Contenu connexe Similaire à Educause 2012 talk (20) Educause 2012 talk1. Bigfoot, Goldilocks, and Moonshots:
A Report From the Frontiers of Personalized Learning
Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director November 7th, 2012
2. My frame of reference
Motivations:
Private sector:
• Increased access to
• Strategy and management
opportunity
consultant
• Hard problems
• Software entrepreneur
• Impatient actors
• MBA • Enlightened self interest
Nonprofit sector:
• Consultant to National Park
Service, charter schools, and
health services
• Foundation program officer –
innovative technology and
delivery in postsecondary ed
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
3. In the end, the American dream is not a sprint,
or even a marathon, but a relay. Our families
don’t always cross the finish line in the span
of one generation. But each generation
passes on to the next the fruits of their labor.
Julian Castro
Mayor, San Antonio
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
4. Education is the pathway to opportunity in
the U.S.
Intergenerational correlation between parent and children‟s income,
by transmission channel 100%
12-39%
1-28%
3%
5%
8%
14%
30%
Education Race of Health State of Female- Financial Unexplained Total inter-
of parents head of status of residence headed assets (e.g., generational
household parents household motivation, correlation =
social 0.431
networks, (1.0 would
community, be perfectly
norms) correlated)
Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
5. Higher education is not equitably distributed
Bachelor‟s Degree attainment by age 24
Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 –
2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009. © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
6. Economic competitiveness argues for more
education as well
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and
Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
7. Degree attainment is flat
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)
55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)
1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%)
2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%)
3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%)
4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%)
5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%)
6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%)
7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%)
8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%)
9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)
10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)
11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)
12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)
13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)
14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)
15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%)
Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported) © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |7
8. Three challenges for the next decade
Access Quality
Enrollment caps
Low completion rates
Course availability
Unclear learning
“Non-traditional” new outcomes
normal
Costs
Tuition increasing 3%
over inflation
State budget cuts
Limited student ability
to pay
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
9. Three challenges for the next decade
Access Quality
Enrollment caps
Low completion rates
Course availability
Unclear learning
“Non-traditional” new outcomes
normal
Costs
Tuition increasing 3%
over inflation
State budget cuts
Limited student ability
to pay
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
10. We have made impressive strides in improving
college access…
Fall FTE (Full Time Equivalent) Enrollment by Sector, 1987-2009
Total %
Period % Change
Change
1987-1993 1993-2001 2001-2009 1987-2009
15M
29% 49% 184% 447%
For-profit
10% 9% 19% 43%
10
Private 4 year
11% 4% 18% 37%
Public 4 year
5
27% 5% 22% 62%
Public 2 year
0
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database
11. …but enrollment growth may be reversing
Five Reasons College
Enrollments Might Be Dropping
Survey offers dire picture of October 24, 2012 Richard Vedder
state's two-year colleges
August 29, 2012 Carla Rivera …state by state, enrollments appear to be down,
mostly at community colleges and at some four-
year schools as well. In Ohio, preliminary
More than 470,000 community college students numbers from the Board of Regents of the
are beginning the fall semester on waiting lists, University System of Ohio show a 5.9 percent
unable to get into the courses they need, decline, and the drop-off at one community
according to a survey of California's two-year college (Hocking) was so precipitous (more than
colleges that captures a system struggling amid 20 percent) that it had to dismiss staff. In other
severe budget cuts…. Midwest states such as Michigan and
Wisconsin, numbers at some institutions have
fallen as well. In Arizona, one large Tucson-
area community college (Pima) shows a decline
of 11 percent...
