Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue NileWater-Food-Energy Nexus in the context of groundwater use in India: Experience from three Indian States
A presentation by Matthew McCartney, Michael Girma and Solomon Demissie
Presented at the AFRICA2013 conference in Addia Ababa, Ethiopia, 16-18 April 2013.
Connector Corner: Accelerate revenue generation using UiPath API-centric busi...
Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue Nile
1. Implications of climate change on existing
and planned water resource development in
the Upper Blue Nile
AFRICA 2013 Conference: 16-18 April 2013
Matthew McCartney, Michael Girma and Solomon Demissie
2. • Simulate water demand for major production activities
(existing and planned)
• Evaluate the possible implications of CC on water
resources/scheme performance (how do long-term
benefits change?)
• Assess impacts of water resources development and
CC on river flows
Objectives
3. Modeling
Climate change simulation (CCLM)
• temperature
• rainfall
• potential evapotranspiration
Hydrological modeling (SWAT)
• actual evapotranspiration
• groundwater recharge
• river flow
Water Resources Modeling (WEAP)
• irrigation
• hydropower
• river flow
4. Application of WEAP
• Water accounting model (mass balance) –
simulates water use across a range of
demands
• Data from:
– MoWR/EEPCo/NMA
– Basin Master Plans
– Irrigation efficiency studies
– New scheme feasibility studies
• Simulation 1983-2100 (monthly time step)
5. Development Scenarios
A1B scenario run with three development scenarios:
• Current Development (baseline)
• Intermediate Development: Planned development
(feasibility studies)
• Full Development: Potential development
(Basin Master Plans)
7. Existing and Planned schemes
Current
Development
Intermediate
Development
Full
Development
Irrigation (ha) 15,345 272,018 364,355
Hydropower (MW) 218 2,194 10,276
Storage (Bm3) 11.6 70.2 167
14. Hydropower (2)
Current Development Intermediate Development Full Development
Electricity
Generated
(GWhy-1)
% of
potential
Electricity
Generated
(GWhy-1)
% of
potential
Electricity
Generated
(GWhy-1)
% of
potential
1983-2012 1,397 100 12,814 98 40,803 91
2021-2050 1,390 100 12,962 99 44,245 98
2071-2100 1,138 82 8,422 64 28,449 63
15. Lake Tana: water levels
1,783
1,784
1,785
1,786
1,787
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Waterlevel(masl)
Lake Tana: average annual water level
Currentdevelopment Intermediate Development Full Development
16. Flows
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Flow(m3s-1)
Annual flowat Kessie
Current development Intermediate Development Full Development
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Flow(m3s-1) Annual flow at the Ethiopia-Sudanborder
Current development Intermediate Development Full Development
18. Conclusions
• Combining climate, hydrological and water resources
models provides a useful tool to assess the possible
water resource implications of CC.
• Results indicate:
• long time horizon for full effect of climate change
(“end of the century“)
• considerable spatial variability in hydrological
impacts of CC
• clear trends but increasing variability in many
hydrological variables
• Mid-range climate change is likely to impact the
performance of planned irrigation and hydropower
schemes significantly by the end of the 21st century.