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Investment Proposal
2U (TWOU)
September 22, 2015
Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary
II. Main Business
III. Long-Term Strategy
IV. Catalysts/Opportunities for Further Value Creation
V. In the News
VI. Online Education Industry Background
I. Academic Support
II. Online Education Market
VII.Industry Landscape
VIII. Risk Factors
IX. Stock Performance Overview
X. Valuation
XI. Prevailing Opinions
XII.Recommendations
I. Closing Statement
XIII.Appendix
1
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
2U’s impressive management team, business model, partnerships and market potential
make the online degree developer a great investment opportunity for the GIMG portfolio.
• 2U is the leading provider of
online degree platforms for
leading non-profit colleges
and universities. It develops
online degrees by providing
an online platform and
working with the university to
develop the content of the
program.
• The strategies the company
is engaging in promise to
enhance business
productivity, improve
management, increase
market competitive
advantage, and boost future
returns. We believe this
company would be a great
investment opportunity for
GIMG given its prestige,
constant revenue generation
and continuous increase in
brand value.
3
2U IPO, March 2014
Main Business
Main Business
The company’s revenues come from the students their clients (Universities) are able to
get. Long-term contracts are signed with the clients (averaging 10-15 years), which
include the percentage of revenues per student to 2Us
• 2U develops an online platform for universities, so that they can offer their full degrees online. This
platform contains all the material teachers and students need for the most optimal online educational
experience and, at the end of the program, students can get a full degree. Students enrolled in these
programs are also admitted to the Universities facilities, so if a student requires resources from the
university, they can most certainly have them. University of North Carolina currently has over 600
students enrolled on its online Business Degree, and was ranked the #1 Online MBA for 2015 byUS
News & World Report and The Princeton Review. The main programs their clients offer are post-
graduate programs, but they are recently developing full undergraduate degree programs.
• The company’s revenues come from the students who are enrolled in their clients’ (universities)
programs, and their ability to retain a high enrollment of these students. To get more students, they
rely on their capacity to attract new clients and, therefore, increase the student maximum capacity.
Clients are offered 2U’s programs, and then decide whether or not to partner with the company.
• 2U incurs all the costs associated with the development of the content and the platform of their
particular client. 2U’s development teams work along teachers and professionals to ensure the best
quality experience can be obtained from these classes. Their main philosophy, “No Back Row,”
ensures that every student can get the most out of the content by providing classes with 15 students
per class, and both synchronous and asynchronous content. This means students can go at their own
pace, and get all their questions answered by the teacher as quickly as possible.
https://onlinemba.unc.edu / http://www.usnews.com/education/online-education/university-of-north-carolina-at-chapel-hill-OBUS0736/mba
5
Long Term Strategy
2U partners with leading non-profit colleges and universities to
develop online full degrees of the best possible quality.
We have identified the main strategy of the business as being brand value
development. 2U’s goal is to become the best provider of online education
services through the prestigious clients they work with. This goal is being
pursuit by working along the universities through the whole content
development process to ensure the highest quality content is achieved. This
ensures students get the same quality experience online as if they would by
attending a normal class. Their main focus is not to reduce costs, but rather
create the highest online quality education program along with their clients, and
become the best developers in the market.
2U clearly knows that giving out classes online is different from face-to-face,
that is why they invest so much in program development, and this is where the
value can be clearly seen. 83% of their client’s students stay in their programs
because of this strategy, also known as “No Back Row.”
6
Long term Strategy
• Because of a great retention rate and
program quality, 2U’s student number
has grown at an average of 7.54% per
quarter since October 2012.
• We believe this student number will
continue to growth constantly due to
many factors. Every time 2U signs a
new contract, the maximum number of
students their clients can have
increases.
• Today, 2U’s biggest program (not
client) has an average of 1,000
students. They currently have 31
programs either developed or being
developed.
• Taking into account the potential
development of these programs we
believe the companies revenues will
more than double in the next 3-4
years, while costs will be adjusted and
profits will be realized.
7
Student Growth Over Time
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Students
Time
CAGR = 34%
Catalysts/Opportunities for Further Value Creation
Student/Revenue Growth
• 2U’s revenues are generated by the number of
students they can have
• continues to grow at 7.56% per quarter for the
next 5 years, which we believe they will, this
means revenues double about every 10
quarters, or 2 and a half years.
• At this pace, we believe the stock price of the
stock has a huge upside potential.
Constant Credibility Growth
• The company’s brand name is constantly
acquiring value, and we think this will continue
to do so as long as the company seeks
partnerships with the most prestigious colleges,
and develops new relationships with
companies.
• Big names such as Google and Goldman Sachs
publicly announced that they are going to
provide scholarships for their employees.
• We believe corporations will soon further
recognize the advantages of providing their
employees with post-graduate degrees, without
their employees having to leave the office.
• We believe the idea of being able to complete a
full MBA from home, at the office, traveling, or
wherever, is revolutionary.
9
Catalysts/Opportunities for further Value Creation
There are a number of potential near-term catalysts that could boost the
company’s future cash flows.
Catalysts/Opportunities for Further Value Creation
• Client Acquisition
2U has now19 clients. Big client names include University of South California, University of
North Carolina Chapel Hill, Northwestern University, Yale School of Medicine, Berkeley School
of Medicine, etc. New York University partnered with 2U on the 2Q 2015. All of these new
partnerships boost 2U’s credibility, and give potential clients more security about 2U’s success.