Source: L.A. Times; Washington Monthly © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
12. “Hidden capacity constraints” extend beyond
formal enrollment caps
Percent of Community College Student Unable to Enroll in One or More
Courses Because Full
20 and 21 Year Old Students 45
California Students 47
Latino Students 55
Community College Students 32
Source: Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive,
Field dates: September 27th through November 4th, 2010 © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
13. Meanwhile, student demographics are
increasingly nontraditional
“Traditional”
• Enter college
directly after high
school 25%
• Enroll fulltime “Non-traditional”
• Financially • Financially
dependent on independent
their parents 75% (>50%)
• Have dependents
of their own (27%)
• Work full time
(38%)
• Enroll part time
(49%)
Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
14. Three challenges for the next decade
Access Quality
Enrollment caps
Low completion rates
Course availability
Unclear learning
“Non-traditional” new outcomes
normal
Costs
Tuition increasing 3%
over inflation
State budget cuts
Limited student ability
to pay
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
15. Too few students are graduating
Percentage of students expecting to earn credentials
who had earned a credential within five years
100%
Bachelor's
80% 73%
Associate's
61%
60% 55%
53% Certificate
40% 38%
20%
0%
Total Private Public 4- Private Public 2-
not-for- year for-profit year
profit
Source: NELS 1988
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
16. Developmental education is one of the
drivers of low completion rates
100
90 17% Never enroll
80
What happens to students
70
who test 3 levels below
60
college level math?
50
40 83%
30 66%
20
10 17%
0 10%
Referred Enroll, don't Complete Pass gatekeeper
complete sequence
SOURCE: Bailey, et al. Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental education
sequences in community colleges. CCRC (2009). © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
17. What students are actually learning is
being questioned
45 percent of students
“demonstrated no
significant gains in critical
thinking, analytical
reasoning, and written
communications during
the first two years of
college”
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
18. Employers give recent graduates decidedly
low marks on essential learning outcomes
46%
Global Knowledge 18%
42%
Self-direction 23%
37%
Writing 26%
31%
Critical Thinking 22% Not well prepared
Very well prepared
23%
Oral Communication 30%
19%
Ethical Judgment 38%
17%
Teamwork 39%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Source: AAC&U © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
19. Three challenges for the next decade
Access Quality
Enrollment caps
Low completion rates
Course availability
Unclear learning
“Non-traditional” new outcomes
normal
Costs
Tuition increasing 3%
over inflation
State budget cuts
Limited student ability
to pay
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
20. The public story on tuition growth is not
pretty
Source: New York Times
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
21. States are reducing per student funding to
colleges
Source: TIME: Degrees of Difficulty © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
http://nation.time.com/2012/10/18/degrees-of-difficulty/?pcd=teaser
22. The reality is cost per FTE at publics have
only increased modestly
Per FTE Expenditures by Sector,
Indexed and Inflation-Adjusted, 1999-2009 Total %
Change
1.5 1999-2009
For-profit 32%
1.3
Private 4 year 17%
Public 4 year 6%
Public 2 year 1%
1.0
0.8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Note: All figures are real and adjusted for inflation
The sub-set of private research institutions experienced even larger growth in spending per FTE of 29% over this period
Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
23. The effect on students is inescapable
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as quoted in Bill Bowen’s Tanner Lectures
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
24. Three challenges for the next decade
Access Quality
Enrollment caps
Low completion rates
Course availability
Unclear learning
“Non-traditional” new outcomes
normal
Costs
Tuition increasing 3%
over inflation
State budget cuts
Limited student ability
to pay
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
25. Meet Brianna
Started technical college with AP credit in chemistry
and a clear goal: to become a veterinarian
Ambition: 2-year associates degree
Her bet on finishing college? 100%
Estimated cost of attendance: ~$15,000
Expected family contribution: $2,500
• Mom and Dad paid it
Total aid package (including loans): $8,000
Unmet need: $4,500
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS; photo CC-BY/NC (Joy Banwejee)
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
26. Brianna Took 12 Credits and Worked 30
Hours/Week
Schedule:
5:30 am Wake up
6:30 am Commute to school
7:30 am – 11:00 pm Attend class, drive to work
11:00 am – 1:00 pm Work job #1, drive to school
1:30 pm – 5:30 pm Attend class, drive to work
6:00 pm – 11:30 pm Work job #2, drive home
12:00 am Take muscle relaxant and try
to sleep
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
27. Brianna‟s College Experience
“More than a couple of times, I fell asleep in my 7:30
am class…I'd get there and I'm trying to stay awake
and I'm doing the „head-bob‟ and before you know it
my head is in my book …and every once in awhile you
get a wake-up with a puddle of drool.”
