The UK and the US have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus. But how many people have been affected? And what happens next? Through this webinar, expert actuaries highlighted how COVID-19 has directly and indirectly impacted on death rates in America and the UK. We learned who has been most susceptible to infection and death as well as discuss what happens next.

1. Numbers matter – Coronavirus in
the UK and US. What we know
and what happens next
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

2. What is ILC?
ILC is the UK’s specialist think tank on the impact of longevity on
society and what happens next. We:
• Are independent and politically neutral
• Use evidence-based research for policy
• Work collaboratively to pioneer solutions for the future
Our work focuses on three strategic priorities:
• Maximising the benefits of longevity
• Ensuring longer lives are good for everyone
• Future-proofing policy and practice
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

3. Partners Programme
Be part of what happens next
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

4. Welcome and
introduction from Chair
Trevor Llanwarne, ILC Trustee
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

5. Stuart McDonald
Head of Demographic Assumptions and
Methodology, Lloyds Banking Group
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

6. Classification: Public
INTERNAL
USE ONLY
COVID-19 UK Numbers
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday
4 June 2020

7. Classification: Public

8. Classification: Public
So many
numbers!
Which
numbers
matter?
Infection
Fatality
Rate (IFR)
Case
Fatality
Rate
(CFR)
Reproduction
Rate (R)
Mortality
Rate
Number
of COVID
Deaths
Excess
Deaths
Total
number of
confirmed
cases
Population
Prevalence
Number of
new cases

9. Classification: Public
Fatality and
Mortality
Rates
We know the following about Country X:
- There have been 1,000 COVID-19 deaths
- There have been no other excess deaths
- There are 10,000 confirmed positive tests
- Antibody testing suggests 50,000 exposed
- Total Population in one million people
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = 1,000 / 10,000
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = 10%
Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = 1,000 / 50,000
Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = 2%
Mortality Rate = 1,000 / 1,000,000
Mortality Rate = 0.1%
IFR typically unknown and must be estimated
Mortality rate not meaningful until epidemic over

10. Classification: Public
CMI estimates
64,500 excess
deaths in the
UK to date

11. Classification: Public
SIR and SEIR
Models
S(E)IR Models Description of state
Susceptible (S) No exposure to the virus
Exposed (E) or
Infectious (I)
Exposed but not yet
infectious
Infectious (I) Infectious but unaware
Infectious (I)
or Removed (R)
Infectious and isolated
Removed (R) No longer infectious
Removed (R) Deceased
RIES

12. Classification: Public
Early on, modelling COVID-19
infections was easy!
• This forecast was made with a
modified S/I/R model
• S = Susceptible
• I = Infectious
• R = Removed
• Rt = 2.6; Infectious Period 6 days.
• Daily infection rate = 2.6 / 6 = 43.3%
• Daily recovery rate = 1 / 6 = 16.7%
• Growth in infections = 26.7%

13. Classification: Public
Comparing
Data
Sources
Example:
England
DHSC figures announced daily by UK Gov. Now include
deaths in all settings where there has been a positive
COVID-19 test. Date of notification basis.
NHS hospital deaths released daily, showing actual date
of death. Now includes those with no positive test, but
where COVID-19 documented on the death certificate.
ONS figures released weekly and reflect all registered
deaths (hospital, care homes and community) with
COVID-19 indicated on the death certificate.

14. Classification: Public
Estimating Rt

15. Classification: Public
Comorbidities
The Lancet
Life expectancy of an
obese male smoker
with example medical
conditions.

16. Classification: Public
Risk varies geographically

17. Classification: Public
Age, Sex and
Ethnicity
distribution of
ICU patients
© ICNARC – 29 May

18. Classification: Public
Socioeconomic
and BMI
distribution of
ICU patients
© ICNARC – 29 May

19. Classification: Public
Exposure and
Mortality Risks
Combined
#OpenSafely

20. Classification: Public
What next?
Living with
Uncertainty
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
COVID-19 Infectious Population - UK
R=1.2; Seasonal R=1.2; Non-seasonal
R=1.1; Non-seasonal R=1.1; Seasonal
Four potential scenarios for the next nine months
- R before allowing for susceptibility is 1.1 or 1.2
- Virus is or is not seasonal
- Seasonality modelled as a 10% fall in R May-Sept