• Student Retention
2U’s “No Back Row” method has proven incredibly effective. 2U’s programs retain 83% of the
students that currently study in their programs, or that have already graduated. This means
2U’s main business product is incredibly effective. We believe that if 2U maintains this retention
rate, it will further improve credibility for current and future clients.
• Unique Business Model
The business model is very particular. They have an incredibly scalable business, which relies
on the number of students their clients can get. If retention rates are maintained and the quality
of the content offered remains, more prospective students will be interested in 2U’s programs,
which are said to be as effective as a real life classroom.
• Evident Demand for Online Degrees
Online education is a market that is growing on an average of 10% every year, compared to the
2.0% of normal college enrollments. We see a big opportunity in the online education industry if
the content is developed properly. There is a growing demand for online education courses
from both corporations and individuals. Right now, there are about 1,2 million students enrolled
in either undergrad or post-grad online degrees. We believe 2U will be able to acquire about
2% of this market in the next 4-5 years.
10
Catalysts/Opportunities for further Value Creation
Credibility Leverage
• James Sheldon, the ex secretary deputy of the United States, joined 2U as the Chief
Impact Officer.
• We believe this demonstrates the value of their services and the quality of the
programs they develop.
• There is a lot of stigma surrounding online education, and his role is “making an impact
in peoples’ lives.” We believe online education can have a very positive impact on the
lives of people if done correctly, and James Sheldon carries the experience and the
knowledge to make this happen.
• Credibility is also increased by having such an important figure in the work
environment, giving 2U an aggregate brand value.
11
Catalysts/Opportunities for Further Value Creation
One of the factors that could also drive 2U’s business is student dropouts joining online
programs. The following graph shows evidence that students drop out of full degrees
because the cannot physically be there for reasons other than affordability.
12
In the News
2U is becoming more and more renowned.
http://2u.com/about/press/?page=1 (All images from 2U’s website)
13
Industry Background
• Chief academic officers are
reporting their personal
perceptions about the relative
quality of online and face-to-face
instruction
• The proportion of academic
leaders who report that online
learning is critical to their
institution’s long term strategy
has grown from 48.8% in 2002
to 70.8% this year.
• The proportion of chief academic
leaders that say online learning
is critical to their long-term
strategy is at an all-time high.
• The proportion of institutions
reporting online education is not
critical to their long-term strategy
has dropped to a new low of
8.6%.
15
Online Education Industry Background
Academic Leaders all over the country now have the highest
Percentage of Institutions that see Online
Education as a Part of their Long-term Business Strategy
http://www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradelevel.pdf
Academic Support
This graph shows how academic officers have changed their perspective of the impact of online
education. Many agree nowadays that online education can equate face to face education.
16
The amount of academic officers that consider that online education can be the same quality as face to face
has dramatically increased. Academic leaders, therefore, are now more prone to include online education in
their long term business strategy.
17
Online Education Market
• One in four secondary-education
students have taken an online class.
• Approximately 12% of secondary-
education students are enrolled
exclusively in online courses.
• Exactly 22.0% of graduate students
are enrolled exclusively in online
courses.
• Economic pressure to work while
going to school and increasing
familiarity with online courses is
pushes growth in enrollment.
• Private, nonprofit four-year
institutions have seen the largest
boost in online enrollment.
• Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2012)
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
STUDENTS ENROLLED IN
ONLINE EDUCATION
CAGR = 46%
Industry Landscape
Competitor’s Business Models
• Devry (DV) is a provider of education services
with programs in business, healthcare and
technology, and accounting and finance. They
plan to continue focusing in providing
secondary education services with their own
curriculum. Devry had a 14.1% decrease in
undergraduate student enrollment from 2013-
2014.
• Apollo (APOL) is a private education services
provider which provides online and on-campus
educational programs. Significant university
platforms include the University of Phoenix.
Future development will focus on their online
master-degree programs.
• American Public (APEI) is a provider of online
and on-campus post-secondary education. They
also have four physical nursing campuses in
Ohio. They plan to continue their business model
of providing their own curriculum online to
students.
• Strayer (STRA) provides post-secondary
education through online education and 80
physical locations. They have no new plans for
expansion
• Capella (CPLA) is an online post-secondary
education services company. They have an
international footprint operating in Africa, Asia,
and Europe.
Source: Company Filings
Profitability
Faculty and Education Costs as a Percent of
Revenue
0%
52%
43%
35%
53%
44%
No TRUE competitors exist currently because of their niche business model
Risk Factors
Risk Factors
Even thought we think this company is a great investment opportunity, we have
identified the risks that could potentially affect the company.
• Failure to acquire more clients and attract more students could drastically hurt the
development and credibility of the company.
• Online education has been highly stigmatized during the last years. Failure to
demonstrate product effectiveness could discourage clients to maintain their
contracts with 2U, drastically hurting credibility and development.
• 2U’s online platform is what gives their programs the credibility they generate.
Failure to maintain the security of the platform (against viruses, hacks, lags) and
efficiency of the platform could drastically affect credibility from clients and
students alike.
• Failure to fundraise to maintain development of programs could mean the
company would not be able to develop new programs, and therefore reduce
expansion.
• 2U makes contracts with universities that may limit 2U’s ability to partner with
other universities. Failure to rearrange terms with some of the clients could retain
further expansion.
