If the world is to beat climate change and meet the conditions of the Paris agreement, society must see a fundamental transformation in the way we produce, distribute, and consume energy across transportation, heating, and home and business consumption of electricity. There are many ways to achieve this goal, and only time will tell whether we as a society will succeed and by what means. For the first of the SPARK webinar series, John Armstrong kicks off with his predictions for the future of the energy sector. He’ll look at 10 key areas which are due to see radical change. is John right? Has he been too bold, or not bold enough?

1. How will energy look in 2030?
10 predictions for the next 10 years
John Armstrong
Head of City Energy
E.ON UK

2. Do you have?
- Solar Panels
- Home Battery
- Electric Vehicle
- Heat Pump
- Hydrogen Boiler
Select all that apply to you!
2
Decarbonising
Heat

3. There are endless opportunities to
collaborate:
- Re-using Heat
- Electric Vehicle Charging
- ‘Low Grade’ Heat
3

4. Heat accounts for 50% of
energy use.
· Little progress to date
reducing carbon intensity.
· Shift towards heat pumps as
gas boilers phased out.
4
Decarbonising
Heat

5. Insulation Matters!
- 14m UK properties have an EPC
rating of ‘D’ or less.
- UK has some of the worst
performing properties in Europe!
- At least 5m need to be rated A or B
by 2030. All by 2050.
Focus on
Insulation 5

6. Hydrogen comes in lots of flavours!
- Black
- Blue
- Brown
- Green
To decarbonise current global
Hydrogen production would take entire
renewables capacity of Europe!
Likely to develop in some specific
regional grids. Maybe one in the North
East or North West by 2030.
Hydrogen is not in itself green!
6
Hydrogen

7. What happened when gas use reduces?
Potentially 7m less gas grid users by
2030 with a move to heat pumps.
Pockets of network switched to
Hydrogen.
Who pays for the infrastructure that’s
no longer used?
7
Zombie
Grids

8. Potentially exciting opportunity.
- Potential to supply 20% of power.
- Expect at least one project to get off
the ground by 2030.
8
Tidal Barrages
Tidal Barrages

9. The system will get smarter!
- Local Control integrated into wider
system
- Electric system balancing
- Artificial Intelligence
9
Digitalisation

10. There are endless opportunities to
collaborate:
- Potential to supply 18% of heat
- Re-using Heat
- Use of ‘Low Grade’ Heat
- Supported by government
At least two major cities will have
extensive low temperature networks
by 2030.
10
Sharing
Networks

11. Electric vehicle growth set to be
significant
- Rapid uptake
- Electric Vehicle Charging
- Challenges of resources for batteries
50% Electric vehicles by 2030!
11
Transport

12. Lack of options to decarbonise Air
Travel…
Challenge of charging electric planes.
Other fuels – ammonia, methanol,
biofuels.
Potential to need to reduce Air Travel….
50% by 2030?
12
Air Travel

13. What else haven’t we thought of?
- Small Modular Nuclear Reactors
- Geothermal
- Nuclear Fusion
Plenty of other curve balls to come!
13
Black
Swan

14. The future of energy:
Sharing
Hydrogen
Insulation
Flight
Transport
Black Swans….
14
A lot of
options!

15. By 2030 do you think you will have?
- Solar Panels
- Home Battery
- Electric Vehicle
- Heat Pump
- Hydrogen Boiler
Select all that apply to you!
15
Decarbonising
Heat

16. Thank-you!
www.linkedin.com/in/johnmichaelarmstrong