_NRES_2023_January_Final_EN_.pdf

Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Project implementation:
Institute for Economic Research and Policy
Consulting
Financial support:
The project is implemented with the financial
support of the European Union
International Renaissance Foundation
Atlas Network
Authors of the report:
Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Project
Manager for the project “Support for the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
The publication was prepared as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs", funded by the European Union and
co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Its content is the responsibility of
the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and does not necessarily represent the position of the European
Union, the Renaissance Foundation, or the ATLAS Network.
INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICY CONSULTING
Reytarska 8/5-А, 01054 Kyiv, Ukraine
tel.: +38(044) 278-63-42; +38 (044) 278-63-60; fax: +38(044) 278-63-36
institute@ier.kyiv.ua
www.ier.com.ua
Facebook IER
Facebook “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Telegram channel “Fair Customs”

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ABOUT THE NEW MONTHLY ENTERPRISES SURVEY “UKRAINIAN BUSINESS IN WARTIME”
Dear ladies and gentlemen, we present you with the ninth issue of the business managers’ monthly survey
“Ukrainian Business in Wartime”.
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the
Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the
enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and
expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts
for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt,
new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business
climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the
business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business
and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements. Where applicable, we will use comparisons with the data from the
quarterly business survey “Business Opinion” that have been conducted since 1998.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war's impact on the production activity of
enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension
in data analysis is used in the issue.
The monthly survey of business managers is a part of a change in the activities of the project “For Fair and
Transparent Customs”, funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance
Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Monthly trends will be presented in reports such as this one.
Quarterly trends will continue to be published in the “Business Survey: Industry” reports, which have been
published by the IER since July 2002.
We are grateful to the analytical system YouControl (https://youcontrol.com.ua/) for the opportunity to use the
data to form a panel sample.

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Content
PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP TO READ THIS REPORT....................................................................... 5
MAIN RESULTS ................................................................................................................................................................. 7
INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD ............................................................................... 11
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE ................................................................................................................... 11
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE COMPARED TO A SIMILAR PERIOD OF THE LAST YEAR............................. 11
EXPANSION PLANS FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS......................................................................................................... 12
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT........................................................................................................................ 13
UNCERTAINTY ............................................................................................................................................................ 13
Half-year expectations........................................................................................................................................... 13
Three-month expectations .................................................................................................................................... 15
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS............................................................. 15
PRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 15
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 15
Expected changes in production............................................................................................................................ 16
SALES.......................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Expected changes in sales...................................................................................................................................... 17
EXPORT....................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Expected changes in export................................................................................................................................... 18
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS ..................................................................................................................................... 18
Expected changes in stocks of raw material.......................................................................................................... 19
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS..................................................................................................................................... 19
Expected changes in stocks of finished goods....................................................................................................... 20
NEW ORDERS ............................................................................................................................................................. 20
Expected changes in new orders ........................................................................................................................... 21
Availability of orders.............................................................................................................................................. 22
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES............................................................................................................................................. 23
Expected changes in account receivables.............................................................................................................. 23
ACCOUNT PAYABLES.................................................................................................................................................. 24

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Expected changes in account payables.................................................................................................................. 24
TAX ARREARS ............................................................................................................................................................. 25
Expected changes in tax arrears ............................................................................................................................ 25
NUMBER OF WORKERS.............................................................................................................................................. 26
Expected changes in the number of workers ........................................................................................................ 26
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE.................................................................................................................................... 27
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave................................................................................ 28
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS........................................................................................................................... 28
Skilled workers....................................................................................................................................................... 29
Unskilled workers................................................................................................................................................... 29
SPECIAL PART OF THE SURVEY....................................................................................................................................... 30
THE IMPACT OF WAR ON ENTERPRISES..................................................................................................................... 30
Challenges for businesses in wartime.................................................................................................................... 30
The war impact on capacity/production volumes................................................................................................. 32
IMPACT OF POWER CUTS........................................................................................................................................... 35
Power cuts: ways to solve the problem..................................................................................................................... 38
THE WAR IMPACT ON THE ENTERPRISES’ EXPORT ACTIVITIES.................................................................................. 39
Main export directions ........................................................................................................................................... 43
Number of trade partners ...................................................................................................................................... 44
GOVERNMENT POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 45
Assessment of government policy to support business ........................................................................................ 45
What will improve the business situation? Expected measures and changes ...................................................... 46
SURVEY METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................ 48
SAMPLE .......................................................................................................................................................................... 48
APPENDIX 1. Survey results in figures............................................................................................................................ 49

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PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP TO READ THIS REPORT
Who do we survey? This survey uses a panel sample; that means we survey the same business entities. Building
such a sample takes time. During the ninth wave of the survey, the answers of 573 respondents were received.
Fig. 1 Number of enterprises surveyed
They include mainly industrial enterprises(94%) located in 22 of the 27 regions of Ukraine: Vinnytsya, Volyn,
Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhya, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa,
Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions and in the
Kyiv city. Enterprises of all sizes in terms of the number of workers are represented among the respondents.
Fig. 2 Number of enterprises surveyed by size
How do we collect data? Data was collected using a combination of several data collection methods: telephone
interviews of business representatives filling out their responses into an online check-list, and, in some cases,
self-completion of the online check-list by representatives of enterprises who expressed their desire during the
previous telephone contact to enter data into the online check-list themselves.
How are our indices calculated? All indices are calculated according to a single methodology. We count
responses as +1 when the company responds that the rate has increased, 0 if it has not changed, and -1 if it has
decreased. For example, if out of 100 respondents, 20 indicated an increase in production, 50 respondents
reported its reduction, and 30 said that everything remained unchanged, the corresponding value of the index
will be -0.30. A positive (negative) index value means that the share of enterprises where production has
increased is larger (smaller) than the number of those where production has decreased. Each index bigger than
+0.05 or less than -0.05 is statistically significant, and different from zero with a 5% error probability.
How to "read" our indicators? Our indicators are called "indices," which is a synonym of the term "balance
index" or "balance indicator." All indices are the difference between the shares of respondents who reported a
decrease and those who reported an increase in the indicator. The bigger the index value, the bigger the rate of
indicator growth; the smaller the index value, the bigger the rate of indicator decline.
For most indicators, a higher value of the index means a positive trend, except for indicators of debts, the
number of workers on forced leave, and difficulties in finding personnel. Everything is the opposite here. The
larger the index, the greater the rate of debt growth or the increase in the number of people on forced leave

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and hardships (this is bad), the smaller the index, the greater the rate of debt reduction, the decrease in the
number of people on forced leave or hardships (this is good).
When the survey was conducted? The field stage of the ninth wave lasted from January 16 to 31, 2023. The
enterprises' managers compared the results of work in January 2023 with December 2022, assessed the state of
the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six
months, depending on the question. For some questions (where it was indicated), the results of the work were
compared to ones in the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). Respondents gave forecasts for the next
three months of work.

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MAIN RESULTS
The enterprises' plans for the next two years remain optimistic while uncertainty for the long-term horizon
increased. Estimates of the current situation at both the country and enterprise levels are improving for the
second month in a row. Short-term production expectations have also improved. The uncertainty level in six-
and three months continues to decline, and expectations for six months are improving two months in a row.
Electricity, water, and heat supply outages remain the number one problem, with a slight decrease in the
percentage. The average time expenditure due to electricity cuts was 23% of working hours in December.
Businesses have temporarily suspended work due to power outages but improved the level of providing
independent power sources. The restoration of export activity has improved after four months of stagnation.
The sharpest obstacles to exports are queues at the border, maritime blockades, and complex customs
formalities. Many exporters still cannot refocus from the CIS markets and find new partners. State's economic
policy assessments have become less negative and more neutral.
OVERALL INDICATORS OF BUSINESS CLIMATE AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
• For the second month, there is a trend to improve business activity, as evidenced by the increase in the
value of the index of the CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX from -0.24 in December 2022 to -0.14 in January
2023.
• The enterprises' expectations regarding changes in the business activity in the six months are improved;
the value of the corresponding index increased from 0.01 to 0.15.
• Assessments of the overall economic environment remain lower than the estimates of the business
activity, but there is also a trend to improve; in January compared to December, the value of the OVERALL
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT INDEX increased from -0.28 to -0.20.
• Expectations for changes in the overall economic environment have also improved after six months. The
EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT INDEX increased from 0.01 to 0.11.
• The two-year expectations for the expanding business activity are also positive; the value of the INDEX OF
EXPECTED CHANGES IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY in two years in January, compared to December, slightly increased
from 0.21 to 0.24.
• The uncertainty level remains high for the long term, and in January, there is an increase in value; at the
same time, for the six- and three-month horizons for several months in a row, a gradual decrease in
value is recorded.
PRODUCTION
• In January 2023, compared to December 2022, the rate of decline in production slowed down. Although
the PRODUCTION INDEX remained negative, it increased from -0.14 to -0.04.
• Enterprises' expectations for the next three months show an increase in the indicator for the second
month in a row. The value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN PRODUCTION VOLUMES increased significantly
from 0.23 in December to 0.33 in January.
DEMAND AND SALES
• The situation with demand and sales is improving, and the pace of sales and the number of new orders
reduction have accelerated. The value of the SALES INDEX increased from -0.14 to -0.02 in January 2023,
and the value of the NEW ORDERS INDEX increased from -0.05 to 0.02, changing the sign to the positive.
• Business expectations for future demand have also improved. The value of both THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN
THE SALES INDEX and the EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE NEW ORDERS INDEX increased, respectively, from 0.24 to
0.32 and from 0.29 to 0.33.
DEBTS
• In January, there was a sharp reduction in indicators for all debt compared to December. The value of
receivables decreased for the fourth month in a row, and in January, the index decreased from -0.05 to -