20
Stock Performance Overview
2U Stock Performance Overview
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Rate hike scare
Fed inaction on rates
UNC
Ranked #1
Online
MBA
Whitman’s Online MBA
Program Ranked #8 Globally2Q Results: 32%
Revenue Increase
Rate Hike
Speculation
Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow
.
24
DCF model
(in million) Actual CAGR Forecast period
2012 2013 2014 (06 - 09) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales 55.9 83.1 110.2 40.5% 148.8 193.5 241.8 290.2 333.7
% growth 48.8% 32.6% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0%
COGS 20.4 37.9 43.9 46.8% 59.2 73.1 86.6 98.1 106.1
% sales 36.4% 45.5% 39.8% 39.8% 37.8% 35.8% 33.8% 31.8%
EBITDA -20.2 -23.6 -22.2 4.9% -18.0 -8.0 2.1 14.1 29.6
% margin -36.1% -28.4% -20.1% -12.1% -4.1% 0.9% 4.9% 8.9%
Depreciation & Amortization: 2.9 4.3 4.3 -7.1 -9.3 -11.6 -13.9 -16.0
% sales 5.1% 5.2% 3.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
EBIT -23.04 -27.95 -26.52 7.3% -25.2 -17.3 -9.5 0.2 13.6
EBIT Margin -41.2% -33.6% -24.1% -16.1% -8.1% -0.1% 3.9% 7.9%
Taxes (30%) -16.1 -19.6 -18.6 -17.6 -12.1 -6.6 0.2 9.5
Capex 2.3 2.4 3.8 6.0 7.9 10.0 12.1 14.2
% sales 2.8% 3.4% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2%
Increase/Decrease in NWC 6.6 4.7 13.7 17.1 20.8 22.0 18.5
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -15.5 -11.0 -13.3 -17.0 -12.2 -7.4 -3.9 -2.1
WACC 12.7%
Present value of free cash flow -15.1 -9.6 -5.2 -2.4 -1.2
DCF
25
Terminal Value
Terminal Year Free Cash Flow -2.1
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0%
Terminal Year Revenue 333.7
Terminal Value 3,003.6
Implied Exit Multiple 9.0x
Discount Period 5.0
Discount Factor 0.1
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,654
% of Enterprise Value 102%
(in million) Actual Forecast period
Net Working Capital 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Account receivables 0.248 1.835 0.350 0.350 0.360 0.370 0.380 0.390
Inventory 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Prepaid expenses and other 1.300 2.300 2.700 44.1% 3.891 5.608 8.082 11.647 16.785
Total Current Assets 1.548 4.135 3.050 4.241 5.968 8.452 12.027 17.175
% sales 2.8% 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% 4.1% 5.1%
Account payable 3.00 5.10 2.30 3.47 3.57 3.67 3.77 3.87
Accrued Liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Current Liabilities 8.00 15.10 21.50 63.9% 35.25 53.93 77.12 102.56 126.15
Total Current Liabilities 11.00 20.20 23.80 38.72 57.50 80.79 106.33 130.02
% sales 19.7% 24.3% 21.6% 26.0% 29.7% 33.4% 36.6% 39.0%
Net Working Capital -9.5 -16.1 -20.8 -34.5 -51.5 -72.3 -94.3 -112.8
% sales -17% -19% -19% -23% -27% -30% -32% -34%
26
Company
Levered Beta
(1)
Market Value of
Debt (2)
Market Value of
Equity (3)
Debt/
Equity
Equity/ Total
Assets
Marginal
Tax Rate
Unlevered
Beta (4)
Devry 1.47 0 1800 0.0% 100.0% 6% 1.47
Apollo 1.76 55.47 1220 4.5% 95.7% 46% 1.72
American Public 1.23 0 391 0.0% 100.0% 39% 1.23
Strayer 1.55 115.86 631 18.4% 84.5% 40% 1.40
Capella 1.58 0 623 0.0% 100.0% 40% 1.58
Median 1.55 0.0% 100.0% 1.47
Mean 1.52 4.6% 96.0% 1.48
(1) From Bloomberg
(2) Book Value of Debt
(3) From Bloomberg
(4) Unlevered Beta = Predicted Levered Beta / (1 + Debt/Equity) x (1-t))
Relevered Beta Mean Unlevered
Beta
Debt/ Equity Target
Marginal
Tax Rate
Relevered
Beta
Target Company 1.48 0.0% 30% 1.48
Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta
DCF
DCF
27
(1) Wacc Calculation Enterprise value
Capital Structure Present value of Free Cash Flow -33.5
Debt to Total Capitalization 0.0%
Equityto Total Capitalization 100.0% Terminal Value 3,100
Debt to EquityRatio 0.0% Discount Factor 12.7%
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,707.6
Cost of Equity % of Enterprise Value 102%
Risk-free rate (2) 2.2%
Market risk Premium (3) 7.1% Enterprise value 1,674
Levered Beta (4) 1.48 Less: Total debt 0
Cost of Equity 12.7% Plus: Cash and Cash Equi. 87
Noncontrolling Interests 0
Cost of Debt Net Operating Losses -116
Cost of Debt 0.0%
Taxes 30.0% Implied Equity Value 1,877
After Tax Cost of Debt 0.0% Diluted outstanding shares 41.7
Implied share price $44.97
WACC 12.7% Current share price $35.21
Implied share difference 28%
DCFmodel
OutputInput
DCF
28
DCF model
Sensitivity Analysis
Perpetuity growth %
1,621 1,621 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
WACC
9.4% 1,886 1,886 1,886 1,886 1,886
10.4% 1,801 1,801 1,801 1,801 1,801
11.4% 1,720 1,720 1,720 1,720 1,720
12.4% 1,644 1,644 1,644 1,644 1,644
13.4% 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,572
Annual sales growth %
#REF! 1,621 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 46.0% 48.0%
EBITDA%
12.3% 1,823 1,849 1,874 1,899 1,924
13.3% 1,829 1,855 1,880 1,905 1,930
14.3% 1,835 1,861 1,886 1,911 1,937
15.3% 1,841 1,867 1,892 1,917 1,943
16.3% 1,847 1,873 1,898 1,924 1,949
Implied Exit Multiple
#REF! $43.70 8 8.5 9 9.5 10
WACC
10.4% 43.03 45.47 47.91 50.35 52.78
11.4% 41.33 43.66 45.99 48.32 50.65
12.4% 39.71 41.94 44.17 46.40 48.63
13.4% 38.18 40.31 42.44 44.58 46.71
14.4% 36.73 38.77 40.81 42.85 44.89
Name Ticker
Last
Period
EndDate
EV/Sales
TTM
EV/Sales
FY1
EV/Sales
FY2
EV/EBITD
A
TTM
EV/EBITD
A
FY1
EV/EBITD
A
FY2
EV/EBIT
TTM
EV/EBIT
FY1
EV/EBIT
FY2
Total
Debt/
EV
Total
Debt/
Equity
Net
Debt/
Equity
Total
Debt/
EBITDA
FY1
Net
Debt/
EBITDA
FY1
EBITDA/
Int.Exp.
FY1
EBITDA-
Capex/
Int.Exp.
FY1
EBIT/
Int.Exp.
FY1
DEVRYEDUCATIONGROUPINC. DV-N 6/30/2015 0.74 0.77 0.77 5.65 4.83 4.57 8.87 7.08 6.61 0 0 -0.23 0 -1.26 54.95 38.25 37.48
APOLLOEDUCATIONGROUP,INC. APOL-O 5/31/2015 0.12 0.13 0.15 1.19 0.97 1.2 2.42 1.63 2.19 0.17 0.05 -0.81 0.16 -2.83 47.82 34.44 28.63
AMERICANPUBLICEDUCATION,INC. APEI-O 6/30/2015 0.84 0.87 0.88 3.73 4.06 4.09 4.82 5.53 5.72 0 0 -0.45 0 -1.47- - -
CapellaEducationCompany CPLA-O 6/30/2015 1.15 1.14 1.1 5.47 5.28 4.99 7.34 7.16 6.7 0 0 -0.65 0 -1.4- - -
STRAYEREDUCATION,INC. STRA-O 6/30/2015 1.26 1.27 1.24 5.99 6.4 6.06 7.55 8.16 7.67 0.21 0.96 -0.66 1.34 -0.93 16.67 14.42 13.09
2U,INC. TWOU-US6/30/2015 10.67 9.29 7.15NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 0 0 -1.09 0 9.87 -16.34 -23.88 -33.88
Mean 2.463333 2.245 1.881667 4.406 4.308 4.182 6.2 5.912 5.778 0.063333 0.168333 -0.64833 0.25 0.33 25.775 15.8075 11.33
Median 0.995 1.005 0.99 5.47 4.83 4.57 7.34 7.08 6.61 0 0 -0.655 0 -1.33 32.245 24.43 20.86
High 10.67 9.29 7.15 5.99 6.4 6.06 8.87 8.16 7.67 0.21 0.96 -0.23 1.34 9.87 54.95 38.25 37.48
Low 0.12 0.13 0.15 1.19 0.97 1.2 2.42 1.63 2.19 0 0 -1.09 0 -2.83 -16.34 -23.88 -33.88
29
Comparable Companies
Prevailing Opinions
Prevailing Opinions
• Management is on track, even very likely to be, ahead of schedule to
achieving their goal of a positive adjusted EBITDA by 2017 (Three years
within IPO date)
• An increase in growth rate from four new programs a year to six new
programs a year, due to the massive market opportunity
• The company is already committed with six programs in 2016 out of the
eleven they are negotiating with.
• It is beginning to establish stronger bonds with previous partners as they
have announced four new programs – three with NYU and its third with
USC (the company’s longest standing partner)
• There is a highly-visible revenue model. A significant portion of 2U’s
revenue is based on returning students; therefore, by February
management has visibility into more than 75% of full-year revenue.
Barrington Research, BMO Capital Markets and Credit Suisse
31
Most if not every equity report has indicated that 2U will outperform the market
Recommendations
Closing Statement
After evaluating 2U’s
fundamentals, we conclude
that it’s growth potential is
very evident. Accounting for all
the possible catalysts that
could improve the company’s
brand name, market
advantage and long-term
growth, this company’s stock
price has a very big upside in
the long term. Based on a
Discounted Cash Flow
analysis, the average figure
after a sensitivity analysis is a
price of 43$, compared to 35$
today (22% upside), even
though we think it could be
more (50$). We recommend a
Solid Buy due to the amount
of catalysts that will most
probably boost stock
performance. 33
Disclaimer: These materials has been prepared by the Goizueta Investment Management Group. This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not
purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.
Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about
the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks.
