2. URBANIZATION
!
Urbanisa(on
will
not
be
equal
! Most
recent
es*mate:
940
billion
urban
dwellers
by
2030
! Biggest
provincial
gainers:
Guangdong,
Henan,
Hebei
! Urbanisa*on
rate
will
vary
between
the
regions
(East,
North-‐East,
Central,
West)
in
the
range
of
<60
to
>70%,
East
and
North-‐East
leading
the
pack
! In
some
provinces
(Yunnan,
Guizhou
etc.)
urbanisa*on
will
hardly
reach
50%
when
excluding
the
provincial
capital
3. ECONOMIC BENEFITS
!
Urbanisa(on
could
help
to
sustain
China’s
economic
growth
! Urban
economies
more
produc*ve
than
rural
ones
! Consump*on
supported
by
higher
income
levels
! Provide
fruiXul
avenues
for
investment
4. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
!
China’s
urbanisa(on
presents
huge
opportuni(es
! Consumer
good
demand
will
boom
! Services
such
as
educa*on
and
healthcare
will
be
in
high
demand
! Urban
infrastructure
and
property
! Logis*cs
and
e-‐commerce
5. ECONOMIC THREATS
!
Over-‐planning
could
sabotage
the
process
! Focus
on
small
and
medium-‐sized
ci*es
risks
running
against
market
forces
! Investment
beyond
level
that
demographic
trends
will
support
risks
waste
! Urban
popula*on
boom
is
short-‐term:
already
slowing
trend
in
urban
popula*on
growth
! Growth
post-‐2030
will
be
delivered
by
other
emerging
markets
6. RESOURCES ALLOCATION
!
Resources
need
to
be
allocated
to
regions
that
will
see
a
popula(on
boom
! Significant
variance
in
regional
and
city
popula*on
projec*ons
! Huge
demand
for
so^
and
hard
infrastructure
in
major
ci*es
! Fiscal
reform
cri*cal
as
financing
is
lacking
! Awareness
of
local
level
governments’
plans
is
important