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0.25. At the same time, after a slight slowdown, the rate of reduction of accounts payables (from -0.05
to -0.26) and tax arrears (from -0.10 to -0.28) accelerated.
• In the three-month, the business expects further debt reduction. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN
RECEIVABLES decreased from -0.19 to -0.29, the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN ACCOUNTS PAYABLE decreased
from -0.17 to -0.30, and the tax arrears rate decreased from -0.16 to -0.28.
EMPLOYMENT
• The dynamics of changes in employment indicators show minor changes in the labor market.
• The pace of employment reduction at enterprises for three months in a row remains without significant
changes, and THE NUMBER OF WORKERS INDEX has decreased slightly, from -0.08 to -0.09.
• In the next three months, businesses expect a slight increase in the employment rate; the INDEX OF THE
EXPECTED CHANGES for the second month in a row gradually increases and is 0.04 (it was zero).
• The trend to reduce workers on forced leave has slowed down, and the indicators remain almost
unchanged for the third month in a row. The value of the corresponding index in January increased
slightly from -0.20 to -0.18 compared to December. In the next three months, businesses expect to slow
down the process (the index increased from -0.28 to -0.26).
• There is an increase in the difficulty of finding skilled workers (the value increased from 0.12 to 0.19). At
the same time, the index of finding unskilled workers is almost unchanged and is equal to 0.06 (it was
0.05 in December).
AVAILABILTY OF ORDERS
• In January 2023, the enterprises were provided with orders for an average of three months. It is more
than in November and December 2022, when this period was two months on average.
• In January, the share of businesses provided with orders for three months or more increased.
OBSTACLES TO DOING BUSINESS IN WARTIME
• In January 2023, the two major business problems remained unchanged: power outages and price rises.
Businesses reported each of them as often as in December 2022.
• The third place was shared by the difficulty transporting raw materials or goods throughout the territory
of Ukraine and danger for work. At the same time, businesses said that it was unsafe to work in January
less often than in November and December 2022, but still more often than in the summer and autumn
of 2022.
PRODUCTION CAPACITIES DURING THE WAR PERIOD
• In January, businesses remained resistant to Russian terrorist attacks, but production recovery was not
intense. Only 47% of respondents worked at full and higher than the full capacity in January (as in
November and December).
• Despite the power cuts and missile shelling, only 3% of the respondents (also 3% in December) do not
operate, and only 5% of enterprises (also 5% in December) work for less than 25% of the capacity.
• Industries that provide basic human needs continue to overcome the hardships of war best. 62% of the
food industry and 46% of the light industry work at almost full and full capacity.
• Micro-enterprises remain more sensitive to the war, so they work at low capacity, although there is a
slight recovery. If, in December, 21% of micro-enterprises operated at 100% or more compared to pre-
war capacity, then, in January, there were 25% of them.
EXPORTING ENTERPRISES
• 58% of respondents reported they were exporters at the beginning of 2022.
• The export activity recovery improved slightly: the share of enterprises that stopped exporting after
February 24, 2022, and could not resume it, fell to a record low of 10%. Thus, for the first time, positive
trends in the export activity recovery were recorded after four months of stagnation.

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• In January, the positive trend toward recovery of export volumes continued. The value of the export
index increased compared to the previous month from -0.11 to -0.08. It happened, first of all, due to the
increase in the share of respondents for whom export volumes increased (from 13.7% in December to
16.6% in January). However, for 55.0% of exporters, export volumes did not change (58.8% in
December).
• Despite the positive trends regarding the current export changes, expectations remain almost at the
previous month's level. The index of expected changes in exports rose from 0.23 in December to 0.24 in
January. It is the best result in all waves of the survey. The share of enterprises planning to increase
exports increased (from 27.3% in December to 33.4% in January), but the share of those planning to
reduce exports also increased (from 6.8% in December to 10.9% in January).
• Despite the overall improvement for all businesses, the situation remains difficult for micro-enterprises.
In January, every second (47%) micro-enterprise stopped and could not resume exports (in December, it
was also 47%).
• The top three obstacles to exports in January did not change compared to September. The main
problems for exporters in January are the queues at the western borders of Ukraine. It was indicated by
54% of respondents in September (60% in September). 38% mentioned the impossibility of exporting by
sea (in September 44%), and 30 % indicated complex customs formalities (in September 40%). In
addition, corruption at Ukrainian customs became four times more important in January compared to
May (19% in January versus 16% in September and 5% in May).
• The European Union is the main export destination for Ukrainian businesses (76% of respondents in
January). But the importance of other destinations is also increasing, in particular Turkey (from 5% in
September to 14% in January) and Moldova (from 28% to 30%). At the same time, trade with the
countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, except for Russia, is also being restored (13% in September
to 24% in January).
• The majority of exporters have a "narrow" export geography. Every second enterprise (54%) exports to
2-5 countries, and every fifth (21%) export to only one. Compared to September, the share of
enterprises that export to 11 or more countries has hardly changed (10% in January versus 11% in
September).
POWER CUTS EFFECT
• In December 2022, the problem of power cuts affected a larger share of enterprises compared to
November. The majority of enterprises (89%) temporarily suspended work due to outages (82% in
November), and only 5% of enterprises did not face them (14% in November).
• On average, enterprises lost 23% of the total amount of working time for the month due to the
disconnection of electricity in December, which is slightly higher compared to November (21%).
• Enterprises were able to minimize the loss of time during power outages. For example, 6% of
enterprises worked all the time without power, and 30% did not work only 1-10% of the working time
(respectively, 4% and 31% in November).
• In December, 11% of companies did not work more than half of the time (51 - 100%) due to power cuts,
which is almost twice as much as in November, which reflects a slight worsening of the situation.
• Micro businesses remain less able to deal with power cuts. As a result, on average, micro-enterprises
lost the most working time - 33% in December (31% in November). For comparison, in December, time
losses were 27% for small, 18% for medium, and 22% for large enterprises.
• Industries that provide the basic needs for the population lost, on average, the least working time due
to power outages - 18% food (18% during the previous wave) and 25% light industry (19%). The
situation significantly worsened in the printing industry, where losses almost doubled - from 15% in
November to 28% in December.
• As of the second half of January 2022, 79% of enterprises reported they had installed independent
sources of electricity supply (74% in the previous month). At the same time, larger businesses install

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such additional power sources more often than micro and small businesses possibly due to better
financial capacity.
GOVERNMENT POLICY
• In January 2023, businesses mostly neutrally assessed the government policy on business support: 53%
of respondents made such assessments. This share has slightly increased compared to the previous
month.
• At the same time, negative assessments became somewhat rarer: 15% in January 2023 compared to
18% in December 2022.
• The frequency of positive assessments has not changed: 21%, but for the third month in a row, it is
more than in June-October 2022.
• The most expected events and changes for business in January 2023 are the end of the war, the
reduction of taxes and excises, and the program of affordable loans for businesses.

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INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE
In January 2023, compared to December 2022, enterprises' assessments of their business activity improved
for the second month in a row. In January, the INDEX OF CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY increased from -0.24 to -0.14. It
happened due to a decrease in the share of respondents who assessed the current business activity at the
enterprise as bad, from 31.4% to 26.6%. At the same time, the share of those who positively assessed the
business activity at the enterprise increased from 4.8% to 7.6 %. The share of respondents who consider the
business activity at the enterprise to be satisfactory increased from 63.8% to 65.7%.
Six months' expectations also significantly improved; the value of the INDEX OF THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN BUSINESS
ACTIVITY increased from 0.01 to 0.15. At the same time, the share of "pessimists" decreased from 22.8% to
14.9%, while the share of "optimists" increased from 22.1% to 28.6%. The share of those who do not expect any
changes has changed slightly and is 54.5% (it was 55.0%).
The share of respondents who could not give a forecast regarding changes in the business activity at the
enterprise for the six months is gradually decreasing for the third month in a row and is 40.8% (it was 42.1%).
Fig. 3. Business activity at the enterprise, indices
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE COMPARED TO A SIMILAR PERIOD OF THE LAST
YEAR
A comparison of the company's business activity with the same period last year shows further economic
decline. The value of the CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (YEAR TO YEAR) in January compared to December
decreased from -0.68 to -0.76. The share of respondents who indicated the worsening of the situation increased
from 77.1% to 80.3%. At the same time, the share of those who consider the business activity to be the same as
last year decreased from 20.2% to 17.4%. And the share of respondents whose business activity has improved
has changed slightly and amounts to 2.4% (it was 2.5% in December).
Size. The current business activity is bad regardless of the size of the enterprise. But, compared to last year,
large (-0.66) and micro (-0.78) enterprises feel somewhat better, compared to the last year; the business activity
is worse for medium-sized enterprises (-0.83) and small (-0.82) companies.
Region. Regional differences are significant. Poltava region has the highest indicator, the value of which is zero.
Indicators of all other regions have a negative value. Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv regions have the
worst indicators (-1.00 each).
-0,36
-0,32
-0,20
-0,22
-0,09
-0,16
-0,33
-0,24
-0,14
0,07
0,15
0,12
0,03
0,11
-0,09
-0,18
0,01
0,15
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Business activity at the enterprise Expected business activity at the enterprise

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Sector. In terms of industries, the value of the index is negative for all groups. The highest index value was
recorded for metalworking (-0.61) and machine building (-0.67). The construction materials production (-0.93),
printing (-0.92), and chemical (-0.96) industries have the worst indicators.
Fig. 4. How do you assess the business activity at the enterprise compared to last year?, % of respondents
EXPANSION PLANS FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS
Expectations regarding business activity for the next six months remain positive, and the indicator slightly
increased compared to December. The percentage of those planning to expand in the next two years increased
slightly, from 30.4% in December to 31.6% in January, after declining for two consecutive months. At the same
time, the share of those who plan to reduce their activities decreased from 9.3% to 7.5% in January. And the
share of those who plan to stay at the current level remained almost unchanged and is 60.8% (it was 60.4% in
December). The index of expected changes in business activity in the two-year horizon increased from 0.21 to
0.24.
It is important to note that the number of those who could not give a forecast for such a distant period
increased from 51.9% to 56% in January after a slight decrease in December.
Fig. 5. Do you plan to expand the company's activities in the next two years?, % of respondents
Size. Among enterprises of all sizes, the most optimistic about the future are micro-enterprises, whose indicator
is 0.32. The index values for large (0.26), medium (0.23), and small (0.21) companies are approximately in the
same range.
77,1
20,2
2,7
80,3
17,4
2,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Worse The same Better
Dec.22 Jan.23
30,4
60,4
9,3
51,9
31,6
60,8
7,5
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Yes, I'm planning to
extend
Planning to stay at the
current level
Planning to lower
activity
It's hard to predict
Dec.22 Jan.23

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Region. Significant regional differences were registered. There is a group of areas with a predominance of
positive expectations and, conversely, groups with negative expectations. Poltava (1.00) and Chernihiv (0.83)
regions have the highest expectations. Three regions have a negative indicator: Rivne (-0.08), Dnipropetrovsk (-
0.11), and Zhytomyr (-0.27).
Sector. Expectations vary by sector. Indicators of chemical (0.40) and printing (0.33) industries have the highest
indicator of expectations. The indicator for construction materials production is the only one with a negative
value (-0.22).
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
The assessment of the overall economic environment, as well as the business activity at the enterprise, has
improved. The value of the corresponding INDEX increased in January compared to December from -0.28 to -
0.20. It happened due to a simultaneous decrease in the share of those who rate the overall economic
environment as bad (from 34.2% to 30.0%) and an increase in the share of those who give positive assessments
(from 3.2% to 4.5%). The share of those who consider the overall economic environment to be satisfactory also
increased (from 62.6% to 65.5%).
Companies' forecasts regarding changes in the overall economic environment for the next six months also
improved: the value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT increased significantly,
from 0.01 to 0.11. The share of "optimists" regarding changes in the overall economic environment increased
only slightly, from 23.3% to 25.5%, while the share of "pessimists" significantly decreased, from 23.3% to 16.8%.
The share of those who believe the overall economic environment will not change in the next six months
increased from 53.3% to 57.7%.
The share of those who could not give forecasts about the overall economic environment decreased from 43.4%
to 42.9%.
Fig. 6. Overall economic environment, indices
UNCERTAINTY
Half-year expectations
For the third month in a row, the level of uncertainty in the forecasts of both the business activity at the
enterprise and the overall economic environment is gradually decreasing. The share of respondents who could
not give a forecast of the changes in the business activity at the enterprise in six months decreased from 42.1%
to 40.8%, and the overall economic environment in the country - from 43.4% to 42.9%.
-0,54
-0,44
-0,37
-0,28
-0,20
-0,31
-0,34
-0,28
-0,20
0,01
0,16
0,09
0,01
0,12
-0,12
-0,23
0,01
0,11
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
Current overall economic environment
Expected overall economic environment

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Fig. 7. The level of the business activity and the overall economic environment uncertainty, % of respondents
The level of uncertainty regarding the business activity at the enterprise and its dynamics depends on the
enterprise's size. In December, the uncertainty index increased for micro (from 33% to 36%) and small (from
46% to 52%) enterprises. At the same time, for medium-sized enterprises, the indicator of uncertainty about
business activity decreased from (45% to 43%). And for large enterprises, the indicator of uncertainty increased
the least and decreased compared to December from 36% to 26%.
Fig. 8. The share of respondents unable to answer the question about the change in the business activity in six months
Uncertainty about the overall economic environment, as for business activity, depends on the size of the
enterprise. At the same time, the indicator slightly increased only for small enterprises. The level of
uncertainty is lower for large (percentage decreased from 32% to 31%) and small (the percentage decreased
from 38% to 37%) enterprises; the indicator for medium-sized enterprises decreased from 47% to 46%. The
percentage for small businesses increased slightly, from 50% to 51%.
Fig. 9. The share of respondents unable to answer the question regarding the change in the overall economic environment in the six
months
45,0% 43,3%
31,4%
29,0% 34,4%
45,9% 43,8%
42,1%
40,8%
47,7%
43,6%
33,9%
33,2%
36,7%
49,8% 47,7%
43,4% 42,9%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
No answer on business activity in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
33
41 44
52
54
35
29
22
34 30 29 25
51
36
31 31
39
50
41
52
43
52
46
30
33
46 45
36
36
52
43
26
0
20
40
60
80
Micro Small Medium Large
35
48
43
46
48
41
30
26
38 37
31 30
51
42
33 31
47
50 51 48
53
57
46
37
38
50
47
32
37
51
46
31
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70

15
Three-month expectations
In the three-month horizon, there is also a decrease in uncertainty for almost all indicators. Uncertainty for
debts is still the highest, although the value has decreased for the second month in a row. The indicators of
tax arrears (from 33.0% to 22.9%), receivables (from 35.0% to 23.7%), and payables (from 35.4% to 23.2%)
decreased the most. The lowest level of uncertainty remains for exports, where the percentage decreased from
10.2% to 8.4%.
Fig. 10. The share of enterprises unable to forecast the change of the indicator in three months, % of respondents
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM
EXPECTATIONS
PRODUCTION
Changes compared to the previous month
In January, compared to December, the situation with production improved, as evidenced by the growth of
the index after a two-month layoff. The PRODUCTION INDEX INCREASED from -0.14 to -0.04. It happened due to a
decrease in the share of enterprises where production decreased from 32.2% to 28.0% and a simultaneous
increase in the share of those enterprises that increased production volumes from 14.0% to 19.8%. At the same
time, the share of industries where there were no changes changed only slightly and is 52.2% (it was 53.8% in
December 2022).
Size. A significant difference between enterprises of different sizes was recorded. Medium (0.01) and large
(0.02) enterprises, for which the index is the highest and positive, felt the best. The index value for small
enterprises is -0.17. The worst situation is for micro-enterprises, whose index is -0.36.
Region. Regional differences are significant (the highest value is 1.00, and the smallest is -0.64). The best results
were obtained by enterprises of Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.66), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45), and Kyiv (0.43) regions. The
lowest index values were recorded for enterprises in Kharkiv (-0.64), Zakarpattya, Vinnytsya (-0.57 each), and
Sumy (-0.53) regions.
Sector. Index values vary across sectors and industries. The best situation is in the printing (0.17) and food (0.15)
industries. Indicators of other industries are negative, and the construction materials production (-0.50) and
woodworking industry (-0.54) have the lowest index values.