There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long
term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or
results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the Goizueta
Investment Management Group, other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that
you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper
based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. The Goizueta Investment Management Group does
not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. The Goizueta
Investment Management Group shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to
these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing. © 2014 Goizueta Investment Management Group. All Rights Reserved.
Appendix
% of Revenues per Program (Biggest clients taken into account)
Data obtained from 2U’s 10K
36
Predicted Student Growth Data
37
Cost Analysis
Based on Data made on Excel and obtained from 2U’s 10K
38
Cost Analysis
39

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TWOU_Pitch

  • 2. Table of Contents I. Executive Summary II. Main Business III. Long-Term Strategy IV. Catalysts/Opportunities for Further Value Creation V. In the News VI. Online Education Industry Background I. Academic Support II. Online Education Market VII.Industry Landscape VIII. Risk Factors IX. Stock Performance Overview X. Valuation XI. Prevailing Opinions XII.Recommendations I. Closing Statement XIII.Appendix 1
  • 4. Executive Summary 2U’s impressive management team, business model, partnerships and market potential make the online degree developer a great investment opportunity for the GIMG portfolio. • 2U is the leading provider of online degree platforms for leading non-profit colleges and universities. It develops online degrees by providing an online platform and working with the university to develop the content of the program. • The strategies the company is engaging in promise to enhance business productivity, improve management, increase market competitive advantage, and boost future returns. We believe this company would be a great investment opportunity for GIMG given its prestige, constant revenue generation and continuous increase in brand value. 3 2U IPO, March 2014
  • 6. Main Business The company’s revenues come from the students their clients (Universities) are able to get. Long-term contracts are signed with the clients (averaging 10-15 years), which include the percentage of revenues per student to 2Us • 2U develops an online platform for universities, so that they can offer their full degrees online. This platform contains all the material teachers and students need for the most optimal online educational experience and, at the end of the program, students can get a full degree. Students enrolled in these programs are also admitted to the Universities facilities, so if a student requires resources from the university, they can most certainly have them. University of North Carolina currently has over 600 students enrolled on its online Business Degree, and was ranked the #1 Online MBA for 2015 byUS News & World Report and The Princeton Review. The main programs their clients offer are post- graduate programs, but they are recently developing full undergraduate degree programs. • The company’s revenues come from the students who are enrolled in their clients’ (universities) programs, and their ability to retain a high enrollment of these students. To get more students, they rely on their capacity to attract new clients and, therefore, increase the student maximum capacity. Clients are offered 2U’s programs, and then decide whether or not to partner with the company. • 2U incurs all the costs associated with the development of the content and the platform of their particular client. 2U’s development teams work along teachers and professionals to ensure the best quality experience can be obtained from these classes. Their main philosophy, “No Back Row,” ensures that every student can get the most out of the content by providing classes with 15 students per class, and both synchronous and asynchronous content. This means students can go at their own pace, and get all their questions answered by the teacher as quickly as possible. https://onlinemba.unc.edu / http://www.usnews.com/education/online-education/university-of-north-carolina-at-chapel-hill-OBUS0736/mba 5
  • 7. Long Term Strategy 2U partners with leading non-profit colleges and universities to develop online full degrees of the best possible quality. We have identified the main strategy of the business as being brand value development. 2U’s goal is to become the best provider of online education services through the prestigious clients they work with. This goal is being pursuit by working along the universities through the whole content development process to ensure the highest quality content is achieved. This ensures students get the same quality experience online as if they would by attending a normal class. Their main focus is not to reduce costs, but rather create the highest online quality education program along with their clients, and become the best developers in the market. 2U clearly knows that giving out classes online is different from face-to-face, that is why they invest so much in program development, and this is where the value can be clearly seen. 83% of their client’s students stay in their programs because of this strategy, also known as “No Back Row.” 6
  • 8. Long term Strategy • Because of a great retention rate and program quality, 2U’s student number has grown at an average of 7.54% per quarter since October 2012. • We believe this student number will continue to growth constantly due to many factors. Every time 2U signs a new contract, the maximum number of students their clients can have increases. • Today, 2U’s biggest program (not client) has an average of 1,000 students. They currently have 31 programs either developed or being developed. • Taking into account the potential development of these programs we believe the companies revenues will more than double in the next 3-4 years, while costs will be adjusted and profits will be realized. 7 Student Growth Over Time 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Students Time CAGR = 34%
  • 10. Student/Revenue Growth • 2U’s revenues are generated by the number of students they can have • continues to grow at 7.56% per quarter for the next 5 years, which we believe they will, this means revenues double about every 10 quarters, or 2 and a half years. • At this pace, we believe the stock price of the stock has a huge upside potential. Constant Credibility Growth • The company’s brand name is constantly acquiring value, and we think this will continue to do so as long as the company seeks partnerships with the most prestigious colleges, and develops new relationships with companies. • Big names such as Google and Goldman Sachs publicly announced that they are going to provide scholarships for their employees. • We believe corporations will soon further recognize the advantages of providing their employees with post-graduate degrees, without their employees having to leave the office. • We believe the idea of being able to complete a full MBA from home, at the office, traveling, or wherever, is revolutionary. 9 Catalysts/Opportunities for further Value Creation There are a number of potential near-term catalysts that could boost the company’s future cash flows.
