"Новые герои индустрии социальных игр: приложения для iOS и Android", Richard Firminger, Managing Director (Europe), Flurry Analytics
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"Новые герои индустрии социальных игр: приложения для iOS и Android", Richard Firminger, Managing Director (Europe), Flurry Analytics
- 1. The New Hero in Social Gaming iOS & Android Apps Richard Firminger General Manager, EMEA June, 2012
- 2. APP ADVERTISING & MEASUREMENT PLATFORM Flurry Analytics Better apps on iOS, Android, BB, WP, HTML5 App Developers: 70,000 Live Applications: 185,000 Devices per month: 530M Sessions per month: 36B Events per month: 350B AppCircle Ad Network Acquisition & Monetization: iOS, Android App Developers: 6,200 Devices per month: 200M Daily Completed Views 3M
- 3. iOS & ANDROID ADDRESSABLE MARKET GLOBAL POPULATION 7 BILLION Sources: United States Census Bureau
- 4. iOS & ANDROID ADDRESSABLE MARKET GLOBAL POPULATION 7 BILLION MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS 6 BILLION Sources: US Census Bureau; International Telecommunication Union
- 5. iOS & ANDROID ADDRESSABLE MARKET GLOBAL POPULATION 7 BILLION MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS 6 BILLION INTERNET USERS 2.3 BILLION Sources: US Census Bureau; International Telecommunication Union
- 6. iOS & ANDROID ADDRESSABLE MARKET GLOBAL POPULATION 7 BILLION MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS 6 BILLION INTERNET USERS 2.3 BILLION WORLDWIDE AFFLUENT ADULTS 2 BILLION Sources: US Census Bureau; ITU; CIA World Factbook; IMF; Professor Roy Adler, Pepperdine University
- 7. iOS & ANDROID ADDRESSABLE MARKET GLOBAL POPULATION 7 BILLION MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS 6 BILLION INTERNET USERS 2.3 BILLION AFFLUENT ADULTS 2 BILLION iOS & ANDROID 530 MILLION Sources: US Census Bureau; ITU; CIA World Factbook; IMF; Professor Roy Adler, Pepperdine University; Facebook; Flurry
- 8. iOS & ANDROID ADDRESSABLE MARKET GLOBAL POPULATION 7 BILLION MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS 6 BILLION INTERNET USERS 2.3 BILLION AFFLUENT ADULTS 2 BILLION ONLY ~25% PENETRATED OF ITS TOTAL iOS & ANDROID ADDRESSABLE MARKET 530 MILLION Sources: US Census Bureau; ITU; CIA World Factbook; IMF; Professor Roy Adler, Pepperdine University; Facebook; Flurry
- 9. “SOFTWARE IS EATING THE WORLD” ANDREESSEN IN WSJ
- 10. APPS EATING THE INTERNET U.S. MOBILE APPS VERSUS WEB CONSUMPTION WEB BROWSING MOBILE APPS 94 81 MINUTES 70 66 74 MINUTES 72 64 MINUTES MINUTES MINUTES MINUTES MINUTES 43 MINUTES June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 Sources: comScore, Alexa, Flurry Analytics; Smartphones & Tablets, U.S.
- 11. HOW BIG IS THIS? 10X PC AND 2X INTERNET USERS PER PLATFORM 5 YEARS AFTER LAUNCH (MILLIONS) 446 248 48 PC (1983) Internet (1995) iOS & Android (2007)
- 12. iOS & ANDROID GAMES COMMAND CONSUMER TIME DAILY SMARTPHONE APP CONSUMPTION, MINUTES PER CATEGORY, WW 7 7 10 10 12 11 24 15 25 24 Q1 2011(68 minutes) Q1 2012 (77 minutes) Games Social Networking News Entertainment Other Source: Flurry Analytics, Smartphones, WW
- 13. iOS & ANDROID GAMES EATING TRADITIONAL GAME REVENUE U.S. PORTABLE GAME SOFTWARE BY REVENUE 19% 34% 36% 11% 57% 58% 70% 9% 6% 2009 2010 2011 iOS & Android Sony PSP Nintendo DS Source: Flurry Analytics, The NPD Group; Flurry analysis & estimates
- 14. INDIES DOMINATE ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ON iOS & ANDROID INDIE VS. ESTABLISHED GAME SESSIONS ON iOS & ANDROID, WW 40% 32% 44% 60% 56% 68% Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Independent iOS & Android Game Developers Game Companies from other Platforms Source: Flurry Analytics
- 15. BUSINESS MODEL: APP STORE TOP 25 GROSSING UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE GERMANY 4% 16% 24% 84% 96% 76% UNITED STATES CHINA TOTAL 8% 12% 13% 92% 88% 87% IN APP PURCHASE PRICING PREMIUM PRICING Source: iTunes App Store, May 2012, Flurry analysis
- 16. APPS VS. GAMES: APP STORE TOP 25 GROSSING UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE GERMANY 28% 40% 36% 64% 60% 72% UNITED STATES CHINA TOTAL 12% 12% 30% 70% 88% 88% GAMES APPLICATIONS Source: iTunes App Store, May 2012, Flurry analysis