At the end of her first term:
• Course #1: D
• Course #2: C
• Course #3: D
• Course #4: Withdrew
• CUMULATIVE GPA: 0.750
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
28. What‟s it like to be dismissed?
“It was kinda…it was almost kinda like a relief cause it‟s
like, you know, “Wow! This is, you know, it‟s over,” but
then again, it was, it was pretty stressful cause it was
like, “You know, I went through all this work, and I
accomplished nothing. I failed.” It was kinda a little bit of
both, and it actually hit me pretty hard cause I was just
crushed. I was like, „Wow! I‟m never gonna get
anywhere. I‟ve got, you know, pretty much no hope for
the future‟...
The bottom is scary, and you just don‟t really feel like
you‟re really worth anything, and you‟re trying to get
back on your feet; and you just beat yourself up cause
it‟s like, you know…”
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
29. How ready are traditional institutions to navigate
the new reality?
“In the view of many college and university
presidents, the three main factors in higher
education—cost, quality, and access—exist in
what we call an iron triangle. These factors are
linked in an unbreakable reciprocal
relationship, such that any change in one will
inevitably impact the others.”
- Public Agenda research on opinions
of higher education presidents
Source: The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality, Public Agenda, October 2008.
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
32. Bigfoot
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
33. Bigfoot = undeniably better learning
outcomes at repeatably lower costs
I have come to believe that “now is the time”—that far
greater access to the internet, improvements in
internet speed, reductions in storage costs, and other
advances have combined with changing mindsets to
suggest that online learning, in many of its
manifestations, can lead to good learning outcomes
at lower cost.
Bill Bowen
President Emeritus, Princeton University
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
34. The core idea: the two-sigma problem
Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984
35. Closing the loop on learning
“What don’t I
Learning
know?”
Feedback
Loop
Student Data
Alignment
Alignment Learning Alignment
Objectives
“How did “How do I
I do?” learn this?”
Assessment Content
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
36. Example: Carnegie Mellon Open
Learning Initiative
Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
38. Example: National Center for Academic
Transformation (NCAT)
Student success (C or better)
Changing the Equation Initiative
+50%
• Redesign full developmental math
sequence based on proven model
Before redesign After redesign
• 100,000+ students at 35 community
colleges
Costs per student
• Technology partners include Pearson
MyMathLab, ALEKS, Hawkes
-30%
Learning System, etc.
Before redesign After redesign
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Source: National Center for Academic Transformation 38
40. Example: Arizona State University and
Knewton
The outcome: After one semester of use with over 5,000 remedial math
students at ASU, withdrawal rates dropped by 50% and pass rates went from
66% to 75%. Half the class finished 4 weeks early.
Source: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
41. What carries the flipped classroom
into general education?
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
42. Goldilocks
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
43. Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students
Per semester
credits:
4 year: >=15
5 year: 12-14
6 year: <12
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;
44. There are real costs to poor advising
and degree planning
Community college educational costs by course type
Courses contributing
to a degree taken by
Courses taken by completers*
non-completers*
33
46
14
Excess courses taken
by completers* 7
beyond minimum
Courses failed/withdrawn
by completers*
* Completers defined as students seeking a degree who earned a certificate, Associate’s, or Bachelor’s degree
within 6 years of enrolling. © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Source: Forthcoming report “The Institutional Costs of Student Attrition” by Delta Cost Project, 2012, and
“Winning by Degrees” by McKinsey & Company, 2010
47. Just in Time Enrollment Management
Source: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
48. Student risk prediction and alerts
1. Finances (Scholarship
renewal, to do’s, SAP)
2. Calculated Index (HS
GPA, Test Scores)
3. Academic Status Report
4. eAdvisor (off Track)
5. My ASU Usage
(engagement compared
to their cohort)
6. GPA
7. Probation
8. Transcripts
Sent (excluding
medical, law
schools)
9. Enrollment
Holds
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
49. Impact on student progress
2007 Status 2008 Status 2009 Status
7% 7%
22%
39% 13%
46%
39%
47% 2010 Status
1.2% 80% 0.1% on
track by
5.8% override
Completed
On Track
Off Track 91%
On track by override
Source: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
50. Model Program Pathway Design
Program learning goals clearly defined and aligned
with outcome requirements
Program pathways well structured and prescribed
Students’ progress toward program requirements
closely monitored; timely feedback provided
“On-ramps” help students choose a program of study
Incentives for students to enter and complete
programs
Strong alignment with high school and ABE
Source: Davis Jenkins, Community College Research Center © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
51. WICHE PAR Framework
For new students:
Each concurrent enrollment lowers chance of
passing ~10%
Each prior term withdrawal reduces passing by
~50%
Each additional course completed increases
likelihood of remaining enrolled 13% for Associate
and 23% for Bachelor students
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
52. Moonshots
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
53. “We choose to go to the moon. We choose
to go to the moon in this decade and do the
other things, not because they are
easy, but because they are hard.”
President John F. Kennedy, September
12, 1962, at Rice University, Houston, Texas
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
54. …provide high-quality, affordable education at scale…
“We choose to go to the moon. We choose
to go to the moon in this decade and do the
other things, not because they are
easy, but because they are hard.”
President John F. Kennedy, September
12, 1962, at Rice University, Houston, Texas
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
55. Breakthrough delivery models
Target Performance Metrics
• Completion Rate: 50% Associate’s completion
rate within three years for Pell Grant-eligible
students; 75% within six years for Bachelor’s
• Price and Cost: $5,000 or less per year in student
price and institutional costs
• Scale: 5,000 additional students by year 5 with
path to 50,000
• Quality: Clear definition and monitoring process
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
56. Examples of innovators pursuing high-
quality, affordable degree programs
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
58. What are common features of these
models?
Prior learning assessment
Competency-based progression
Diagnostics assessment and adaptive learning
Badges, interim milestones, and motivational
science
Connective media and peer-to-peer learning
Learning analytics and targeting scarce faculty and
support resources
Online/blended delivery
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
60. A parting challenge
Education
(Access +
Quality +
Completion)
Today
Costs
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
61. The great risk
Education
(Access +
Quality +
Completion)
Today
Tomorrow
Costs
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
62. The great opportunity
Education
(Access +
Quality +
Completion)
Tomorrow
Today
Tomorrow
Costs
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
63. What will it take?
• Business model innovation AND learning model
innovation
• Promoters of innovation AND protectors of quality
• Reimagining instructional model AND deep faculty
engagement
• High technology AND high touch
• Design AND scaling
• Traditional institutions AND breakthrough models
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
64. Thank You
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the
strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have
done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually
in the arena…who at the best knows in the end the triumph of
high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails
while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those
cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
Teddy Roosevelt, April 23, 1910
Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director
Education – Postsecondary Success
josh.jarrett@gatesfoundation.org
www.gatesfoundation.org
Notes de l'éditeur Greetings, etc 3468 W.2.2.10 Interactive Tools, Guides and ServicesDegree Search helps new students understand our majors as well as helps current students find new majors. Students find a major by searching on the name of a major, college, area of interest, campus and/or keyword. For instance, if a student searches for “people,” Degree Search lists all degrees that involve the study of people. How Tracking WorksSun Devil Tracking helps students understand degree requirements and provides early intervention when students get off track with their degree program.Identify: Sun Devil Tracking focuses on students who initially enroll as full-time freshmen and then it tracks their progress during their first four semesters. It identifies and clearly outlines the critical courses, GPA requirements and milestones that predict success in each major. During orientation, freshmen review their major maps with their advisors in order to make sure they register for the right courses. Plan: The student uses major maps and progress reports to plan what courses to take each semester. The university ensures there are enough seats so students can enroll in critical and required courses they need, when they need them. The Course Enrollment Dashboard report provides key information the university uses in course planning.Students pull up their Critical Requirement Audit to find out which courses they need to take next. The Sun Devil Tracking Status report provides advisors and administration a way to track on- and off-track students by academic group. We continue to improve the process and get students on the right track. Through critical tracking, more than 80% of our students are off to a good start and registered for the right courses.