  • 11. Catalysts/Opportunities for Further Value Creation • Client Acquisition 2U has now19 clients. Big client names include University of South California, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Northwestern University, Yale School of Medicine, Berkeley School of Medicine, etc. New York University partnered with 2U on the 2Q 2015. All of these new partnerships boost 2U’s credibility, and give potential clients more security about 2U’s success. • Student Retention 2U’s “No Back Row” method has proven incredibly effective. 2U’s programs retain 83% of the students that currently study in their programs, or that have already graduated. This means 2U’s main business product is incredibly effective. We believe that if 2U maintains this retention rate, it will further improve credibility for current and future clients. • Unique Business Model The business model is very particular. They have an incredibly scalable business, which relies on the number of students their clients can get. If retention rates are maintained and the quality of the content offered remains, more prospective students will be interested in 2U’s programs, which are said to be as effective as a real life classroom. • Evident Demand for Online Degrees Online education is a market that is growing on an average of 10% every year, compared to the 2.0% of normal college enrollments. We see a big opportunity in the online education industry if the content is developed properly. There is a growing demand for online education courses from both corporations and individuals. Right now, there are about 1,2 million students enrolled in either undergrad or post-grad online degrees. We believe 2U will be able to acquire about 2% of this market in the next 4-5 years. 10
  • 12. Catalysts/Opportunities for further Value Creation Credibility Leverage • James Sheldon, the ex secretary deputy of the United States, joined 2U as the Chief Impact Officer. • We believe this demonstrates the value of their services and the quality of the programs they develop. • There is a lot of stigma surrounding online education, and his role is “making an impact in peoples’ lives.” We believe online education can have a very positive impact on the lives of people if done correctly, and James Sheldon carries the experience and the knowledge to make this happen. • Credibility is also increased by having such an important figure in the work environment, giving 2U an aggregate brand value. 11
  • 13. Catalysts/Opportunities for Further Value Creation One of the factors that could also drive 2U’s business is student dropouts joining online programs. The following graph shows evidence that students drop out of full degrees because the cannot physically be there for reasons other than affordability. 12
  • 14. In the News 2U is becoming more and more renowned. http://2u.com/about/press/?page=1 (All images from 2U’s website) 13
  • 16. • Chief academic officers are reporting their personal perceptions about the relative quality of online and face-to-face instruction • The proportion of academic leaders who report that online learning is critical to their institution’s long term strategy has grown from 48.8% in 2002 to 70.8% this year. • The proportion of chief academic leaders that say online learning is critical to their long-term strategy is at an all-time high. • The proportion of institutions reporting online education is not critical to their long-term strategy has dropped to a new low of 8.6%. 15 Online Education Industry Background Academic Leaders all over the country now have the highest Percentage of Institutions that see Online Education as a Part of their Long-term Business Strategy http://www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradelevel.pdf
  • 17. Academic Support This graph shows how academic officers have changed their perspective of the impact of online education. Many agree nowadays that online education can equate face to face education. 16 The amount of academic officers that consider that online education can be the same quality as face to face has dramatically increased. Academic leaders, therefore, are now more prone to include online education in their long term business strategy.
  • 18. 17 Online Education Market • One in four secondary-education students have taken an online class. • Approximately 12% of secondary- education students are enrolled exclusively in online courses. • Exactly 22.0% of graduate students are enrolled exclusively in online courses. • Economic pressure to work while going to school and increasing familiarity with online courses is pushes growth in enrollment. • Private, nonprofit four-year institutions have seen the largest boost in online enrollment. • Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2012) 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 STUDENTS ENROLLED IN ONLINE EDUCATION CAGR = 46%
