Presented by IWMI's Luna Bharati (Principal Researcher/Team Leader DJB) at the Digo Jal Bikas project wrap-up workshop held in Kathmandu, Nepal on March 13, 2019. More info: http://djb.iwmi.org/
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Sustainable, Just and Productive Water Resources Development in Western Nepal Under Current and Future Conditions
1. SUSTAINABLE, JUST AND PRODUCTIVE WATER RESOURCES
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN NEPAL UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE
CONDITIONS
1
Dr. Luna Bharati
Principal Researcher/Team Leader DJB
IWMI
March 13, 2019 | Kathmandu
2. 2
Nepal: The Water Context
If water resource is properly harnessed, it would be the ticket out of poverty
through economic growth mainly in the hydropower and agriculture sectors.
Water resources (WR) remain under-developed
– Less than 7% of available WR are managed for socio-economic purposes
(WECS, 2010)
– 2.5 % of economically feasible hydropower potential (42000 MW)
harnessed (NEA, 2018)
– 30% of arable land is irrigated (CBS, 2012)
– 22% of groundwater utilized in Terai (Shrestha et al., 2018)
– Crop productivity is significantly lower than rest of South Asia (Bartett et
al., 2010)
6. 6
Water Resource Planning
Adapted from: Harou, 2014
Should ideally meet
demands and achieve
various societal objectives
(‘balanced’) under a wide
range of plausible futures
(‘robust’)
Main Challenge:
A shared vision to
develop a
basin/country that is
robust and balanced
7. 7
OBJECTIVESDigo Jal Bikas
Construction of Sound
Knowledgebase
Development & Applications of
Tools, Models & Approaches
Support the Development of
Integrated Policy & Management
Goal: Promote sustainable WRD in Western Nepal through
balancing future vision, economic growth, social justice and healthy
& resilient ecosystems
TEAM
Lead: IWMI
Collaborators:
Kathmandu University
NWCF
Duke University
10. 10
Basin Highlights – Based on 3660 Households
Surveyed
Women primarily (62%)
responsible for water collection
47% have access to piped water
systems
Primarily smallholder farming
systems-Average landholding (0.5
ha )
16% female headed households
69% engaged in NRM related
groups/committees, only 22% female
membership
Over 50% reported drought, followed
by hailstorm, untimely rain
Only 3.3% reported support services
following climate induced disasters
61% rain-fed agriculture
5.8% own improved ag technical
equipment
Average annual income is NPR
93,531
11. 11
Water Availability Assessment | Outputs
• P =1,332 mm
• Q =1,004 mm
• AET =474 mm
Water
Balance
Variation
Across
Physiographic
Regions
12. 12
Future Projections
Trends noticed:
– Temperature increases
consistently
– Increase in
precipitation variability
209@Plain 207@Plain
406@Hill 513@Hill
202@Mountain 303@Mountain
DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF
0
200
400
0
200
400
0
200
400
Seasonal Change for pr
DPrecipitaion[%]
Climate
Scenarios
RCP4.5_NF_Low Risk
RCP4.5_NF_Consensus
RCP4.5_MF_Low Risk
RCP4.5_MF_Consensus
RCP4.5_FF_Consensus
RCP8.5_NF_Low Risk
RCP8.5_NF_Con
RCP8.5_MF_Con
209@Plain
406@Hill
202@Mountain
DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual
0
4
8
12
0
4
8
12
0
4
8
12
DMaxTemperature°C
Climate
Scenarios
RCP4.5_NF_Low Risk
RCP4.5_NF_Consensus
209@Plain 207@Plain 405@Plain
406@Hill 513@Hill 514@Hill
202@Mountain 303@Mountain 104@Hill
DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF MAM JJAS O
0
200
400
0
200
400
0
200
400
Seasonal Change for pr
DPrecipitaion[%]
Climate
Scenarios
RCP4.5_NF_Low Risk
RCP4.5_NF_Consensus
RCP4.5_MF_Low Risk
RCP4.5_MF_Consensus
RCP4.5_FF_Consensus
RCP8.5_NF_Low Risk
RCP8.5_NF_Consensus
RCP8.5_MF_Consensus
RCP8.5_FF_Consens
RCP8.5_FF_High Ris
Higher temperatures, prolonged monsoon
and sporadic rain events even in drier
months are projected
13. 13
Visions for Development in Western Nepal
State-led development
– Development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects
Local demand-driven development:
– Priority to municipal water supply, small hydro, farmer-managed
irrigation schemes
Preserving ecosystem integrity:
– Priority to environmental conservation and development leveraging
natural assets
→ Visions inform scenarios analysis: Full infrastructure, limited infrastructure,
and environmental development
15. 15
Potential Trade-Offs and Tensions
Energy Generation
Large-scale/storage plants for
export vs. small plants for
domestic demand and rural
electrification
Findings: Storage generates
much more power and revenue
Hydropower and irrigation
Storage hydropower for vs.
