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Allianz Economic Outlook 2023
1.
©Allianz 2022 Economic Outlook 23-24: Keep Calm
and Carry On Allianz Research 15 December 2022
2.
©Allianz 2022 Economic Outlook: Key
Messages • The energy crisis shaping the outlook for 2023-24. We continue to project a moderate recession in major advanced economies (US, EZ, UK) at the turn of the year due to increasingly entrenched negative confidence effects, followed by a subdued recovery after mid-2023 and weak growth in 2024. Global growth likely to slow to +1.4% and recover modestly to +2.8% in 2024. • Global trade slowing despite easing supply side constraints. New orders and backlogs of work are at their lowest levels since the pandemic in 2020. Global trade in goods and services to grow by only +0.7% in volume terms in 2023 and to contract by -1.3% in value terms. • Central banks remain determined in fighting inflation. Inflation should continue to remain strong over the coming quarters (despite strong disinflationary base effects in 2023), with core inflation remaining rather sticky next year. Inflation to average 6.4% globally in 2023 before receding to 3.9% in 2024. • Fiscal policy will only partially compensate for the impact of the energy crisis. In Europe, most of the current measures have been extended into 2023 for a total of more than 3% of GDP on average, which is about half of the Covid-19 packages. • The balance of risk remains tilted to the downside. More energy supply constraints would require gas rationing in Europe, which would push 2023 GDP growth deeply in negative territory and increase the probability of a second year of recession in 2024. Higher for longer inflation would push central banks to hike more throughout 2023 increasing the risk of a policy mistake. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SUMMARY 2
3.
©Allianz 2022 Capital Markets: Key
Messages The outlook for capital markets is mildly positive. Our economic scenario warrants a defensive tactical short-term positioning but allows for some long duration and re-risking towards the second half of 2023 and in 2024. The first half of 2023 will most likely follow the current volatile market dynamics as investors attempt front-run the recovery path. We expect fixed income (esp. IG Credit) to outperform equities in 2023. • Sovereign rates – A bit too early to overweight duration: We expect a prolonged hiking cycle, with flattened yield curves next year 10y US Treasury yield 3.6%/3.5% for 2023/2024 and 10y Bund at 1.9%/1.7% in 2023/2024 • Corporate Credit – Optimizing the risk-return profile: We expect a downturn cycle with relatively high yields but relatively few rating downgrades IG and HY credit slowly crawling towards long-term averages (IG and HY at ~140bps and ~440bps in 2024) • Equities – Caution along the investment horizon: Markets will remain challenging until real rates stabilize once central banks start their policy pivot is priced in flat total returns in 2023 and ~5%-8% total return in 2024 • Emerging Markets – Yields are high, but pressures have not left: Rising yields and strong corrections over the last two years make EMs increasingly attractive. EM HC spreads below 350bps/300bps in 2023/24 and LC yields slightly below 6.5%/6.0% in 2023/24. CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK SUMMARY 3
4.
©Allianz 2022 4
5.
©Allianz 2022 GLOBAL OUTLOOK Global growth
is losing steam 5
6.
©Allianz 2022 GLOBAL OUTLOOK Energy gap:
beware of next winter! 6
7.
©Allianz 2022 GLOBAL OUTLOOK Lower incomes
weigh on consumption 7
8.
©Allianz 2022 GLOBAL OUTLOOK Declining supply
side pressures 8
9.
©Allianz 2022 GLOBAL OUTLOOK Slowing demand
and oversupply 9
10.
©Allianz 2022 INFLATION Global inflation to
remain >6% in 2023 amid slowly declining wage pressures 10
11.
©Allianz 2022 ENERGY Energy inflation still
main inflation driver in Europe 11
12.
©Allianz 2022 POLICY RATES Rate hikes
less steep but protracted 12
13.
©Allianz 2022 PUBLIC SECTOR SUPPORT More
than EUR600bn in energy support measures in Europe 13 ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤ ⬤
14.
©Allianz 2022 GLOBAL POLICY RATES Fiscal
support >3% of GDP as financing conditions keep tightening 14
15.
©Allianz 2022 EUROZONE Momentum has defied
gloomy surveys, thanks also to labor markets resilience 15
16.
