8. Characteristics of Credible Cost Estimates Clear Identification of Task Provision for Program Uncertainties Broad Participation in Preparation Recognition of Inflation Availability of Valid Data Recognition of Excluded Costs Standardized Structure For Estimate Independent Review Of Estimates
10. Auditors should… 10 Proprietary & Confidential Cost Element Valid and Applicable Labor Includes Time Phase Break Down Calculations on each element are correct Program is Accurate Total Of Sub-Elements Escalation was applied Over time
11. Case Study - NASA 0 of 10 Projects followed All Basic Steps 3 of 10 Projects included detailed WBS 2 of 10 Measure Cost/Performance Identify Risk
12. Case Study – US Customs $1.05 BilCommercial Environmental Life Cycle No Formal Cost Model Spreadsheet No Structured Documented Process for Determining Size/Reuse Size No Relevant, Measured, Normalized Historical Cost Data to Calibrate Models Measurement
13. What is Earned Value Management? Earned Value Management (EVM)… Project management process that combines schedule performance and cost performance Answers: What did we get for the money we spent? Used since the 1960’s by the Department of Defense Central part of CERT and C/SCSC (Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria) Was recently revised and adopted as ANSI/EIA 748 13 Proprietary & Confidential
14. Example: Rail Project 14 Proprietary & Confidential Scope 4 Miles Time 4 Weeks Cost $ 4 Mil Scope 4 Miles Time 4 Weeks Cost $ 4 Mil
15. What is Earned Value Management? The Essence of Earned Value Management (EVM)… 15 Proprietary & Confidential Budget X % Complete = Earned Value
16.
17. Provides a true picture of a project’s value at any point in time
18. Ideal method of monitoring project status and likelihood of success16 Proprietary & Confidential
20. Driving Trends Affecting EVM Owner Budgets are Being Reduced Credit limitations Less capacity for risk …Leading to Greater Owner Scrutiny of Project Health Are we on track? Have we over-paid? What is the forecast? …Leading to Increased Adoption of EVM In traditional markets: Aerospace, Defense In new markets: Oil & Gas, Mining, Power, Civil, Commercial 18 Proprietary & Confidential
21. What are the Key Requirements of EVM? Step 1: Define the work 19 Proprietary & Confidential
22. What are the Key Requirements of EVM? Step 2: Assign budget (planned) values 20 Proprietary & Confidential
23. What are the Key Requirements of EVM? Step 3: Schedule the work 21 Proprietary & Confidential
24. What are the Key Requirements of EVM? Step 4: Cost-load the schedule 22 Proprietary & Confidential What does it tell the contractor? What are our expected costs over time What does it tell the owner? What is our expected spend level over time What do you need to track this value? Estimate / budget Cost-loaded schedule Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) $1,000,000 Cost $500,000 Time
25. What are the Key Requirements of EVM? Step 5: Track progress (% complete) 23 Proprietary & Confidential What does it tell the contractor? What should our costs have been based on the work we completed What does it tell the owner? What should our spend level have been based on the work completed What do you need to track this value? Estimate / budget Progress history (units completed) Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) $1,000,000 Cost $500,000 $450,000 Earned Value Time
26. What are the Key Requirements of EVM? Step 6: Track actual costs (optional) 24 Proprietary & Confidential Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) What does it tell the contractor? What have our costs actually been for the work we completed What does it tell the owner? What has our spend level actually been for the work completed What do you need to track this value? Actual costs from accounting; or “Accrued” costs Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) $1,000,000 Cost $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 Earned Value Time
27. Where is EVM trackedby: Owners, PMO’s, CM’s, Contractors Spreadsheets Finance-focused systems ERP Accounting Project-focused systems HD + Primavera HD + MS Project 25 Proprietary & Confidential
39. Earned Hours from Progress Budget Hours times % Complete = Earned Hours Progress from Field
40.
41. Case Study: Cost Earned Hours Progress From Schedule Timesheet Hours From Payroll Actual Hours divided by Earned Hours Billed Cost Discuss Forecast Calculations
Ultimately it is your responsibility to assure that the progress that is turned in is as accurate as possibleWhen monitoring work in the field, take the current schedule with you to verifyIf you have a supervisor that struggles with any part of the schedule, get the Project Controls group to helpClearly communicate the expectations to your supervisors