1. ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻌﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺴ‬‫ـﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻭﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬:
‫ﻤﺫﻜﺭﺓ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ‬
‫ﻓ‬‫ـ‬‫ﺭﻉ‬:‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁــﺎﻟﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬:‫ﺇﺸﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘ‬‫ﺎﺫ‬‫ﺓ‬:
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬‫ﺒﻥ‬‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺼﺩﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺠﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺃ‬.‫ﺩ‬.‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﻟﻔﻲ‬.....................‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﺎ‬
‫ﺩ‬.‫ﻤﻠﻴﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺩﻴﻘﻲ‬....................‫ﻤﻘﺭﺭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺴﻌﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺎﺏ‬....................‫ﻋﻀﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺴﻜﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻥ‬...................‫ﻋﻀﻭﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬.......................‫ﻋﻀﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬
2009/2010
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
bensaidamine.yolasite.com
bensaidamine.yolasite.com
bensaidamine.yolasite.com

3. ‫ﺷﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺠﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﻓﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺸﻜﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺤﺎﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﷲ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‬.
‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻟﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺘﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﺭﻓﻨﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺎﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻠﻴﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺩﻴﻘﻲ‬.
‫ﻷ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﺯﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺘﻘﺩﻡ‬‫ﻗﺒﻭﻟﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻀﺎﺀ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻗﺩﻤﺕ‬‫ﻟﻲ‬.
‫ﻁﻴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻜﻠﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻭ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻋﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﺘﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬.

4. ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺪﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻴﻤﻴﻥ‬‫ﻭﺠل‬ ‫ﻋﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎ‬ ‫؛‬
‫ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺭﺒﻴﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺤﻤﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺭﺏ‬.

5. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬
bensaidamine.yolasite.com
bensaidamine.yolasite.com

6. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬..............................................................................................................................................................
I
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺭﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻤﺔ‬‫ﺸﻜﺭ‬...............................................................................
‫ﺍﻹﻫﺩﺍﺀ‬...................................................................................
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺭﺱ‬..................................................................................
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬............................................................................
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬.....................................................................
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬............................................................................
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬............................................................................‫ﺃ‬-‫ﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬:‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬..................................................................................2
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍ‬‫ﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬...........................................3
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬...............................................3
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬:‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬....................................7
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬.................................15
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬1929-1933...........................15
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺃﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ‬1987.................................................20
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬..................................26
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬:‫ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬..................................26
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬..............................43
‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬...............................................................................51
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬:‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬................................................................................53
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬:‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ‬‫ﻟﻠ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬........................54
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل‬.....................................................54
‫ﺍﻟﺜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺎﻨﻲ‬:‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺁﻟﻴﺔ‬.......................63
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬...............................................74
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ‬............................................74
‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ‬..........................................80
bensaidamine.yolasite.com

7. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬..............................................................................................................................................................
II
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭ‬................................92
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ‬..........................92
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻔﺤﺎل‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬.................................98
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺝ‬ ‫ﺴﺒل‬.....................................104
‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬................................................................................110
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺮ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬..................................................................................112
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬....................113
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬.....................................................113
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬...................................................120
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬.................................................124
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬..................................................130
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬............................130
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬.....................................136
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻱ‬...................................142
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬........................................145
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬..................................145
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬............................................150
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻙ‬..............................154
‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬...............................................................................165
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺘﻤﺔ‬............................................................................166
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬............................................................................171
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬.............................................................................189
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8. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬..............................................................................................................................................................
III
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬
1.1‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬.............................12
2.1‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬‫ﺨﻼل‬‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬1987...22
3.1‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺒﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬‫ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺭ‬..............32
1.2‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ‬..60
2.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺯ‬............................................67
3.2‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬‫ﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ‬200696
4.2‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻜﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺔ‬MBS.................97
5.2
‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬
MBS‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬2006...............................................................97
6.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻤﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬)CDO.....................................(102
7.2‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﺍﺨﻴل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬)2006/2007(...............104
8.2‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬................................108
1.3‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬.....................................117
2.3‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬.......................................................127
3.3‫ﺍﻟﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭل‬..........................128
4.3‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬7G....................................132
5.3
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺨﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬.....................................................................164
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9. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬..............................................................................................................................................................
IV
‫ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬
1.1‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬...........................................................14
1.2‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬............................................................59
2.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬..............................................61
3.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬.........................70
4.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬..................................................................70
5.2‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ‬M1...............................................................75
6.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ‬.......................................76
7.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬.................................................................77
8.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬........................................78
9.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬..............................................................79
10.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬...............................................83
11.2‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬....................................................86
12.2‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﺭﻴﺢ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬..................................88
13.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻠﺴل‬.....................................................91
14.2‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺯل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬..............................................99
15.2‫ﺇﻓﻼﺱ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ‬...........................100
1.3‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬.......................................114
2.3‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺔ‬........................122
3.3‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬..........................................126
4.3‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬..........................................129
5.3‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬................................................132
6.3‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬...............................134
7.3‫ﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬.................150
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10. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬..............................................................................................................................................................
V
‫اﻟﻤﻼﺣﻖ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ‬
1‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬........................................................172
2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬....................................181
3‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬...................................................................182
4‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺯل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬...................183
5‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺯل‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬............184
6‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬‫ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬.........................................185
7‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬.................................................186
8‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬...........................................................187
9‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬..........................................................188
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11. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬
bensaidamine.yolasite.com
bensaidamine.yolasite.com

12. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬.....................................................................................................................................................
‫أ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻤﺴﻰ‬‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ‬‫ﻭﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺨﻼل‬‫ﺤﻘﺒﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬‫ﻤﺜﻴﺭﺓ‬‫ﻟﻠﻘﻠﻕ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬،‫ﻭﺘﺭﺠـﻊ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬‫ﺤﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﻭﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ‬‫ﻭﻫﺩﺩﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤـﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭل‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﻭﻋﺩﻭﻯ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻟﺘﺸﻤل‬‫ﺩﻭﻻ‬،‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﻜﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻼﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻩ‬‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬‫ﻭﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺠﻬﺎ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬.
‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ‬‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺘﻜﺭﺭﺕ‬‫ﻭﺘﻼﺤﻘﺕ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤ‬‫ﻓﺸﻤﻠﺕ‬‫ﺩﻭل‬‫ﺸﺭﻕ‬‫ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‬‫ﻭﺭﻭﺴـﻴﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﺯﻴـل‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺠﻨﺘﻴﻥ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﻴﻙ‬‫ﻭﺒﻘﻴﺔ‬‫ﺩﻭل‬‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺃﺨﺭ‬،‫ﻯ‬‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻨﺎﻤﻴ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬‫ﻤﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺼ‬‫ﺨﺼﻭ‬‫ﻤﻊ‬‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺭﻜﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬‫ﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬،‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬‫ﺃﻴﻀـﺎ‬‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬
،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻀﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﻫﻲ‬‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬‫ﻤﻊ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬‫ﻋﺒﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺼ‬‫ﺨﺼﻭ‬‫ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ‬‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠـﻕ‬
‫ﺒﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬.
‫ﺸﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬2008،‫ﻤﺴﺒﻭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ‬‫ﺃﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﻤﺼـﺤﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬
،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐـﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺒﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻷﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬)‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬(‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻋل‬ ‫ﺯﺍﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬.
‫ﺍﻟﺤـﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺴـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ،‫ﻻﺤﺘﻭﺍﺌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺫﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻷﻥ‬‫ﻋـﻥ‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺴﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺨﻭل‬‫ﺤﺼل‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﻁﺅ‬
‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺴـﺎﺒﻘﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠـﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺓ‬.
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ‬‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻨﻪ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴـﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺇﺸﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺒﻠﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﺎﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬،‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﺀﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘـﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬
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13. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬.....................................................................................................................................................
‫ب‬
‫ﻴﺘﻔﺭﻉ‬‫ﻋﻥ‬‫ﺍﻹﺸﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺌﻠﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬:
‫ﻜﻴﻑ‬‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻹﻓﻼﺱ‬‫ﺘـﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺨﺭ‬‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﻥ‬‫؟‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ؟‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ؟‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬‫ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻫـل‬
‫ﻭﺒﺩﺍﺌل‬ ‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺯﺯ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻭﻗﺎﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺴﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل؟‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺌﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺩ‬:
‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﻓـﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻭﻟﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻔﺘﺎﺤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ‬ ،‫؛‬
‫ﹰ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺘﻁـﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﺎﺒل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻓﺭﺍﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﺎﺒـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴـﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸـﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ؛‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺒﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ؛‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻠﻙ‬‫ﻗﻨﺎﺘ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻜﻘﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬.
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺘﻲ‬‫ﻨﺘﺠـﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ،
‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﻭﻤﻨـﺫ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺒﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ،
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﻟﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﻡ‬ ،‫ﻭﺘﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺘﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻘﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻨﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ،‫ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺨﺭﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬.‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘـﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﻼﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬.
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14. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬.....................................................................................................................................................
‫ت‬
‫ﺃ‬‫ﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬:
‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓـﺔ‬ ‫ﺜـﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸـﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬‫ﻤـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ؛‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻠﻴﻁ‬‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺒـﺭﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫؛‬
‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬.
‫ﺭﺴﻡ‬‫ﺨﺎﺭﻁﺔ‬‫ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬‫ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺘـﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻐﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﺭﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬‫ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻫﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬‫ﺍﻟـﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬.
‫ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻺﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬‫ﺴﺌﻠﺔ‬‫ﺍﺨﺘ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﺎﺭ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻗﺘﻀ‬‫ﺘﻨـﺎﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﻓﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺙ‬‫ﺒﻌﺩﻫﺎ‬،‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﻴﻁﻭﻯ‬‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺘﻤﺔ‬.
‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻤﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺠﺭﻯ‬:‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨ‬‫ﺃﻤـ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻅـﺭﻱ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺜﺎ‬‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺠ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻥ‬‫ﺎ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬‫ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ‬
‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴـﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ‬.‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻔﺼل‬‫ﻓﻘـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﺙ‬‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻟﻠـﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﺯﺀ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟـﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﻋﻼﺝ‬‫ﺘﺘﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺭ‬.
bensaidamine.yolasite.com

15. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬.....................................................................................................................................................
‫ث‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬‫ﻜﺸﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل‬‫ﻋﻥ‬‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘـﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﺄﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬‫ﻓﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻫﺫ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﻩ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺼﻌﻴﺩ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬
،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ‬ ‫ﺴﺒل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬.
bensaidamine.yolasite.com
bensaidamine.yolasite.com
bensaidamine.yolasite.com

16. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬

17. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
2
‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺸﻜل‬‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻅـﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬‫ﻤﺜﻴـﺭﺓ‬‫ﻟﻠﻘﻠـﻕ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤـﺎﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠـﻑ‬ ‫ﻟـﺩﻯ‬
،‫ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﺭﻴﻥ‬‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬‫ﻜﺎﻨـﺕ‬‫ﺤـﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﻭﺨﻁﻴـﺭﺓ‬‫ﻭﻫـﺩﺩﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭل‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒـﺎﻷﺨﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻴـﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻸﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬.
‫ﻭﺩﻭﺭ‬ ،‫ﻭﻤﺴـﺒﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺴـﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻔﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻌل‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺝ‬.‫ﻭ‬‫ﺴ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﺎﻭل‬‫ﺒﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻤـﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫـﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁـﺭﻕ‬
،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬‫ﺘـﻡ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻘﺴـ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺤـﺙ‬ ‫ﺜـﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼـل‬ ‫ﻫـﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ‬:
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ؛‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬.

18. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
3
‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻤﺒﺤﺚ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻭﻝ‬:‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ‬‫ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬‫ﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻊ‬،‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬،‫ﻭﻓـﻲ‬‫ﻫـﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺕ‬.
‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺩ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻀﻴﻊ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭﻻ‬‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬،‫ﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬـﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬‫ﻟﺫﺍ‬ ،‫ﺴﻨﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬‫ﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ‬،‫ﻭﺨﺼﺎﺌﺼﻬﺎ‬.
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬:‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻨﺤﺩﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‬"crise"=)‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬(‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬"crisis"‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬‫ﺒـﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺤﺩﺭ‬‫ﻤـﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻨﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻜﺘﺏ‬‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬"krisis"‫ﻭﻓﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻭﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻗﺎﻤﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺏ‬Le Robert historique‫ﻜﻠﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬
"‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬"‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﻼﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬.1
‫ﻭﻴﻅﻬﺭ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬،‫ﻤﻭﺠﺯ‬‫ﻗﺒل‬‫ﺩﺨﻭل‬‫ﻋﻠﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻜﻠﻤﺔ‬"‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬"
‫ﻤﺕ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﹸﺨ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﺴ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‬‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﺜﻡ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ‬‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﻤﻨﻬـﺎ‬‫ﺍﻷﺨـﻼﻕ‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻡ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺒﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻥ‬‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬"‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬"‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬‫ﺍﻷﻜﺎﺩﻴﻤﻲ‬‫ﺇﻻ‬‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺃﻏﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ‬.‫ﻭﺒﻌـﺩ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﺘﺘﺒـﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺀ‬‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬‫ﻟﻨﺎ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬"‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬"‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬‫ﻟﻌل‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺃﺒﺭﺯﻫﺎ‬‫ﻤﺎ‬‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬:2
‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬‫ﻋﻨﻴﻑ‬‫ﻴﻅﻬﺭ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺠﻴﺩﺓ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ‬‫ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬‫ﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﻤﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬‫؛‬
‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬‫ﻓﺎﺼﻠﺔ‬‫ﻭﺨﻁﺭﺓ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬‫ﻭﻋﺎﺌﻕ‬‫ﻤﺅﻗﺕ‬‫؛‬
‫ﻨﺯﺍﻉ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼل‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‬‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬‫ﺒﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬‫ﻭﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬‫؛‬
‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬‫ﺃﻭ‬‫ﻗﻠﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺸﻲﺀ‬‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬‫ﻜﺎﻟﻘﻭل‬‫ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ‬‫ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻥ‬.
1
-‫ﺍﻟﺮﺯﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﻌﺒﺎﺱ‬‫ﺳﻌﻴﺪ‬-‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﲎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬‫؟‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺘﺎﺏ‬‫ﺎﳌ‬‫ﺇﺳـﻼﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺣﻠﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬-‫ﻣ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﲝـﺎﺙ‬ ‫ﺮﻛـﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﻼﻣﻲ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬-‫ﺟﺪﺓ‬)‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬(-‫ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ‬2009-‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬-5-6.
2
-‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺲ‬-‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬-9-10.

19. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
4
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺅﺸﺭ‬
‫ﻫﺸﺎﺸ‬‫ﺫﺍﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﺔ‬.‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻴﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻ‬ ‫ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ‬‫ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ‬.‫ﻭﺘﻌﺒﺭ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻔـﺎﺠﺊ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬‫ﺍﻹﺼﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ،/‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﺘﺩ‬.‫ﻤﺼـﻁﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﻌﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻴـﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺓ‬1
‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﻴﺎﻨﺎ‬‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬‫ﻓﺭﻕ‬‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤـﺎ‬.‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺘـﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻷﺯﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼل‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺒﺎﻨﺘﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ‬.2
‫ﻭ‬‫ﻨﺠﺩ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬)crise financière(‫ﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬‫ﻻﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻨـﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬
‫ﻜﺎﺯ‬)comte de Las cases) (1766-1842(‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬1823.3
‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ‬‫ﻤﺸﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻴﺩﺭﻴﻙ‬Fredric Mishkan‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻓﻴﻘﻭل‬"‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒـﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﺴـﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺌﺔ‬
‫ﻟـ‬ ‫ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺫﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺅﻻﺀ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬‫ﺍﻟﻔـﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀـل‬ ‫ﺩﻴﻬﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬".4
‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﻠـﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬.‫ﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﻠل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬‫ﺍﻷﻓـﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﻩ‬
1
-‫ﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬A.F.Burns‫ﻭ‬W.C.Mitchell‫ﻭﳘﺎ‬‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬‫ﺍﻥ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‬ ‫ﺎﳌﻜﺘﺐ‬)NBER(-‫ﻫ‬‫ﻲ‬‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ‬ ‫ﺣﻠﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬-‫ﳑﺎﺛﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬‫ﺔ‬-‫ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻌﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﰒ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻣﺔ‬.
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﻮ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ‬‫ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺲ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ‬.‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﻬﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ‬‫ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬Juglar‫ﺃﻭﺿﺢ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻧﺴﻲ‬‫ﻛﻠﻴﻤﻮﻥ‬‫ﺟﻮﻏﻼﺭ‬)1819-1905(‫ﰲ‬‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬
1860‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺗﺪﻭﻡ‬‫ﻛﻞ‬‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬‫ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬‫ﳌﺪﺓ‬‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﺮ‬.‫ﻭ‬‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬Kitchin‫ﻭ‬‫ﻫﻲ‬‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬‫ﺠﻭﺯﻴﻑ‬‫ﻜﻴﺘﺸﻴﻥ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻤـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺸﻬﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﻌﻴﻥ‬.‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻬﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻁﻭل‬‫ﺩﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ‬‫ﻨﻴﻜﻭﻻ‬‫ﻜﻭﻨﺩﺭﺍﺘﻴﻴﻑ‬‫ﻭﺘﺴﻤﻰ‬‫ﺒـ‬‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬Kondratief‫ﺑﲔ‬50‫ﻭ‬60
‫ﻋﺎﻣﺎ‬.‫ﺃﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ‬:
BEITONE Alain - et autres - Dictionnaire des sciences économiques - Armand Colin - Paris- 2007- 2e
édition-
Pp - 125-126.
2
-‫ﻗﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺪ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﺪﺍﻋﻴﺎ‬-‫ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﲝﻮﺙ‬ ‫ﳎﻠﺔ‬-‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬-‫ﺭﺑﻴﻊ‬
2009.‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻤﻌﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ‬ ‫ﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ‬.‫ﺹ‬8.
3
-‫ﺑﻠﻌﺒﺎﺱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺮﺯﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬‫ﺳﻌﻴﺪ‬-‫ﺳﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‬-‫ﺹ‬8.
4
-‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﱯ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﺍﳌ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺃﺳﻴﻮﻁ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬-
‫ﺹ‬.1.

20. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
5
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺴﻁﺎﺀ‬.1
‫ﻟﻤﺼـﻁﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺴـﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻤﻭﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬’’‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻌﻪ‬‘‘.2
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬:
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬:3
-‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬)‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬(:‫ﻫ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﻭﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻟﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬%25.‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬
‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﺍ‬.‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﺝ‬
‫ﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﻓﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺒﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴـﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘـﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ‬‫ﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬.
-‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬:‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌـﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴـﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺤـﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺒﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬"‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬"‫ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ،"‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺎﻋﺔ‬"‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺒﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬.‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺭﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬ ‫ﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬.‫ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺼـﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺒـﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻬﺒﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺒﺩﺃ‬ ،‫ﻟﺒﻴﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺄﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬
‫ﻓـ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﺘﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﻨﻬﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻋﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻪ‬.‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸـﺭ‬ ‫ﻴـﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬20%‫ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﺎ‬1929‫ﻭ‬1987.
1
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ‬)‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﻭﻯ‬(-‫ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭ‬-‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬-2003-‫ﺹ‬32.
2
‫ﻛﻮﺭﺗﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﺪ‬-‫ﺭﺯﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎﻝ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬،‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣـﻬﺎ‬،‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺃﺳﺒﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ‬–‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ‬-‫ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺑﻐﺪﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮﻡ‬–‫ﻳﻮﻣﻲ‬29/28‫ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻞ‬2009-‫ﺹ‬3
3
‫ﻗﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺪ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﺳﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‬-‫ﺹ‬.9‫ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ‬-
BOYER Robert et autres - ‘les crises financières’ -Edition La Documentation française – Paris - 2004 - p13.

21. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
6
-‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬:‫ﻏﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل‬ ‫ﺤﺠـﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﻋﻨ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺅﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠـﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﻤﺎ‬)‫ﺇﻋـﻼﻡ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬(‫ﺫﻋﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬)‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻏﻠﻕ‬ ،‫ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴﺩ‬.(....
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬:1
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬)Non-Performing Loans- NPL(‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤـﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬10%‫؛‬
‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬‫ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺡ‬‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬2%‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ؛‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬)bank-runs(‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻴﻴل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺘـﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻤـﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬)‫ﻫ‬‫ﺍﻹﻜﻭﺍﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬1999‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺠﻨﺘﻴﻥ‬2002‫ﺒﻨـﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬1997.(
‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬1998‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬158‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬54‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬‫ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬1975-1997‫ﻭﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻤﺴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬.2
‫ﻋﺭﻀـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬.
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﺼﻨﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻭﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻼ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬.‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴـﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﻴﺞ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺎل‬‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬‫ﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬.3
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬:‫ﺨ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬:
‫ﻭﺘﺒﺭﺯ‬‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬:4
‫ﺤﺩﻭﺜﻬﺎ‬‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬‫ﻋﻨﻴﻑ‬،‫ﻭﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬‫ﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬‫؛‬
،‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺩ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺒﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺨل‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬‫ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬‫؛‬
1
‫ﺃﲪﺪ‬ ‫ﻃﻠﻔﺎﺡ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬-‫ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻬﺪ‬-‫ﺹ‬6.‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬:api.org-www.arab‫ﯾﻮم‬10-12-2008
2
BOYER Robert, op - cit - p 13.
3
BEITONE Alain et autres- op cit - p 115.
4
‫ﻛﻮﺭﺗﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﺪ‬-‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬-‫ﻣﺆﲤﺮ‬‫ﺩﻭﱄ‬‫ﺣﻮﻝ‬-‫ﺍ‬‫ﻋﻼﺟ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬-‫ﺍﳉﻨﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬-‫ﲰﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺃﰊ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺘﻮﻥ‬)‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬(-‫ﻳﻮﻣﻲ‬13-14‫ﻣﺎﺭﺱ‬2009-‫ﺹ‬3.

22. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
7
‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺼل‬‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺸﻙ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﺌل‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔ‬‫ﻟﻤﺠﺎﺒﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻋﺔ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺴﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺨﻭﻑ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬‫؛‬
‫ﺇ‬‫ﻥ‬‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻴﺴﺘﻭﺠﺏ‬‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺎﺕ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﻭﺤﺴﻥ‬‫ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺇﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻲ‬‫ﻴﺘﺴﻡ‬‫ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎﻻﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬‫ﺘﺅﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻬﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺤـﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬‫ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ‬‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬.
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬‫ﻫـﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ،‫ﺤﺩﻭﺜﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬،‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﻡ‬‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻘﺎﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻭﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﻭﻜـﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬.
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫ﺇﺭﺠﺎﻉ‬‫ﺘﺘﻀـﺎﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺴﺒﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ،‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬:1
1.‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﺘـﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻨـﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓـﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺼـﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﻐﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺼﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬
‫ﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﻡ‬‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺕ‬75%‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺤﺩﺜ‬‫ﺕ‬‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺩﺕ‬ ،‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬10%‫ﻭﺸـﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴـﺙ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻹﻜﻭﺍﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺯﻭﻴﻼ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬‫ﺘﻨﻭﻋﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺼﻐﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‬ ‫ﺕ‬.
‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻫـﻡ‬ ‫ﺒل‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬‫ﻲ‬‫ﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬
1
-‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﱐ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺟﻲ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﲏ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬29‫ﻣﺎﻱ‬2004-‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬-‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻬﺪ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺎﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬-‫ﺹ‬4-8.)‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ‬(

23. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
8
‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬50-67‫ﺴـﺒﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬.
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬.
‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺩﺕ‬22‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻨـﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﺠﻨـﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻕ‬.‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺄﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‬.
‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬‫؛‬‫ﺤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﻤﻘـﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬.‫ﺁ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬‫ﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬.
2.‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﻟﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺸﻜل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬،‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻀـﻐﻁ‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻐﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻐﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬،‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻤﻥ‬‫ﻴﺅ‬‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤـﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺜـل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺙ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻉ‬،‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺴـﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻜﺎﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻜﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒـﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬.‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻟﺕ‬‫ﻤﺸـﻜﺎﻥ‬Mishkin
1994‫ﺴ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻻﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻕ‬
،‫ﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺯﻭﻴﻼ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬.‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬:
-‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺼﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬‫ﻤﺸـﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﻬـﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﻜـﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺼﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻁﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻀﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬

24. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
9
‫ﺍﻟﺼـﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻐﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺎ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬.
-‫ﻭﻗﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬:‫ﻓﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻌـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﻓـﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺭﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻐﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻅل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻴﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺕ‬‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬.
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﺭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺼﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺎ‬.‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻠ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬‫ﻴﺴـﺘﻁﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻭﻥ‬‫ﻭﻭﻗﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬.‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺩﺨﻭل‬ ‫ﻌﻨﻲ‬‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﻟﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﻴـﺄﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺒﻭل‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤـﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺒـل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺩﻭﻥ‬ ،
‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﻟﻬ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻭﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬.
-‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺨل‬:‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻅﺎﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺼـﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻴﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬.
-‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻀﻌﻑ‬:‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤـﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻘﺘـﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻟﺘﺯﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺭﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺨـﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜـﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،
‫ﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻴﺄﺘﻴ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺘﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻅﻬﺭ‬‫ﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬‫ﺤـﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺠـﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴـﺔ‬