The UK Foresight Programme has been widely lauded. But how is it valued by the current government? This presentation examines trends in the Programme, which suggest that forebodings expressed in 2010 have proved accurate.

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Foresight in the UK 1994-2014
Impacts and Insights.
Ian Miles
Research Laboratory for Economics of Innovation
Higher School of Economics - National Research University
Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
Higher School of Economics Moscow 2014
www.hse.ru
HSE Annual Conference on Foresight and STI Policy

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Overview
• The Current Context
• The UK Foresight Programme – brief history
• Uses of results in STI policy
• Horizon Scanning
• Foresight beyond the Foresight Programme

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Economic Crisis and Foresight
....
Abstract
Conclusions

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Foresight in Hindsight
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pre
Foresight Technology
Foresight –
Foresight First
Cycle
Foresight
Second
Cycle Foresight Third Cycle ????
Office of S&T (1992-2006) of Science & Innovation (2006-7)
Located: till 1995 Cabinet Office
Department of Trade and Industry till 2006
Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills till 2007..
Office of
Chief
Scientist
D.E.S.
Science
Office
Gvnmnt. Office for Science.
Located: Department of
Business, Innovation & Skills
Party in Power: Coalition:
Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair to 2007, then Brown) Con-Dem

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Early Foresight
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pre
Foresight Technology
Foresight –
Foresight First
Cycle
Office of S&T (1992-2006)
Located: till 1995 Cabinet Office
Department of Trade and Industry.
Office of
Chief
Scientist
D.E.S.
Science
Office
Party in Power:
Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair)
•Informing major decisions about
R&D funding.
•Sectoral/Technological panels with
some common methodology and
orientation.
•Substantial impacts on priorities.
•But also: “wiring up of national
innovation system”.
•Much learning embedded into major
ministries and senior policymaking
• Widely acclaimed.
"We consider Foresight to be a
long overdue attempt to address
the UK's failure to turn excellence
in basic research into industrial
success. We want to make sure
that its momentum is not lost".

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Foresight, Interrupted
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Foresight
Second
Cycle
Office of S&T (1992-2006)
Located: Department of
Trade and Industry..
Party in Power: Coalition:
Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair to 2007, then Brown) Con-Dem
•Intended to carry on
Foresight mission – but
with new staffing.
•Numerous panels and
WGs, with little
common methodology
•Hope of using new
web-based media.
•Quality of panel work
challenged.
•Topics “lacked
ownership” in DTI
•Programme reviewed,
and found to be
mismatched to the
Foresight mission.

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Foresight Rebooted – the Third Cycle
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Foresight Third Cycle ????
Office of S&T (1992-2006) of Science & Innovation (2006-7)
Located: Department of Trade and Industry till 2006
Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills till 2007..
Gvnmnt. Office for Science.
Located: Department of
Business, Innovation & Skills
Party in Power: Coalition:
Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair to 2007, then Brown) Con-Dem
•Moved away from wide-spectrum
Foresight, to more Focused Foresight
projects directed at specific themes
•Aimed for impact by enlisting senior
policymakers into leading roles
• A few cases of limited impact but
many projects highly influential.
•Location subject to wider politics.
2004 OST Horizon
Scanning Centre
in Foresight Unit

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Projects (typically c2 years)
• Cognitive Systems2003
•Cyber trust and crime prevention
•Exploiting the electromagnetic
spectrum
•Future flooding
2004
• Drugs futures 20252005
• Infectious diseases
• Intelligent infrastructure
futures
2006
• Reducing obesity2007
• Mental capital &
wellbeing2008
• Land use futures2010
• Migration & global env. change
• International dimensions of climate
change
• Future of food and farming
2011
• Future of computer
trading in financial
markets
2012
• Future of
manufacturing2013
• Current projects on Cities and Ageing

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Impacts?
Each project produced a one-year
review of uptake; major projects
success documented more broadly
– cf. Also Newsletters
....
Yes, and beyond UK
and in STI and more
widely

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Third Cycle Foresight – beyond projects
Policy Future
projects:
shorter studies
of hot policy
topics, e.g.
Disaster
preparedness
Horizon
Scanning
2004 on
Website at
foresight.gov.uk, 2008

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HSC within Foresight (2009)

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Foresight website
• The website has moved locations
– www.foresight.gov.uk (1990s – 2010)
– www.bis.gov.uk/foresight (2010-13)
– www.gov.uk/government/collections/foresight-
projects (2014)
• The content has changed
– Now two projects are running, on same scale as
previous ones (but less systematically)
– Horizon Scanning as a separate stream in GO-
Science, with separate leadership.

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Foresight.gov.uk website
January 2010 August 2010

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Foresight at BIS website
January 2011 February 2012

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Foresight at BIS website 2
April 2013 March 2014

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Foresight website at gov.uk
March 2014 October 2014

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Foresight: late
2014
https://www.gov.uk/government/
organisations/government-
office-for-science

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Affirmation
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-
david-willetts-to-the-uk-science-park-association

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Foresight and Oversight – 1 (2006)
• Interviews with stakeholders
• examined 5 completed
projects plus ongoing ones
• Picture mixed, with one
project having major problems
of traction (change in political
leadership, controversy of
topic), but most having
considerable policy impact
• Impact broader than STI
alone, but substantial
influence on these areas.

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Foresight and Oversight – 2 (2007)
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmselect/cmpubadm/123
/123i.pdf

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Foresight and Oversight – 3 (2014)

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Scanning the Horizon?
http://www.parliament.uk/business
/committees/committees-a-
z/commons-select/science-and-
technology-
committee/news/140504-ghs-
report-published/

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Foresight and/or Horizon Scanning
• The two seem to be separated (again)
• S&T Foresight in GO-Science – but projects are
driven by social agenda (cities, ageing)
– Meanwhile applied R&D funding informed by
other means
• HS in Cabinet Office for broad strategy

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Foresight in Hindsight - 2
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pre
Foresight
Foresight First
Cycle
2nd
Cycle
Foresight Third Cycle ????
Strategy Unit
PIU
Cabinet
Office
Horizon
Scanning
DEFRA HS from
2002
- & some other
Gvt. departments
Horizon Scanning

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Horizon Scanning 2014 – Cabinet Office
and GO-Science Response to
critique

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Active Teamwork
https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/horizon-scanning-programme-team

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Tools in the
Policy Process

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Toolkit 2014 (beta version)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts

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Meanwhile: Applied R&D Funding
Collaborative Research and Development,
SBRI (the Small Business Research Initiative),
Knowledge Transfer Partnerships,
Launchpad competitions
and overseas missions.
Innovation Platforms - an approach to innovation which harnesses the
activities government departments use to address societal challenges
to stimulate innovative solutions within UK businesses.
From 2010 transferred from Regional Development Agencies - Grant
for Research & Development (now branded as Smart); Innovation
Vouchers

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Innovate (TSB) - 2012

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Catapult Centres
Core funding, Business funding, Joint Projects
2015:
“Physical centres for innovation that connect businesses with the UK’s research
and academic communities.” https://www.catapult.org.uk/home
Solihull Guy's Hospital, Glasgow Harwell Science &
London Innovation Campus
King's Cross, Borough Milton Keynes
London

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Conclusions
• Foresight Programme has had a major impact on
UK STI
• In C21st impact on cross-governmental
coordination around certain key areas, and some
impact on broader STI communities in these
areas, and on other countries and IGOs
• Recurrent confusion and conflict around role of
separate Horizon Scanning activity
• “Evidence-based policy” is still asserted - in
principle affirming need for such expertise.

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END OF PRESENTATION