21. Classification: Public
INTERNAL
USE ONLY
Thank you! Questions?
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday

22. Caroline Roberts
Longevity Risk Manager, The Phoenix Group
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

23. 23Classification: Confidential
Coronavirus:
What we know…
… And what happens next

24. 24Classification: Confidential
What we know…
i.e. take the past data and analysis it
… And what happens next
and build models that will predict the future

25. 25Classification: Confidential
• Daily / weekly reported numbers of deaths from COVID-19
• The most material risk driver is age
• Other characteristics that seem to increase the risk of death includes obesity and diabetes
What we know

26. 26Classification: Confidential
• Will there be a second wave
• What will the patterns of deaths for the rest of 2020 look like
• When will we get a working vaccine and how quickly can it be distributed
• How long will any immunity last for
• What will be the impact of lockdown on deaths from other causes
• For insurance companies, what will be the impact on mortality rates of our portfolios
What we don’t know (yet…)

27. 27Classification: Confidential
Impacts in different time periods
SHORT TERM
Immediate financial
impacts
MEDIUM TERM
Impact on current
assumptions
LONGER TERM
Monitoring the emergence
of changes in trends

28. 28Classification: Confidential
Historic Age Standardised Mortality Rates (SMR) up to 2019
Data source: ONS England & Wales population data

29. 29Classification: Confidential
With a potential 2020 position…
Data source: ONS England & Wales population data

30. 30Classification: Confidential
What happens next?
Some Clever
Actuarial
Modelling
Data
The
Answer
What do Actuarial
Models say about
future mortality
levels?

31. 31Classification: Confidential
Can we still use historic data?
COVID-19
HISTORIC
FUTURE

32. 32Classification: Confidential
Future drivers of changes in mortality
• Flu vaccination
• Survivorship
bias
• NHS & social
care funding
• Handwashing
• Pollution
• Recession
• Long term
damage
• Treatment delay
• Falls in research
funding

33. 33Classification: Confidential
The future of Actuarial Models

34. 34Classification: Confidential
A Change of…

35. Douglas Anderson
Founder, Club Vita
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

36. Two nations divided by a common virus:
The socio-economic comparisons
Douglas Anderson FIA CERA FSA
Founder of Club Vita
June 4th, 2020

37. 37
Reduction in longevity inequality: 1842-2002
https://ourworldindata.org/health-inequality

38. 38
Club Vita’s UK
statistics reveal
widening life
expectancy since
the financial crisis.
2000-2016
Joint work with the PLSA
https://www.clubvita.co.uk/collaborative-research/trends
Lifeexpectancyfromage65

39. 39
2001-2014
Source: Chetty et al, “The association between income and life expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014”
https://healthinequality.org/documents/paper/healthineq_slides.pdf
Gap growing at rate of
1 year a decade
between top and
bottom income
quartiles.

40. 40
What’s happened since 2014
http://thenationshealth.aphapublications.org/content/49/1/1.2
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51316030
And then Covid19 started ….

41. 41
International comparisons
https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

42. 42
Covid variation within capital cities
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/coronavirus-map-countries-affected-covid-19-a4403081.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/nyregion/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases.html

43. 43
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-death-rate-uk-deprived-inequality-ons-latest-a9493716.html
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/22/how-coronavirus-impacts-certain-races-income-brackets-neighborhoods/3004136001/

44. 44
Riskiness of different jobs
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/whichoccupationshav
ethehighestpotentialexposuretothecoronaviruscovid19/2020-05-11

45. 45
Security guards
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/whichoccupationshav
ethehighestpotentialexposuretothecoronaviruscovid19/2020-05-11

46. 46
Actuaries
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/whichoccupationshav
ethehighestpotentialexposuretothecoronaviruscovid19/2020-05-11

47. 47https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52574931
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/world/europe/coronavirus-doctors-immigrants.html
Ethnicity

48. 48
Ethnicity
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-race-ethnicity-04162020-1.pdf

