Foresight activities in the CO and CRPs - Marie Gasquet

1. Foresight activities
in the Consortium Office
and in the CRPs
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
CGIAR Consortium Office and Cirad
ISPC, 16 September 2015

2. Strategic foresight
And
Scientfic foresight
ISPC, 16 September 2015

3. What is foresight?
Anticipation
Appropriation Action
AN ATTITUDE
A PROCESS
Alerting: a systemic and
multidisciplinary
approach
Participatory, collective
work and intelligence
to explore together
possible futures
Acting to create the
most desirable future.
A help to make choices .
ISPC, 16 September 2015

4. FREEDOM
Many possible futures
 Monitor the realities
 Look under the radar
POWER
No choice
or no more the choice?
Will
WILL
“There is no fair wind for
one who knows not whither
he is bound” (Seneca)
The future: something to be created
ISPC, 16 September 2015

5. Levels of granularities of foresights vary
Geograhical
scale
Global
Continent
Sub continent
Country
Local
Fonction Commodities/AFS Science Megatrends Thematic
Feed, transport,, Rubber, cocoa, forest, , Demography, climate scale
Land use, energy irrigation
Land use Sénégal Forest Landes Gascogne
The future of food security,
environments and livelihoods in
Eastern Africa
The future of food and farming
Agrimonde GIEC
UNEP emerging environmental issues
Now for the long term
Forêts Bassin du Congo
Perspectives agricoles
Aquatic agricultural systems ?
Global livestock pdtion systems
Filière équine française
The Protein puzzle (NL)
Time
+ 5
+ 100
ISPC, 16 September 2015

6. Foresight methods vary and evolve
Economy
Environnement Society
Qualitative approach: vision, scenarios with narratives, etc.
Quantitative
approach
Models : BAU,
what if
Modèles, par
ex IMPACT,
GLOBIOM,
MAgPIE,
GTEM, etc.
ISPC, 16 September 2015

7. Strategic foresight:
Looking back to imagine future challenges
What changed in the
past 20 to 40 years?
What is currently
changing?
What could change in the
next 20 to 40 years?
Possible
futures
Desirable
futures
Normative
desired
future
Breakthroughs
Seeds of change
Uncertainties
What is the
situation
today?
LT tendencies
Bruntland
Report
2000 2015 2050
Increasing consciouness
that resources are limited
Belief that resources
are unlimited.
Systemic approach
ISPC, 16 September 2015

8. Examples of
strategic foresight exercices
• Carried out by institutions to define their own strategy or
that of their members but can be widely available:
– CIRAD 2015
– French Ministry of Agriculture: Agriculture and energy 2030
(2011)
– PROSPER: The job of a researcher in French public research
organizations in 2030 (2015).
– Global donor platform for rural development : Prospects.
Agriculture and rural development assistance in the post-2015
development framework (2014)
– WEC: World Energy Scenarios. Composing energy futures to
2050 (2013)
– CIRAD and INRA: Agrimonde (2010)
– UK Government Office for Science: The Future of Food and
Farming: Challenges and choices for global sustainability (2011)
ISPC, 16 September 2015

9. Examples of
strategic foresight questions for the CGIAR
• The CGIAR system in 2035
• National researchers of developing countries
and CGIAR researchers in 2030: who will they
be? What type of research projects? Which
funding? What evaluations? What
motivations?.
• Urban and rural relationships: products,
labour, markets, infrastructures
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10. Scientific foresight
Source : European Science Foundation (2013):
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Goal: To identify research topics with highest knowledge
Expectation and transformational / breakthrough potential.
Focus:
• Promote high-quality research
• Promote highest knowledge expectation (revolutionary
change, new paradigm)
• Develop visions and perspectives for research disciplines,
interdisciplinarity, themes, topics.
• To improve program design and focus
• To improve portfolio
• To set priorities, strategies, coordinated action plans

