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DESIGN OF FUTURES | THE FUTURE OF DESIGN
‫עתידים‬ ‫עיצוב‬
‫מופרא‬ ‫בעולם‬
‫תלמי‬ ‫איתי‬Itai Talmi
BORN PARTNERS | FUTURE WORKS
LECTURE SHENKAR DESIGN SCHOOL
MAY 2020
we’re between stories
Illustration: R. Kikuo Johnson
New York: 2100 A.D.?
“Living organisms have the equivalent of one “foot” in the past, the
other in the future, and the whole system hovers, moment by moment, in
the present – always on the move, through time.
The truth is that the future represents as powerful a causal force on
current behavior as the past does, for all living things.
And information, which is often presumed to be a figment of the human
mind or at least unique to the province of human thought and
interaction, is actually an integral feature of life, itself – even at the most
fundamental level: that of system organization.”
Judith Rosen. An extract from the preface to the Anticipatory Systems 2nd Edition: The Nature of Life
(Rosen 2012).
 Alisha Wormsley’s recently banned billboard in Pittsburgh
It’s hard to survive in
the jungle if you were
trained in a zoo
ZEITGEIST
Hikikomori
(*Japanese: ひきこもり or 引きこもり, lit. "pulling inward, being confined", i.e., "acute social withdrawal
MUCH BEFORE COVID 19
7
“Giving is the New Taking,
Sharing is the New Giving.”
THE ANTHROPOCENE
IS IN POST-COVID
TRANSFORMATION.
“We were brainwashed into
fitting in, and then discovered
that the economy wanted
people who stood out instead”
Seth Godin
@nomadznu
MANUFACTURED
NORMALCY
THE
QUANTIFIED SELF
MOVEMENT
DATAISM
WE SHOULD START
PROTECTING OUR OWN IP
The world is at
a Chaos point
a moment where the old systems no
longer work but the new are not
mature enough to take over the helm.
A-synchronic reality
‘CREATIVE DESTRUCTION’
Joseph Schumpeter
"Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy” 1942
Enoughism is a theory according to which there is a
point where consumers possess everything they need,
and by buying more it actually makes their life worse off.
ENOUGHISM
BRANDALISM
"If the rate of change on
the outside exceeds the
rate of change on the
inside, then the end is
near"
Jack Welch
JC PENNY, Kodak. Blockbuster. Sears.  Stories of their rise and fall are well known around the world:
companies who enjoyed a dominate market position and competitive advantage, only to fail in
spectacular fashion.
What did they have in common?  The inability to anticipate foundational shifts in consumer behaviour
in their markets.
Practice anticipation, because
Myopia can finish your story.
THE NEW
SOBRIETY
We are living in an era when social rules and business models
are between the “no more” and the “not yet”.
.‫פראי‬ ‫לעתיד‬ ‫מבויית‬ ‫מעולם‬ ‫הסתגלות‬ ‫בתהליך‬ ‫אנחנו‬
‫הבאים‬ ‫ברוכים‬
‫מופרא‬ ‫לעולם‬
RE-WILDING/FERAL WORLD
‫מופראת/בהתתפראות‬ ‫וחברה‬ ,‫מופרא‬ ‫עולם‬ ‫*המושג‬
‫)ההפך‬ ‫לפראי‬ ‫ממבויית‬ ‫המעבר‬ ‫תהליך‬ Feral society/world :‫מופרא‬ ,‫פרא‬ ‫)*מלשון‬
(‫׳ביות׳‬ ‫מתהליך‬
‫של‬ ‫המעבר‬ ‫לשלב‬ ‫או‬ ,‫והניהול‬ ‫התרבות‬ ,‫הפרדיגמות‬ ,‫התופעות‬ ‫ומכלול‬ ‫לרצף‬ ‫מתייחס‬
,‫ואחידות‬ ‫סדר‬ ,‫היררכיה‬ ,‫לשליטה‬ ‫השואף‬ ‫המתועשת״‬ ‫ה״נורמליות‬ ‫של‬ ‫הישן‬ ‫העולם‬
‫החיים‬ ‫תחומי‬ ‫בכל‬ ‫וכללים״‬ ‫חוקים‬ ‫ל״מערכות‬ ,‫החברה‬ ‫של‬ "‫וביות‬ ‫"להתבייתות‬ ‫האחראי‬
‫שליטה‬ ‫מניסיון‬ ‫המשתחרר‬ ‫לעולם‬ ‫ביותר‬ ‫ומהיר‬ ‫חד‬ ‫במעבר‬ ‫נמצא‬ - ‫האנושית‬ ‫וההתנהגות‬
‫מנייחות‬ ,‫רדיקלים‬ ‫התנהגותיים‬ ‫לשינויים‬ ,‫ושקיפות‬ ‫לביזור‬ ,‫לכאוס‬ ‫מסדר‬ ,‫לאי-שליטה‬ ‫נואל‬
‫הזה‬ ‫הרדיקלי‬ ‫התהליך‬ - ‫תקדים‬ ‫חסר‬ ‫אקספוננציאלי‬ ‫שינויים‬ ‫קצב‬ ‫דרך‬ ,‫תמידית‬ ‫לניידות‬
.‫רגע‬ ‫בכל‬ ‫אפשרי‬ ‫הכל‬ .‫החיים‬ ‫תחומי‬ ‫בכל‬ ,‫המשחק‬ ‫כללי‬ ‫את‬ ‫לחלוטין‬ ‫משבש‬