49. 49
https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1266/2020/05/20_jtc_pdw_nk_COVID19_MA-excess-
mortality_text_tables_figures_final_0509_with-cover-1.pdf

50. 50
Ethnicity, pre-existing conditions or lifestyle?
Source: OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients.
Multi-variate analysis of COVID-19 registered deaths using linked eHealth records

51. 51
Why Covid-19 outcomes are not uniform
Catch
the
disease
Need
hospital
treatment
Need
ICU
Die
Outcomes linked to socioeconomic groups and geographical location
https://www.clubvita.us/news-and-insights/vitamins-socioeconomic-effects-of-covid-19
• Population density
• Living near a travel hub
• Social obedience
• Type of work
Who will catch the
disease?
• Pre-existing conditions
• Age profile
• Lifestyle risk factors
• Poorer healthcare
Who will be worse
affected?

52. Club Vita LLP is an appointed representative of Hymans Robertson LLP, which is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority and licensed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries for a range of investment business activities.
Lang may yer lums reek
For more information:
www.clubvita.us
douglas.anderson@clubvita.net
+44 7788 376327
Club Vita US LLC
221 River Street 9th Floor,
Hoboken, NJ 07030

53. 53
International passenger footprint
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20091041v3.full.pdf

54. Ed Pudlowski
FCA, MAAA, ASA, President, MorningStar
Actuarial Consulting
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

55. NUMBERS MATTER -
CORONAVIRUS IN THE UK AND
US. WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT
HAPPENS NEXT
SPONSORED BY THE
INTERNATIONAL LONGEVITY
CENTRE-UK AND THE INSTITUTE
AND FACULTY OF ACTUARIES
ED PUDLOWSKI
MORNINGSTAR ACTUARIAL CONSULTING, LLC.
4 JUNE 2020

56. Downstream Effects On Health and Longevity
 Testing and Treatment of COVID-19
 Implications of Social Isolation Policies
56

57. US Daily New Case Trends
57
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
March10,2020
March12,2020
March14,2020
March16,2020
March18,2020
March20,2020
March22,2020
March24,2020
March26,2020
March28,2020
March30,2020
April1,2020
April3,2020
April5,2020
April7,2020
April9,2020
April11,2020
April13,2020
April15,2020
April17,2020
April19,2020
April21,2020
April23,2020
April25,2020
April27,2020
April29,2020
May1,2020
May3,2020
May5,2020
May7,2020
May9,2020
May11,2020
May13,2020
May15,2020
May17,2020
May19,2020
May21,2020
May23,2020
May25,2020
May27,2020
May29,2020
Daily New Cases of COVID-19 in the United States
New Cases

58. Hot Spots (trending up and > 500 cases)
58
Alabama
Arizona
Maryland
Minnesota
North Carolina
Texas
Virginia
California
Source: The New York Times

59. 1 With likely diagnostic testing and possible OTC drug prescription
2 Likely requiring post-discharge care
Infected
No Yes
Asymptomatic Symptomatic
Mild Severe
Emergency /
Urgent Care1
Physician Office
Visit1
Tele-medicine
Consult1
Non-ICU
Hospital
Admission
Sepsis2 ARDS2 ARDS with
Sepsis2
COVID-19
Test
Intensive Care
Unit Admission
COVID-19 Treatment Path

60. Downstream Effects On Health and Longevity
 Testing and Treatment of COVID-19
 Implications of Social Isolation Policies
60

61. 61

62. 62

63. 63

64. 64

65. 65

66. Outpatient services are rebounding
66
Source: Ateev Mehrotra et al., “The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Outpatient Visits: A Rebound Emerges,” To the Point (blog), Commonwealth Fund, May 19, 2020. https://doi.org/10.26099/ds9e-jm36
Outpatient Services

67. Change in Demand Due to Social Isolation
March December
Healthcare Utilization in
the Absence of COVID-19
Change in Demand Due to
Social Distancing and Fear
Pent-up Demand Affected by
Need, Desire, and Capacity
↓ Primary Care
↓ Emergency Room
↓ Lab Services
↓ Elective Surgeries
↑ Telemedicine
↑ Mental Health
↑ Substance Abuse
- Prescription Drugs
↑ Primary Care
↑ Emergency Room
↑ Lab Services
↑ Elective Surgeries
↑ Telemedicine
↑ Mental Health
↑ Substance Abuse
↑ Chronic Condition Management
Effect of Pandemic other
than COVID-19 Care

