The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a steep decrease in the House Price Outlook (HPO), down from from +44 in March 2016 to +30 in October 2017. This means the HPO figure has more than halved since its peak in May 2015 when it was +68. This figure is driven by an eight-point decrease in expectations that average UK property prices will be higher in twelve months’ time (down from 58% in October 2016) and a corresponding six-point increase in expectations that average UK prices will be lower in a years’ time (up from 14%).

1. 1Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public
SlideShare summary
Q3 2017

2. 2
House Price Outlook (HPO)
5%
1%
3%
5%
11%
25%
24%
16%
7%
3%
Don't know Lower by 15% or
more
Lower by 10% -
15%
Lower by 5% -
10%
Lower but less
than 5% lower
The same Higher but less
than 5% higher
Higher by 5% -
10%
Higher by 10% -
15%
Higher 15% or
more
.
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
[respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI]
* UK house price benchmark given = £222,293
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

3. 3
House Price Outlook trend
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
Previous Autumn measures
+42
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO]
+30
+15
+64
+63
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
-2

4. 4
HPO and EOI trends
HPO EOI
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next
12 months?
+30
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+)
EOI measures in advance of HPO measure
-31
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
EOI - Ipsos MORI

5. 5
‘Higher’ trends
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 2 months time or will it be
the same? (HPO) > 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same
3
7
25
24
16
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

6. 6
‘Lower’ trends
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be
the same? ( HPO) > 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same
25
5
11
1
3
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

7. 7
HPO and selling sentiment
HPO Selling sentiment
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same?
Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to
sell a property?
Selling sentiment –
% agree good time to
sell
HPO – + balance of
% higher minus %
lower
47
+30
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

8. 8
Buying and selling sentiment
(±)
net good time buy
(±)
net good time sell
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
+15
+6
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

9. 9
Buying/selling sentiment combined
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
Good time buy/
bad time sell
Bad time buy/
good time sell
-5 +1 +1
Good time buy/
good time sell
Bad time buy/
bad time sell
+ change vs
Mar 2017
14%
17%
33%
22%
+4
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

10. 10
Buying sentiment – key groups
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time
or a bad time for people in general to buy a property?
+18
+10
+25
x%
+26
27
+21
+ net good time to buy
+16
+13
+23
+17
+5
-15
+18
+13
+20
+23
+26
-3
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter

11. 11
Selling sentiment – key groups
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time
or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
x%
+ net good time to sell
+9
+6
+14
+12
-4
-8
-4
+5
+20
+16
+15
Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter
-4
+22
+13
x%
-19
27
+6
-17
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

12. 12
Barriers to buying
Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers
To people in general being able to buy a property?
33%
61
42
37
37
15
15
12
9
8
5
4
1
Being able to raise enough deposit
Job security
Rising property prices
Household finances
The general availability of mortgages
Concern about rises in interest rates
Fees related to buying a house
Shortage of the right type of property
Shortage of property for sale
The level of stamp duty/taxation
Falling property prices
Don't know
+1
Change +
vs Mar17
+1
+1
-1
+2
-1
+2
+7
-2
0
-2
-4
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

13. 13
Barriers to buying - trend data
Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers
to people in general being able to buy a property?
% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices
% raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy
% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation
61
42
37
15
9,8
5,4
12
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

14. 14Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public
Additional questions

15. 15
Mortgage rates
Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in rates
affecting your ability to pay your mortgage payments?*
6%
30%
33%
31%
1%
Very concerned
Fairly concerned
Not very
concerned
Not at all
concerned
Don't know
Base: 535 mortgage holders 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 (1,090 in 2014) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
*Question in 2014: Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in interest rates affecting your mortgage payments?
12%
30%
24%
28%
7%
Very concerned
Fairly concerned
Not very
concerned
Not at all
concerned
Don't know
2017 2014

16. 16
Regional house prices
Q. Will the average price in 12 months’ time here be higher, lower or about the same in…
London GB London Non-
London
% higher 70 64 71
% lower 11 19 9
Mids GB Mids Non-Mids
% higher 37 48 34
% lower 12 8 13
N Eng GB N Eng Non-
N Eng
% higher 31 39 28
% lower 17 15 18
S Eng GB S Eng Non-
S Eng
% higher 61 65 60
% lower 9 10 9
Scotland GB Scot Non-Scot
% higher 26 35 25
% lower 15 16 15
Wales GB Wales Non-
Wales
% higher 22 25 22
% lower 17 22 17
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

17. 17
Regional house prices: trends
Q. Will the average price in 12 months’ time here be higher, lower or about the same in…
London GB London Non-
London
% higher -2 -10 -4
% lower +2 +7 +1
Mids GB Mids Non-Mids
% higher 0 +5 -2
% lower -1 -6 +1
N Eng GB N Eng Non-
N Eng
% higher +1 +3 0
% lower +1 0 -1
S Eng GB S Eng Non-
S Eng
% higher 0 -5 +1
% lower 0 +2 0
Scotland GB Scot Non-Scot
% higher -2 -5 -2
% lower -2 -3 -2
Wales GB Wales Non-
Wales
% higher -1 -11 -1
% lower -1 -4 -1
Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 (1,953, 30 Sep- 19 Oct 2016 ) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

18. 18Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public
Further information
ben.marshall@ipsos.com
alexandra.aslaksen@ipsos.com