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Ian Miles
Ian Miles

presentation on Foresight philosophy and approaches to major stakeholder conference on freight transport

BusinessTechnologieFormation
1  sur  17
Driving and Delivering Foresight: Why? How? What for? Ian Miles MIoIR, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, UK [email_address]
Definitions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Looking ahead – for significant things Relating future opportunities and threats to current capabilities and strategies We all do this : but how systematically? How long –term and challenging? Using what resources and pooled resources? How embedded into culture? into action?
A Paradox? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Paradox? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Not Really! Crisis economy: more sorts of knowledge relevant to sustainable recovery Policy Technology External factors Denial: ignore “weak” signals Environment Energy Finance Knowledge-driven economy: more sorts of knowledge about a wider range of issues Technologies Markets Globalisation
Foresight – 1990s on ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],National (and other mainly government-funded programmes emerged in Europe mid-1990s. Common elements are that Foresight: Foresigh t in Science John Irvine and Ben Martin “”””””””””””””””
Contemporary Foresight Programmes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three Main Components Beyond the usual suspects: distributed knowledge and governance Beyond the ivory tower: analysis for (and with) policy users, within policy processes Beyond the business plan : responding to longer-term, boundary-crossing issues. Prospectives Planning Participation
Why has Foresight taken off? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Uses of Foresight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Deliverables, reports Decisions, connections
How? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Intelligent Infrastructure Futures OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
How? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Throughout: networking, knowledge exchange, coordination - not just dissemination
What Foresight can and cannot Achieve ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
End of Presentation
France’s Scenario Study
July 2008
Freight varies much more across Scenarios than Passenger Transport Road remains dominant, though other modes grow
UK Foresight Programme Accepting of integrated intelligent infrastructure Low impact transport High impact transport Resistant to integrated intelligent infrastructure Intelligent Infrastructure Futures OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT

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2009 Freightvision Miles

  • 1. Driving and Delivering Foresight: Why? How? What for? Ian Miles MIoIR, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, UK [email_address]
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  • 7. Three Main Components Beyond the usual suspects: distributed knowledge and governance Beyond the ivory tower: analysis for (and with) policy users, within policy processes Beyond the business plan : responding to longer-term, boundary-crossing issues. Prospectives Planning Participation
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  • 16. Freight varies much more across Scenarios than Passenger Transport Road remains dominant, though other modes grow
  • 17. UK Foresight Programme Accepting of integrated intelligent infrastructure Low impact transport High impact transport Resistant to integrated intelligent infrastructure Intelligent Infrastructure Futures OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT