As the Brexit negotiations continue Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor reveals little confidence among the public that the Prime Minister will get a good deal for Britain. Three in five (60%) are either ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ confident in the PM getting a good deal – just over a third (36%) are either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ confident in her. Nonetheless two-thirds (66%) of Conservative supporters have confidence that she will strike a good deal compared with one in five (19%) Labour supporters and quarter (26%) of Liberal Democrats. Overall few members of the public think Theresa May is doing a good job handling Brexit. A third (32%) say she is doing a good job but a majority (55%) say she is doing a bad job. Neither of these measures show any real change since last asked in July, but both are down from Mrs May’s ratings before the election.

1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORIPOLITICAL
MONITOR
October
2017

2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. 3Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it
depends vote in General Elections = 809. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%
Voting Intention
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2
38%
40%
9%
4%
3%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
UKIP
GREEN
37%
39%
11%
5%
3%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
UKIP
GREEN

4. 4Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jun15
Jul15
Aug15
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
2015 General Election
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

5. 5Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
Jan14
Jul14
Jan15
Jul15
Jan16
Jul16
Jan17
Jul17
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – October ‘17
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

6. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 6
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS

7. 7Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Theresa May
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
30%
59%
11%
37%
53%
11%
42%
45%
14%
Jeremy Corbyn The Government
+0.5%
swing from September
2017
0%
swing from September
2017
-3%
swing from September
2017
+0.5%
swing from September
2017
-16 Net -3 Net -7 Net -29 Net
SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 30%
DISSATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 45% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 59%
26%
33%
42%
Vince Cable

8. 8Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER
/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Oct 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Oct17
MAY CORBYN CABLE
37%
42%
26%

9. 9Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2017)
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
Number of months after becoming Prime Minister

10. 10Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2017)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Hague (97-01) Ducan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)
Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)
Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)
Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
Corbyn

11. 11Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 27th October – 1st November 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction)
37%
53%
11%
October 2017 August 2016 – October 2017
SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 53%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = -16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

12. 12Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 356 Conservative supporters 18+ , 27th October – 1st November 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)
72%
23%
5%
October 2017
SATISFIED 72%
DISSATISFIED 23%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = +49
August 2016 – October 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

13. 13Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
42%
45%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 45%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = -3
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 27th October – 1st November 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
October 2017 September 2015 – October 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

14. 14Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
71%
21%
8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
SATISFIED 71%
DISSATISFIED 21%
DON’T KNOW 8%
Net = +50
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 349 Labour supporters 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
October 2017 September 2015 – October 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

15. 15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
26%
33%
42%
SATISFIED 26%
DISSATISFIED 33%
DON’T KNOW 42%
Net = -7
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Vince Cable (satisfaction)
October 2017
Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017

16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

17. 17Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
19%
24%51%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-117
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Aprl-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
IMPROVE 19%
STAY THE SAME 24%
GET WORSE 51%
DON’T KNOW 6%
EOI = -32
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017
Economic Optimism Index
October 2017

18. 18Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Economic Optimism has been on downward trend since
2014
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Nov1997
Mar1998
Jul1998
Nov1998
Mar1999
Jul1999
Nov1999
Mar2000
Jul2000
Nov2000
Mar2001
Jul2001
Nov2001
Mar2002
Jul2002
Nov2002
Mar2003
Jul2003
Nov2003
Mar2004
Jul2004
Nov2004
Mar2005
Jul2005
Nov2005
Mar2006
Jul2006
Nov2006
Mar2007
Jul2007
Nov2007
Mar2008
Jul2008
Nov2008
Mar2009
Jul2009
Nov2009
Mar2010
Jul2010
Nov2010
Mar2011
Jul2011
Nov2011
Mar2012
Jul2012
Nov2012
Mar2013
Jul2013
Nov2013
Mar2014
Jul2014
Nov2014
Mar2015
Jul2015
Nov2015
Mar2016
Jul2016
Nov2016
Mar2017
Jul2017
-32

19. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19
Brexit

20. 20Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER
OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Impact of Brexit on people’s standard of living
18
21
24
18
20
46
39
24
40
41
29
36
49
37
36
7
4
4
5
4
BETTER
MAKES NO
DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW
May ‘16
July ‘16
Oct ‘17
Oct ‘16
March ‘17
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

21. 21Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THERESA MAY HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT
FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
32
35
49
51
55
55
40
35
Oct-17
Jul-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

22. 22Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR
BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?
Base: 1,071 British adults 18+, 14th – 18th July 2017
Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain
5%
6%
11%
5%
35%
30%
33%
29%
4
3
5
4
31%
31%
28%
35%
29%
29%
23%
27%
Theresa May October 2017
Theresa May July 2017
Theresa May March 2017
(David Cameron February 2016)
VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23. 23Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public
45%
44%
49%
49%
39%
42%
41%
37%
AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c1,000 British adults each month
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION
Jan 2017
Oct 2016
Jul 2017
Oct 2017

24. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
24
Ipsos MORI
October 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR