Talk at Sensorik-Stammtisch of thew Mittelstand 4.0-Kompetenzzentrum Ilmenau, http://www.kompetenzzentrum-ilmenau.digital/news/item/157-predictive-analytics-thema-beim-sensorik-stammtisch #ibmaot

1. 1
Von der Zustandsüberwachung zur
vorausschauenden Wartung
Ilmenau, 31. Mai 2018
Peter Schleinitz
Member of the IBM Academy of Technology
IBM Global Markets

2. 2
IBM
• Digitalisierung
• Business Analytics, Cloud
Computing (für
Unternehmen), Security und
künstliche Intelligenz
• Watson IoT
Center/München

3. KONE 24/7 Connected Services
Traditional
DISCONNECTED
BLACK BOX
REACTIVE
Revolutionary
CONNECTED
COGNITIVE
PREDICTIVE

4. 4
KONE
Business Challenge:
Transform KONE's operations and technology capabilities around the world, using
IBM's technology and experience to harness the potential of digitalization and the
Internet of Things (IoT).
Solution:
KONE will use IBM's Watson IoT Cloud Platform to collect and store equipment
data, build applications and develop new solutions. The platform will gather data
from sensors and systems connected to elevators, escalators, doors and turnstiles
in KONE's maintenance base. With IBM's advanced analytics engine, that
information will be used to enable new services and new experiences for KONE's
customers.
With the IoT platform, KONE ecosystem partners and third parties can create new
services and integrate existing services via Application Programming Interfaces.
These new services will range from solutions which improve People Flow in
buildings and new smart building applications; to others that advance the speed,
reliability and safety for elevator maintenance, remote monitoring and servicing.
Benefits:
"Our agreement with IBM is exciting and it is an important stepping stone to deliver
the best People Flow experience," says Henrik Ehrnrooth, President & CEO of
KONE Corporation.
"We operate in a connected world and by working with IBM, new solutions like
improved remote diagnostics and predictability, means we will deliver better services
for our customers and great experiences for the people who use our equipment."

5. IBM’s three-layered Industrie 4.0 Reference Architecture
balancing load with lifecycle capabilities at Edge, Plant and Enterprise
*Refer to Industrie 4.0 Implementation at: https://www.ibm.com/devops/method/content/architecture/implementation/iot_industrie_40
EDGE PLANT ENTERPRISE
EDGE DEVICES
ENTRY POINT:
Cyber-Physical Systems
ENTRY POINT: ENTRY POINT:
Cross-plant
Insights /
Analy9cs
New models,
speed, func9ons,
channel
Watson IoT
Pla,orm
Containerized
SW functionality:
¨ Rules
¨ Store
¨ Analytics
scoring
¨ Filtering
In-plant or remote
functionality:
¨ Connectivity
¨ Data collection
¨ Conditional
Monitoring
¨ Predictive
analytics
Cognitive IoT
functionality:
¨ Innovation
¨ Disruption
¨ Scalability
Edge - Level Plant - Level
ENTRY POINT:
Plant Service Bus
Shopfloor Analy9cs
& Workflow
In-plant
functionality:
¨ Connectivity
¨ Rules
¨ Message Hub
collect
control
analyse
improve
Enterprise - Level

6. 6
Sensoren als Basis für Applikationen

7. 7
via other industrial and IoT protocols, including HART, PROFIBUS, Bluetooth
via MQTT & HTTPS (de-facto standard) protocols, supported by many sensor makes
(see next page for examples)
Gateway
HW & SW
Examples to connect sensors to IBM platforms
1
2

8. 8

9. 9
Predictive Analytics in der
Fertigungsindustrie
• Termintreue, (Prozess-) Qualität und
Bedarfsplanung
• Effizienz und Innovationskraft
• signifikante geschäftliche Vorteile
• vor allem für große Unternehmen
https://goo.gl/QxWjDj

10. 10
Gain significantly greater insight from operational data generated by
critical assets to help improve reliability and performance

11. Machine Learning models
• A feature is a numerical representation of
raw data.
• A model is a mathematical “summary” of
features.
• Training of a model could be
• supervised: provide labeled training data to
learn pattern (e.g. regression)
• unsupervised: must learn pattern from
unlabeled data set (e.g. clustering)
Feature 1
Target
Feature 1
Feature2
Feature 1
Feature2
Regression
• Fit the target
value
Classification
• Decide between
classes
Clustering
• Group data
points tightly

12. Machine Learning pipeline
• Collect raw data from sensors, pictures,
machines, ERP, MES, people, etc.
• Extract relevant features
• Build machine learning model
• Deploy found model in production
• Use the model to predict future
• Iterative process needed to improve /
guarantee quality
• New roles (Data Scientist) and tools
Raw data
Features
Models
Deploy in
Produc6on
Use / Predict

