Public optimism over the strength of the economy has fallen sharply in the last month according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. More than half (53%, up from 37% in September) think the economy will get worse over the next twelve months, with a quarter (24%) thinking it will get better and 17% saying it will stay the same – leaving an overall Economic Optimism Index score of -29 (compared with -1 in September).

1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORI
October 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. 3Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
47%
29%
6%
4%
7%
7%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends
vote in General Elections = 749. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015
GE.
Voting Intention
45%
32%
7%
4%
7%
5%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +13
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +18
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER

4. 4Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr03
Oct03
Apr04
Oct04
Apr05
Oct05
Apr06
Oct06
Apr07
Oct07
Apr08
Oct08
Apr09
Oct09
Apr10
Oct10
Apr11
Oct11
Apr12
Oct12
Apr13
Oct13
Apr14
Oct14
Apr15
Oct15
Apr16
Oct16
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 700 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: April ‘03 – Oct ‘16
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

5. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS

6. 6Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
22%
34%
44%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
37%
53%
9%
-5.5%
swing from September
2016
+3.5%
swing from September
2016
-0.5%
swing from September2016
- 1.5%
swing from September
2016
+16 Net -24 Net -12 Net -16 Net
SATISFIED 48% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 34% 3DISSATISFIED 53%
48%
32%
19%
31%
55%
15%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government

7. 7Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – October’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
MAY CORBYN FARRON
48%
31%
22%

8. 8Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May

9. 9Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)

10. 10Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Theresa May (satisfaction)
48%
32%
19%
October 2016 September 2016
SATISFIED 48%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = +16
54%
27%
19%
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = +27

11. 11Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 376 Conservative supporters 18+ 14th – 17th October 2016 and 345 Conservative supporters 18+ 10th – 14th September
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
80%
8%
12%
October 2016 September 2016
SATISFIED 80%
DISSATISFIED 8%
DON’T KNOW 12%
Net = +72
81%
8%
11%
SATISFIED 81%
DISSATISFIED 6%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = +75

12. 12Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
31%
55%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 55%
DON’T KNOW 15%
Net = -24
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

13. 13Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
54%
32%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = +22
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 274 Labour supporters 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

14. 14Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
22%
34%
44%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 34%
DON’T KNOW 44%
Net = -12
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

15. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 15
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

16. 16Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
24%
17%53%
5%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Oct-15
Aprl-16
Oct-16
IMPROVE 24%
STAY THE SAME 17%
GET WORSE 53%
DON’T KNOW 5%
EOI = -29
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Economic Optimism Index
October 2016

17. 17Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Feb1997
Jun1997
Oct1997
Feb1998
Jun1998
Oct1998
Feb1999
Jun1999
Oct1999
Feb2000
Jun2000
Oct2000
Feb2001
Jun2001
Oct2001
Feb2002
Jun2002
Oct2002
Feb2003
Jun2003
Oct2003
Feb2004
Jun2004
Oct2004
Feb2005
Jun2005
Oct2005
Feb2006
Jun2006
Oct2006
Feb2007
Jun2007
Oct2007
Feb2008
Jun2008
Oct2008
Feb2009
Jun2009
Oct2009
Feb2010
Jun2010
Oct2010
Feb2011
Jun2011
Oct2011
Feb2012
Jun2012
Oct2012
Feb2013
Jun2013
Oct2013
Feb2014
Jun2014
Oct2014
Feb2015
Jun2015
Oct2015
Feb2016
Jun2016
Oct2016
-29

18. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 18
Impact of Brexit

19. 19Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE
BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
ASKED IN MAY AS:
IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD
BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Brexit and standard of living
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
7
9
13
11
12
11
46
39
24
19
24
24
10
12
25
7
4
4
May-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
A lot better A little better Make no difference
A little worse A lot worse Don't know

20. 20Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
18
47
30
5
14
55
26
5
QA: RECENTLY THE VALUE OF THE BRITISH POUND HAS DECREASED COMPARED WITH OTHER
CURRENCIES. (QB INCLUDES: THIS IS LIKELY TO MEAN IMPORTS TO BRITAIN FROM OTHER
COUNTRIES WILL BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE, WHILE BRITISH EXPORTS TO OTHER COUNTRIES WILL
BE MORE COMPETITIVE). ON BALANCE, DO YOU THINK THE FALL IN THE POUND IS A GOOD THING
OR A BAD THING FOR BRITAIN, OR DOES IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
The depreciation of the Pound (Split samples)
QA QB
GOOD THING BAD THING MAKES NO DIFFERENCE DON’T KNOW

21. 21Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
45%
39%
4%
7%
5%
AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE
HAVING ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE
HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION NEITHER PRIORITISE HAVING BOTH DON’T KNOW

22. 22Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION
18-34
35-54
55+
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100
24%
54%
34%
38%
50%
35%
43%
29%
51%
57%
50%
32%
50%
39%
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?

23. 23Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION
Scotland
England
North England
Midlands & Wales
London
Rest of South
Degree or higher
Other qualifications
No qualifications
Conservative
Labour
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100
61%
42%
42%
42%
55%
39%
67%
40%
26%
38%
58%
22%
41%
38%
46%
31%
41%
18%
45%
53%
28%
45%
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?

24. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 24
Party Image

25. 25Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
18%
34%
15%
29%
18%
42%
45%
25%
30%
11%
18%
11%
29%
69%
23%
41%
21%
33%
26%
56%
59%
26%
48%
47%
38%
53%
37%
53%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Positive attributes of party image

26. 26Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
55%
35%
9%
46%
61%
64%
57%
55%
57%
82%
38%
61%
65%
52%
27%
45%
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Out of date
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Negative attributes of party image

27. 27Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
30%
48%
49%
68%
38%
29%
37%
56%
32%
48%
62%
26%
48%
47%
65%
52%
27%
38%
53%
37%
45%
53%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Conservative party image

28. 28Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
26%
51%
27%
60%
75%
36%
43%
35%
61%
55%
62%
23%
41%
21%
57%
82%
38%
33%
26%
56%
61%
59%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Labour party image
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015

29. 29Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
21%
43%
18%
60%
52%
69%
27%
16%
39%
48%
76%
25%
30%
11%
61%
64%
57%
18%
11%
29%
55%
69%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor483 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
UKIP party image
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015

30. 30Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
19%
46%
16%
59%
50%
12%
33%
17%
55%
53%
55%
18%
34%
15%
55%
35%
9%
29%
18%
42%
46%
45%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor533 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Liberal Democrats party image
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015

31. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
31
October 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR