Integrating probabilistic assessment of security of electricity supply into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach

1. Integrating probabilistic electricity security of supply
assessment into long-term energy planning exercises:
an automated-data-linking modeling approach.
Nadia MAÏZI
MINES ParisTech, PSL
Research University,
CMA - Center for Applied
Mathematics.
,The 74rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop
Stuttgart 7-9 November 2018
Jean−Yves BOURMAUD
Marion LI
Réseau de Transport
d’Electricité,
Yacine ALIMOU

2. 2
• Motivations:
– Suitability of existing tools and methodologies for long-term energy planning
– More integrated approach for transition planning
• Objectives:
– Test the ability of a long term model (TIMES) to address short-term reliability
issues (tackled by ANTARES)
– Develop a methodological framework to ensure:
 Cost-effective future plan
 Security of supply requirements
• Target audience:
– Long-term energy planners
– Power system operators
Motivation and scope

3. 3
Energy system model: TIMES-FR
• TIMES-FR: Energy system model for France developed by CMA-Mines ParisTech
• Minimizes total discounted energy system cost  Investment trajectory
• Representation of the power sector within TIMES

4. 4
Energy system model: TIMES-FR
• Time horizon of study 2013-2050, split into 84 annual time-slices

5. 5
ANTARES: a probabilistic tool for power systems
• Probabilistic simulator developed by RTE
• Open source model since July-2018
• Balance between supply and demand for the electrical interconnected system
References

6. 6
ANTARES main results
Exchanges between neighbors are
possible, within the limits of the
network
Foreachscenariostudied,ANTARES
optimizestheunitcommitmentinorderto
satisfythedemandatthelowestcost
Loss of load

7. 7
Approach: an automated-data-linking model
 The linking model is supported by the development of several R packages
ANTARES-FRTIMES-FR
Bridge.1
Feed-back loop
Global outputs
LOLE criterion
*Init: Initialization
Global input database
ANTARES input
Fixed
TIMES input
Fixed
Init* UpdatedUpdated
Bridge.2
• Linking model = Databases + steps

8. Ensuring consistency: Common input data
8
• VRE load factors(correlation with load)
• Technical –economic parameters
• 2030, TIMES power generation portfolio

9. 9
Power dispatch decisions: hourly vs time-slices
Dispatchable
 An over-estimation of the residual load duration curve(and its variability) in TIMES
leads to over-use of semi-base technologies(coal)
Non-dispatchable

10. 10
Shortfall risk analysis: LOLE adequacy metric
 The power generation mix proposed by TIMES for 2030, does not respect the adequacy
requirements (LOLE < 3hours)
𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝐿𝑂𝐿𝐷 = 𝟏𝟏𝟕𝒉,
𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝐿𝑂𝐿𝐷 = 129ℎ,
𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖 𝐿𝑂𝐿𝐷 = 𝟕𝟔𝟏𝒉.

11. 11
Why we have a shortage of supply?
 Energy balance (TIMES) versus power balance (ANTARES)
 Shortage hours occur at the peak of residual load = low VRE power output
 TIMES underestimates the impact of:
 Variability of VRE (climatic conditions)
 Operational constraints of the thermal fleet
 Generation capacity is insufficient to satisfy demand
Example of the median scenario
Chosen lever: capacity credit values

12. 12
Taming TIMES: capacity credit updating
 Updating the capacity credit values over installed technologies has the potential to ensure
the LOLE criterion (LOLE <= 3 hours)
𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 𝑳𝑶𝑳𝑫 = 𝟏𝟏𝟕 𝒉
𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 𝑳𝑶𝑳𝑫 = 𝟐. 𝟔𝟒 𝒉(< 𝟑 𝒉),

13. 13
Generation power mix: optimality question?
 The last iterations activated to satisfy the LOLE criterion require a huge investment
 Initial underestimation of investment cost : 28%
Base year
operating cost +
unsupplied energy cost
+ spilled energy cost

14. 14
• What is new?
– Probabilistic adequacy assessment methodology
– Automated linking approach in contrast with soft-linking approach
– Bi-directional linking exercise(feed-back loops)
• What are the main caveats?
– Electrical interconnections not taken into account
– Need to assess adequacy for all milestone-years, and not only 2030
• Key messages
– The capacity mix proposed by TIMES for 2030 does not meet electricity security of
supply requirements
– Feedback loops between TIMES and ANTARES have the potential to ensure
sufficient firm capacity(supply) to meet demand
– The methodological framework proposed introduces the electricity security of
supply issue into long-term energy planning exercises
Concluding thoughts

15. The 74rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop
Stuttgart 7-9 November 2018
For further information
yacine.alimou@mines-paristech.fr
nadia.maizi@mines-paristech.fr
jean-yves.bourmaud@rte-france.com
marion.li@rte-france.com