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Livestock and Fish impact pathways and theory of change
This document is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported Licencc May 2013http://livestockfish.cgiar.orgLivestock and Fish impact pathways and theory of change1. Increased livestock productivity in small-scale production systems for the targetcommodities will contribute to improving food security and reducing householdpoverty at the system level (SLO2).2. Increased quantity of the target commodity supplied from the target small-scaleproduction and marketing systems will contribute primarily to improving foodsecurity (SLO2).3. Increased employment for women and men and equitable distribution of incometo low-income actors in the target value chains will directly contribute to reducingpoverty and improving food security at the household level (SLO1).4. The target commodities becoming responsible for filling a larger share of thenutrient gap for the poor, particularly for nutritionally vulnerable populations(women of reproductive age and young children), will contribute to achievingsystem changes in household nutrition and health (SLO3).5. Lower environment impacts and higher benefits per unit of commodity producedin the target value chains will lead to more sustainable management of naturalresources (SLO4).6. And finally, policies (including investments) and development actors recognizingand supporting the development of the pro-poor and gender-responsive small-scale production and marketing systems, and seeking to participation within thesevalue chains, will contribute to all four outcomes at the system level (SLO2).Livestock and Fish Intermediate Development OutcomesAchieving the program goal of more milk, meat and fish by and for the poor through 2 impact pathways:1. Delivery through carefully selected value chainsKey assumptions• Addressing whole value chain will improve relevance, uptake andeffectiveness of innovations.• Focus and targeting will increase efficiency and the probability ofachieving proof at scale.• Implementation of demand driven innovations in the right valuechains with partners will accelerate the program’s progresstowards achieving outcomes and impact.• A significant numbers of pre-commercial smallholders canbecome market oriented and intensify production sustainably.• Pro-poor value chains can compete and generate sufficientincentives to promote investment in intensification.• The poor rely on animal-source food produced locally bysmallholders and from less formal marketing channels.• The poor will consume more animal source foods if availabilityand access of products improves from those systems.• Increased and equitable consumption of animal source foods willimprove nutrition and health.Key assumptionsKey risksKey risks• Focusing on a few value chains might limit geographical spread ofresearch benefits.• Social inequalities bar women and other marginalized groupsfrom taking up innovations, limiting achievement of outcomes atscale.• High transaction costs of managing a complex network ofpartnerships.• Income and gender inequalities are exacerbated due to programimplementation.• Work on localized solutions can generate regional and global publicgoods.• Focus and targeting will increase the probability of achieving proof atscale.• Implementation of appropriate innovations in the right value chains withpartners will accelerate the program’s progress towards achievingoutcomes and impact.• Focusing on a few value chains might limit geographical spread ofresearch benefits.• High transaction costs of managing a complex network of partnerships.2. Delivery through production of International Public Goods (IPGs)