:‫עיקריות‬ ‫תקופות‬ ‫לשלוש‬ ‫העולם‬ ‫את‬ ‫לחלק‬ ‫ניתן‬
‫המשותפים‬ ‫החיים‬ ‫טרום‬ - ‫הפראית‬ ‫החברה‬
.‫הממוסד‬ ‫החברתי‬ ‫המבנה‬ ‫ויצירת‬ ‫הקהילתיים‬ ‫החיים‬ ‫תחילת‬ - ‫המבוייתת‬ ‫החברה‬
,‫המגבילים‬ ‫ההתמסדות‬ ‫מ״כבלי״‬ ‫המשתחררת‬ ‫החברה‬ .‫כיום‬ ‫העולם‬ - ‫המופראת‬ ‫החברה‬
.‫פעולתן‬ ‫אופן‬ ‫של‬ ‫הרלוונטיות‬ ‫ואת‬ ‫אמינותן‬ ‫את‬ ‫המאבדים‬
‫לעולם‬ ‫הבאים‬ ‫ברוכים‬
‫מופרא‬ ‫חדש‬
COGNITIVE
ESTRANGEMENT
THE BIGGEST MARKET IN THE WORLD
IS THE MARKET OF BELIEF
‫קורים‬ ‫צפויים‬ ‫לא‬ ‫אירועים‬
‫חוקי‬ ‫את‬ ‫ומשנים‬ ‫בפתאומיות‬
.‫המשחק‬
‫משמעויות‬ ‫המייצרים‬ ‫מצבים‬
‫וקשות‬ ‫חדשות‬ ‫והזדמנויות‬
‫לפיענוח‬ ‫יותר‬
.‫וסדר‬ ‫כאוס‬
,‫עצמאי‬ ,‫מחובר‬ ‫הכל‬
,‫בו-זמנית‬ ‫ושיתופי‬
.‫ואפשרויות‬ ‫מידע‬ ‫של‬ ‫מבוך‬
,‫סבירות‬ ‫האפשרויות‬ ‫כל‬
‫האתמול‬ ,‫צפויות‬ ‫לא‬ ‫הנסיבות‬
.‫רלוונטי‬ ‫לא‬
Volatile
‫נפיץ‬
Uncertain
‫ודאי‬ ‫לא‬
Complex
‫מורכב‬
Ambiguous
‫רב-משמעויות‬
‫בעולם‬ ‫חיים‬ ‫אנחנו‬
VUCA ‫ה‬
100
80
0
20001960 1980
40
60
1940 2020
20
2-5 Years
75 Years
Time
Lifetime
Every two weeks a company is replaced on the S&P 500
(Innosight)
‫מדהים‬ ‫בקצב‬ ‫מתקצר‬ ‫חברות‬ ‫חיי‬ ‫אורך‬
OUCH!
PEOPLE ARE FUCKING PISSED!
GAPITALISM
SOCIAL ENTROPY
‫מיאוס‬ ,‫תסכול‬ :‫תחושה‬
‫חסכנות‬ ,‫אלטרנטיביות‬ :‫ריאקציה‬
‫פתיחות‬ ,‫הדדיות‬ ,‫מוסר‬ :‫דרישה‬
PEOPLE
ORGS & BRANDS
‫אקפוננציאלים‬ ‫שינויים‬ ,‫שברירית‬ :‫מציאות‬
‫אמפתיות‬ ,‫סתגלנות‬ ,‫יצירתיות‬ :‫ארגוני‬ ‫הכרח‬
‫גמישות‬ ,‫שיתופיות‬ :‫מבנה‬
COVID 19
‫האמון‬ ‫חוסר‬ ‫את‬ ‫הגביר‬
COMPANY ‫מחברה‬
SOCIETY ‫לחברה‬
‫מניות‬ ‫בעלי‬ ‫)מכלכלת‬
(‫ענין‬ ‫בעלי‬ ‫לכלכלת‬
OUR COLLECTIVE ABILITY TO REALISE
THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON OUR
COLLECTIVE ABILITY TO IMAGINE IT.
IT’S ABOUT GARDENING
FUTURES.
imagination should be nurtured like a garden. 
We are the gardeners of our mind. We need/must nurture and cultivate our mind garden so we could
enjoy the fruits of our imagination. The level of nourishment will define the level of our imagination
AIGLATSON
AIGLATSON IS NOSTALGIA BACKWARDS
THE YEARNING FOR THINGS TO COME.
JIM DATOR.
BE USEFULLY
WRONG.
DON’T AIM TO BE FUTURE CORRECT, AIM TO PROVOKE AND STIMULATE
DIFFERENT USABLE WAYS TO THINK ABOUT FUTURES.
JAMES CASCIO 2016.
Halo Halo
Restaurant dedicated
to Serendipity,
Copenhagen airport
The Imagination
economy is rising.
We cannot achieve what
we cannot imagine.
Ellise Boulding
‫נונקונפורמיסטי‬
EXPERIMENTAL
‫קונפורמיסטי‬
EXPERIENCES
‫השראה‬ ‫וכמקור‬ , ‫החברה‬ ‫של‬ ‫חדשים‬ ‫לעולמות‬ ‫בחשיפה‬ ‫והצורך‬ ‫ההרפתקנות‬ ‫ליצר‬ ‫יותר‬ ‫מתחברים‬ ‫חדשנות‬ ‫וצוות‬ ‫מותגים‬
‫תכופות‬ ‫המוזמנים‬ ,‫בדיוני‬ ‫מדע‬ ‫בסופרי‬ ,‫אלטרנטיבית‬ ‫בתרבות‬ ,‫באמנות/ובאמנים‬ ‫כמובן‬ ‫הבולטת‬ ‫ה׳מופראת׳‬ ‫לחשיבה‬ ‫אותנטי‬
,‫אלטרנטיבים‬ ‫חיים‬ ‫לניהול‬ ‫אקספרימנטלית‬ ‫כזירה‬ ‫מן׳‬ ‫׳ברנינג‬ ‫כגון‬ ‫לפסטיבלים‬ ,‫חדשנות‬ ‫לתהליכי‬ ‫כיום‬
EVERYONE IS A
DESIGNER
Whether You Like it or Not
Big consultancies like Accenture, BCG and McKinsey have
bought up a string of small innovation agencies in an attempt
to remain relevant.
SIFTED, Tuesday 5 November 2019
Rush to acquire innovation, design, futures agencies
 REACTIONARY
 CREATIONARY
TO
BE FUTURE-ORIENTED
THE 8 TYPES OF IMAGINATION
Effectuative imagination combines information
together to synergize new concepts and ideas
Intellectual (or constructive) imagination is utilized when
considering and developing hypotheses from different pieces of
information or pondering over various issues of meaning say in
the areas of philosophy, management, or politics, etc. 
Imaginative fantasy creates and develops
stories, pictures, poems, stage-plays, and the
building of the esoteric, etc
Empathy is a capacity we have to connect to
others and feel what they are feeling. 
