The second instalment of Ipsos MORI's June 2015 Political Monitor looks at the EU Referendum, Leader and government satisfaction and IPSA's salary recommendations for MPs.

1. 2015
POLITICAL MONITOR

2. SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

3. CONSERVATIVE UKIP GOVERNMENT
+4.5%
swing from April 2015
+3.5%
swing from April 2015
+4.0%
swing from April 2015
+7 Net -18 Net -3 Net
SATISFIED 49% SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 43%
DISSATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 47% DISSATISFIED 46%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
3HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-100
+100

4. Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb ‘08 – June ‘15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
4HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
49%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Feb08
Jun08
Oct08
Feb09
Jun09
Oct09
Feb10
Jun10
Oct10
Feb11
Jun11
Oct11
Feb12
Jun12
Oct12
Feb13
Jun13
Oct13
Feb14
Jun14
Oct14
Feb15
Jun15
CAMERON FARAGE

5. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
5HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

6. David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015
6ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
49%
42%
8%
June 2015 May 2006 – June 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May-06
Oct-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 49%
DISSATISFIED 42%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = +7
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

7. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 329 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
7ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
90%
6% 4%
June 2015 May 2006 – June 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May06
Jan07
Sep07
Apr08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 90%
DISSATISFIED 6%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +84
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

8. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015
8ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
29%
47%
25%
June 2015 March 2013 – June 2015
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 29%
DISSATISFIED 47%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = -18
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

9. Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 61 UKIP supporters, 14th -16th June 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only
9ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
83%
12%
5%
June 2015 March 2013 – June 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
SATISFIED 83%
DISSATISFIED 12%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = +71
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

10. ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

11. Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015
11DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
June 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
May-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-117
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
IMPROVE 42%
STAY THE SAME 28%
GET WORSE 26%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = +16

12. The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
12DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
May1997
Dec1997
Jul1998
Feb1999
Sep1999
Apr2000
Nov2000
Jun2001
Jan2002
Aug2002
Mar2003
Oct2003
May2004
Dec2004
Jul2005
Feb2006
Sep2006
Apr2007
Nov2007
Jun2008
Jan2009
Aug2009
Mar2010
Oct2010
May2011
Dec2011
Jul2012
Feb2013
Sep2013
Apr2014
Nov2014
Jun2015
+16

13. EUROPE

14. Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?
Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
14
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2014 June 2015
36%
56%
8%
27%
61%
12%
STAY IN GET OUT DON’T KNOW

15. Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?
Trend since 1977
15
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
26%
60% 63%
52%
49%
53%
51%
41%
61%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35%
32%
39%
49%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jun-77
Jun-79
Jun-81
Jun-83
Jun-85
Jun-87
Jun-89
Jun-91
Jun-93
Jun-95
Jun-97
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Jun-15
Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
STAY IN GET OUT

16. EU Referendum question:
Should the UK remain an EU member?
16SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Base: 504 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
June 2015
YES NO DON’T KNOW
22%
66%
12%

17. Britain’s future role in Europe
17
WHICH OF THE OPTIONS BEST DESCRIBES YOUR OWN PREFERENCE FOR BRITAIN'S FUTURE ROLE IN
EUROPE?
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
13%
17%
20%
23%
19%
33%
34%
30%
28%
28%
31%
29%
32%
29%
24%
14%
14%
13%
13%
24%
Britain leaving the
European Union
altogether
Britain’s relationship
with Europe
remaining broadly
the same as at
present
Britain returning to
being part on
economic
community, without
political links
Britain and other
member states of the
European Union
moving towards
closer political and
economic
integration
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15

18. 6%
32%
37%
20%
4%
Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU
deal for Britain
18
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD
DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
VERY CONFIDENT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT
NOT VERY
CONFIDENT
NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT
NO OPINION
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
November 2014 June 2015
4%
22%
40%
29%
5%

19. Should all cabinet ministers have to keep to the
government’s position on the EU referendum?
19
AND STILL THINKING ABOUT A REFERENDUM ON BRITISH MEMBERSHOP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,
DO YOU THINK THAT ALL CABINET MINISTERS SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL
GOVERNMENT POSITION ON BRITISH MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, OR SHOULD THEY BE ALLOWED TO
CAMPAIGN FOR THE POSITION THEY BELIEVE MOST, EVEN IT IT’S DIFFERENT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S POLICY?
June 2015
THEY SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO SUPPORT
THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT POSITION
THEY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO CAMPAIGN
FOR THE POSITION THEY BELIEVE MOST DON’T KNOW
74%
19%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015

20. 2015
POLITICAL MONITOR