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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor February 2017

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Theresa May continues to have strong backing from the British public according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. The new poll reveals that the Prime Minister’s honeymoon is yet to end with more than half (53%) of the public satisfied with her performance (up 8 points). One in three (36%) said they were dissatisfied with her (down 3 points) leaving Ms May a net satisfaction score of +17 (up 11 points).

Publié dans : Actualités & Politique
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor February 2017

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORI February 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public 40% 29% 9% 4% 13% 5% HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 748. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE. Voting Intention 37% 31% 8% 4% 13% 7% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +6 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +11 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Aug03 Feb04 Aug04 Feb05 Aug05 Feb06 Aug06 Feb07 Aug07 Feb08 Aug08 Feb09 Aug09 Feb10 Aug10 Feb11 Aug11 Feb12 Aug12 Feb13 Aug13 Feb14 Aug14 Feb15 Aug15 Feb16 Aug16 Feb17 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: August ‘03 – February ‘17 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  5. 5. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  6. 6. 6Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The Government ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 36% 54% 11% 53%36% 10% 24% 62% 15% +5.5% swing from January 2017 -1.5% swing from January 2017 +1% swing from January 2017 +17 Net -38 Net -18 Net SATISFIED 53% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 62% DISSATISFIED 54%
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Feb 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 MAY CORBYN 53% 24%
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present) Corbyn
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction) 53% 36% 10% February 2017 August 2016 – February 2017 SATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 36% DON’T KNOW 10% Net = +17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 343 Conservative supporters 18+ , 10th – 14th February 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters 89% 8% 4% February 2017 SATISFIED 89% DISSATISFIED 8% DON’T KNOW 4% Net = +81 August 2016 – February 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public 24% 62% 15% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 SATISFIED 24% DISSATISFIED 62% DON’T KNOW 15% Net = -38 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) February 2017 September 2015 – February 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public 41% 50% 9% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 SATISFIED 41% DISSATISFIED 50% DON’T KNOW 9% Net = -9 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 264 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) February 2017 September 2015 – February 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 14 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public 28% 24% 44% 4% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jul-117 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 IMPROVE 28% STAY THE SAME 24% GET WORSE 44% DON’T KNOW 4% EOI = -16 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 Economic Optimism Index February 2017
  16. 16. 16Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun1997 Oct1997 Feb1998 Jun1998 Oct1998 Feb1999 Jun1999 Oct1999 Feb2000 Jun2000 Oct2000 Feb2001 Jun2001 Oct2001 Feb2002 Jun2002 Oct2002 Feb2003 Jun2003 Oct2003 Feb2004 Jun2004 Oct2004 Feb2005 Jun2005 Oct2005 Feb2006 Jun2006 Oct2006 Feb2007 Jun2007 Oct2007 Feb2008 Jun2008 Oct2008 Feb2009 Jun2009 Oct2009 Feb2010 Jun2010 Oct2010 Feb2011 Jun2011 Oct2011 Feb2012 Jun2012 Oct2012 Feb2013 Jun2013 Oct2013 Feb2014 Jun2014 Oct2014 Feb2015 Jun2015 Oct2015 Feb2016 Jun2016 Oct2016 Feb2017 -16
  17. 17. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 17 Foreign Relations
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public 47% 29% 19% 5% EUROPE 47% AMERICA 29% COMMONWEALTH 19% DON’T KNOW 5% WHICH OF THESE - EUROPE, THE COMMONWEALTH OR AMERICA - IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO BRITAIN? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 Britain’s foreign relations February 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1969 1984 1986 1989 1991 1993 1996 2002 2003 2014 2017
  19. 19. 19Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, WITH WHICH OF THESE FOREIGN LEADERS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THERESA MAY SHOULD TRY TO BUILD THE STRONGEST RELATIONSHIP? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 Theresa May’s relations with other leaders 26 24 17 12 5 3 3 1 4 6 Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor Donald Trump, the US President Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission Xi Jinping, the Chinese President Vladimir Putin, the Russian President Francois Hollande, the French President None of them Other All of them Don’t know
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public AS YOU MAY KNOW, DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO VISIT BRITAIN LATER THIS YEAR IN AN OFFICIAL STATE VISIT HOSTED BY THE QUEEN. DO YOU THINK HE SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN INVITED TO A STATE VISIT TO BRITAIN THIS YEAR? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 President Trump’s state visit 53 42 SHOULD SHOULD NOT
  21. 21. 21Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public AND IF DONALD TRUMP DOES VISIT BRITAIN LATER THIS YEAR, DO YOU THINK HE SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT….? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 President Trump’s state visit 44 43 45 47 52 43 SHOULD SHOULD NOT Visit a London mosque or Muslim community group Be invited to give a speech to peers and MPs in the Houses of Parliament Be invited to play a round of golf on the Queen’s golf course at Balmoral
  22. 22. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 22 February 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

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