low
Lignite EUA-low Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew PV
Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Lignite SEP-NoNew Lignite SEP-NoNew+DU

14. Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity b)
Nuclear as in SEP – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hardcoal SEP Natral gas SEP Bimass & Biogas SEP
Hardcoal WEO-450 Natral gas WEO-450 Bimass & Biogas WEO-450
Hardcoal WEO-Cur.Policy Natral gas WEO-Cur.Policy Bimass & Biogas WEO-Cur.Policy
Hardcoal Cur.Policy-low Natral gas Cur.Policy-low Bimass & Biogas Cur.Policy-low
Hardcoal EUA-low Natral gas EUA-low Bimass & Biogas EUA-low

15. Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity c)
No new Nuclear – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew
Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU
Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU
Hardcoal SEP-NoNew Natral gas SEP-NoNew
Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew Hardcoal SEP-NoNew+DU
Natral gas SEP-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew+DU

16. Conclusions
• ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits does not have
significant affect of Czech energy system
• If SEP assuptions are fullfilled
• If higher installlation of RES is allowed - according to
Czech RES chamber assuption
• Approximately 3 mil. t of brown coal would need to be
imported in case of not ‘breaking’ of the territorial
ecological limits
• RES are at least competetive with nuclear sources at EUA
price at 40€
• Sensitivity analysis shows fuel switch btw Hard coal and
Natural gas

17. Planned extension of the model
 Disaggregate Steel and Iron industry on EU ETS plant level
 Elasticity of demand
 Load curve with higher time resolution - up to hourly profiles
 Electricity storage
 Better regionalization of heat supply and demand