68. Downstream Effects of Social Isolation
on Health and Longevity
POSITIVE
• Reduction in Automobile Accidents
• Reduction in Other Accidents / Injuries
• Reduced Pollution Levels
• Increase in Telemedicine / Virtual Healthcare Visits
• Legislative Activity
NEGATIVE
• Lack of Chronic Condition Management:
• Heart / Cardiovascular Disease
• Diabetes
• Hypertension
• Cancers
• Behavioral Health:
• Anxiety / Depression
• PTSD
• Substance Abuse
• Domestic Violence
• Organ / Blood Donations
• Income Loss Effecting Healthcare Decisions
• Loss of Public Transportation Effects Access to Healthcare
• Physical Inactivity
• Poor Diets
68

69. 69
Thank You!
Ed Pudlowski
Ed.Pudlowski@MorningStarActuarial.com
+1 214-912-7334

70. Max Rudolph
FSA, CFA, CERA, Rudolph Financial Consulting
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

71. Numbers matter: Coronavirus in the UK and the US
What we know and what happens next
International Longevity Centre UK, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
MAX J. RUDOLPH, FSA, CFA, CERA, MAAA
Rudolph Financial Consulting, LLC
4 June 2020
@maxrudolph, max.rudolph@rudolph-financial.com

72. Links to reports
• SOA COVID-19 home page
• https://www.soa.org/programs/covid-19/research-
podcast/#research
• Primary report updated periodically, supplementary
reports, podcasts
• R. Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA
• Cynthia S. MacDonald, FSA, MAAA
• Lisa A. Schilling, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA
• Steven C. Siegel, ASA, MAAA
• J. Patrick Wiese, ASA
72

73. COVID-19 Mortality Rates per 100,000
0.13
0.02
0.03
0.22
1.18
3.37
9.52
23.03
53.94
136.64
406.41
24.79
0.28
0.02
1.90
25.78
102.41
365.29
1,135.0967.71
0.08
-
0.21
0.88
3.00
11.91
44.59
144.02
366.78
707.66
52.77
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90+
All Ages
Under 1 year
01-14
15-44
45-64
65-74
75-84
85+
All Ages
<1
1-4
5-14
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
All Ages
73
Data source: INED for Europe, CDC and U.S. Census Bureau for U.S. and ONS for U.K.
U.S.
@5/28/20
Italy
@5/28/20
0.05
0.10
0.50
1.02
2.78
9.41
34.50
125.26
365.92
799.72
43.63
0.04
0.04
0.28
1.01
2.68
9.73
27.39
72.78
211.68
434.88
27.55
0.01
0.03
0.09
0.19
0.64
2.15
7.77
24.75
82.84
198.09
357.94
10.24
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90+
All Ages
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90+
All Ages
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90+
100+
All Ages
Spain
@5/21/20
France @5/31/20
Germany
@5/31/20
U.K.
@5/26/20

74. U.S. Weekly Flu, Pneumonia and COVID-19
Deaths by Selected Flu Seasons
74
2009–10
2011–12
2014–15
2017–18
2020 COVID-19
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
Week ending 5/9

75. NYC Area Hospitalization Outcomes
75
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Age 0–9
Discharged
alive
Died
10–19 20–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 60–69 70–79 80–79 90+
Source: Richardson, Safiya, et al. (2020, April 22). “Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities and Out comes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area.”
JAMA. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

76. Health Insurance Type of Hospitalized COVID-
19 Patients in the NYC Area
76
Medicare,
42.4%
Commercial
33.1%
Medicaid,
21.2%
Self-pay 1.7% Other 1.7%
•Mix will vary by location
• Demographics
• Comorbidities
• Urban/rural
•Uninsured (self-pay)
seems low
Source: Richardson, Safiya, et al. (2020, April 22). “Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities and Out comes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area.”
JAMA. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

77. Potential US Natural Disaster Clusters
• Historical April-June
• Additional risk events stress
insurer solvency
• Protests are another form of
risk event
• may also be super spreader
events similar to WW1 war
bond parades in 1918
Flood 28%
Tornado 19%
Hail 14%
Storm 10%
Earthquakes 8%
Hurricanes 6%
Other 16%
77
Source: authors’ tabulations of SHELDUS loss data, 1980–2018

78. Impact on Actuarial Practice Areas
US CDC Moderate Pandemic Scenario (200,000 deaths)
78
Life Insurers
• Assets
• Interest rate guarantees
• Annuities drive business model
Pension Plans
• Assets – defaults/downgrades
• Returns
• Employment disruption
Health Insurers
• Likely short-term positive because
of deferred care
• LTC/Disability – longer term issues
Property/Casualty Insurers
• Contract language - interruption
• Legislation – systemic risk
• Auto refunds

79. Balance Sheet
CDC Moderate Pandemic Scenario (200,000 Deaths)
79
Look for Discontinuities
• Rules of thumb will no
longer work
• Use first principles for
strategic planning
Will central bank continue
as lender of last resort?
Likely Asset Problems
• Defaults
• Long-term low interest
rates
• Previous bets to pick up
yield (e.g., BBB-)
• Liquidity

80. Evolving Practices
80
Risk Management
• Scams/fraud
• Food security – higher order
Best Addressed With
Deterministic Stress Tests
• CDC Severe pandemic
scenario (2 million deaths)
• Negative rates
• Stagflation
• Geopolitics
• U.S. election November
2020
Health Care Practices
• Telemedicine
• Supply chain
• Isolation, mental health,
physical abuse

81. Summary of Risks
At Risk Work Services Large Groups Social encounters
Family members Packing plants Grocery store Rallies/protests Bars/clubs
Black/Latino Call centers Big box store Summer camps Restaurants
Comorbidities, old Factories Barber/salon Concerts/festivals Parties
Essential workers
(health care, police,
fire, grocery, delivery)
Work camps (e.g.,
construction, fracking)
Public transit (bus,
subway, plane)
Places of worship Gyms
Poverty Choirs
Nursing homes Contact sports
Dormitories/prisons
Outdoor air quality
81

82. Anna M. Rappaport
F.S.A., M.A.A.A.
Chair, Society of Actuaries Aging and Retirement
Steering Committee
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#NumbersMatter

83. Numbers matter: Coronavirus in the UK and the US
What we know and what happens next
International Longevity Centre UK, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
ANNA M. RAPPAPORT, FSA MAAA
Chair, SOA Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks
4 June 2020

84. What happened that may impact retirement
security and risks
• Many job losses, temporary layoffs and pay cuts
• Declines in equity values
• Many financially fragile individuals are in complete crisis
• Many deaths in communities that combine personal care and housing for
retirees
• Senior communities do not allow visitors during pandemic
• Decline in consumer confidence
• CARES* Act included liberalization of withdrawal and loan provisions
• Employees concerned about their retirement security, rightly so
*U.S. Federal legislation providing relief on COVID-19 issues
84

85. Short term – financially fragile employees
• Most do not have emergency funds, and if so, they are inadequate
• Employers with financial wellness programs will try to help
• Job performance is affected by their financial distress
• Concerns including paying rent, buying food
• Many have debt, often with high interest rates – credit cards or pay day loans
• Find ways to cut expenses
• Must set priorities and negotiate on mortgage and other debt
• If have retirement savings, be careful about using it immediately
• Want to get these people stabilized so that they can save for retirement
85

86. Short term – not financially fragile individuals
but nearing or in retirement
• Check what your situation is
• Do retirement projection
• Maybe cut expenses
• Make adjustments if need to investments, but often, none are needed
• Consider other sources of liquidity
• Recognize the importance of flexibility
• Scenario planning is recommended
86

87. Questions about the future of the retirement
system
• COVID-19 is a disruption and makes us rethink
• Do we have the right retirement system?
• Is too much risk with the employee?
• If employers don’t want more risk, should Social Security be increased?
• How can we improve emergency funds?
87

88. Family
• SOA research shows all generations feel obligations to family
• While it is not usually planned for, family help is important when limitations develop
• COVID-19 creates many challenges for family – working at home, children at home
• COVID-19 also increases need for help (e.g., seniors encouraged not to go shopping)
• Expect more families to help other family members in need
• Expect more multi-generational households
• Financially more seniors help adult children financially than reverse
• COVID-19 complicates caring for people at home, but also makes aging in place more
desirable
• COVID-19 will likely make it more difficult and more important
88

89. Work and retirement
• COVID-19 has led to major work disruption
• People may want to delay retirement – unclear if that will work out
• Work has been increasingly accepted as part of retirement
• More people will need/want to work as part of retirement – but it will likely be more difficult
• Work is often on a flexible or reduced schedule
• Few employers provide formal phased retirement programs
• It is usually up to people to figure it out on their own
• Many retirees work independently
• People are living longer and while retirement ages have crept up, retirement periods are
increasing
• Same issues as before but much more challenging
89

90. Housing that integrates care
CCRCs, Assisted Living, Nursing Homes, Independent Living
• Housing choices very important
• COVID-19 disruptions may lead to some changes in best housing choices
• Aging in place may be more valued (in light of bad experience in nursing homes and
assisted living)
• Some choices have substantial entry fees and traditionally offered a good life style with
access to care
• COVID-19 lockdowns meant people in senior housing were confined to rooms with
meals delivered, no visitors including no family
• Bad record of COVID-19 outbreaks in spite of lockdowns
• Problems include staff as a source of contagion, underpaid staff, inadequate PPE
90

91. Big future questions, but where is benefit
management now?
• Dealing with the short term
• HR is consumed with keeping employees saving, dealing with working at home issues,
layoffs, return to work issues, health problems and more, more, more…
• For those with financial wellness programs, helping employees find their way
• Deciding whether to add CARES provisions to DC plans (the Federal relief legislation
allows additional loans and hardship withdrawals if plan permits) and implementing
• Deciding whether to reduce contributions to DC plans and implementing
• Deciding whether to delay funding as permitted
• Not thinking about longer term retirement issues, but many are lurking
91

92. Resources – Society of Actuaries
• Home page https://www.soa.org/programs/covid-19/research-podcast/?homepagecard=
• Society of Actuaries Research Brief: Impact of COVID-19, May 15, 2020
• A COVID-19 Actuarial R0 Primer
• COVID-19 Trends by Hospital Referral Region
• COVID-19 Mortality Data Sources in the U.S
• Impact of COVID-19 on Family Dynamics in Retirement
• An Overview of Population Models of Epidemics
• Impact of COVID-19 on Deferred Medical Costs and Future Pent-Up Demand
• Impact of COVID-19 on Senior Housing and Support Choices
• Connecting Emerging COVID-19 Data to Insured Claims, updated April 23, 2020
• Projections of COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths, Updated April 24, 2020
• Mental Health Trends and COVID-19
• COVID-19 Costs to Commercial Health Insurers
• Impact of COVID-19 on Retirement Risks
92

93. Q&A
Please submit your questions to panellists via
the Q&A tab
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94. Closing remarks from Chair
Trevor Llanwarne, ILC Trustee
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95. Work with us
Business intelligence: we’ll give you advance notice of our latest research,
ad hoc briefings on areas of specific interest to your organisation, as well as a
discount on any research you commission from us.
Networks and connections: our Partners events have included visits to
Number 10, briefings with prominent influencers, as well as the opportunity to
meet ministers, policy experts and fellow Partners.
Brand benefits: as a Partner your brand will be visible through our numerous
events, press releases and presentations, and give you the opportunity to be
positioned at the heart of the debate on longevity.
For more information contact
Redvers Lee: redverslee@ilcuk.org.uk

96. Future of Ageing 2020:
Together for tomorrow – Delivering a
better society for all generations
Date: Thursday, 3 December 2020
Time: 9.00am (for 9.30am) - 5.30pm
Location: Wellcome Collection, 183 Euston
Road, NW1 2BE
Make the most of our early bird rate.
Register at: futureofageing.org.uk
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97. Thank you
ilcuk.org.uk @ilcuk
futureofageing.org.uk
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
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