  • 19. Industry Landscape Competitor’s Business Models • Devry (DV) is a provider of education services with programs in business, healthcare and technology, and accounting and finance. They plan to continue focusing in providing secondary education services with their own curriculum. Devry had a 14.1% decrease in undergraduate student enrollment from 2013- 2014. • Apollo (APOL) is a private education services provider which provides online and on-campus educational programs. Significant university platforms include the University of Phoenix. Future development will focus on their online master-degree programs. • American Public (APEI) is a provider of online and on-campus post-secondary education. They also have four physical nursing campuses in Ohio. They plan to continue their business model of providing their own curriculum online to students. • Strayer (STRA) provides post-secondary education through online education and 80 physical locations. They have no new plans for expansion • Capella (CPLA) is an online post-secondary education services company. They have an international footprint operating in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Source: Company Filings Profitability Faculty and Education Costs as a Percent of Revenue 0% 52% 43% 35% 53% 44% No TRUE competitors exist currently because of their niche business model
  • 21. Risk Factors Even thought we think this company is a great investment opportunity, we have identified the risks that could potentially affect the company. • Failure to acquire more clients and attract more students could drastically hurt the development and credibility of the company. • Online education has been highly stigmatized during the last years. Failure to demonstrate product effectiveness could discourage clients to maintain their contracts with 2U, drastically hurting credibility and development. • 2U’s online platform is what gives their programs the credibility they generate. Failure to maintain the security of the platform (against viruses, hacks, lags) and efficiency of the platform could drastically affect credibility from clients and students alike. • Failure to fundraise to maintain development of programs could mean the company would not be able to develop new programs, and therefore reduce expansion. • 2U makes contracts with universities that may limit 2U’s ability to partner with other universities. Failure to rearrange terms with some of the clients could retain further expansion. 20
  • 23. 2U Stock Performance Overview $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Rate hike scare Fed inaction on rates UNC Ranked #1 Online MBA Whitman’s Online MBA Program Ranked #8 Globally2Q Results: 32% Revenue Increase Rate Hike Speculation
  • 25. Discounted Cash Flow . 24 DCF model (in million) Actual CAGR Forecast period 2012 2013 2014 (06 - 09) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales 55.9 83.1 110.2 40.5% 148.8 193.5 241.8 290.2 333.7 % growth 48.8% 32.6% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% COGS 20.4 37.9 43.9 46.8% 59.2 73.1 86.6 98.1 106.1 % sales 36.4% 45.5% 39.8% 39.8% 37.8% 35.8% 33.8% 31.8% EBITDA -20.2 -23.6 -22.2 4.9% -18.0 -8.0 2.1 14.1 29.6 % margin -36.1% -28.4% -20.1% -12.1% -4.1% 0.9% 4.9% 8.9% Depreciation & Amortization: 2.9 4.3 4.3 -7.1 -9.3 -11.6 -13.9 -16.0 % sales 5.1% 5.2% 3.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% EBIT -23.04 -27.95 -26.52 7.3% -25.2 -17.3 -9.5 0.2 13.6 EBIT Margin -41.2% -33.6% -24.1% -16.1% -8.1% -0.1% 3.9% 7.9% Taxes (30%) -16.1 -19.6 -18.6 -17.6 -12.1 -6.6 0.2 9.5 Capex 2.3 2.4 3.8 6.0 7.9 10.0 12.1 14.2 % sales 2.8% 3.4% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% Increase/Decrease in NWC 6.6 4.7 13.7 17.1 20.8 22.0 18.5 Unlevered Free Cash Flow -15.5 -11.0 -13.3 -17.0 -12.2 -7.4 -3.9 -2.1 WACC 12.7% Present value of free cash flow -15.1 -9.6 -5.2 -2.4 -1.2
  • 26. DCF 25 Terminal Value Terminal Year Free Cash Flow -2.1 Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% Terminal Year Revenue 333.7 Terminal Value 3,003.6 Implied Exit Multiple 9.0x Discount Period 5.0 Discount Factor 0.1 Present Value of Terminal Value 1,654 % of Enterprise Value 102% (in million) Actual Forecast period Net Working Capital 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Account receivables 0.248 1.835 0.350 0.350 0.360 0.370 0.380 0.390 Inventory 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Prepaid expenses and other 1.300 2.300 2.700 44.1% 3.891 5.608 8.082 11.647 16.785 Total Current Assets 1.548 4.135 3.050 4.241 5.968 8.452 12.027 17.175 % sales 2.8% 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% 4.1% 5.1% Account payable 3.00 5.10 2.30 3.47 3.57 3.67 3.77 3.87 Accrued Liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Current Liabilities 8.00 15.10 21.50 63.9% 35.25 53.93 77.12 102.56 126.15 Total Current Liabilities 11.00 20.20 23.80 38.72 57.50 80.79 106.33 130.02 % sales 19.7% 24.3% 21.6% 26.0% 29.7% 33.4% 36.6% 39.0% Net Working Capital -9.5 -16.1 -20.8 -34.5 -51.5 -72.3 -94.3 -112.8 % sales -17% -19% -19% -23% -27% -30% -32% -34%
  • 27. 26 Company Levered Beta (1) Market Value of Debt (2) Market Value of Equity (3) Debt/ Equity Equity/ Total Assets Marginal Tax Rate Unlevered Beta (4) Devry 1.47 0 1800 0.0% 100.0% 6% 1.47 Apollo 1.76 55.47 1220 4.5% 95.7% 46% 1.72 American Public 1.23 0 391 0.0% 100.0% 39% 1.23 Strayer 1.55 115.86 631 18.4% 84.5% 40% 1.40 Capella 1.58 0 623 0.0% 100.0% 40% 1.58 Median 1.55 0.0% 100.0% 1.47 Mean 1.52 4.6% 96.0% 1.48 (1) From Bloomberg (2) Book Value of Debt (3) From Bloomberg (4) Unlevered Beta = Predicted Levered Beta / (1 + Debt/Equity) x (1-t)) Relevered Beta Mean Unlevered Beta Debt/ Equity Target Marginal Tax Rate Relevered Beta Target Company 1.48 0.0% 30% 1.48 Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta DCF