16
Fig. 11. Indices of changes in production
Expected changes in production
The indicator of enterprises' production plans for the next three months is growing for the second month in a
row. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN PRODUCTION increased from 0.23 to 0.33. The share of enterprises planning
to increase production grew from 32.1% to 39.4% in January, while the share of those planning to reduce
production decreased from 11.7% to 39.4%. The share of those who do not expect changes decreased from
56.3% to 51.7%.
Size. Production expectations depend on the size of the enterprises. The highest is the indicator of large
enterprises and is 0.39. The indicator of small (0.32) and medium (0.30)companies is approximately the same.
Microenterprises have the lowest expectations for production volumes, the index of which is 0.06.
Region. Enterprise plans depend significantly on the region of location. Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.97), Ivano-
Frankivsk (0.95), and Ternopil (0.89) regions have the most optimistic plans for the growth of production
volumes. Kharkiv (-0.27), Khmelnytskyy (-0.14), Kirovohrad (-0.11), and Cherkasy (-0.10) regions have the lowest
expectations.
Sector. Production expectations for three months depend on the industry. The highest indicators are for food
(0.41), light industry (0.40), and woodworking (0.22) industry. The construction materials production industry
has the lowest and only negative indicator of expectations - -0.09.
SALES
In January, the rate of sales DECLINE continued to slow; the indicator increased and almost approached zero,
although it remains negative. The SALES INDEX increased from -0.14 to -0.02. It became possible due to a
decrease in the share of enterprises that decreased sales from 32.6% to 27.3% and a simultaneous increase in
those enterprises that increased sales from 15.1% to 20.5%. At the same time, the share of enterprises where
there were no changes in January remained almost unchanged and amounted to 52.2% (it was 52.3% in
December).
Size The SALES INDEX for medium (0.02) and large (0.05) enterprises is about the same and the highest. The
indicator of medium-sized enterprises is -0.18, and the lowest value for micro-enterprises is -0.34.
Region. The highest value of the sales index was recorded for Poltava (0.94), Lviv (0.66), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45)
regions, and Kyiv (0.33). The lowest indicator is in Zakarpattya (-0.57), Kharkiv (-0.50), Sumy (-0.47), and
Khmelnytskyy (-0.42) regions.
-0,55
-0,30
-0,12
-0,09
0,05
-0,03
-0,13 -0,14
-0,04
0,12
0,22 0,24
0,20
0,32
0,17
0,04
0,23
0,33
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
Production Production exp.

17
Sector. The food (0.20) and printing (0.17) industries have the highest SALES INDEX with a positive value. The
lowest value is for metalworking, construction materials production (-0.44), and the woodworking industry (-
0.61).
Expected changes in sales
Sales expectations increase for the second month in a row. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN SALES in January
compared to December increased from 0.24 to 0.32. The share of respondents who plan to increase sales
volumes in the next three months increased from 32.7% to 39.6%, while the share of those who expect them to
decrease decreased from 12.1% to 10.7%. At the same time, the percentage of respondents who believe
nothing will change has significantly decreased, from 55.2% to 49.7%.
Size. Representatives of large enterprises (0.37) have the highest expectations. The indicator of medium (0.32)
and small (0.29) enterprises is approximately the same. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the only one with a
negative value and is -0.02.
Region. The best expectations were recorded in Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.97), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.95), and Ternopil
(0.89) regions. On the other hand, in Sumy (-0.28), Vinnytsya (-0.18), Kharkiv (-0.17), and Kirovohrad (-0.11)
regions, the indicator of expectations regarding sales volumes is the lowest.
Sector. The food industry (0.41), light industry (0.04), and woodworking (0.22) industry have the highest sales
expectations. Machine building and construction materials production have the lowest negative expectations
index (-0.09 for each sector).
Fig. 12. Indices of changes in sales
EXPORT
In January, the rate of export growth continued its gradual acceleration. The value of the EXPORT INDEX
increased from -0.11 to -0.08. The share of respondents whose export volumes decreased in January compared
to December remained almost unchanged at 28.4% (it was 28.0%). At the same time, the share of enterprises
that increased export increased slightly, from 13.7% to 16.6%. And the share of companies whose export
volumes did not change shortened from 58.8% to 55.0%.
Size. The highest and approximately the same value of the export index is for large (-0.02) and medium (-0.05)
enterprises. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.31. The lowest is the indicator for micro-enterprises - -0.41.
Region. Lviv (0.90), Poltava (0.61), and Ivano-Frankivsk (0.50) regions have the highest indicators. The lowest
value is for Sumy (-1.00) and Zakarpattya (-0.64) regions.
-0,48
-0,36
-0,16
-0,09
0,01
-0,03
-0,14 -0,14
-0,02
0,11
0,23 0,23 0,20
0,33
0,19
0,04
0,24
0,32
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
Sales Sales exp.

18
Sector. The food industry EXPORT INDEX (0.17) is the highest and has the only positive value. The indicators of all
other sectors have a negative value, and the lowest values are for the woodworking industry (-0.50) and
construction materials production (-0.62).
Expected changes in export
For the next three months, entrepreneurs do not expect significant changes in exports. The value of the INDEX
OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN EXPORT has changed slightly and is 0.24 (it was 0.23). The share of companies planning to
increase exports increased from 27.3% to 33.4%, while the share of those planning to decrease exports
increased from 6.8% to 10.9%. The share of those who do not expect any changes decreased from 65.9% to
55.6%.
Size. Large enterprises have the best export expectations (0.30). The indicator of small and medium-sized
enterprises is the same and is 0.21. Micro-enterprises, whose index is 0.04, have the lowest indicator of
expectations regarding export changes.
Region: The enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil (1.00 for each), Poltava (0.83), and Lviv (0.80) regions have
the highest value of the index of expected export changes. The worst are the expectations of business
representatives of the Sumy region (-1.00) and the city of Kyiv (-0.36).
Sector. The light (0.33) and food industries (0.29) have the highest value of the index of expected changes in
exports. Indicators for the machine building (-0.13) and printing (-0.17) industries have the lowest and negative
values.
Fig. 13. Indices of changes in export
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS
For the second month in a row, the reduction rate in raw material stocks shows a gradual acceleration, as
evidenced by the increase in the value of THE RAW MATERIALS STOCKS INDEX from -0.15 in December to -0.10. The
share of respondents who reported an increase in raw material stocks over the past month increased from
10.2% to 16.0%. At the same time, the share of respondents who indicated its reduction increased only slightly,
from 27.7% to 28.4%. The share of entrepreneurs for whom nothing changed compared to last month
decreased from 62.1% to 55.6%.
Size. The STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS INDEX is the highest and approximately the same for medium (-0.06) and large
(-0.09) enterprises. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.14. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the lowest
and is -0.37.
-0,42
-0,48
-0,31
-0,24 -0,21
-0,15 -0,18
-0,11 -0,08
0,07
0,11 0,14 0,12
0,22
0,13
0,00
0,23 0,24
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
Export Export exp.

19
Region. Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.69), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45), Rivne (0.33), and Odesa (0.31) regions have the
highest indicators. The indicators of Kyiv (-0.70), Kharkiv (-0.67), and Cherkasy (-0.52) regions have the lowest
values.
Sector. The food industry, whose indicator is equal to zero, has the highest value of the indicator. Indicators of
all other industries are negative, and the lowest value is recorded for the woodworking industry, construction
materials production(-0.37 for each), and metalworking (-0.35).
Expected changes in stocks of raw material
For the next three months, the entrepreneurs surveyed expect a further increase in the indicator: the INDEX OF
EXPECTED CHANGES IN RAW MATERIALS increased significantly from 0.19 to 0.24, which, like last time, became the
highest indicator for the entire period of the survey. The number of respondents who expect raw material
stocks to increase increased from 30.4% to 34.3%, while the share of those who believe that raw material stocks
will decrease remained almost unchanged at 23.3% in January (12.8% in December). The share of those who
believe that the situation will not change decreased from 56.7% to 53.3%.
Size. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN RAW MATERIALS is approximately the same for large (0.27), medium (0.24),
and small (0.23) enterprises. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the lowest and the only one with a negative
value of -0.05.
Region. Lviv (0.97), Poltava (0.94), Lviv (0.90), and Ternopil (0.89) regions have the highest INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN RAW MATERIALS. The lowest value of the index is for the city of Kyiv (-0.60), Sumy (-0.38), Kharkiv, and
Vinnytsia (-0.25 for each) regions.
Sector. The food (0.34) and light industries (0.33) have the highest indicator of expectations regarding changes
in raw material stocks. The woodworking industry (-0.04) and machine building (-0.18) have negative indicators
of expectations.
Fig. 14. Indices of changes in stocks of raw materials
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS
The pace of decline in finished goods stocks slowed down after reducing for three consecutive months. The
value of the corresponding index in January compared to December remained unchanged and is -0.40. In the
percentage distribution, the share of respondents who reported a decrease in stocks of finished goods
decreased from 48.6% to 44.9%, and the share of those respondents whose stocks increased fell from 7.6% to
4.3%). The share of respondents who did not feel any changes increased from 43.8% to 50.9%.
-0,62
-0,41
-0,29
-0,16
-0,01
-0,12
-0,19
-0,15
-0,10
0,01 0,00
0,15
0,06
0,17
0,00 -0,02
0,19
0,24
-0,70
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
Stocks of raw materials Stocks of raw materials exp.

20
Size. Depending on the enterprise size, the value of the index also changes; it is the highest for micro-
enterprises and is -0.28. The indicator of large enterprises is -0.34, and of medium-sized enterprises - -0.42. The
indicator of small enterprises is the lowest and amounts to -0.48.
Region. The value of the index depends on the region. Among the enterprises, the Poltava region has the
highest index value; its indicator is zero. The values for Kyiv (-0.03) and Dnipropetrovsk (-0.05) regions are
negative but close to zero.
Sector. All sectors have negative values, but the lowest values are for woodworking (-0.50) and light industry (-
0.53), and the highest values are for the chemical industry (-0.25) and machine building (-0. 31).
Expected changes in stocks of finished goods
In the future, entrepreneurs expect a slight decrease in the indicator. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN STOCKS OF
FINISHED GOODS decreased from -0.27 to -0.30. The share of respondents who believe that stocks of finished
goods will decrease in the next three months has decreased from 36.9% to 34.3%, while the share of those who
expect them to increase has almost halved, from 7.3% to 3.8 %. The percentage of those who believe that
nothing will change has increased from 55.8% to 61.9%.
Size. The value of the indicator depends on the size of the enterprise. The indicator is higher for large micro-
enterprises (-0.21). The indicator is approximately the same for medium (-0.28) and large (-0.29) enterprises. For
small enterprises, the index value is the lowest and is -0.39.
Region. Khmelnytskyy (0.25), Zhytomyr (0.05), and Kyiv (0.03) regions have the highest indicator of
expectations. The indicator of the Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv regions is zero. The indicator of
expectations for all other regions has a negative value, but it is the lowest for Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00), Lviv (-
0.93), and Ternopil (-0.84) regions.
Sector. The value of the index for the woodworking industry (-0.05) is the highest. Indicators of food (-0.39),
printing (-0.33), and light industry (-0.32) are the lowest.
Fig. 15. Indices of changes in stocks of finished goods
NEW ORDERS
The dynamics of new orders increased for the second month in a row, and the indicator changed from
negative to positive. The NEW ORDERS INDEX increased from -0.05 to 0.02 in January compared to December due
to an increase in the share of those with an increase in the number of new orders, from 16.8% to 19.0%. At the
-0,33
-0,17
-0,29
-0,13
-0,03
-0,23
-0,34
-0,40 -0,40
-0,08
-0,12
-0,09
-0,11
0,07
-0,16
-0,36
-0,27
-0,30
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
Stocks of finished goods Stocks of finished goods exp.

21
same time, the share of those who reported a decrease in the number of new orders in January decreased from
26.8% to 21.2%. The share of those who did not feel any changes increased from 56.5% to 59.8%.
Size. The value of the index is the highest for large enterprises and amounts to 0.13. Medium-sized enterprises
also have a positive value of the indicator (0.03). The indicator of small enterprises is -0.07. The lowest is the
value of micro-enterprises - -0.35.
Region. The new orders grew the most in Poltava (0.72), Lviv (0.69), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45) regions, and Kyiv city
(0.42), while in Sumy (-0.47), Khmelnytskyy (-0.45), Vinnytsya (-0.21) and Kyiv (-0.31) regions there was the
largest decrease in new orders.
Sector. The best situation with new orders in the previous month was for food (0.17), printing (0.08), and light
industries (0.02), whose indicators have a positive value. The woodworking industry (0.32) and construction
materials production (-0.39) have the lowest indicators.
Expected changes in new orders
The growth rate of new orders is expected to accelerate. The value of THE INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN NEW
ORDERS increases for the second month in a row and is 0.33 (it was 0.29). The share of businesses expecting an
increase in new orders increased from 37.0% to 39.6%. At the same time, the share of respondents who believe
the number of orders will decrease decreased from 10.7% to 9.4%. The share of those not expecting any
changes in the next three months decreased from 52.3% to 51.0%.
Size. The expectation index is the highest for large enterprises and is 0.40. The indicator is approximately the
same for medium (0.33) and small (0.32) enterprises. The indicator of expectations for micro-enterprises is the
only one with a negative value: -0.08.
Region. Index values have significant regional differences. In the Ivano-Frankivsk (1.00), Lviv (0.97), Ternopil
(0.89), Poltava (0.78), and Odesa (0.73) regions, businesses expect an increase in new orders. However, the
indicators of Sumy (-0.41), Cherkasy (-0.10), Kharkiv (-0.09), and Khmelnytskyy (-0.08) regions are the lowest and
have negative values.
Sector. Light (0.46) and food (0.44) industries have the best expectations for new orders. Indicators of
construction materials production (-0.09) and machine building (-0.15) have negative values and are the lowest.
Fig. 16. Indices of changes in new orders
-0,52
-0,30
-0,19
-0,02
0,01
-0,03
-0,11
-0,05
0,02
0,10
0,19
0,25 0,23
0,34
0,21
0,15
0,29
0,33
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
New orders New orders exp.

22
Availability of orders
In January 2023, the average period for new order availability for surveyed companies increased to three
months from two months in November and December 2022 (median value). In addition, there were some
changes in the pattern of responses compared to the previous two months when businesses answered this
question.
For example, in January 2023, the highest share of businesses with orders for a slightly longer period of time -
for 3-5 months (26%) and 6-11 months (18%) - was recorded during the entire survey period. On the other hand,
companies rarely say about having orders for only 1-2 months (37%). The share of those with orders for a very
short period – up to one month – fell to 11% after rising to 16% in December 2023.
8% of enterprises have new orders for a year or more. This share remained roughly at the level of December
2022 after decreasing from 13% in November 2022. 7% of companies among the entire sample did not answer
this question. This share includes non-working enterprises.
Fig. 17. Period for which enterprises are provided with orders (% of respondents)
Size. The period for which enterprises are provided with orders increases with the increase in their size. Micro-
enterprises are provided with orders for the shortest period - only one month on average (median value).
Among them, the largest share of those who have orders for a period of only up to two months is 70%. As of
January 2023, the average term for order availability for small enterprises increases to two months, for medium-
sized enterprises - to three, and for large enterprises - to four months. More than 30% of medium-sized large
enterprises are provided with orders for half a year or more.
Sector. In January 2023, the longest average term of new orders was recorded in the machine building industry:
at an average of 3.5 months (median value)1
. Here, 34% of enterprises are provided with orders for a period of
six months or more. For comparison, among other industries, the share of enterprises with orders for such a
period does not exceed 29%. The shortest average term of new orders is in the construction materials
production industry; it was only one month. Among the construction materials producers, the largest share of
enterprises - 63% - was recorded, which reported they were provided with orders for up to two months.
Region. There are significant differences in order availability among enterprises in different regions2
. The
average term of order availability is the longest for enterprises in the Poltava and Volyn regions; it is 6 and 5
1
This analysis does not include enterprises in the sectors of agriculture, construction, trade, and services, as well as
enterprises included in the category "Other production."
2
Regions in which no enterprises were surveyed are not included in the comparison. In addition, the answers of
respondents in the Mykolayiv region are not included in the comparison by regions because the number of
respondents in this region is insufficient for statistical comparison. For more details, see the "Sample" section.
7%
50%
21%
9%
13%
16%
42%
22%
12%
9%
11%
37%
26%
18%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months 6 to 11 months 12 months and
more
Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23

23
months, respectively (median value). At the same time, in the Poltava region, all surveyed companies said that
they have orders for at least 3 months.
On the other hand, the enterprises of Kharkiv and Chernivtsi regions, on average, are provided with orders for
less than one month. It is the lowest among all regions covered by this survey. Dnipropetrovsk and Zhytomyr
regions (1 month on average) and Chernihiv region (1.5 months) also have short average order terms.
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES
The indicator of receivables decreased for the fourth month in a row. The value of the ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES
INDEX in January compared to December decreased sharply, from -0.05 to -0.25. The share of those who
reported an increase in debt increased almost threefold, from 13.4% to 38.1%. At the same time, the share of
those with debt almost halved, from 20.8% to 11.2%. Also, the share of those for whom nothing has changed
over the past month decreased from 65.8% to 50.7%.
Size. The worst situation with receivables is for large enterprises (-0.16). The indicator of small and medium-
sized enterprises is the same and is -0.30. The best the value is for micro-enterprises, which is the lowest -0.36.
Region. Significant regional differences in the values of this indicator were recorded. In terms of regions, the
largest increase in receivables was recorded in the city of Kyiv (0.43), Cherkasy (0.23), and Kyiv (0.21) regions.
The indicator of the Chernihiv, Poltava, Zakarpattya, and Zaporizhzhya regions is zero. The lowest is the indicator
for Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv (-1.00 for each), Ternopil (-0.93), and Sumy (-0.86) regions.
Sector. Machine building, woodworking (-0.05 each), and the printing industry (-0.10) have the highest positive
values. The chemical industry (-0.33), light industry (-0.34), and metalworking (-0.41) have the lowest indicators.
Expected changes in account receivables
A further debt reduction is expected in the next three months.
The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES decreased from -0.19 to -0.29. Both the share of
respondents who expect this indicator to increase (from 3.9% to 5.8%) and the share of those who expect it to
decrease (from 23.5% to 35.8%) increased. The share of those who believe nothing will change has significantly
decreased, from 72.6% to 58.4%.
Fig. 18. Indices of changes in account receivables
0,15
0,03
0,05 0,05
0,08
0,01
-0,03
-0,05
-0,25
0,00
-0,03
-0,16
-0,13
-0,08
-0,18
-0,14
-0,19
-0,29
-0,35
-0,30
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
Accounts receivable Accounts receivable exp.

24
Size. The large and micro enterprises, whose indicator is the same (-0.24), have the highest indicator of
expectations. The indicator of medium-sized enterprises is -0.30, and the indicator of small enterprises is the
lowest at -0.39.
Region. The highest are the indicators of the city of Kyiv (0.40), Cherkasy (0.10), and Kyiv (0.06) regions. The
indicators of the Poltava, Zakarpattya, and Vinnytsya regions are equal to zero. The indicators of other regions
have a negative value, and the lowest are the indicators of Sumy, Ternopil, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions (-
1.00 for each).
Sector. The woodworking industry (-0.05) and machine building (-0.06) have the highest indicator of
expectations for receivables increase. The value for the food industry and construction materials production (-
0.37 each) is the lowest.
ACCOUNT PAYABLES
In January, the indicator significantly decreased after a slight increase in December. The ACCOUNT PAYABLES INDEX
decreased from -0.05 to -0.26. The share of respondents who reported an increase in debt changed slightly,
decreasing from 11.5% to 9.1%. At the same time, the share of those whose accounts payable decreased almost
doubled, from 19.4% to 36.8%. The share of those for whom nothing has changed over the past month
decreased from 69.1% to 54.1%.
Size. The indicator of large enterprises is the highest and amounts to -0.16. The indicator of medium (-0.32) and
small (-0.33) enterprises is approximately the same. Micro-enterprises have the lowest indicator of payables: -
0.26.
Region. Significant regional differences were recorded. The situation with the accumulation of payables is the
worst in the city of Kyiv (0.33), in Cherkasy (0.17) and Kyiv (0.10) regions, and the best situation is in Lviv and
Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00 each), Ternopil and Sumy regions (-0.93 each).
Sector. The highest is the indicator of the woodworking industry, which is equal to zero. All other indicators
have a negative value, but the lowest value is for the food (-0.32) and chemical (-0.35) industries and for
metalworking (-0.36).
Expected changes in account payables
A further debt reduction is expected for the next three months. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN ACCOUNT
PAYABLES after remaining practically unchanged for two months significantly decreased from -0.17 to -0.30. The
share of those who expected a decrease in payables increased from 20.6% to 34.3%. And the share of those who
expected an increase in payables remained almost unchanged at 3.3% (it was 3.8% ). The share of respondents
who believe nothing will change decreased from 75.6% to 62.4%.
Size. The indicator of expected payables is higher and approximately the same for large (-0.22) and micro-
enterprises (-0.20). The indicators of medium (-0.35) and small (-0.38) enterprises are better and are
approximately in the same range.
Region. The indicator of expectations for payables is positive and the only one above zero in Kyiv (0.20),
Cherkasy (0.10), and Kyiv (0.03) regions. The lowest indicators are for Ternopil, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00
for each) regions and in Dnipropetrovsk (-0.92) and Sumy (-0.93) regions.
Sector. The highest is the indicator of the woodworking industry, which is equal to zero. Metal processing (-
0.39), food (-0.38), and light industries (-0.43) have the lowest values.

25
Fig. 19. Indices of changes in account payables
TAX ARREARS
The rate of tax arrears reduction has accelerated. The TAX ARREARS INDEX in January compared to November
decreased three times, from -0.10 to -0.30. The share of enterprises that reported a decrease in tax arrears over
the past month doubled, from 14.9% to 32.3%, while the share of respondents who indicated an increase in tax
arrears decreased from 4.3% to 1.0%. The share of those who believe there were no changes has significantly
decreased, from 80.8% to 66.7%.
Size. Tax arrears indicators are better and almost the same for large (-0.21) and micro-enterprises (-0.22). The
indicator is higher and is approximately in the same range for medium (-0.35) and small (-0.39) enterprises.
Region. There are significant differences in the value of this indicator by region. Indicators of Kyiv, Cherkasy,
Chernihiv, Poltava, Volyn, Zakarpattya, and Zhytomyr regions are equal to zero. The other regions' indicators
have a negative value, and the lowest are the indicators of Lviv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00 each), Ternopil (-
0.93), and Dnipropetrovsk (-0.83) regions.
Sector. The indicator of tax arrears for the woodworking industry has the highest value, equal to zero. The value
for the printing industry is -0.50, and for metalworking -0.39.
Expected changes in tax arrears
Entrepreneurs expect a further reduction in tax arrears for the next three months. The INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN TAX ARREARS decreased from -0.16 to -0.28. The share of those who forecast a decrease in tax arrears
increased from 17.0% to 29.7%, while the share of those who expect it to increase changed slightly and
amounted to 0.8% (it was 1.1%). The share of those who do not expect changes decreased from 81.9% to 69.5%.
Size. Indicators of tax arrears expectations are better and about the same for large (-0.19) and micro-enterprises
(-0.21). The indicator is higher and is approximately in the same range for medium (-0.31) and small (-0.38)
enterprises.
Region. The indicator of expectations of the Volyn region is the only one above zero and is 0.05. Ternopil, Lviv,
Sumy, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions have the lowest values (-1.00 each).
0,10
0,01
0,00 0,00 0,01
-0,03
-0,08
-0,05
-0,26
0,00
-0,06
-0,19
-0,13 -0,14
-0,19
-0,17 -0,17
-0,30
-0,35
-0,30
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
Accounts payable Accounts payable exp.

26
Sector. The highest indicator of tax arrears expectations is for the woodworking industry and is 0.07. Indicators
of other sectors have a negative value, but the lowest is the indicator for the food (-0.37) and printing (-0.38)
industries.
Fig. 20. Indices of changes in tax arrears
NUMBER OF WORKERS
The rate of employment reduction remains almost unchanged for the fourth month in a row. The NUMBER OF
WORKERS INDEX in January is -0.09 (it was -0.08 in December). The share of respondents who reported a decrease
in the number of workers involved in all operations of the enterprise remained almost unchanged at 11.3% (it
was 11.2%). And the share of those who indicated their increase is 1.4% (it was 1.8% in December). The share of
those for whom nothing has changed is 87.3% (it was 86.9% in December).
Size. The indicator is slightly higher and approximately the same for large (-0.07) and medium (-0.08)
enterprises. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.11. The lowest index value is for micro-enterprises and is -
0.21.
Region. The highest is the index of the Chernihiv region (0.07). Sumy (-0.53), Kharkiv (-0.42) and Volyn (-0.28)
regions have the lowest values.
Sector. The index of food (-0.05), woodworking (-0.07), and printing (-0.08) industries is the highest. The
indicators of construction materials production (-0.19) and food industry (-0.21) have the lowest values.
Expected changes in the number of workers
In the next three months, entrepreneurs expect a slight increase in the indicator: the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES
in the number of workers increased for the second month in a row and amounts to 0.04 (the value increased
from zero). Changes in the percentage distribution are insignificant. The share of respondents who believe that
the number of workers at the enterprise will increase has changed slightly, from 4.9% to 5.7%, while the share
of those who expect a reduction in the number of workers has decreased from 5.3% to 3.3%. The share of those
who believe that nothing will change has increased from 89.7% to 91.0%.
Size. The indicator of large (0.07) and medium (0.04)companies is approximately the same and has a positive
value. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.01. The value of micro-enterprises is the lowest and is equal to -
0.07.
-0,09
-0,14
-0,06
-0,02
-0,06
-0,12
-0,10
-0,30
-0,10
-0,18
-0,09
-0,07
-0,19
-0,17 -0,16
-0,28
-0,35
-0,30
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Tax arrears Tax arrears ex.

27
Region. The value of the index of expected changes in the number of workers significantly depends on the
region where the enterprise is located. The highest indicator of expectations was recorded for the Odesa (0.11)
region, the city of Kyiv (0.10), Kyiv, and Khmelnytskyy (0.09 each) regions. It is the lowest for Lviv (-0.03),
Kharkiv, and Sumy (-0.08 each) regions.
Sector. The highest index of expectations is for the metalworking (0.12) and woodworking (0.09) industries. The
construction materials production of building materials (-0.10) and the printing (-0.18) industry have the lowest
indicators.
Fig. 21. Indices of changes in the number of workers
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE
Enterprises slowed down the rate of reduction in the number of personnel on forced leave, as evidenced by a
slight increase in the indicator. The NUMBER OF WORKERS ON FORCE LEAVE INDEX increased slightly in January
compared to December, from -0.20 to -0.18. The share of business representatives who reported an increase in
the number of workers on forced leave increased from 5.8% to 7.8%, while the share of those who indicated a
decrease fell from 26.3% to 25.3 %. The share of those for whom the situation has not changed over the past
month remained almost unchanged and is 67.6% (it was 67.9%).
Size. The highest and only positive is the index of micro-enterprises, which is 0.02, and the value of the index of
large enterprises is -0.10. The indicators of small (-0.22) and medium (-0.29) enterprises are the lowest and
approximately the same.
Region. Among the various regions, the largest increase in the indicator is observed for enterprises in Sumy
(0.27), Kyiv (0.26), Vinnytsya (0.21), and Khmelnytskyy (0.20) regions. And a decrease in the number of workers
on forced leave is most often reported in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions (-1.00 for each).
Sector. The woodworking (0.14), machine building (0.03), and chemical (zero) industries have the worst
indicators for the number of workers on forced leave. The indicators of all other sectors have a negative value,
and the lowest are the indicators of printing (-0.40) and food (-0.31) industries.
-0,54
-0,30
-0,16
-0,09
-0,03
-0,09 -0,08 -0,08 -0,09
0,01
0,03
0,11
0,04 0,03
-0,02 -0,03
0,00
0,04
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov,22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Number of workers Number of workers exp.