13. Predic've
Maintenance
Condi'on Based
Maintenance
Predic've
Quality
A7er
Sales
Marke'ng
Industrial Big Data/Machine Learning Use Cases

14. PREDICTIVE
QUALITY
14
25% increase in overall
productivity of cylinder-
head line
50% reduction in time
required to achieve
process target levels
100% payback achieved
within two years

15. 15
FIRC
001
TIR
002
TIR
003
Typische Ven,lfehler
• Verschlissen
• Fouling/Blockage
Ven,lfehler führen zu Anlagens,llständen
• Ungeplante Produk,onsausfälle
• Austausch des Ven,ls
Datenanalyse
• Verhindern von
Produk,onsausfällen
• Designempfehlungen
• Ven,lverbesserungen
Anwendungsbeispiel Ventildiagnose

16. 16
Verbesserung Operational
Efficiency
2014-02-11
0xA5D42
23,01256 01010
Data Mining
Methoden
Datenanalyse
Ventilverständnis
Teststand
Fehler-
klassifikation
Data Management and Integration Broker
Operator / Process Expert / Data Analyst
Data Storage
Raw Data ModelsResults
Data CurationCurator 1 Curator 2 Curator n...
Access Control and AnonymizationSpec. 1 Spec. 2 Spec. n...
DashboardAnalysisIntegrationData
Data Adapter Data Adapter
Data
Warehouse
Data Analyzer
Analyzer1
...
Analyzer2
Data Analysis HMI
Task1
Task2
Task3
...
Data Access /
Analysis HMI
Task1
Task2
Task3
...
Legacy Data Acc. / Anal. HMI
Wrapper
Legacy Data Acc. / Anal. HMI
Task1
Task2
Task3
...
Data Access HMI
Manipulation
Consistency
Check
...
DataView1
Additional Metadata
Company RDBs
CAPE
SAP
Maintenance Data
Plant / Machine Data
Legacy Analyzer
Wrapper
Legacy Analyzer
Analyzer1
Analyzer2
...
Systemarchitektur
FIRC
001
TIR
002
TIR
003
Anlagenstruktur +
Auslegungsdaten
Prozessdaten Equipmenthistorie
V-001
V-002
V-003
V-004
Wartungsdaten
V-361
Defekt:
Wartung:
Analyse
SIDAP-Datenbasis
Datenquellen
PandIX
Anlage
- StatusNE107 : NE107_Status : int
Anlagenteil
AnlagenteilElement PLTStelleElement
ProzessanlagenelementElement
PLTStelle
Prozessanlagenelement
Teilanlage
- Version : String
- Ort : String
- Name : String
- ID : String
Anlagenbaustein
VDI 5600
- Zeitstempel : Date
- Istwert : float
c_e_a_PPE_Prozesswert
- Sollwert : float
c_d_a_PPV_Prozesswert
- PAE_ID : Prozessanlagenelement
Prozessanlagenelement_Historie
AnlagenteilElement_Historie
- PAEE_ID : ProzessanlagenelementElement
ProzessanlagenelementElement_Historie
- Grund : String
- Ausbau : Date
- Einbau : Date
Historie
VDI5600_Prozesswert
- Bearbeiter : String
- Auftragsnummer : String
- Ausbau : Date
- Einbau : Date
Wartung
- Ursache : String
- Fehlerfrequenz : float
- Fehlerursache : String
- Fehlererkennung : String
Fehler
NAMUR NE 107
NE107_Status
Ausfall
Funktionskontrolle
Wartungsbedarf
OutOfSpec
Datenmodell
Fehlerhaftes
Ventil
Systemarchitekt
Prozessexperte
Big Data Infrastruktur
Smart Data Prinzipien zur Analyse von Regelventilen
Datenanalyst

17. 17
Operator
Dienstleister
Empfehlungen
Wartungs- /Prozessdaten
Hersteller
Designhinweise
Wartungs- /
Prozessdaten
AssetZustand
Asset
Information
InnovationAnlage
Engineering
Anlage
Prozess-
verbesserungen
Innovationspotentiale: Detailliertes Prozess- und
Anlagenwissen bündeln

18. Predictive Maintenance and Optimization
models address 2 equipment classes
18
totaldown)me+maintenancecost
cost of down)me & maintenance
A B C
A) Customized models for: most critical
equipment; unique functionality; unplanned
downtime has major impact on production;
significant repair cost
B) Standard model for: critical equipment; many
assets of similar type or class; unplanned
downtime impacts production; cumulative
maintenance costs are significant
C) Least critical equipment; easily replaced using
“run to failure” or “time based maintenance”
ABC classifica)on of equipment types
for manufacturing opera)ons
number of equipment types

19. 19

20. 20
IBM developerWorks recipes
• Go to https://developer.ibm.com/recipes/
• Search for “sensors”

21. 21
Vielen Dank!

22. 22
• h"ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeAgH4TJE-8
• h"ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgWIx601caY&t=9s