Imagine a company that knows which changes are coming from their competitive landscape… A company that develops products and services to meet their current customer needs while simultaneously building a pipeline of future offerings that will become new industry standards. Are we talking about Intel, GE, Google or Bank of America? No. We’re talking about you. While most assume that the future is unknowable and only the lucky few hit the sweet spot with their upcoming product and service offerings, it is possible to see accurately what lies is over the horizon. Utilizing the Trends of Innovation Evolution, both business and engineering focused organizations can understand what is coming their way and position themselves to take full advantage of industry changes. The systematic analysis of proven trends can catapult your organization into a leadership position well ahead of the remaining industry followers. The session will look specifically at examples of innovation analysis such as: - business trends that will define what your industry looks like in the future - technology trends that will manifest themselves in upcoming products and systems - how understanding innovation trends can effectively guide your organization's future David Conley, President of Innomation Corp., will present 30 minutes of thought provoking ideas on how the study and use of the Trends of Innovation Evolution can guide your organization confidently forward. David holds engineering and business degrees and just recently left his post as Intel Corporation's lead systematic innovation specialist in order to share his expertise with you. The session will moderated by Arik Johnson, Founder & Chairman of Aurora WDC and Managing Director of Aurora’s R&D lab, the Center for Organizational Reconnaissance (COR).

1. How Systematically
Analyzing Innovation Trends
Makes Industry Change
Predictable
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 23 January 2013
~ featuring ~
David Conley Arik Johnson
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3. Agenda
 Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
 Trends of Engineering Evolution
 Trends of Business Evolution
 Utilizing Trends to Power Your Crystal Ball
 Summary, Q&A and Discussion
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4. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
• The majority of organizations use traditional
forecasting techniques (i.e., extrapolation) in an
attempt to “see” into the future
Case Study – In June of 2007 an electric vehicle start
up wanted to predict gas prices in order to plan
market introduction timing for their product
The marketing group forecasted that consumers
would buy their electric vehicles once avg. US gas
prices hit $4.50 because the average driver would
then be spending over $430/month on petroleum
based fuel (equivalent electric “fuel” cost would be
$40/month)
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5. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
• Most organizations use extrapolation in an
attempt to “see” into the future
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6. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
Extrapolation said that the
product introduction target
would hit in May of 2010
$4.50 4.60
4.31
May 2010
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7. Better yet, sales would soar
Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
because prices would hit
$5.80/gallon by June of 2013
$5.80 Extrapolation said that the
product introduction target
4.60
would hit in May of 2010
$4.50 4.31
May 2010 June 2013
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8. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
• Actual average gas
prices in the US
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9. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
Extrapolated estimate
• Actual average gas resulted in a $2.60/gallon
prices in the US error
error
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10. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
Extrapolation not only assumes that
existing market profiles will hold true
• Actual average gas but that the established rates of change
prices in the US will continue into the future
error
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11. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?
Accuracy Traditional Forecasting Trends of System
Methodologies Evolution
Time
Why are Trends any better for forecasting?
 Qualitative not Quantitative
 Excellent long-range accuracy
 Effectively predicts jumps in technology and business advancements
 Effectively identifies new product, production and service opportunities
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12. Trends of Engineering System Evolution
Trend of S-Curve Evolution
Trend of Increasing
Value
Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing Trend of Increasing Trend of Flow
to the Super system Completeness of System Degree of Trimming Enhancement
Components
Trend of Uneven
Trend of Elimination Trend of Increasing
Development of
of Human Involvement Coordination
System Components
Trend of Increasing
Trends developed Controllability Hierarchy
from a 65 year of
study of over 3.5 Trend of Increasing
Trends
Dynamization
million patents
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13. Trends of Engineering System Evolution
Trend of Increasing Dynamization
bar soap bar soap w/ additive
Example: Surfactant (soap)
Monolith
Monolith (differentiated One Joint Multi-joint
parameters)
Elastic
What does this
example mean for
manufacturers of
Field Gaseous Liquid Powderer
appliances,
consumables,
clothing, etc.?
gas soap liquid soap powdered soap
field soap
Trend of
Increasing
Dynamicity
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14. Trends of Engineering System Evolution
Trend of Increasing Dynamization
Example: Print Methods
Also applies
to internal
system Monolith
components Monolith (differentiated One Joint Multi-joint
parameters)
Elastic
Field Gaseous Liquid Powderer
Trend of
Laser Jet Ink Jet Increasing
Dynamicity
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15. Trends of Engineering System Evolution
Trend of S-Curve Evolution
Trend of Increasing
Value
Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing Trend of Increasing Trend of Flow
to the Super system Completeness of System Degree of Trimming Enhancement
Components
Trend of Uneven
Trend of Elimination Trend of Increasing
Development of
of Human Involvement Coordination
System Components
Trend of Increasing
Controllability Hierarchy
of
Trend of Increasing
Dynamization Trends
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16. Trends of Engineering System Evolution
 As an eng. sys. evolves the number of system functions
performed by humans decrease.
