Presentation to the Professional and Scholarly Publishers division of the Association of American Publishers, Feb. 3, 2016. The topic is how different companies pursue their strategies: bulwarks, agility, and foresight.

1. Bulwarks, Agility
& Foresight
PSP 2016 Keynote
Joseph J. Esposito
Partner, STM Advisers LLC
Washington, D.C. | February 3, 2016
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2. Three Hypothetical Organizations
1. For-profit publisher; revenue=$100
million
2. Not-for-profit society publisher;
revenue=$25 million
3. Publishing start-up
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3. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial
Publisher
? ? ?
Society
Publisher
? ? ?
Publishing
Start-up
? ? ?
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4. 4

5. Publishers Under Siege (the short list)
Open access movement
The militant librarian
Assault on copyright
Political communitarians
Tech companies
Nasty PR on pricing (esp. for textbooks)
Hostile media environment
Funding agency interference
And so on, ad infinitum
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6. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial
Publisher
? ?
Society
Publisher
? ?
Publishing
Start-up
? ? ?
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YES
?

7. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial
Publisher
? ?
Society
Publisher
? ?
Publishing
Start-up
? ? ?
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YES
YES

8. The Bulwark of Capitulation
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9. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial
Publisher
YES ? ?
Society
Publisher
YES ? ?
Publishing
Start-up
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YESNO ASSERTED

10. “Agile” as Metaphor
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11. “Agility” is inversely
related to foresight.
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12. Start-ups . . .
May be eating everybody’s lunch
Innovate faster than established
companies
May have little room to grow
Can’t use a bulwark strategy
No assets to defend!
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13. Bulwarks . . .
Are an essential component of an
established company’s strategy
Tend to monopolize the bandwidth
of senior executives
Look to the past, not to the future
NB: Investors value future earnings
Must be complemented by vigorous
future-oriented strategies, that is,
by foresight
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14. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial
Publisher
YES REACTIVE ESSENTIAL
Society
Publisher
YES DIFFICULT ESSENTIAL
Publishing
Start-up
NO YES ASSERTED
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15. 15
The Black Art of Foresight
“The Fortune Teller,” Georges de la Tour. c. 1630

16. Developing Business Foresight
Seek multiple inputs
Outsiders
The rank and file
Place lots of small bets
Study other segments of the publishing
industry for new ideas
Put your best people on the new activities
Be on the lookout for entrants from left field
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17. What’s on My Own Screen Now?
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18. 18
A Few Things to Watch For
Data science
Network model
Implications of large
end-user database
Mobile-based
control panel
Potential for
disruption in
institutional ebook
market

19. Contact Information
Joseph J. Esposito
Partner, STM Advisers LLC
http://stmadvisers.com
espositoj@gmail.com
@josephjesposito
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