©Allianz 2022 UNITED STATES 16 Excess savings
& supply-side repair support the US economy for now
17.
©Allianz 2022 CHINA 17 Covid-19: recent easing
of restrictions won’t prevent difficult winter months
18.
©Allianz 2022 USD & CAPITAL
FLOWS 18 Strong USD and pressures on capital flows to continue
19.
©Allianz 2022 EMERGING MARKETS 19 EMs at
risk of sudden stop on the back of global liquidity tightening
20.
©Allianz 2022 EMERGING MARKETS 20 As inflationary
pressures will peak by Q1, most EMs will stop raising rates in 2023 Latest 2021 Avg. Mid-2023 End 2023 End-2024 Argentina 75,00 38,00 75,00 75,00 60,00 Brazil 13,75 4,81 13,75 12,00 11,00 Chile 11,25 1,29 11,25 8,50 7,50 Mexico 10,00 4,42 10,50 9,75 9,00 Colombia 11,00 1,94 11,00 9,00 8,00 Peru 7,50 0,77 7,25 6,25 5,25 China 3,65 3,85 3,55 3,45 3,45 Indonesia 5,25 3,52 5,75 5,50 5,00 South Korea 3,25 0,65 3,50 3,00 2,25 Malaysia 2,75 1,75 3,25 3,00 2,75 Taiwan 1,63 1,13 2,00 2,00 1,75 Philippines 5,50 2,50 5,75 5,00 4,50 Thailand 1,25 0,50 2,00 1,75 1,50 India 6,25 4,00 6,50 6,50 6,00 Czech Republic 7,00 0,98 6,75 5,50 2,75 Poland 6,75 0,37 6,50 5,75 3,75 Romania 6,75 1,35 6,75 6,25 4,00 Hungary 13,00 1,21 12,50 8,50 4,50 Russia 7,50 5,98 6,50 6,00 5,25 Turkey 9,00 17,58 7,00 28,00 17,00 South Africa 7,00 3,54 6,00 5,50 5,00 Kenya 8,75 7,00 8,50 8,00 7,00 Algeria 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 Morocco 2,00 1,50 2,75 2,75 2,25 Egypt 13,25 8,25 14,00 14,00 12,00 Nigeria 16,50 11,50 17,50 17,50 13,00 Saudi Arabia 4,50 1,00 5,25 4,50 3,50 United Arab Emirates 3,90 0,38 4,65 3,90 2,90 Qatar 5,00 2,50 5,50 5,00 4,00 Interest rate forecasts Interest rate Middle East Latin America Asia Eastern Europe Africa
21.
©Allianz 2022 POLITICAL RISK 21 Elections calendar
22.
©Allianz 2022 22
23.
©Allianz 2022 Q3 REVENUE &
EARNINGS PERFORMANCE Some sectors are already tumbling
24.
©Allianz 2022 CORPORATE OUTLOOK 24 Post-pandemic cash
overflow is being used on capex and share buybacks
25.
©Allianz 2022 2023 CORPORATE OUTLOOK 25 Further
acceleration in 2023 (+19% at the global level)
26.
©Allianz 2022 26
27.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
REMAIN CAUTIOUS IN THE SHORT RUN Caution! A bad macro reading can immediately spook markets 27
28.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
AT THE MERCY OF MONETARY POLICY Do not expect fundamentals to drive market performance until 2024 28
29.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
DO NOT CUT THE POLICY PIVOT LINE! Regional divergences will accentuate cross-country/region performance 29
30.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
SOVEREIGN RATES The long-end of the curve will continue to be dominated by monetary policy 30
31.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
CORPORATE CREDIT In this highly volatile environment high quality credit is likely to outperform 31
32.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
EQUITIES Equity had a good run for the past 10y, 23-24 are unlikely to follow the trend 32
33.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
EM FIXED INCOME EM Sovereign high yields but high pressures 33
34.
©Allianz 2022 CAPITAL MARKETS –
OUTLOOK 2023 will be a coin toss but 2024 should allow for some decent returns 34 Last Last
35.
©Allianz 2022 Thank you! 3 5
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