As party conference season begins new Ipsos MORI polling reveals the public remain more positive about the new Prime Minister than they do Jeremy Corbyn on many key leader image attributes.
Theresa May continues to enjoy her honeymoon period with more than half (54%) of Britons satisfied with her performance as Prime Minister and 27% saying they are dissatisfied – leaving her a net satisfaction score of +27 (although down by 8 points from last month). Jeremy Corbyn however continues to struggle with public approval with 27% satisfied in him doing his job as leader of the Labour party and three in five (58%) dissatisfied - leaving him a net score of -31 (up 2 points). While Theresa May has overwhelming support from her own party (81% satisfied and 6% dissatisfied) Labour voters are split on their assessment of their leader (47% satisfied vs. 46% dissatisfied, although this has improved since August).
2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3. 3Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
40%
34%
9%
5%
6%
6%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it
depends vote in General Elections = 758. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the
2015 GE.
Voting Intention
38%
35%
10%
4%
7%
6%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +3
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +6
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
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SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
5. 5Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
22%
33%
45%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
39%
52%
9%
-4%
swing from August 2016
+1%
swing from August 2016
-1.5%
swing from August 2016
- 4.5%
swing from August 2016
+27 Net -31 Net -11 Net -13 Net
SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 39%
DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 33% 3DISSATISFIED 52%
54%
27%
19%
27%
58%
15%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government
6. 6Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – August’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
MAY CORBYN FARRON
54%
27%
22%
7. 7Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
8. 8Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
9. 9Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Theresa May (satisfaction)
54%
27%
19%
September 2016 August 2016
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = +27
54%
19%
27%
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 19%
DON’T KNOW 27%
Net = +35
10. 10Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 345 Conservative supporters 18+ 10th – 14th September and 368 Conservative supporters 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
81%
6%
13%
September 2016 August 2016
SATISFIED 81%
DISSATISFIED 6%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = +75
76%
4%
20%
SATISFIED 76%
DISSATISFIED 4%
DON’T KNOW 20%
Net = +72
11. 11Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
27%
58%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
SATISFIED 27%
DISSATISFIED 58%
DON’T KNOW 15%
Net = -31
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
September 2016 September 2015 – September 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
12. 12Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
47%
46%
8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
SATISFIED 47%
DISSATISFIED 46%
DON’T KNOW 8%
Net = +1
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 298 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
September 2016 September 2015 – September 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
13. 13Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
22%
33%
45%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 33%
DON’T KNOW 45%
Net = -11
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
September 2016 September 2015 – September 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
14. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 14
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
15. 15Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
36%
24%
37%
3%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
IMPROVE 36%
STAY THE SAME 24%
GET WORSE 37%
DON’T KNOW 3%
EOI = -1
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Economic Optimism Index
September 2016
16. 16Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Feb1997
Jul1997
Dec1997
May1998
Oct1998
Mar1999
Aug1999
Jan2000
Jun2000
Nov2000
Apr2001
Sep2001
Feb2002
Jul2002
Dec2002
May2003
Oct2003
Mar2004
Aug2004
Jan2005
Jun2005
Nov2005
Apr2006
Sep2006
Feb2007
Jul2007
Dec2007
May2008
Oct2008
Mar2009
Aug2009
Jan2010
Jun2010
Nov2010
Apr2011
Sep2011
Feb2012
Jul2012
Dec2012
May2013
Oct2013
Mar2014
Aug2014
Jan2015
Jun2015
Nov2015
Apr2016
Sep2016
-1
17. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 17
Leader image
18. 18Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN
SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO ……?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Leader Image – Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
68%
52%
56%
61%
43%
25%
37%
55%
75%
44%
24%
18%
30%
44%
44%
24%
32%
38%
49%
52%
Capable leader
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Understands the problems facing Britain
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Has a clear vision for Britain
Patriotic
More honest than most politicians
MAY CORBYN
19. 19Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN
SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THERESA MAY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Leader Image – Theresa May
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
62%
51%
46%
51%
64%
45%
41%
56%
76%
30%
68%
52%
56%
61%
43%
25%
37%
55%
75%
44%
Capable leader
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Understands the problems facing Britain
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Has a clear vision for Britain
Patriotic
More honest than most politicians
SEPTEMBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015 (DAVID CAMERON)
20. 20Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN
SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY
CORBYN?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Leader Image – Jeremy Corbyn
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
32%
23%
32%
49%
39%
25%
41%
47%
37%
54%
24%
18%
30%
44%
44%
24%
32%
38%
49%
52%
Capable leader
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Understands the problems facing Britain
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Has a clear vision for Britain
Patriotic
More honest than most politicians
SEPTEMBER 2015 SEPTEMBER 2016
21. 21Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
HOW MUCH, IF AT ALL, DO YOU TRUST ………. TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS FOR BRITAIN ON
IMMIGRATION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Immigration and Brexit
Theresa May
8
23
26
38
4
Jeremy Corbyn
A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT NOT VERY MUCH NOT AT ALL DON’T KNOW
10
4721
17
6
22. 22Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… THERESA MAY AND THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Leaders and their parties – Theresa May
32%
28%
6%
27%
7%
May & the Conservative
Party
%
September
2016
Change
since
September
2015 (David
Cameron)
Total like her 60 +16
Total do not like her 33 -19
Total like the party 38 -3
Total do not like the party 55 0
I LIKE HER AND I
LIKE THE PARTY
I LIKE HER BUT I DO
NOT LIKE THE
PARTY
I DO NOT LIKE HER
BUT I LIKE THE
PARTY
I DO NOT LIKE HER
AND I DO NOT LIKE
THE PARTY
DON’T KNOW
23. 23Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… JEREMY CORBYN AND THE
LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Leaders and their parties – Jeremy Corbyn
Corbyn & the Labour
Party
%
September
2016
Change
since
September
2015
Total like him 37 0
Total do not like him 54 -1
Total like the party 46 +6
Total do not like the party 45 -7
23%
14%
23%
31%
8%
I LIKE HIM AND I
LIKE THE PARTY
I LIKE HIM BUT I DO
NOT LIKE THE
PARTY
I DO NOT LIKE HIM
BUT I LIKE THE
PARTY
I DO NOT LIKE HIM
AND I DO NOT LIKE
THE PARTY
DON’T KNOW
24. 24Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… TIM FARRON AND THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRAT PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016
Leaders and their parties – Tim Farron
Farron & the Liberal
Democrat Party
%
September
2016
Change
since
September
2015
Total like him 23 -1
Total do not like him 46 +2
Total like the party 28 0
Total do not like the party 41 +1
15%
8%
13%
33%
31%
I LIKE HIM AND I
LIKE THE PARTY
I LIKE HIM BUT I DO
NOT LIKE THE
PARTY
I DO NOT LIKE HIM
BUT I LIKE THE
PARTY
I DO NOT LIKE HIM
AND I DO NOT LIKE
THE PARTY
DON’T KNOW