28
Fig. 22. Indices of changes in the number of workers on forced leave
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave
Enterprises that have workers on forced leave also expect a slight increase in the indicator in the next three
months. The index of expected changes in the number of workers on forced leave increased slightly, from -0.28
to -0.26, although the indicator of those who plan to reduce the number of such workers in the future is still
high. The share of enterprises at which the number of employees on forced leave is expected to increase grew
from 1.7% to 2.3%. At the same time, the share of those who believe that the number of such personnel at their
company will decrease slightly decreased from 30.3% to 28.3%. And the share of those who believe there will be
no changes increased from 68.0% to 69.4%.
Size. Micro-enterprises are the least likely to expect an increase in the number of workers on forced leave; their
index has only positive value of 0.06. The indicator for large enterprises is -0.21, and for medium-sized
enterprises, the indicator is -0.29. The lowest value of the indicator is for small enterprises (-0.35).
Region. Indicators of Khmelnytskyy (0.29), Sumy (0.09), and Chernihiv (0.09) regions have the highest value of
the index, while indicators of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00 each) and Ternopil (-0, 95) regions are the lowest.
Sector. The highest expectations index for the number of workers on forced leave is for the machine building
(0.07) and woodworking (0.06) industry (0.06). The indicator of construction materials production is zero.
Indicators of other sectors have a negative value, and the lowest is the indicator of the food (-0.40) and printing
(-0.33) industries.
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS
In January, it became somewhat more difficult to find skilled workers, as evidenced by the increase in the
index, while the situation with the search for unskilled personnel remains unchanged. The value of THE INDEX OF
DIFFICULTIES IN FINDING SKILLED WORKERS increased from 0.12 to 0.19. The value of the INDEX OF DIFFICULTIES IN FINDING
UNSKILLED WORKERS remains almost unchanged and is 0.06 (it was 0.05 in December). The share of company
managers who indicated that skilled workers are more difficult to find increased from 18.8% to b20.9%. At the
same time, the share of those who find it more difficult to find unskilled workers remained almost unchanged at
11.2% (it was 11.3%). The percentage of those who find it easier to find skilled workers decreased from 5.4% to
2.0%. And the share of those who find it easier to find unskilled workers is 5.9% (it was 5.8%). At the same time,
the share of those who do not feel any changes in the search for skilled workers increased from 75.8% to 77.1%,
and for unskilled workers, the percentage remained unchanged at 82.9%.
0,35
0,05 0,06
0,01 0,00
-0,09
-0,20 -0,20 -0,18
-0,01
-0,22
-0,14
-0,03
0,02
-0,17
-0,25
-0,28 -0,26
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.

29
Fig. 23. Indices of changes in skilled and unskilled workers
Skilled workers
Size. Depending on the size of the enterprise, the value of the index is lower and approximately the same for
large (0.16) and medium (0.17) enterprises, while for small (0.23) and micro enterprises (0.24), the indicator is
slightly higher.
Region. Significant regional differences in the labor market were recorded. It is easier to search for skilled
workers in the Ternopil region, whose indicator has a single negative value (-0.05). The hardest is in Chernihiv
(1.00) and Dnipropetrovsk (0.95) regions and in Kyiv city (0.70).
Sector. The printing (0.10) and food (0.14) industries have fewer difficulties finding skilled workers. It is more
difficult to find skilled workers for the woodworking industry (0.35) and machine building (0.33).
Unskilled workers
Size. Micro (0.03) and small (0.02) enterprises have less difficulties in finding unskilled labor, while medium
(0.06) and large (0.09) enterprises have slightly more difficulties.
Region. It is easiest to find unskilled workers in Sumy (-0.78), Kyiv (-0.12), Chernivtsi (-0.06), and Odesa (-0.03)
regions. The most difficulties with finding unskilled workers are in Dnipropetrovsk (0.90), Khmelnytskyy, and
Zhytomyr (0.50 each) regions.
Sector. The worst indicators for finding unskilled workers are in the metalworking (0.19) and woodworking
industries (0.17), and for machine building (-0.06) and printing (zero) industries, the indicators are the lowest.
0,24
0,18
0,06
0,09
0,17
0,11 0,12
0,19
-0,01
-0,06 -0,07 -0,07
0,09
0,02
0,05 0,06
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
Skilled workers Unskilled workers

30
SPECIAL PART OF THE SURVEY
THE IMPACT OF WAR ON ENTERPRISES
Challenges for businesses in wartime
In January 2023, the problem of electricity, water, and heat supply outages took the first place in the ranking of
obstacles for the surveyed businesses. For the third month since November 2022, this problem, caused by
massive Russian missile attacks, has become the main one for the surveyed businesses. In January, 79% of the
respondents reported it. This share has practically not changed during the last three months.
The problem of rising prices for raw materials and supplies is in the second place in the rating of obstacles in
January 2023. For four months in a row (from October 2022 to January 2023), about 70% of enterprises have
indicated it; in the last survey, this share was 69%.
Difficulties transporting raw materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine have become more noticeable
for the surveyed businesses. This problem, which was indicated by 39% of companies in January 2023, came in
the third place in the rating of business obstacles. In the previous survey wave, 33% of respondents reported it.
This obstacle shared third place with the problem of work hazards. The same share of respondents - 39% - in
January 2023 said that it was unsafe to work. However, the sharpness of this problem has decreased compared
to the previous two months: in November and December 2022, 46%-47% of companies reported a danger to
their work. Despite this, the share of enterprises considering it is unsafe to work in January 2023 is still higher
than during May-October 2022: in this period, the corresponding share of business did not exceed 34%3
.
Disruption of supply chains ends the top five obstacles for businesses surveyed in January 2023. During the last
two months – December 2022 and January 2023 – the share of businesses indicating this problem is 35% or
more. The problem's effect increased again after September-November 2022; the share of respondents who
faced it gradually decreased.
In January, businesses spoke more often about the decrease in demand for companies' products or services
(32%) and the lack of labor due to conscription and migration of workers (22%). These problems took
respectively sixth and seventh place in the ranking of obstacles. However, they are mentioned less often than in
the spring-summer of 2022, when a decrease in demand was a problem for more than 40% of enterprises and a
lack of workers, for more than 30%.
15% of enterprises said they faced a lack of working capital or the problem of state regulation of the exchange
rate. As a result, these problems shared the eighth place in the ranking of obstacles. It is worth noting that the
problem of lack of funds has become less acute compared to the previous month: in December 2022, 22% of
surveyed enterprises reported it.
Up to 10% of enterprises indicated the remaining problems – lack of fuel, damage to property or goods due to
military actions, and corruption. In addition, in January 2023, the tax invoices blocking was added to the list of
obstacles for the first time. 3% of enterprises indicated this obstacle. Another 3% of respondents added their
own options for obstacles, among which were the lack of raw materials and a decrease in people's incomes
were most often mentioned. And about 1% of businesses surveyed in January 2023 said they had not faced any
problems.
Fig. 24. The most important problems for the surveyed businesses
3
The first wave of this survey was conducted in May 2022.

31
79%
69%
39%
39%
35%
32%
22%
15%
15%
10%
6%
5%
3%
1%
80%
71%
33%
47%
37%
30%
19%
22%
19%
8%
4%
4%
1%
78%
68%
33%
46%
21%
30%
16%
22%
22%
12%
5%
1%
0%
51%
70%
41%
33%
28%
29%
16%
23%
25%
13%
6%
1%
1%
4%
63%
41%
18%
33%
30%
15%
37%
26%
8%
6%
9%
4%
5%
58%
46%
26%
31%
13%
32%
28%
13%
6%
5%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Interruptions of electricity, water or heat supply
Rising prices for raw materials/goods
Difficulties with transportation of raw materials/goods
through the territory of Ukraine
It is dangerous to work
Disruption of supply chains
Decrease in demand for products/services
Lack of personnel due to conscription and/or migration
Lack of working capital
Government regulation of the exchange rate
Lack of fuel
Damage to property/goods as a result of hostilities
Corruption
Blocking of tax invoices
There were no problems
Jan.23 Dec.22 Nov.22 Oct.22 Sept.22 Aug.22 Jul.22

32
Challenges for businesses by size. The acutance of the main problem for businesses in January 2023 –
electricity, water, and heat supply outages – does not differ significantly for companies of different sizes. At the
same time, the next most common problem – the increase in prices for raw materials or supplies – is mentioned
by big businesses more often than the rest of the respondents. The corresponding share of respondents here is
77%, while among smaller enterprises, it is from 64% to 69%.
With the increase in the size of enterprises, the importance of such problems as difficulties transporting raw
materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine and the lack of labor force increases. While 27% of micro-
enterprises report difficulties transporting raw materials or goods, more than 40% of large and medium-sized
enterprises report such difficulties. Similarly, while only 7% of enterprises felt a lack of labor in micro-
businesses, this share was 27% and 26%, respectively, for medium and large enterprises.
In addition, micro-enterprises are less likely than larger enterprises to report that it is unsafe to work (22%) and
that supply chains are disrupted (24%).
Challenges for businesses by sector. Enterprises of various industries report the impact of the main obstacle –
electricity, water, and heat supply outages – at approximately the same level4
. Among others, the printing
industry stands out in this regard – here, in January 2023, all surveyed enterprises reported they were hindered
by this problem.
Representatives of the food industry are more likely than businesses in other sectors to report rising prices
(81%) and difficulties transporting raw materials or goods across the territory of Ukraine (51%). The highest
share of companies that say it is unsafe to work is in the machine-building industry (49%). Companies in the
chemical, food and printing industries were more likely than others to experience supply chain disruptions in
January (from 38% to 42%).
Challenges for businesses by region. Businesses in different areas differ in their assessment of the impact of the
various disruptions to doing business caused by the full-scale war5
. Electricity, water, and heat supply outages
were a significant obstacle in January 2023 for businesses in most regions covered by this survey. They became
especially noticeable in Zakarpattya and Cherkasy regions, where all respondents (100%) indicated this problem,
and in Zaporizhzhya, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, and Khmelnytskyy regions, where more than 90% of local
businesses reported it.
The problem of rising prices for raw materials or supplies is most often reported in Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk,
Lviv, and Ternopil regions (more than 90% of enterprises). Difficulties transporting goods or raw materials
through Ukraine's territory are most felt by businesses of the Vinnytsya region (71%). The fact that it is unsafe to
work is the most common in Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions (more than 80%).
The war impact on capacity/production volumes
In January, businesses remained resilient to Russian terrorist attacks, but the production recovery was
inactive. In January, only 3% of companies surveyed reported they stopped their activities during the war
(almost at the level of September-December).6
Also, the share of enterprises operating at less than 25% of pre-
war capacity remains low - only 5% in January (also 5% in December). The percentage of companies operating at
full capacity and more (4% of enterprises against 3% in December) and almost at full capacity (43% in January
against 44% in December) remained low in January compared to pre-war volumes. Also, the share of enterprises
operating at 50 - 74% has hardly changed: 29% in January against 30% in December.
4
This analysis does not include companies of agriculture, construction, trade, and services, as well as enterprises
included in the category "Other production."
5
Regions in which no enterprises were surveyed are not included in the comparison. In addition, the answers of
respondents in the Mykolayiv region are not included in the comparison by regions, as the number of respondents
in this region is insufficient for statistical comparison. For more details, see the "Sample" section.
6
A significant sample expansion compared to the previous month could also have a minor impact on the results.

33
Thus, in January, the business operated at approximately the same capacity as the previous month. In total,
47% of respondents worked at almost full, full, and more than full production capacities in January, December,
and November. That is, back in November, the business managed to master the situation and maintain
production processes even during power cuts, in particular, due to additional power supply sources. As a result,
this transformed into a relatively stable winter passage (see section "Impact of the power cuts"). However, the
situation remains less optimistic for certain industries and micro-businesses.
Fig. 25. The impact of war on the enterprises' work (% of respondents)
Results for businesses by size. Throughout the war, micro-businesses constantly remain more sensitive to its
negative effects. Micro-businesses also suffer more from power outages (see the Impact of power cuts section).
In January, 12% of micro-businesses did not work (16% in December, 13% in November, and 10% in October).
Micro-enterprises are more sensitive to changes in the business environment, which is reflected in worse
assessments for most indicators. In comparison, small businesses have almost completely resumed work (3%
were out of work). Among large companies, a small share of enterprises also did not work (2% in January against
0% in December). However, the surveyed medium-sized enterprises have fully resumed work. Thus, in general,
enterprises of all sizes were able to stabilize their work.
Among medium and large businesses, there remains the largest share of enterprises that maintain production at
almost full and full capacity compared to the pre-war period - 54% of medium enterprises and 55% of large
enterprises, respectively. At the same time, the small business experienced a slight worsening of the situation -
the indicator decreased from 47% in December to 41% in January. The situation in micro-business improved, for
which the corresponding indicator increased from 21% in December to 25% in January.
10% 8%
3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
17%
14%
12%
7% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5%
16%
17%
16%
14%
13% 16%
18%
16% 16%
26%
19%
23%
33%
30%
33% 26%
30% 29%
17%
30% 36%
36%
41%
36% 43% 44% 43%
15% 12% 10% 8% 8% 8%
3% 3% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% utilization capacity up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% and higher capacity

34
Fig. 26. The share of enterprises operating almost at full and full capacity (75 - 99%, 100%, and more) compared to the pre-war
period (by enterprise size, %)
Results for businesses by sector. The list of industries-leaders in recovery has undergone minor changes for the
first time. On the one hand, in January, the food industry is again in the first place (as in December). For
example, 62% of food industry enterprises worked almost at full and full capacity in December, which is almost
at the level of December (63%). The light industry obtained second place with 46% (it was also 46%, but the
third place in December). At the same time, capacity utilization in the printing industry continued to decrease. If
in November, 75% of the industry representatives worked almost at full capacity, then in December, this
indicator decreased to 54%, and in January, it fell to 33%. In contrast, the situation in other industries has
improved, where the share of enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity has increased. The
corresponding indicator increased in machine building (from 33% in December to 37% in January) and the
chemical industry (from 22% to 35%). The worst situation is in construction materials production, as in the
industry, only 14% of respondents were working at near full and full capacity (25% in December).
Fig. 27. The share of industrial enterprises operating almost at full and full capacity (75 - 99%, 100% and more) compared to the
prewar period, % of respondents by sector
16%
22%
15%
17%
15%
24%
32%
21%
25%
28%
48%
40%
47%
42% 42%
47%
41%
42%
54%
51%
57%
48%
53% 53%
54%
30%
46% 51%
55%
49% 48%
48%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%

35
Results by region7
. As in previous waves of the survey, business in the western regions is operating at the
highest level of capacity utilization. As in the previous wave of the survey, 100% of enterprises in the Ivano-
Frankivsk, Lviv, and Ternopil regions worked almost at full capacity in January. At the same time, it somewhat
equalized between different regions of Ukraine. In particular, the corresponding indicator is 100% in the Poltava
region and 92% in the Odesa region. The situation remains difficult in the front-line Zaporizhzhya region, in
which, as in November and December, there are no enterprises working at high capacity compared to the pre-
war period. The corresponding indicators are also low in Zakarpattya (3% at full and almost full capacity),
Kharkiv (8%), Cherkasy (13%), Sumy (16%), Kirovohrad (19%) regions, and the city of Kyiv (24%). However, for
example, in the Zakarpattya and Cherkasy regions, the situation is more optimistic, as 70% and 67% of the
surveyed enterprises operate at 50-74% capacity, respectively.
IMPACT OF POWER CUTS
In the ninth wave of the survey, industrial enterprises were again asked to assess the impact of the power
supply cuts on their operations. The obtained results confirm that in December 2022, the problem of power
outages covered a larger share of enterprises compared to November. In particular, in December, 89% of
companies temporarily suspended work due to power outages (82% in November). Another 6% of companies
worked all the time (4% in November), even during outages, and 5% of companies had no outages at all (14% in
November). At the same time, 30% of enterprises did not work 1-10% of the working time (31% in November).
Additionally, 30% of enterprises did not work 11-25% of the time (26% in November) and 19% - 26-50% of the
time (the indicator was at the level of the previous month). The most critical situation was in 11% of enterprises,
which did not work more than half of the time (51 - 100%) due to the power supply cuts. The corresponding
indicator increased almost twice; it indicates a certain worsening of the situation in December (6% in
November).
On average, businesses lost 23% of total working time due to power cuts in December, which is slightly higher
than the previous month (21% in November). However, the situation depends on the size of the business,
industry, and region.
Fig. 28. The impact of power cuts on the enterprises' work, % of respondents
7
In the Kharkiv region, the number of respondents (fullness of the subsample) is insufficient to analyze the answers to
this question.
6%
19%
26%
31%
4%
14%
11%
19%
30%
30%
6%
5%
0% 20% 40%
51-100% of working time
0% (worked all the time)
No power cuts

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