  • 28. DCF 27 (1) Wacc Calculation Enterprise value Capital Structure Present value of Free Cash Flow -33.5 Debt to Total Capitalization 0.0% Equityto Total Capitalization 100.0% Terminal Value 3,100 Debt to EquityRatio 0.0% Discount Factor 12.7% Present Value of Terminal Value 1,707.6 Cost of Equity % of Enterprise Value 102% Risk-free rate (2) 2.2% Market risk Premium (3) 7.1% Enterprise value 1,674 Levered Beta (4) 1.48 Less: Total debt 0 Cost of Equity 12.7% Plus: Cash and Cash Equi. 87 Noncontrolling Interests 0 Cost of Debt Net Operating Losses -116 Cost of Debt 0.0% Taxes 30.0% Implied Equity Value 1,877 After Tax Cost of Debt 0.0% Diluted outstanding shares 41.7 Implied share price $44.97 WACC 12.7% Current share price $35.21 Implied share difference 28% DCFmodel OutputInput
  • 29. DCF 28 DCF model Sensitivity Analysis Perpetuity growth % 1,621 1,621 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% WACC 9.4% 1,886 1,886 1,886 1,886 1,886 10.4% 1,801 1,801 1,801 1,801 1,801 11.4% 1,720 1,720 1,720 1,720 1,720 12.4% 1,644 1,644 1,644 1,644 1,644 13.4% 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,572 Annual sales growth % #REF! 1,621 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 46.0% 48.0% EBITDA% 12.3% 1,823 1,849 1,874 1,899 1,924 13.3% 1,829 1,855 1,880 1,905 1,930 14.3% 1,835 1,861 1,886 1,911 1,937 15.3% 1,841 1,867 1,892 1,917 1,943 16.3% 1,847 1,873 1,898 1,924 1,949 Implied Exit Multiple #REF! $43.70 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 WACC 10.4% 43.03 45.47 47.91 50.35 52.78 11.4% 41.33 43.66 45.99 48.32 50.65 12.4% 39.71 41.94 44.17 46.40 48.63 13.4% 38.18 40.31 42.44 44.58 46.71 14.4% 36.73 38.77 40.81 42.85 44.89
  • 30. Name Ticker Last Period EndDate EV/Sales TTM EV/Sales FY1 EV/Sales FY2 EV/EBITD A TTM EV/EBITD A FY1 EV/EBITD A FY2 EV/EBIT TTM EV/EBIT FY1 EV/EBIT FY2 Total Debt/ EV Total Debt/ Equity Net Debt/ Equity Total Debt/ EBITDA FY1 Net Debt/ EBITDA FY1 EBITDA/ Int.Exp. FY1 EBITDA- Capex/ Int.Exp. FY1 EBIT/ Int.Exp. FY1 DEVRYEDUCATIONGROUPINC. DV-N 6/30/2015 0.74 0.77 0.77 5.65 4.83 4.57 8.87 7.08 6.61 0 0 -0.23 0 -1.26 54.95 38.25 37.48 APOLLOEDUCATIONGROUP,INC. APOL-O 5/31/2015 0.12 0.13 0.15 1.19 0.97 1.2 2.42 1.63 2.19 0.17 0.05 -0.81 0.16 -2.83 47.82 34.44 28.63 AMERICANPUBLICEDUCATION,INC. APEI-O 6/30/2015 0.84 0.87 0.88 3.73 4.06 4.09 4.82 5.53 5.72 0 0 -0.45 0 -1.47- - - CapellaEducationCompany CPLA-O 6/30/2015 1.15 1.14 1.1 5.47 5.28 4.99 7.34 7.16 6.7 0 0 -0.65 0 -1.4- - - STRAYEREDUCATION,INC. STRA-O 6/30/2015 1.26 1.27 1.24 5.99 6.4 6.06 7.55 8.16 7.67 0.21 0.96 -0.66 1.34 -0.93 16.67 14.42 13.09 2U,INC. TWOU-US6/30/2015 10.67 9.29 7.15NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 0 0 -1.09 0 9.87 -16.34 -23.88 -33.88 Mean 2.463333 2.245 1.881667 4.406 4.308 4.182 6.2 5.912 5.778 0.063333 0.168333 -0.64833 0.25 0.33 25.775 15.8075 11.33 Median 0.995 1.005 0.99 5.47 4.83 4.57 7.34 7.08 6.61 0 0 -0.655 0 -1.33 32.245 24.43 20.86 High 10.67 9.29 7.15 5.99 6.4 6.06 8.87 8.16 7.67 0.21 0.96 -0.23 1.34 9.87 54.95 38.25 37.48 Low 0.12 0.13 0.15 1.19 0.97 1.2 2.42 1.63 2.19 0 0 -1.09 0 -2.83 -16.34 -23.88 -33.88 29 Comparable Companies
  • 32. Prevailing Opinions • Management is on track, even very likely to be, ahead of schedule to achieving their goal of a positive adjusted EBITDA by 2017 (Three years within IPO date) • An increase in growth rate from four new programs a year to six new programs a year, due to the massive market opportunity • The company is already committed with six programs in 2016 out of the eleven they are negotiating with. • It is beginning to establish stronger bonds with previous partners as they have announced four new programs – three with NYU and its third with USC (the company’s longest standing partner) • There is a highly-visible revenue model. A significant portion of 2U’s revenue is based on returning students; therefore, by February management has visibility into more than 75% of full-year revenue. Barrington Research, BMO Capital Markets and Credit Suisse 31 Most if not every equity report has indicated that 2U will outperform the market
  • 34. Closing Statement After evaluating 2U’s fundamentals, we conclude that it’s growth potential is very evident. Accounting for all the possible catalysts that could improve the company’s brand name, market advantage and long-term growth, this company’s stock price has a very big upside in the long term. Based on a Discounted Cash Flow analysis, the average figure after a sensitivity analysis is a price of 43$, compared to 35$ today (22% upside), even though we think it could be more (50$). We recommend a Solid Buy due to the amount of catalysts that will most probably boost stock performance. 33
  • 35. Disclaimer: These materials has been prepared by the Goizueta Investment Management Group. This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the Goizueta Investment Management Group, other than to your employees. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. The Goizueta Investment Management Group does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide broker/dealer, consulting or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. The Goizueta Investment Management Group shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing. © 2014 Goizueta Investment Management Group. All Rights Reserved.
  • 37. % of Revenues per Program (Biggest clients taken into account) Data obtained from 2U’s 10K 36
  • 39. Cost Analysis Based on Data made on Excel and obtained from 2U’s 10K 38