11. Examples of
scientific foresight exercices
• ANR – What research on agricultural soils ? (2013)
• CNRS –Functional Ecology (2012) ; Chemical Ecology (2012); law,
ecology and economy of biodiversity (2015)
• ICSU (2012): Scientific Relations Between Academia and Industry.
• US Committee on Key Challenge Areas (2014) - Convergence:
Facilitating Transdisciplinary Integration of Life Sciences, Physical
Sciences, Engineering and Beyond
• Buytaert et al. (2014) : Citizen science in hydrology and water
resources: opportunities for knowledge generation, ecosystem
service management, and sustainable development
ISPC, 16 September 2015

12. Examples of
scientific foresight questions for the CGIAR
• ISPC (2013): urbanization and farm size
• One Health concept (not only than pathogens
agents)
• Sustainable intensification: what does it mean in
terms of scientific approaches?
• The use of ICT and GIS in agriculture: assets and
limits.
• The role of women in agricultural production and
food commercialization in 2030: consequences
for research programs
ISPC, 16 September 2015

13. Foresight activities
in the CO and the CRPs
ISPC, 16 September 2015

14. GCARD 2012: What the CGIAR want to do
Source: GFAR from forward thinking to forward acting
http://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/forward_thinking-forward_acting_final.pdf
ISPC, 16 September 2015

15. CO on-going foresight activities
ISPC, 16 September 2015
• MOU between the CGIAR CO and Cirad (8-2013) : to
work in a participatory manner to:
– Design a process for improving the SRF through the
utilization of results of foresight exercises
– Develop a foresight culture and a strategic intelligence
system within the CRPS.
– Identify topics of interest for a foresight exercise at CGIAR
consortium level and contribute to the coordination of the
foresight exercise(s).
• Actions:
– Work in Science Team (contribution to SRF, analysis of
CRPs…)
– Foresight briefs
– Meetings with CRPs, interactions between “foresighters”

16. 9 Foresight briefs
1. March 2014 : 11 documents presented
2. April 2014 : 8 documents presented
3. May 2014: 11 documents presented
4. June 2014 : Messages from foresight exercises on the general context of AR4D (M.
de Lattre-Gasquet, J. Vervoort, J. Ekboir)
5. July 2014 : Messages from foresight exercises on complexity and systems approach
in science (M. de Lattre-Gasquet, C. Ballard, J. Vervoort, J. Ekboir)
6. September 2014: Messages from foresight exercises on science (M. de Lattre-
Gasquet, C. Ballard, J. Ekboir, J. Vervoort)
7. October 2014: From Open Access to Open Science (M. de Lattre-Gasquet and M.C.
Deboin)
8. December 2014 – January 2015: The futures of phosphorus and nitrogen: a reason
to think again about agronomy? (M. de Lattre-Gasquet, H. Saint Macary and T.
Brunelle)
9. May 2015: Sustainable food and agrifood systems (M. de Lattre-Gasquet and B.
Hubert) ISPC, 16 September 2015

17. Goals and foresight methods in CRPs
ISPC, 16 September 2015
Goals
• Identify potential opportunities/threats and game changers;
• Assess how major drivers will alter AFS in the developing world
• Assess future needs of producers and consumers and implications
for innovations.
• Assess current and anticipated impact of research
• Guide research leaders in investing scarce resources in areas of
great potential
• To ensure demand orientation and learning for RBM
Methods:
• All CRPs : Modelling (Global Futures and IMPACT model)
• CCAFS: Focused on guiding change in decision-making
• Fish and livestock: multi-scale approach, plausible development
pathways

18. To identify and
facilitate changes,
and decision making
in complex systems
Anticipation Appropriation Action
• Concentrating on the long-term
• Revealing uncertainties
• Help identifying challenges and
research topics and approaches
with breakthrough potentials
• Anticipating development
outcomes
• Communication
between varied
stakeholders
• Empowering
smallholders
• Building consensus
on a shared vision
• New research
priorities and funding
• New policies
• Risk management
Foresight is an attitude and a process
ISPC, 16 September 2015

19. Thank you for
your attention
ISPC, 16 September 2015