Public Attitudes Towards Scotland's Constitutional Future

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Public Attitudes Towards Scotland’s March 2nd 2012

Constitutional Future
The Times Conference
Scotland and the Union: what future?

2

Support for
independence…

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Four in ten Scots voters support independence, but brand logo
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half oppose it 3

Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

All All who are certain to vote

Undecided Undecided
13% Yes 11% Yes

37% 39%

50%
50%

No No

Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

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Support for independence is higher among men, younger brand logo
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people and those living in most deprived areas 4


70 Yes No

60

50

40
%

30

20

10

0
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Most Least Born in Born
deprived deprived Scotland elsewhere
areas areas

Base: All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012


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Those who oppose independence are more likely to brand logo
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have made their mind up 5


Support independence Oppose independence

May change Definitely May change Definitely
mind decided mind 15% decided
26%

74%
85%

Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012


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Support for independence – 35 year trend brand logo
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60

50 Scottish Parliament opens
Support for independence (%)

Introduction of the poll tax
Devolution referendum SNP form majority
in Scotland
government
40

30

20
SNP form minority
government
10
Devolution referendum

0

2011
1988

1995
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

2012
Data collected by Ipsos MORI (previously MORI). Fieldwork conducted face-to-face or by telephone amongc1,000 Scottish adults per wave. Please note, data from 1999-2008 comes from the Scottish Social
Attitudes Survey, conducted face-to-face among c1200-1500 Scottish adults.


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Almost half of Scots would like the referendum to brand logo
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be held within the next 18 months 7

When do you think the referendum should be held?

Support independence
All Oppose independence

Within the next 18 31%
2%5%
months 63%

9% Within next the 18 months
After Summer 2013
but before Autumn
16%
2014 11%
After summer 2013 but
before Autumn 2014 Autumn 2014
39%
Autumn 2014 9%
47%
After Autumn 2014 8%
22% After Autumn 2014
10%
Never/shouldn't be held
Never/shouldn't be *%
held 4%
Don't know

Don't know
5%
4%
15%
0% 25% 50% 75%

Base: All (1,005); All who would vote Yes (374); All who would vote No (499). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29
January 2012


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Attitudes toward
‘devolution max’…

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65%
Of Scots have heard of
„devolution max‟.

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59% X X
Of Scots think that a separate
„devolution max‟ question
should be on the ballot paper.

X 37% Of Scots think that the
referendum should only
include a question on
independence.

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Majority of Scots support devolution max proposal here
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Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more
laws and duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK?

All All who are certain to vote

Undecided Undecided
Disagree 5% Agree Disagree 5% Agree

24% 25%

71% 71%

Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012


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The vast majority of those who support brand logo
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independence also support devolution max 12
Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws
and duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK?

Undecided
9%

Oppose
devolution 41%
max
Support
devolution
max
88%

53%

Support independence Oppose independence

Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012


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Party support for independence and devolution max here
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Party support

76%
89%

10%
59%
Support independence
2% Support devolution max
38%

11%
62%

Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012


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Scots’ perceptions
of the impact of
independence on
their personal
circumstances and
the prospects for
the country as a
whole…

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Personal finances here
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Q: Do you think your personal finances will improve, stay the same or get worse…

In the next five years If Scotland were to become an
Don‟t know – 2%
independent country
Get worse Improve Don‟t know
7% Improve
22%
30% 34%

36%

35%
Stay the same 33% Get worse Stay the same

Net optimism = +4% Net optimism = -14%


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Job security here
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Q: Do you think your job security will improve, stay the same or get worse…

Don‟t know – 3%
independent country
Improve Don‟t know
Get worse
18% 5% Improve
19% 19%
Get worse
26%

60% 50%
Stay the same Stay the same

Net optimism = -1% Net optimism = -7%
Base: All those currently working (581). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012


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Economic conditions in Scotland here
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Q: Do you think economic conditions in Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse…

Don‟t know – 4%
independent country
Improve Don‟t know
8% Improve

34%
34%
39%

45%

Get worse 13%
23% Get worse Stay the same
Stay the same
Net optimism = -5% Net optimism = -11%


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Scotland’s standing in the world brand logo
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18

Q: Do you think Scotland’s standing in the world will improve, stay the same or get worse…

independent country
Don‟t know
Improve Don‟t know – 4%
4%
6%
Get worse Improve
17% Get worse
39%
33% 42%

38%
Stay the same Stay the same 21%

Net optimism = +22% Net optimism = +9%


Who should lead the ‘No’ Of those who could…
campaign?
David Cameron 25%

55% of Scots could not name someone
Johann Lamont 9%
?
Alistair Darling 7%

0% 10% 20% 30%
Base: All (1,005), all naming someone (450). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+,
27-29 January 2012

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National identity here
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Q: Which of the following best describes your national identity?

All Born in Support Oppose
Scotland independence independence

Scottish not
24% 28% 46% 8%
British
More Scottish
30% 34% 31% 26%
then British

Equally Scottish
31% 32% 15% 44%
and British

More British
4% 2% 3% 6%
than Scottish
British not
7% 3% 3% 12%
Scottish


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Technical details brand logo
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,005 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 27th January – 29th January 2012
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS 2007-2008 data; and
public-private sector employment using Scottish
Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series
data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don‟t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,005) unless
otherwise stated


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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
@IpsosMORIScot

© Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.

Public Attitudes Towards Scotland's Constitutional Future

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Public Attitudes Towards Scotland's Constitutional Future