Top_10_IHS_Global_Healthcare_and_Pharma_Industry_Drivers_2013

Global Healthcare and Pharma Outlook:
Top Ten Key Industry Drivers for 2013

Presented by

Gustav Ando
Director
Healthcare and Pharma
IHS
gustav.ando@ihs.com

2 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS

Introduction

Key industry drivers, identified by the healthcare
practice team at IHS, covering pharmaceutical
developments across the world and stretching across
R&D, P&R, M&A and more

Contributors: Milena Izmirlieva, Robert McTiernan,
Kavita Rainova, Anne-Charlotte Honore, Sophia
Walker, Chiara Stella Cochetti, Jing Zhang, Cameron
Lockwood, Gaelle Marinoni, Floriane Reinaud


1. The foundations for economic recovery are in place

 Spend will be up in the United States and emerging
markets, but remain stunted in critical European
markets due to austerity and cost containment

 Volume-based generics will continue their upward trend
– this is also true, though to a lesser extent, for
biosimilars

 Underlying demographics continue to be favorable and
outweigh general clampdown on demand

2. The United States will experience “Gap Year Syndrome”

 The focus will be on implementing Medicaid expansion
– amid continued political resistance

 The market will see significant increases in
pharmaceutical prices

 Health spend will grow modestly next year at rate of 5%
before rising above 6% in 2014 – our assumptions are
based on a more gradualistic impact of Medicaid
expansion than for example CMS

3. Europe/Eurozone instability will continue
to suppress public health expenditure

 Greece and Italy will experience negative and lower
growth (respectively), with Italy implementing its spending
review

 Health spend will grow significantly in France with newly
implemented price cuts, prescription controls, and a focus
on home care

 Market expansion will be driven by international reference
pricing–particularly in Eastern Europe–but also markets
like Belgium, whilst markets like Sweden and Norway are
implementing new reforms

4. Political changes in Germany and Italy
will change the healthcare landscape

 In Germany, federal elections in September/October can
create considerable risk of an impasse

 Germany will feel the full (negative) impact of AMNOG this
year – this has already resulted in several product
withdrawals but there is more to come…

 In Italy, the technocratic Monti government is already in
turmoil following the withdrawal of support from
Berlusconi’s party and there are potentially wild card
parties that could assume greater control and have a
further destabilising effect on the market

5. The patent cliff will stabilize, but headwinds still felt

 Second year of the patent cliff but a drop-off from the
peak of 2012–and most of those off-patent drugs (Plavix,
Lipitor etc) were quickly commoditised. Expect to feel
slight tremors from the expiration of Tricor (fenofibrate),
Xeloda (capecitabine) Zometa (zoledronic acid),
Lidoderm (lidocaine) Temodar (temozolimide), Niaspan
(niacin ER) and Aciphex (rabeprazole)

 The year comes to a startling close with patent expiration
for USD3.5 billion depression drug Cymbalta
(duloxetine) in December 2013


6. China, Brazil, and Russia
lead the way in healthy growth

 China’s growth should still hit double-digits next year with
expanded coverage and the government’s stimulus
measures–this is a crucial year in the context of the
country’s 2009-2020 reform plan

 Brazil’s fiscal stimulus should spark growth during the
second half of the year. Real GDP is projected to hit 3.6%
with a corresponding jump in health spend expected

 Russia is preparing a new centralized drug procurement
system that shows clear preferences for domestic and
generic drugs

7. India will continue to lag, despite best efforts

 Healthcare reform remains several years behind other
emerging markets

 Heath spend growth will lose steam in the medium
term and the government is setting an entirely new
Pricing & Reimbursement system to accompany the
healthcare insurance/infrastructure expansion.


8. Latin America will see increased harmonization

 With the implementation of a new regional drug pricing
database for 12 markets, the Latin American market is
gearing towards increased visibility on regional pharma
pricing and harmonisation of processes–although the final
launch is expected in 2014

 Colombia is launching its new reference pricing system
which will target patented and generic drugs, whilst Mexico
is implementing its biosimilars regulation in 2013


9. New “game-changing” technology developments
will drive future growth

 Celgene’s pomalidomide is a key potential catalyst with a
PDUFA date in February 2013, which is also the month for
FDA action on Roche’s next-generation Herceptin
candidate T-DM1

 Biogen’s BG-12, the hotly anticipated multiple sclerosis
drug , has a PDUFA date of March 2013

 Another critical candidate to watch out for is Ophthotec’s
PDGF/VEGF inhibitor, which looks set to again transform
the AMD market


10. Biosimilars will spring into action

 The FDA has approved biosimilar Neupogen, with Teva
positioned to launch its version in November 2013

 The FDA is ramping up its user fee base and funding in
order to accommodate what is expected to be a
significant increase in workload related to biosimilars in
2013


Want to get more insight into drug pricing?

Dynamic Pharmaceutical Pricing 2012: What’s Really Behind Drug Prices?
This study provides a clear and comprehensive overview of drug price changes within and across
markets. Leveraging our proprietary POLI pricing database, we analyse how and why ex-
manufacturing prices have changed over time, as well as how pricing differs by therapeutic area and
country, strengthening go-to-market and life-cycle management strategies.

Key questions answered:
•How have drug prices evolved in recent years?
•What are the major drivers behind pharmaceutical price changes?
•How does healthcare reform, such as that seen in the United States and Germany, affect prices?
•What is the real impact of the global economic downturn on pharmaceutical prices?
•How does reference pricing, both international and therapeutic, impact drug prices?
•How has the much-vaunted patent cliff affected pricing dynamics?
•How will ongoing policy developments influence pharmaceutical price changes in future?

Download the sample reports and learn more


IHS Healthcare Multi-Client Studies 2011-2012

• Dynamic Pricing 2012: What’s Really Behind Drug Price Changes

• The New REAlity of Relative Effectiveness

• Payer-Industry Partnerships in Emerging Markets

• Payer-Industry Partnerships: Best Practice for Successful Market Access of New
Pharmaceuticals

• Optimising Market Access Strategies Under AMNOG

• Optimising Strategies for Pharmaceutical Launch Sequencing

• Optimising Medical Device & Diagnostic Launches in Developed Markets

• A Survey of the European Hospital Drug Market

• European PharmacoVigilance Reform: Implications for Market Access

Visit the IHS Healthcare and Pharma blog

Get weekly insights on global healthcare policy, market
access, pricing and reimbursement, and R&D

www.ihs.com/healthcareblog


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