water for agricultural production
Findings: Very little tradeoff in
Nepal (Storage elevates year-
round irrigation water
availability)
Environmental
Impacts of environmental flow
constraints
Findings: More stringent E-flows
reduces ag. and energy
production
Institutional
Energy for domestic demands
or export; transboundary water
flows Findings: Tradeoff in local
vs. export consumption of
energy; some tradeoff from Terai
irrigation vs. flow into India
16. Targeting small holder farmers to improve dry season irrigation via
climate smart technology
Agriculture: A conduit for socio-economic transformation
17. 17
Walking the Talk
GESI Framework:
– Gender analysis was done community and
organizational level
GESI is a fringe issue in government agenda
– Restricted only to policy level
“Water resources are not gender-
specific. Water resources are
natural resources. It is not relevant
to gender. We cannot say that
there should be gender-friendly
water extraction
-Male engineer, Government
19. 19
Impact and Legacy
Novel approaches were developed, applied- e.g.. E-flows, masculinity
workshop, participatory gender training, HEM, Climate Futures
analysis
The hydrological models are being applied in the National Irrigation
Master Plan
The E-flows Assessment will also be incorporated into the Irrigation
Master Plan
All project generated data, tools, models and publications will be
available through the IWMI water data portal as well as the DJB
project website:
– http://waterdata.iwmi.org/
– http://djb.iwmi.org/
20. 20 20
Acknowledgements: This study is made possible by the
generous support of the American people through the
United States Agency for International Development
(USAID) under Digo Jal Bikas (DJB) project.
Thank
You
IWMI is a CGIAR center focused on research for
development. CGIAR is a global research partnership
for a food-secure future. Its work is carried out by 15
research centers in collaboration with hundreds of
partners across the globe.
Notes de l'éditeur
Knowledgebase: Current state & use of ecosystem & their services; CC impact at basin & local levels;
Tools/Models: hydrologic models; Hydro-economic models; E-flow calculator; InVEST model; etc.
Integrated Policy & Mgmt. Guideline: on options & technologies for sustainable infrastructure at various scales.
Low access to land and water
High levels of male out migration
Women: primary users but low representation within users committees
High level of group engagements with moderate level trust
Reports of increased climatic stress in the past decade with low level of support services
AET = 36% of P
The bias-corrected projections considering change in climate for near (2021-2045), mid (2046-2070) and far (2071-2095) futures relative historical (1981-2005) observations at 9 stations show that:
(3660 households)
In groups: Positive correlation between level of trust and monthly payment
GESI framework adopted by this research focus on women’s agency in terms of their increased capabilities to access and decide on water resource management issues; whether the means of resources necessary for this capability are present, such as access to information, knowledge, services, policy making etc. whether the conditions to be capable such as water resource needs are being met ; whether people have access to education, political participation, community activities that support them to cope with water quality and scarcity and improve quality of their wellbeing.
Deepa: Could you add one single, powerful finding from your study?