 A decrease in human involvement leads to an increase
in system completeness.
Trend of Decreasing Human Involvement Trend of Increasing System Completeness
Humans Stop Performing: System Starts Performing:
Transmission
Energy Source
What does this
particular example
mean for Control
manufacturers of
appliances, and Trend of Decreasing
food products, or Human Involvement
the restaurant and & Increasing System
vending Decision Making Completeness
industries?
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17. Trends of Business System Evolution
Trend of S-Curve Evolution
Trend of Increasing
Value
Trend of Increasing
Trend of Increasing Customer Expectations
Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing
Completeness of Business Degree of Trimming
to the Super system
System
Trend of Customer
Purchase Focus
Trend of Increasing
Sys. Robustness
Inc. Asymmetry
Trend of Elimination Inc. Non-Linearity
of Human Involvement Trend of Increasing Inc. Dimensionality
Coordination Inc. Degrees of Freedom
Inc. Self-Org Awareness
Inc. Org. Knowledge
Trend of Increasing
Possible Controllability
Inc. Org. Competency
Inc. Process Thinking
Hierarchy of Trend of Increasing
Inc. Coord. Action
Inc. Coord. Rhythm
Trends Dynamization Inc. Dampening Reduction
Inc. Feedback and Control
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18. Trends of Business System Evolution
Trend of Increasing Customer Expectations
 As customers have more understanding of a business
system their expectations of the process increase.
commodity product service experience transformation
Ronald What will McDonalds
McDonalds
McDonald, play look like when they
Consistent move to the
areas, themed
never sold product served transformation stage
Hamburgers restaurants, (custom products
ground beef quickly and at a
commercials, target to individuals
pre-set price
clean “happy” based on company’s
stores expertise)?
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19. Trends of Business System Evolution
Trend of S-Curve Evolution
Trend of Increasing
Value
Trend of Increasing
Trend of Increasing Customer Expectations
Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing
Completeness of Business Degree of Trimming
to the Super system
System
Trend of Customer
Purchase Focus
Trend of Increasing
Sys. Robustness
Inc. Asymmetry
Trend of Elimination Inc. Non-Linearity
of Human Involvement Trend of Increasing Inc. Dimensionality
Coordination Inc. Degrees of Freedom
Inc. Self-Org Awareness
Inc. Org. Knowledge
Trend of Increasing
Possible Controllability
Inc. Org. Competency
Inc. Process Thinking
Hierarchy of Trend of Increasing
Inc. Coord. Action
Inc. Coord. Rhythm
Trends Dynamization Inc. Dampening Reduction
Inc. Feedback and Control
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20. Trends of Business System Evolution
Trend of Increasing Action Coordination
 As processes mature they increasingly coordinate with
their internal operations and with the environment
Non-coordinated Partially Fully coordinated Different actions
action coordinated action action during intervals
Pull based output i.e. - Switching to
Output coordinated
Full output regardless coordinated with R&D activities
with market forecasts
of market demand customer orders support during “non-
(semi-conductor
(subsidized farming) (computer demand” periods
manufacturing)
manufacturing) (process/product
improvement)
At what stage is your
organization and how can it be
moved up the Trend line?
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21. Utilizing Trends to Power Your Crystal Ball
1 • Establish where the analyzed system is on one or all of the
Trend lines
• Organization’s products and services
• Organization’s production and business systems
• Competitor’s products and services
2
• Identify which trend manifestations lay beyond the
current location on each Trend studied above
• Move as far down the Trend line as possible
• Not an estimate or extrapolation: identified changes
will occur
• Look for disruptive changes on the horizon
3
• Design how the current system could be modified to
suffice the future Trend states
• Plan product, service, and process changes
• Establish plans to respond to market disruptions
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22. David Conley is President of Innomation
Corporation, which he founded after leaving his post
leading systematic innovation initiatives for five of
his 17 years at global semiconductor manufacturing
leader, Intel.
Connect with David via:
Web: http://InnomationCorp.com
David Conley
Email: David@InnomationCorp.com
President, Innomation Corp.
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