Strategic imagination vision of ‘what could be’, the ability to
recognize and evaluate opportunities by turning them into
mental scenarios, seeing the benefits, identifying the types and
quantities of resources required for taking particular actions, and
the ability to weigh up all the issues in a strategic manner
Emotional imagination is concerned with
manifesting emotional dispositions and extending
them into emotional scenarios.
Dreams are an unconscious form of imagination made up
of images, ideas, emotions, and sensations that occur
during certain stages of sleep
Memory reconstruction is the process of
retrieving our memory of people, objects, and
events
“Design is moving an existing condition to
a preferred one”
Milton Glaser
“Futures Design is moving from an existing
condition by imagining the preferred one”
BORN PARTNERS
How we design is as important,
if not more, than what we design.
To adapt to the new re-wilding world, The whole design profession must
incorporate all creation forms.
MOONSHOTS
.H2H ‫רק‬ ‫יש‬ ,B2C ‫או‬ B2B ‫אין‬
.‫העיקר‬ ‫לא‬ ,‫תומך‬ ‫מרכיב‬ ‫היא‬ ‫הטכנולוגיה‬
,Human-made 100% ‫הם‬ ‫ארגונים‬ ‫אם‬
.Human-led 100% ‫הם‬ ‫מותגים‬
OUR FIRST IMPERATIVE:
HUMAN-CENTRED POINT
OF VIEW
WHAT
WHY
WHAT
HOW
WHO
WHY
HOW
YOUR IMPERATIVE: SHIFT TO A HUMAN-CENTRED POINT OF VIEW
These are the senses you thought of …
And we associate ideas with each sense …
TOUCH SIGHT HEARINGTASTESMELL
color
odor sweet pitchpressure
pain
texture sour
salty bitter
umami timbre
loudness
amplitude intensity
envelopespectrum
frequency
motion
space
light
depthoffield
gestalt memory
flavor breath
perspiration
Which human senses do we usually design for?
Artery-vein blood glucose difference (hunger?)
Light touch
Cold
Light
2000+ receptor types
Cutaneous
Blood oxygen content
TASTE VISION
HEARING
SMELL
TEMPERATURE
MECHANORECPTION
PAIN
INTEROCEPTORS
Heat
Muscle stretch - Golgi tendon organs
TOUCH
PressureGreen
BlueRed
Colour
Full stomach
Lung inflation
Umami
Bitter
Sour
Salt
Sweet
Visceral
Somatic
Balance
Rotational acceleration Kinaesthesis
Linear acceleration
Proprioception - joint position
Muscle stretch - muscle spindles
Arterial blood pressure
Central venous blood pressure
Bladder stretch
Blood pressure Cerebrospinal fluid pH
Head blood temperature
Plasma osmotic pressure (thirst?)
Our human senses are much more complex.
Humans have between 9 and 33 senses.
SOCIETYSHAREHOLDERS EMPLOYEES CUSTOMERS NATURE UNIVERSE
SPECTRUM OF CONTEXTS
Human-centered design is
Society-centered design
Eye Kit, a Body Mutation project
Beirut design week
Speculative living design
Speculative Urban design
possible way of the development of our cities in the time of constant
information flow, Civil Drones, robots in our day-to- day
The Urban Village
project
DNA Weddings – guests give the gift of their own DNA to improve the
happy couple's reproductive prospects in an increasingly competitive world
Beirut design week
Speculative living design
WORLD-BUILDING
WORLD-BUILDING
KNOWN-KNOWNS
UNKNOWN-UNKNOWNS
KNOWNS-UNKNOWNS
pink flamingoes
Black swans
Grey swans
KNOWN
KNOWNS
KNOWN
UNKNOWNS
UNKNOWN
UNKNOWNS
Required
approach
Relevant mindet
ACTION PLANS/
KPI’S & EXECUTIONS
EXPERIMENTAL
FUTURES
EXPERIENCES &
PROVOCATIONS
REALISTIC
HUMAN-CENTERED
RESEARCHING &
SOLVING
CHECKLIST
THINKING
FORESIGHT
THINKING
DESIGN
THINKING
3 SITUATIONAL CONTEXTS
POSSIBLE
FUTURES
POTENTIAL
FUTURES
PROBABLE
FUTURES
ORGANIZATION
TIME
“might” happen (future knowledge)
“could” happen (current knowledge)
“likely to” happen (current trends)
“Desired” future (chosen path)PREFERABLE
FUTURE
-—
POTENTIALITY FIELD —-
WILD CARDS “Extreme” events - major impact
FUTURES SPECTRUM
FUTURES TYPES
NOW
STRATEGIC
SCENARIOS
+
+
+
+
+
BACKCASTING
FUTURES SCANNING
-— 1-5 years —-
-—
HORIZON 1 —-
-—
HORIZON 2 —-
-—
HORIZON 1 —-
-—
HORIZON 3 —-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Realizable’
futures
+
IMPACTS
DRIVERS
TRAJECTORIES
In 2017, PWC Pricewaterhousecooper published Using science fiction to explore business innovation, a guide
for corporations that wanted to work with sf writers to think about the future of their businesses
SCIENCE FICTION THINKING
We use Science Fiction to perceive the world through the lens of what is possible instead of what currently exists.
It allows us to mine our wildest imaginings of the future to analyze the present and consult with businesses to create and
innovate.
Drawing upon our vast experience conceptualizing and developing future tech for the biggest sci fi blockbusters of the
last decade, we are able to inspire and guide the most cutting edge tech leaders across the globe.
Using Science Fiction Prototyping, we create futuristic, forward looking experiences that look and feel as authentic as
possible in order to open the minds of corporate leadership and stakeholders to the wondrous potential of what their
technology is truly capable of.
We don’t just tell stories, we build WORLDS.
Science Fiction and Foresight: a close relationship
A number of SF writers worked or work as foresight consultants for companies and governmental agencies.
Robert Heinlein
Arthur C. Clarke
Bruce Sterling
Neal Stephenson
David Brin
Isaac Asimov
Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP)
Developed by Brian David Johnson at INTEL, as a
method for scientists and engineers to support
product innovation.
science Fiction in foresight practice
We are wasting human potential.
72%
NOT ENGAGED
AT WORK
~25%
PRODUCTIVITY
LOST
COGNITIVE
SURPLUS
‫הקוגניטיבי‬ ‫העודף‬
KAIROSCHRONOS Balance
TIME
Inner timeChronological time
To
Flow time
From
Bi-polar time
Design Executive
Officer
‫בעולם‬ ”‫ה”לקוח‬ ‫חוויית‬
‫תתמקד‬ ‫מופרא‬
.‫׳קונטקסט׳‬‫ב‬
POINT OF NEED
WANDERLUST
We outsource everything.
We don't own anything.
GENERATION RENT
From
WORKPLACES
To
PLACES TO WORK
CAPITAL ONE
(this is a bank..)
‫מקום‬ ‫כל‬ ‫בעתיד‬
‫קפה‬ ‫בית‬ ‫יהיה‬
‫עבודה‬ ‫וחלל‬
“The 20th century was about cities building airports.
The 21st century will be about airports building cities.”
John D. Kasarda, 2011
more Experiences
over Things
GENERATION RENT
The subscription economy 
Vienna
JOE&JOE+IKEA
Futures thinking is about
suspension of disbelief
DESIGN IS ALL ABOUT
RESPONSIBILITY
“We design our world, while our world
acts back on us and designs us”
Anne-Marie Willis
Beware the risk falling into of ‘Post-Traumatic Innovation’:
limiting our imagination sources to solving the problems of the
past, instead of preventing the problems of the future
Dr. Jane McGonigal
Director of Game Research and Development at the Institute for the Future 
Speculative Design Fiction/futures design
.‫ודוגמטי‬ ‫מדי‬ ‫״מבוית״‬ ‫עולם‬ , SAMENESS ‫של‬ ‫בעולם‬ ‫שנתקע‬ ‫דמיון‬ ‫להעשיר/לשפר‬ .1
‫״מופרא״‬ ‫לעתיד‬ ‫הצופות‬ ‫וקריאטיביות‬ ‫אסטרטגיות‬ ‫שיחות‬ ‫לייצר‬ .2
‫שצפינו‬ ‫לעתיד‬ ‫הקיים‬ ‫החזון‬ ‫של‬ ‫והרלוונטיות‬ ‫״השפיות״‬ ‫את‬ ‫לבדוק‬ .3
‫עלינו‬ ‫המועדף‬ ‫העתיד‬ ‫את‬ ‫לייצר‬ ‫שיכולים‬ - ‫להיום‬ ‫עדיפויות‬ ‫סדרי‬ ‫לקבוע‬ .4
MOVE TO
A “PITSTOP” MODE
.‫סתגלנות‬ :‫אחת‬ ‫אסטרטגית‬ ‫אסטרטגיה‬ ‫רק‬ ‫יש‬
‫החוויה‬ ‫וביצירת‬ ‫ובמותג‬ ,‫בלקוח‬ ‫העוסק‬ ‫כל‬ ,‫כזה‬ ‫מופרא‬ ‫שבעולם‬ ‫להפנים‬ ‫צריכים‬ ‫ואנחנו‬ .‫לקרות‬ ‫יכול‬ ‫הכל‬ .‫אלטרנטיביים‬ ‫עתידים‬ ‫רק‬ .‫עתיד‬ ‫אין‬
‫לברור‬ ,‫לאלתר‬ ,‫מקסימלי‬ ‫חושים‬ ‫חידוד‬ ,‫רגישות-על‬ ‫לפתח‬ ‫מחויבים‬ ‫אנחנו‬ ,‫ומופרא‬ ‫חדש‬ ‫בעולם‬ .‫חדש‬ ‫לעולם‬ ‫חלוצית‬ ‫למשלחת‬ ‫משול‬ ,‫הכוללת‬
.‫הזמן‬ ‫כל‬ ‫מפוכח‬ ‫ולהיות‬ ,‫במהירות-שיא‬ ‫תנועה‬ ‫כדי‬ ‫תוך‬ ‫וסטייה‬ ‫אפשרות‬ ‫כל‬ ‫ולנצל‬
STAY MAD
TAKE
ACTION REMAIN CALM
FLOW FROM
OH TO AWE
‫תלמי‬ ‫איתי‬
.‫ויזם‬ ,‫מרצה‬ ,‫יועץ‬ ,‫ויזמים‬ ‫לארגונים‬ ‫אנושיים‬ ‫עתידים‬ ‫של‬ ‫ופיתוח‬ ‫עיצוב‬ ‫במחקר‬ ‫עוסק‬
BORN PARTNERS ‫מייסד‬
‫מוטי-עתיד‬ ‫פרויקטים‬ ‫והוביל‬ ,‫ופיתוח‬ ‫מחקר‬ ,‫יעוץ‬ ,‫ניהול‬ ‫בתפקידי‬ ‫העולם‬ ‫ברחבי‬ ‫שנה‬ 30‫ל‬ ‫מעל‬
‫וערים‬ ‫ממשלות‬ ,‫אקדמיים‬ ‫מוסדות‬ ,‫חברתיים‬ ‫ארגונים‬ ,‫בעולם‬ ‫מובילות‬ ‫בחברות‬
Vodafone, markets.com, Orange, Carnival Cruise Lines, GAP, VIM, WEF,
.‫ועוד‬ ,‫אמסטרדם‬ ‫עיריית‬ ,Holmes Place, Keystone, Metro, THNK
‫ומחקר‬ ‫אסטרטגי‬ ‫פיתוח‬ ,‫חדשנות‬ ,‫עיצוב‬ ‫ניהול‬ ,(‫)פנומנולוגיה‬ ‫התופעות׳‬ ‫׳חקר‬ ‫פילוסופיה‬ :‫רקע‬
‫מותגים‬ ‫ופיתוח‬ ‫לקוח‬ ‫חוויית‬ ‫פיתוח‬ ,‫הומניים‬ ‫אלטרנטיבים‬ ‫עתידים‬
Founding ,‫יצירתית‬ ‫ויזמות‬ ‫למנהיגות‬ ‫הבינלאומי‬ ‫הספר‬ ‫בית‬ ‫של‬ ‫ושגריר‬ ‫בוגר-מייסד‬
participant at THNK School of creative leadership
BORNPARTNERS.CO
DREAMABLE REALITIES
TO REALISABLE DREAMS
Always seek
goosebumps
!‫רבה‬ ‫תודה‬ .‫זהו‬
By all means break the rules.
