September 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Despite a slower-than-expected August jobs
report, strong underlying fundamentals exist
U.S. employment situation: August 2015 September 4, 2015

August 2015 employment summary
• August posted below-expected job growth of 173,000 net new jobs, which was also slower than the 200,000-250,000-range more common in
recent months. This is likely to be either aberrant, and may be potentially revised upward in future updates. Revisions to June and July data
meant that year-to-date growth now rests at slightly below 1.7 million new jobs.
• Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to 5.1 percent, while unemployment for college graduates continues to hover between 2.5 and 2.7
percent, slightly less than half the national rate, signifying labor shortage challenges potentially impeding growth in certain areas. In August,
the civilian labor force contracted by 40,000 people; combined with relatively sustained growth elsewhere, which helped to push down the
unemployment rate.
• Sustained employment and a looming talent crunch in major markets becoming more apparent have enabled wages to grow even more above
the rate of inflation, in part due to the ongoing collapse in energy prices. Private-sector wages are up 2.2 percent year-on-year, while those in
professional and business services are growing even faster at 2.7 percent. Both of these figures are 10 basis points higher than in July.
• Office-using industries contributed just 45,000 jobs to August’s growth, continuing a trend of somewhat muted office-using employment gains.
A 7,000-job contraction in information was the biggest contributor, although financial services is picking up steam and added 19,000 new jobs
over the month. On the other hand, manufacturing dropped by 17,000 jobs, while mining and logging posted losses of 10,000 jobs.
• At the market level, Silicon Valley’s annual job growth remains on the up and is now at 6.2 percent, the highest rate recorded for a JLL-tracked
market this cycle. Tech-heavy markets such as San Francisco and Seattle as well as the rapidly-growing Sun Belt markets such as the
Carolinas, South Florida and Texas remain leaders, although Houston is beginning to see a sharp slowdown in employment growth to 2.2
percent, compared to the nearly 4.0-percent growth just one year ago.
- Even slower-growth markets, particularly those in the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast, posted small but significant bumps in annual
growth rates.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

August 2015 labor market at a glance
+173,000
(59 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,919,000
(+2.1 y-o-y)
12-month change
+780,900
10-year average annual growth
5.1%
Unemployment rate
-100bp
12-month change in unemployment
8.4%
10-year average unemployment
5,249,000
(+12.3% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,177,000
(+7.4% y-o-y)
Hires
2,748,000
(+11.3% y-o-y)
Quits

August saw moderately slower growth than previous months,
although revisions in June and July boost YTD totals
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
201,000
266,000
119,000
221,000
260,000
245,000
245,000
173,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
1-monthnetchange
4

Unemployment drops by 20bp to 5.1 percent due to sustained
job growth, but also a 41,000-person drop in the labor force
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
5

Job openings are at record highs, up 12.3 percent year-on-year
to nearly 5.3 million in May
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jobopenings(thousands)

0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Consumerconfidenceindex
Although August registered slower employment growth, the
consumer confidence rebounded to 101.5 points
7

-17.0
-12.0
-10.0
-7.0
-5.0
-4.0
1.5
3.0
5.7
7.3
10.7
11.2
11.2
19.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
56.4
62.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Manufacturing
Nondurable goods
Mining and logging
Information
Durable goods
Other services
Utilities
Construction
Motor vehicles and parts
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Financial activities
Government
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
1-month net change (thousands)
Education and health led an otherwise quieiter August,
accounting for 35.8 percent of gains
8
Education and health
PBS
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
74.0 percent of
monthly
growth.

Contractions in manufacturing and mining resulted saw goods-
producing employment decline by 24,000 jobs in August
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Goods-producing Service-providing
9

-80.0
11.0
32.0
44.0
46.1
61.0
80.0
87.5
119.9
124.0
130.0
140.9
170.0
219.0
332.5
439.0
564.1
611.0
641.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Utilities
Information
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Other services
Durable goods
Wholesale trade
Temporary help services
Manufacturing
Government
Transportation and warehousing
Construction
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Education and health
Retail trade
Manufacturing
All other jobs
Mining and logging due to energy market reset posted greater
annual losses at -80,000 as of August
10
Core subsectors added 79.4 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.

0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Unemployment(%)
Unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders essentially at
“full” levels of 2.5-2.7 percent; 2.5 percent in August
11

Tech reaches even greater rates of growth (+6.1 percent), while
energy continues to plummet
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through July 2015.
12
12-month%change(jobs)

Tech job creation hovers slightly above 6.0 percent with
sustained industry demand
Year-on-year percent employment growth
13

Weekly claims over the course of 2015 have fallen to an average
of around 270,000
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
Hires and quits continue to rise as employee confidence
improves, up 7.4 and 11.3 percent, respectively

Silicon Valley job creation rate rose again to 6.2 percent year-on-
year, continuing to lead among major markets
16
Silicon Valley
6.2%
San
Francisco
4.4%
Fort
Lauderdale
3.4%
Seattle
3.8%
Dallas
3.7%
Charlotte
3.6%
Austin
3.6%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still growing
slower, but have seen a small bump of late
17
Hampton
Roads
1.4%
St. Louis
1.6%
Milwaukee
1.6%
Cleveland
1.4%
Philadelphia
1.5%

Total unemployment fell by another 10bp to 10.3 percent in
August and is now beginning to approach pre-recession levels
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
18

In absolute terms, the labor force fell by 41,000 people, while
the rate stayed at its low of 62.6 percent
19
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)

Net contraction of 7,000 jobs in information combined with
slower PBS growth reduced office-using share of additions
20

Financial activities has begun to rebound, but slower PBS
growth and drops in information have dragged drown gains
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
21

For the first time, temporary help services employment
surpassed the 2.9-million mark despite contracting in July
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporaryemployment(ths)
22

©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
John Sikaitis
Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research
John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
Or, find more employment, business and real estate
research at jll.com.
>>> Click here to check it out.

September 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

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