The U.S. labor market added 178,000 net new jobs in November, consistent with monthly additions during the second half of 2016 but below the year-to-date and 2015 averages.
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
December 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Unemployment falls to 4.6 percent, while
growth is adjusting to a new normal
U.S. employment situation: November 2016 December 2, 2016
2. November 2016 employment summary
• November job growth was moderate, but consistent with H2 2016 levels
- The U.S. labor market added 178,000 net new jobs in November, consistent with monthly additions during the second half of 2016 but
below the year-to-date and 2015 averages. With the notable exception of professional and business services (PBS), slower growth affected
most sectors during November, keeping the composition of gains similar in both monthly and annual terms.
- Unemployment dropped by 30 basis points to a cyclical low of 4.6 percent on the back of consistent job growth and a slight decline in the
labor force participation rate to 62.7 percent. Total unemployment mirrored this trend, also declining by 20 basis points to 9.3 percent. At
the same time, initial unemployment claims continue to slide and now average roughly 252,000 per week, in line with mid-2000s levels.
• The civilian labor force is not expanding fast enough to keep job creation as fast as in 2015
- Labor-market tightening has become very visible at the national level as well as across metropolitan areas. A combination of falling
unemployment and job creation exceeding the rate of labor-force expansion will likely lead to a new normal for monthly growth. Annual
growth in the labor force totaled 1.3 percent in November compared to 1.6 percent for total non-farm employment, further thinning the
remaining slack.
- Demand for goods and services remains on the rise, as evidenced by job openings remaining at roughly 5.5 million and maintaining a 3.7-
percent opening rate. This will keep upward pressure on wages steady and above inflation, although the consumer price index is beginning
to rebound as energy demonstrates initial signs of recovery.
• Consistent growth and inflation approaching 2.0-percent target make Fed hike very likely
- Although growth figures are not at previous levels, they remain healthy enough for the overall labor market to continue heading in the right
direction in terms of demand for workers and wage growth. With inflation now at 1.6 percent and nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2.0-percent
target and unemployment at its lowest point since August 2007, the stage has been set for a rate hike by the end of the year.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
3. November 2016 U.S. labor market at a glance
+178,000
(74 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,253,000
(+1.6% y-o-y)
12-month change
+785,000
10-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.6%
Unemployment rate
-40bp
12-month change in unemployment
62.7%
Labor force participation rate
5,486,000
(3.7% rate)
Job openings
5,081,000
(3.5% rate)
Hires
3,070,000
(2.1% rate)
Quits
3
5. Consistent growth and a drop in participation pushed
unemployment to a cyclical low of 4.6 percent
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
6. Job openings show little change at 5.5 million, but continue to
rise faster than employment at 3.7 percent annually
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jobopenings(thousands)
7. 2.5%
2.7%
3.2%
3.3%
3.5%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.9%
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5%
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Construction
Information
Trade, transportation and utilities
Other services
Financial activities
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Professional and business services
Job openings rate
A healthy mix of office-using and non-office-using sectors is
seeing the fastest rate of job-opening growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
8. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
Hires levels have become more volatile, but the hiring rate
remains stable at 3.5-3.6 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. Hourly wage growth fell back to 2.5 percent in November, while
rising inflation is beginning to eat away at gains
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI data as of March 2016
9
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-month%change
Hourly wage growth CPI growth
10. 0.0%
1.5%
1.9%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
4.1%
4.1%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Mining and logging
Education and health
Other services
Professional and business services
Construction
Trade, transportation and utilities
Manufacturing
Financial activities
Leisure and hospitality
Information
12-month % change in wages
Information and leisure back to recent levels of wage growth
(4.1 percent); education and mining continue to lag
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red
10
11. A slowdown in labor-force growth will keep employment from
reaching the gains seen in 2015 and early 2016
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-month%change
Civilian labor force Total non-farm
12. After showing signs of growth, the labor force participation
rate declined by 10bp to 62.7 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
13. -10.0
-8.3
-6.0
-4.0
-0.3
1.2
2.0
2.0
2.8
4.0
6.0
8.9
14.3
19.0
22.0
29.0
34.7
44.0
63.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Information
Retail trade
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Nondurable goods
Mining and logging
Wholesale trade
Other services
Financial activities
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Construction
Government
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
Countering slow growth or even contractions in key industries,
PBS returned to very healthy rates of increase in November
13
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14. -89.0
-77.0
-54.0
2.4
12.1
15.0
23.0
52.2
60.6
63.1
74.0
153.0
155.0
217.0
222.6
293.0
492.1
571.0
581.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Other services
Financial activities
Construction
Government
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
581.0
571.0
293.0
222.6
153.0
432.4
Education and health PBS
Leisure and hospitality Retail trade
Financial activities Manufacturing
All other jobs
With the slowdown in growth affecting most industries, there
has been little change in annual composition of gains
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
Core subsectors added 80.8 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
16. A rebound in PBS in recent months is making up for downward
revisions to financial activities and information figures
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
17. The tech slowdown continued in November, with year-over-year
growth now at 4.3 percent; still 2.7x faster than total non-farm
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through September 2016
17
12-month%change(jobs)
18. Initial unemployment claims remain on a slow but steady
downward trend and now average ~252,000 per week
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
18
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
20. Florida remains the leader in local employment growth due to
cyclical volatility and diversified growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
Dallas
3.3%
Salt Lake
City
3.4%
Seattle-
Bellevue
3.7%
Orlando
4.0%
Denver
3.6%
21. As with the official unemployment rate, total unemployment
registered a 20-basis-point drop to 9.3 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Totalunemployment(%)
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21