Break them beautifully, deliberately & well.
Robert Bringhurst
‫תלמי‬ ‫איתי‬
972 547421821
itai@bornpartners.co

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A "Gonzo" expedition to Futures thinking & design in a re-wilding world. Lecture slides 2020

  • 1. DESIGN OF FUTURES | THE FUTURE OF DESIGN ‫עתידים‬ ‫עיצוב‬ ‫מופרא‬ ‫בעולם‬ ‫תלמי‬ ‫איתי‬Itai Talmi BORN PARTNERS | FUTURE WORKS LECTURE SHENKAR DESIGN SCHOOL MAY 2020
  • 3. New York: 2100 A.D.? “Living organisms have the equivalent of one “foot” in the past, the other in the future, and the whole system hovers, moment by moment, in the present – always on the move, through time. The truth is that the future represents as powerful a causal force on current behavior as the past does, for all living things. And information, which is often presumed to be a figment of the human mind or at least unique to the province of human thought and interaction, is actually an integral feature of life, itself – even at the most fundamental level: that of system organization.” Judith Rosen. An extract from the preface to the Anticipatory Systems 2nd Edition: The Nature of Life (Rosen 2012).
  • 4.  Alisha Wormsley’s recently banned billboard in Pittsburgh
  • 5. It’s hard to survive in the jungle if you were trained in a zoo ZEITGEIST
  • 6. Hikikomori (*Japanese: ひきこもり or 引きこもり, lit. "pulling inward, being confined", i.e., "acute social withdrawal MUCH BEFORE COVID 19
  • 7. 7 “Giving is the New Taking, Sharing is the New Giving.”
  • 8. THE ANTHROPOCENE IS IN POST-COVID TRANSFORMATION.
  • 9. “We were brainwashed into fitting in, and then discovered that the economy wanted people who stood out instead” Seth Godin @nomadznu
  • 11. THE QUANTIFIED SELF MOVEMENT DATAISM WE SHOULD START PROTECTING OUR OWN IP
  • 12. The world is at a Chaos point a moment where the old systems no longer work but the new are not mature enough to take over the helm. A-synchronic reality
  • 14. Enoughism is a theory according to which there is a point where consumers possess everything they need, and by buying more it actually makes their life worse off. ENOUGHISM
  • 16. "If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, then the end is near" Jack Welch
  • 17. JC PENNY, Kodak. Blockbuster. Sears.  Stories of their rise and fall are well known around the world: companies who enjoyed a dominate market position and competitive advantage, only to fail in spectacular fashion. What did they have in common?  The inability to anticipate foundational shifts in consumer behaviour in their markets. Practice anticipation, because Myopia can finish your story.
  • 18. THE NEW SOBRIETY We are living in an era when social rules and business models are between the “no more” and the “not yet”.
  • 19. .‫פראי‬ ‫לעתיד‬ ‫מבויית‬ ‫מעולם‬ ‫הסתגלות‬ ‫בתהליך‬ ‫אנחנו‬ ‫הבאים‬ ‫ברוכים‬ ‫מופרא‬ ‫לעולם‬
  • 20. RE-WILDING/FERAL WORLD ‫מופראת/בהתתפראות‬ ‫וחברה‬ ,‫מופרא‬ ‫עולם‬ ‫*המושג‬ ‫)ההפך‬ ‫לפראי‬ ‫ממבויית‬ ‫המעבר‬ ‫תהליך‬ Feral society/world :‫מופרא‬ ,‫פרא‬ ‫)*מלשון‬ (‫׳ביות׳‬ ‫מתהליך‬ ‫של‬ ‫המעבר‬ ‫לשלב‬ ‫או‬ ,‫והניהול‬ ‫התרבות‬ ,‫הפרדיגמות‬ ,‫התופעות‬ ‫ומכלול‬ ‫לרצף‬ ‫מתייחס‬ ,‫ואחידות‬ ‫סדר‬ ,‫היררכיה‬ ,‫לשליטה‬ ‫השואף‬ ‫המתועשת״‬ ‫ה״נורמליות‬ ‫של‬ ‫הישן‬ ‫העולם‬ ‫החיים‬ ‫תחומי‬ ‫בכל‬ ‫וכללים״‬ ‫חוקים‬ ‫ל״מערכות‬ ,‫החברה‬ ‫של‬ "‫וביות‬ ‫"להתבייתות‬ ‫האחראי‬ ‫שליטה‬ ‫מניסיון‬ ‫המשתחרר‬ ‫לעולם‬ ‫ביותר‬ ‫ומהיר‬ ‫חד‬ ‫במעבר‬ ‫נמצא‬ - ‫האנושית‬ ‫וההתנהגות‬ ‫מנייחות‬ ,‫רדיקלים‬ ‫התנהגותיים‬ ‫לשינויים‬ ,‫ושקיפות‬ ‫לביזור‬ ,‫לכאוס‬ ‫מסדר‬ ,‫לאי-שליטה‬ ‫נואל‬ ‫הזה‬ ‫הרדיקלי‬ ‫התהליך‬ - ‫תקדים‬ ‫חסר‬ ‫אקספוננציאלי‬ ‫שינויים‬ ‫קצב‬ ‫דרך‬ ,‫תמידית‬ ‫לניידות‬ .‫רגע‬ ‫בכל‬ ‫אפשרי‬ ‫הכל‬ .‫החיים‬ ‫תחומי‬ ‫בכל‬ ,‫המשחק‬ ‫כללי‬ ‫את‬ ‫לחלוטין‬ ‫משבש‬ :‫עיקריות‬ ‫תקופות‬ ‫לשלוש‬ ‫העולם‬ ‫את‬ ‫לחלק‬ ‫ניתן‬ ‫המשותפים‬ ‫החיים‬ ‫טרום‬ - ‫הפראית‬ ‫החברה‬ .‫הממוסד‬ ‫החברתי‬ ‫המבנה‬ ‫ויצירת‬ ‫הקהילתיים‬ ‫החיים‬ ‫תחילת‬ - ‫המבוייתת‬ ‫החברה‬ ,‫המגבילים‬ ‫ההתמסדות‬ ‫מ״כבלי״‬ ‫המשתחררת‬ ‫החברה‬ .‫כיום‬ ‫העולם‬ - ‫המופראת‬ ‫החברה‬ .‫פעולתן‬ ‫אופן‬ ‫של‬ ‫הרלוונטיות‬ ‫ואת‬ ‫אמינותן‬ ‫את‬ ‫המאבדים‬ ‫לעולם‬ ‫הבאים‬ ‫ברוכים‬ ‫מופרא‬ ‫חדש‬
  • 21.
