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Chapter 6.ppt
1.
ninth edition STEPHEN P.
ROBBINS PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook The University of West Alabama MARY COULTER © 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Decision-Making: The Essence of the Manager’s Job Chapter 6
2.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–2 Types of Programmed Decisions • Policy A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem. • Procedure A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem. • Rule An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.
3.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–3 Policy, Procedure, and Rule Examples • Policy Accept all customer-returned merchandise. • Procedure Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation. • Rules Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00. No credit purchases are refunded for cash.
4.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–4 Problems and Decisions (cont’d) • Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Problems that will require custom-made solutions. • Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. Decisions that generate unique responses.
5.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–5 Exhibit 6–8 Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions
6.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–6 Decision-Making Conditions • Certainty A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. • Risk A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.
7.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–7 Exhibit 6–9 Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift Expected Expected × Probability = Value of Each Event Revenues Alternative Heavy snowfall $850,000 0.3 = $255,000 Normal snowfall 725,000 0.5 = 362,500 Light snowfall 350,000 0.2 = 70,000 $687,500
8.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–8 Decision-Making Conditions • Uncertainty Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”. Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret.
9.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–9 Exhibit 6–10 Payoff Matrix
10.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–10 Exhibit 6–11 Regret Matrix
11.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–11 Decision-Making Styles • Dimensions of Decision-Making Styles Ways of thinking Rational, orderly, and consistent Intuitive, creative, and unique Tolerance for ambiguity Low tolerance: require consistency and order High tolerance: multiple thoughts simultaneously
12.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–12 Decision-Making Styles (cont’d) • Types of Decision Makers Directive Use minimal information and consider few alternatives. Analytic Make careful decisions in unique situations. Conceptual Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions. Behavioral Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.
13.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–13 Exhibit 6–12 Decision-Making Matrix
14.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–14 Exhibit 6–13 Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases
15.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–15 Decision-Making Biases and Errors • Heuristics Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. • Overconfidence Bias Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s performance. • Immediate Gratification Bias Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.
16.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–16 Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d) • Anchoring Effect Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information. • Selective Perception Bias Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions. • Confirmation Bias Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.
17.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–17 Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d) • Framing Bias Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects. • Availability Bias Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events. • Representation Bias Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist. • Randomness Bias Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.
18.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–18 Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d) • Sunk Costs Errors Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences. • Self-Serving Bias Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures. • Hindsight Bias Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after- the-fact).
19.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–19 Exhibit 6–14 Overview of Managerial Decision Making
20.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–20 Decision Making for Today’s World • Guidelines for making effective decisions: Understand cultural differences. Know when it’s time to call it quits. Use an effective decision-making process. • Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs) Are not tricked by their success. Defer to the experts on the front line. Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution. Embrace complexity. Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.
21.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–21 Characteristics of an Effective Decision- Making Process • It focuses on what is important. • It is logical and consistent. • It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking. • It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma. • It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion. • It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.
22.
© 2007 Prentice
Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 6–22 Terms to Know • decision • decision-making process • problem • decision criteria • rational decision making • bounded rationality • satisficing • escalation of commitment • intuitive decision making • structured problems • programmed decision • procedure • rule • policy • unstructured problems • nonprogrammed decisions • certainty • risk • uncertainty • directive style • analytic style • conceptual style • behavioral style • heuristics • business performance management (BPM) software
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