A stock valuation and analysis financial model for selecting stocks based on a value investment strategy.
Diving into many criteria such as profitability, leverage, free cash flow and DCF analysis.
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Intel - stock valuation and analysis model - imran almaleh
1. Victoria Capital Investments
By Imran Almaleh
Stock Name Intel Corporation (INTC)
For Year Ending 2019
Current Price 54.13
Shares Outstanding 4,280,523,560
PE Ratio Current 11.45
High PE 17.14
Low PE 10.59
Average PE 13.9
PE Below Average 5 Year TRUE
2019 Operating CF 33,145,000,000
4 Year Average CAPEX (2019 High) -16,213,000,000
2019 FCF 16,932,000,000
10-y Bond Rate x5 3.1%
10-y Bond Rate x7 4.3%
HL Valuation High 127.6
HL Valuation Low 91.1
Price Safely Below Valuation TRUE
Comment
PE and Valuation Analysis
Stock is below its average PE ratio. High-level valuation seem to be indicating
undervaluation
Page 1 of 5 4/5/2020
2. Victoria Capital Investments
By Imran Almaleh
Stock Name Intel Corporation (INTC)
For Year Ending 2019
2019 ROE 27.6%
5 y Average 23.1%
Industry 5y Average 16.3%
ROE Above 5Y Average TRUE
ROE Above Industry Average TRUE
2019 ROA 15.9%
5 y Average 13.5%
Industry 5y Average 9.3%
ROA Above 5Y Average TRUE
ROA Above Industry Average TRUE
Net Profit margin TTM 29.3%
Net Profit margin 5YA 24.5%
Industry margin TTM 17.9%
NP Margin Above 5Y Average TRUE
NP Margin Above Industry Average TRUE
Comment
ROE, ROA, Profitability Analysis
Margins seem to be stronger than industry with a slight improvement in 2019 0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Net Profit margin TTM Net Profit margin 5YA Industry margin TTM
Page 2 of 5 4/5/2020
3. Victoria Capital Investments
By Imran Almaleh
Stock Name Intel Corporation (INTC)
For Year Ending 2019
2016 2017 2018 2019
Average CFO 26,623.8 Net Profit 10,316 9,601 21,053 21,048
Average CAPEX (13,199.3) Operating Cash Flow 21,808 22,110 29,432 33,145
Average FCF 13,424.5 CAPEX -9,625 -11,778 -15,181 -16,213
FCF 12,183 10,332 14,251 16,932
4Y Net Income CAGR 19.5%
4Y CFO CAGR 11.0% FCF Growth -15% 38% 19%
4Y FCF CAGR 8.6% FCF % of Net Income 118% 108% 68% 80%
Average FCF %of Net Income 93%
Average FCF %of Net Income >80% TRUE
Comment
Consistent CFO and CAPEX leading to consistent Free Cash Flows and high quality
earnings
FCF Analysis
-18,000
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
00
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Profit FCF Operating Cash Flow CAPEX
Page 3 of 5 4/5/2020
4. Victoria Capital Investments
By Imran Almaleh
Stock Name Intel Corporation (INTC)
For Year Ending 2019
a e e e e e
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
FCF Growth Assumption High 5.0% FCF (High) 16,932.0 17,778.6 18,667.5 19,600.9 20,581.0 21,610.0
FCF Growth Assumption Low 3.0% Terminal Value 1,059,313.7
Perpetual Growth (Economy GDP Growth) 2.3% ###### ###### ###### ###### ########
Discount Rate 4.3%
FCF (Low) 16,932.0 17,440.0 17,963.2 18,502.1 19,057.1 19,628.8
Valuation High 220 Terminal Value 962,197.5
Valuation Low 201 ###### ###### ###### ###### 981,826.3
Price Safely Below Valuation TRUE
Total Debt/Equity Ratio 37.3%
LT Debt to Equity MRQ 32.6%
LT Debt to Equity Industry 39.5%
Debt/Equity <50% TRUE
Debt/Equity < Industry Average TRUE
Comment
Financial health of the company seem to be strong.
DCF Analysis
Leverage Analysis
Page 4 of 5 4/5/2020
5. Victoria Capital Investments
By Imran Almaleh
Stock Name Intel Corporation (INTC)
For Year Ending 2019
Indicator True/False W% Low High Point low Point hi
PE Below Average 5 Year TRUE 5% Estimate 150 200 150.00 50.00
Price Safely Below Valuation TRUE 10%
ROE Above 5Y Average TRUE 4% DCF Analysis 200.80 220.27 200.80 19.47
ROE Above Industry Average TRUE 6% HL Valuation 91.14 127.60 91.14 36.46
ROA Above 5Y Average TRUE 4% 52 weeks High - Low 42.86 69.29 42.86 26.43
ROA Above Industry Average TRUE 6%
NP Margin Above 5Y Average TRUE 10%
NP Margin Above Industry Average TRUE 10%
Average FCF %of Net Income >80% TRUE 10%
Price Safely Below Valuation TRUE 15%
Debt/Equity <50% TRUE 10%
Debt/Equity < Industry Average TRUE 10%
Max Score 12 100%
Total Score 100%
Comment
Margins seem to be stronger than industry with a slight improvement in 2019
Consistent CFO and CAPEX leading to consistent Free Cash Flows and high quality earnings
Financial health of the company seem to be strong.
Stock is below its average PE ratio. High-level valuation seem to be indicating undervaluation
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Summary
PE and Valuation Analysis
ROE, ROA, Profitability Analysis
FCF Analysis
DCF Analysis & Leverage Analysis
The stock is attractive for a value oriented strategy
Valuation Summary
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00
Estimate
DCF Analysis
HL Valuation
52 weeks High - Low
Page 5 of 5 4/5/2020