  • 23.
  • 24. THE BIGGEST MARKET IN THE WORLD IS THE MARKET OF BELIEF
  • 25. ‫קורים‬ ‫צפויים‬ ‫לא‬ ‫אירועים‬ ‫חוקי‬ ‫את‬ ‫ומשנים‬ ‫בפתאומיות‬ .‫המשחק‬ ‫משמעויות‬ ‫המייצרים‬ ‫מצבים‬ ‫וקשות‬ ‫חדשות‬ ‫והזדמנויות‬ ‫לפיענוח‬ ‫יותר‬ .‫וסדר‬ ‫כאוס‬ ,‫עצמאי‬ ,‫מחובר‬ ‫הכל‬ ,‫בו-זמנית‬ ‫ושיתופי‬ .‫ואפשרויות‬ ‫מידע‬ ‫של‬ ‫מבוך‬ ,‫סבירות‬ ‫האפשרויות‬ ‫כל‬ ‫האתמול‬ ,‫צפויות‬ ‫לא‬ ‫הנסיבות‬ .‫רלוונטי‬ ‫לא‬ Volatile ‫נפיץ‬ Uncertain ‫ודאי‬ ‫לא‬ Complex ‫מורכב‬ Ambiguous ‫רב-משמעויות‬ ‫בעולם‬ ‫חיים‬ ‫אנחנו‬ VUCA ‫ה‬
  • 26. 100 80 0 20001960 1980 40 60 1940 2020 20 2-5 Years 75 Years Time Lifetime Every two weeks a company is replaced on the S&P 500 (Innosight) ‫מדהים‬ ‫בקצב‬ ‫מתקצר‬ ‫חברות‬ ‫חיי‬ ‫אורך‬
  • 27. OUCH! PEOPLE ARE FUCKING PISSED! GAPITALISM
  • 29. ‫מיאוס‬ ,‫תסכול‬ :‫תחושה‬ ‫חסכנות‬ ,‫אלטרנטיביות‬ :‫ריאקציה‬ ‫פתיחות‬ ,‫הדדיות‬ ,‫מוסר‬ :‫דרישה‬ PEOPLE ORGS & BRANDS ‫אקפוננציאלים‬ ‫שינויים‬ ,‫שברירית‬ :‫מציאות‬ ‫אמפתיות‬ ,‫סתגלנות‬ ,‫יצירתיות‬ :‫ארגוני‬ ‫הכרח‬ ‫גמישות‬ ,‫שיתופיות‬ :‫מבנה‬ COVID 19 ‫האמון‬ ‫חוסר‬ ‫את‬ ‫הגביר‬
  • 30. COMPANY ‫מחברה‬ SOCIETY ‫לחברה‬ ‫מניות‬ ‫בעלי‬ ‫)מכלכלת‬ (‫ענין‬ ‫בעלי‬ ‫לכלכלת‬
  • 31. OUR COLLECTIVE ABILITY TO REALISE THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON OUR COLLECTIVE ABILITY TO IMAGINE IT.
  • 32. IT’S ABOUT GARDENING FUTURES. imagination should be nurtured like a garden.  We are the gardeners of our mind. We need/must nurture and cultivate our mind garden so we could enjoy the fruits of our imagination. The level of nourishment will define the level of our imagination
  • 33. AIGLATSON AIGLATSON IS NOSTALGIA BACKWARDS THE YEARNING FOR THINGS TO COME. JIM DATOR.
  • 34. BE USEFULLY WRONG. DON’T AIM TO BE FUTURE CORRECT, AIM TO PROVOKE AND STIMULATE DIFFERENT USABLE WAYS TO THINK ABOUT FUTURES. JAMES CASCIO 2016.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. Halo Halo Restaurant dedicated to Serendipity, Copenhagen airport
  • 40. We cannot achieve what we cannot imagine. Ellise Boulding
  • 41. ‫נונקונפורמיסטי‬ EXPERIMENTAL ‫קונפורמיסטי‬ EXPERIENCES ‫השראה‬ ‫וכמקור‬ , ‫החברה‬ ‫של‬ ‫חדשים‬ ‫לעולמות‬ ‫בחשיפה‬ ‫והצורך‬ ‫ההרפתקנות‬ ‫ליצר‬ ‫יותר‬ ‫מתחברים‬ ‫חדשנות‬ ‫וצוות‬ ‫מותגים‬ ‫תכופות‬ ‫המוזמנים‬ ,‫בדיוני‬ ‫מדע‬ ‫בסופרי‬ ,‫אלטרנטיבית‬ ‫בתרבות‬ ,‫באמנות/ובאמנים‬ ‫כמובן‬ ‫הבולטת‬ ‫ה׳מופראת׳‬ ‫לחשיבה‬ ‫אותנטי‬ ,‫אלטרנטיבים‬ ‫חיים‬ ‫לניהול‬ ‫אקספרימנטלית‬ ‫כזירה‬ ‫מן׳‬ ‫׳ברנינג‬ ‫כגון‬ ‫לפסטיבלים‬ ,‫חדשנות‬ ‫לתהליכי‬ ‫כיום‬
  • 42. EVERYONE IS A DESIGNER Whether You Like it or Not
  • 43.
  • 44. Big consultancies like Accenture, BCG and McKinsey have bought up a string of small innovation agencies in an attempt to remain relevant. SIFTED, Tuesday 5 November 2019 Rush to acquire innovation, design, futures agencies
  • 46. THE 8 TYPES OF IMAGINATION Effectuative imagination combines information together to synergize new concepts and ideas Intellectual (or constructive) imagination is utilized when considering and developing hypotheses from different pieces of information or pondering over various issues of meaning say in the areas of philosophy, management, or politics, etc.  Imaginative fantasy creates and develops stories, pictures, poems, stage-plays, and the building of the esoteric, etc Empathy is a capacity we have to connect to others and feel what they are feeling.  Strategic imagination vision of ‘what could be’, the ability to recognize and evaluate opportunities by turning them into mental scenarios, seeing the benefits, identifying the types and quantities of resources required for taking particular actions, and the ability to weigh up all the issues in a strategic manner Emotional imagination is concerned with manifesting emotional dispositions and extending them into emotional scenarios. Dreams are an unconscious form of imagination made up of images, ideas, emotions, and sensations that occur during certain stages of sleep Memory reconstruction is the process of retrieving our memory of people, objects, and events
  • 47. “Design is moving an existing condition to a preferred one” Milton Glaser “Futures Design is moving from an existing condition by imagining the preferred one” BORN PARTNERS
  • 48. How we design is as important, if not more, than what we design. To adapt to the new re-wilding world, The whole design profession must incorporate all creation forms.
  • 49.
  • 51.
  • 52. .H2H ‫רק‬ ‫יש‬ ,B2C ‫או‬ B2B ‫אין‬ .‫העיקר‬ ‫לא‬ ,‫תומך‬ ‫מרכיב‬ ‫היא‬ ‫הטכנולוגיה‬ ,Human-made 100% ‫הם‬ ‫ארגונים‬ ‫אם‬ .Human-led 100% ‫הם‬ ‫מותגים‬
  • 54. WHAT WHY WHAT HOW WHO WHY HOW YOUR IMPERATIVE: SHIFT TO A HUMAN-CENTRED POINT OF VIEW
  • 55. These are the senses you thought of …
  • 56. And we associate ideas with each sense … TOUCH SIGHT HEARINGTASTESMELL color odor sweet pitchpressure pain texture sour salty bitter umami timbre loudness amplitude intensity envelopespectrum frequency motion space light depthoffield gestalt memory flavor breath perspiration
  • 57. Which human senses do we usually design for? Artery-vein blood glucose difference (hunger?) Light touch Cold Light 2000+ receptor types Cutaneous Blood oxygen content TASTE VISION HEARING SMELL TEMPERATURE MECHANORECPTION PAIN INTEROCEPTORS Heat Muscle stretch - Golgi tendon organs TOUCH PressureGreen BlueRed Colour Full stomach Lung inflation Umami Bitter Sour Salt Sweet Visceral Somatic Balance Rotational acceleration Kinaesthesis Linear acceleration Proprioception - joint position Muscle stretch - muscle spindles Arterial blood pressure Central venous blood pressure Bladder stretch Blood pressure Cerebrospinal fluid pH Head blood temperature Plasma osmotic pressure (thirst?) Our human senses are much more complex. Humans have between 9 and 33 senses.
  • 58. SOCIETYSHAREHOLDERS EMPLOYEES CUSTOMERS NATURE UNIVERSE SPECTRUM OF CONTEXTS Human-centered design is Society-centered design
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61. Eye Kit, a Body Mutation project Beirut design week Speculative living design
  • 62. Speculative Urban design possible way of the development of our cities in the time of constant information flow, Civil Drones, robots in our day-to- day
  • 64. DNA Weddings – guests give the gift of their own DNA to improve the happy couple's reproductive prospects in an increasingly competitive world Beirut design week Speculative living design
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 70. KNOWN KNOWNS KNOWN UNKNOWNS UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS Required approach Relevant mindet ACTION PLANS/ KPI’S & EXECUTIONS EXPERIMENTAL FUTURES EXPERIENCES & PROVOCATIONS REALISTIC HUMAN-CENTERED RESEARCHING & SOLVING CHECKLIST THINKING FORESIGHT THINKING DESIGN THINKING 3 SITUATIONAL CONTEXTS
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73. POSSIBLE FUTURES POTENTIAL FUTURES PROBABLE FUTURES ORGANIZATION TIME “might” happen (future knowledge) “could” happen (current knowledge) “likely to” happen (current trends) “Desired” future (chosen path)PREFERABLE FUTURE -— POTENTIALITY FIELD —- WILD CARDS “Extreme” events - major impact FUTURES SPECTRUM FUTURES TYPES NOW STRATEGIC SCENARIOS + + + + + BACKCASTING FUTURES SCANNING -— 1-5 years —- -— HORIZON 1 —- -— HORIZON 2 —- -— HORIZON 1 —- -— HORIZON 3 —- + + + + + + + + + Realizable’ futures + IMPACTS DRIVERS TRAJECTORIES
  • 74.
  • 75. In 2017, PWC Pricewaterhousecooper published Using science fiction to explore business innovation, a guide for corporations that wanted to work with sf writers to think about the future of their businesses
  • 76. SCIENCE FICTION THINKING We use Science Fiction to perceive the world through the lens of what is possible instead of what currently exists. It allows us to mine our wildest imaginings of the future to analyze the present and consult with businesses to create and innovate. Drawing upon our vast experience conceptualizing and developing future tech for the biggest sci fi blockbusters of the last decade, we are able to inspire and guide the most cutting edge tech leaders across the globe. Using Science Fiction Prototyping, we create futuristic, forward looking experiences that look and feel as authentic as possible in order to open the minds of corporate leadership and stakeholders to the wondrous potential of what their technology is truly capable of. We don’t just tell stories, we build WORLDS.
  • 77.
  • 78. Science Fiction and Foresight: a close relationship A number of SF writers worked or work as foresight consultants for companies and governmental agencies. Robert Heinlein Arthur C. Clarke Bruce Sterling Neal Stephenson David Brin Isaac Asimov
  • 79. Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) Developed by Brian David Johnson at INTEL, as a method for scientists and engineers to support product innovation. science Fiction in foresight practice
  • 80. We are wasting human potential. 72% NOT ENGAGED AT WORK ~25% PRODUCTIVITY LOST
  • 84. Design Executive Officer ‫בעולם‬ ”‫ה”לקוח‬ ‫חוויית‬ ‫תתמקד‬ ‫מופרא‬ .‫׳קונטקסט׳‬‫ב‬ POINT OF NEED
  • 86. We outsource everything. We don't own anything. GENERATION RENT
  • 88. CAPITAL ONE (this is a bank..) ‫מקום‬ ‫כל‬ ‫בעתיד‬ ‫קפה‬ ‫בית‬ ‫יהיה‬ ‫עבודה‬ ‫וחלל‬
  • 89. “The 20th century was about cities building airports. The 21st century will be about airports building cities.” John D. Kasarda, 2011
  • 90. more Experiences over Things GENERATION RENT The subscription economy  Vienna JOE&JOE+IKEA
  • 91. Futures thinking is about suspension of disbelief
  • 92. DESIGN IS ALL ABOUT RESPONSIBILITY “We design our world, while our world acts back on us and designs us” Anne-Marie Willis
  • 93. Beware the risk falling into of ‘Post-Traumatic Innovation’: limiting our imagination sources to solving the problems of the past, instead of preventing the problems of the future Dr. Jane McGonigal Director of Game Research and Development at the Institute for the Future 
  • 94. Speculative Design Fiction/futures design .‫ודוגמטי‬ ‫מדי‬ ‫״מבוית״‬ ‫עולם‬ , SAMENESS ‫של‬ ‫בעולם‬ ‫שנתקע‬ ‫דמיון‬ ‫להעשיר/לשפר‬ .1 ‫״מופרא״‬ ‫לעתיד‬ ‫הצופות‬ ‫וקריאטיביות‬ ‫אסטרטגיות‬ ‫שיחות‬ ‫לייצר‬ .2 ‫שצפינו‬ ‫לעתיד‬ ‫הקיים‬ ‫החזון‬ ‫של‬ ‫והרלוונטיות‬ ‫״השפיות״‬ ‫את‬ ‫לבדוק‬ .3 ‫עלינו‬ ‫המועדף‬ ‫העתיד‬ ‫את‬ ‫לייצר‬ ‫שיכולים‬ - ‫להיום‬ ‫עדיפויות‬ ‫סדרי‬ ‫לקבוע‬ .4
  • 95. MOVE TO A “PITSTOP” MODE .‫סתגלנות‬ :‫אחת‬ ‫אסטרטגית‬ ‫אסטרטגיה‬ ‫רק‬ ‫יש‬ ‫החוויה‬ ‫וביצירת‬ ‫ובמותג‬ ,‫בלקוח‬ ‫העוסק‬ ‫כל‬ ,‫כזה‬ ‫מופרא‬ ‫שבעולם‬ ‫להפנים‬ ‫צריכים‬ ‫ואנחנו‬ .‫לקרות‬ ‫יכול‬ ‫הכל‬ .‫אלטרנטיביים‬ ‫עתידים‬ ‫רק‬ .‫עתיד‬ ‫אין‬ ‫לברור‬ ,‫לאלתר‬ ,‫מקסימלי‬ ‫חושים‬ ‫חידוד‬ ,‫רגישות-על‬ ‫לפתח‬ ‫מחויבים‬ ‫אנחנו‬ ,‫ומופרא‬ ‫חדש‬ ‫בעולם‬ .‫חדש‬ ‫לעולם‬ ‫חלוצית‬ ‫למשלחת‬ ‫משול‬ ,‫הכוללת‬ .‫הזמן‬ ‫כל‬ ‫מפוכח‬ ‫ולהיות‬ ,‫במהירות-שיא‬ ‫תנועה‬ ‫כדי‬ ‫תוך‬ ‫וסטייה‬ ‫אפשרות‬ ‫כל‬ ‫ולנצל‬
  • 96.
  • 99. ‫תלמי‬ ‫איתי‬ .‫ויזם‬ ,‫מרצה‬ ,‫יועץ‬ ,‫ויזמים‬ ‫לארגונים‬ ‫אנושיים‬ ‫עתידים‬ ‫של‬ ‫ופיתוח‬ ‫עיצוב‬ ‫במחקר‬ ‫עוסק‬ BORN PARTNERS ‫מייסד‬ ‫מוטי-עתיד‬ ‫פרויקטים‬ ‫והוביל‬ ,‫ופיתוח‬ ‫מחקר‬ ,‫יעוץ‬ ,‫ניהול‬ ‫בתפקידי‬ ‫העולם‬ ‫ברחבי‬ ‫שנה‬ 30‫ל‬ ‫מעל‬ ‫וערים‬ ‫ממשלות‬ ,‫אקדמיים‬ ‫מוסדות‬ ,‫חברתיים‬ ‫ארגונים‬ ,‫בעולם‬ ‫מובילות‬ ‫בחברות‬ Vodafone, markets.com, Orange, Carnival Cruise Lines, GAP, VIM, WEF, .‫ועוד‬ ,‫אמסטרדם‬ ‫עיריית‬ ,Holmes Place, Keystone, Metro, THNK ‫ומחקר‬ ‫אסטרטגי‬ ‫פיתוח‬ ,‫חדשנות‬ ,‫עיצוב‬ ‫ניהול‬ ,(‫)פנומנולוגיה‬ ‫התופעות׳‬ ‫׳חקר‬ ‫פילוסופיה‬ :‫רקע‬ ‫מותגים‬ ‫ופיתוח‬ ‫לקוח‬ ‫חוויית‬ ‫פיתוח‬ ,‫הומניים‬ ‫אלטרנטיבים‬ ‫עתידים‬ Founding ,‫יצירתית‬ ‫ויזמות‬ ‫למנהיגות‬ ‫הבינלאומי‬ ‫הספר‬ ‫בית‬ ‫של‬ ‫ושגריר‬ ‫בוגר-מייסד‬ participant at THNK School of creative leadership BORNPARTNERS.CO DREAMABLE REALITIES TO REALISABLE DREAMS
  • 101. !‫רבה‬ ‫תודה‬ .‫זהו‬ By all means break the rules. Break them beautifully, deliberately & well. Robert Bringhurst ‫תלמי‬ ‫איתי‬ 972 547421821 itai@bornpartners.co