- 17. WW 2011 App Ecosystem Revenue WORLDWIDE REVENUES FOR 2011: $3.8 B – IOS AND ANDROID Mobile Advertising 24% In-App 52% Purchases App Sales 24%
- 18. GEN Y PLAYS TIME SPENT BY DEMOGRAPHIC 18% Males (53%) Females (47%) 16% 17% 17% 14% 15% 12% 12% 10% 11% 11% 8% 6% 7% 7% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 13 – 17 18 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 54 55+
- 19. GEN X PAYS MOBILE FREE-TO-PLAY GAMES: MONEY SPENT BY DEMOGRAPHIC 30% 29% Males (58%) Females (42%) 25% 20% 20% 15% 16% 10% 12% 9% 5% 3% 2% 7% 1% 1% 0% 13 – 17 18 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 54 55+ Source: Flurry Analytics
- 20. WOMEN THRIFTY. MEN BINGE. MOBILE FREE-TO-PLAY GAMES: TRANSACTION SIZE BY DEMOGRAPHIC $16 $16.4 $15.5 Males ($15.6) $14 $15.2 $14.8 Females ($11.9) $12 $12.0 $12.0 $12.5 $11.8 $10 $10.4 $8 $8.2 $6 $4 $2 $0 13 – 17 18 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 54 55+ Source: Flurry Analytics
- 21. The App Download Is Only The First Battle Consumers download an average of 85 apps But use only 5-10 apps in a given week Source: Flurry Analytics, Jan 2012 – March 2012
- 22. What Does App Retention Look Like? iOS & Android App User Retention, Months Since Acquisition (%) 100% 38% 29% 24% 20% 16% 14% 11% 9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Source: Flurry Analytics & Estimates
- 23. TOP 6 SUCCESSFUL GAME TYPES ENDLESS PASS TIME NURTURING & COLLECTING BUILDING & SIMULATION SOCIAL RPG GAMER’S GAME POKER / CASINO
- 24. Endless Pass Time Examples Age Distribution 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Angry Birds Fruit Ninja 0% 13-17 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Key Genre Attributes • Intuitive, simple puzzle/arcade mechanics 58% 42% • Leverages h/w (touch, accelerometer) DAU 1,000,000 • Cute, often original IP; mass-mkt appeal Monthly Revenue $500,000 • Infinite replay value; lots of power-ups Investment (minor) $100,000 • May have social leaderboards Investment (major) $400,000
- 25. Social RPG Examples Age Distribution 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Crime City Original Gangstaz 0% 13-17 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Key Genre Attributes • Text-based RPG mechanic 79% 21% • Player-vs-player gameplay DAU 150,000 • Energy /HP depletion Monthly Revenue $600,000 • Clan / team dimension + message / chat Investment (minor) $100,000 • Mission-based & level progression Investment (major) $400,000
- 26. Gamer’s Game Examples Age Distribution 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Infinity Blade II Real Racing 2 0% 13-17 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Key Genre Attributes • Platform-leading graphics 91% 9% • Strong physics engine / middle-ware DAU 50,000 • Sports / battle / racing style sub-genres Monthly Revenue $400,000 • Defined win-lose outcomes Investment (minor) $100,000 • Premium pricing model, often $4.99+ Investment (major) $400,000
- 27. Flurry Services Analytics: Increase Your App Engagement and Retention 1 • Free and powerful. Leading app analytics (iOS, Android, WP, BB, J2ME, HTML5) • Understand and segment app audiences to maximize engagement and revenue AppCircle: Build & Grow Your App Audience 2 • Acquire users with high-quality app recommendations and videos (iOS, Android) • Win-back your best users to build the most loyal and best monetizing audience AppSpot: Maximize Your App Audience Revenue 3 • 2X revenue, reduce cost with free ad serving and mediation, yield-optimized ads • Max eCPMs with mediation and yield optimization leveraging Flurry’s big data set • Max eCPMs selling direct, segmented parts of your audience to top advertisers Ad Analytics: Measure the value of your mobile campaigns 4 • Track your mobile marketing across across all platforms and sources or traffic • Go deep & truly measure the value of your acquired audiences • Understand key metrics such as frequency, session length, retention and ROI
Notes de l'éditeur
- TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF AFFLUENT ADULTS:ADULT = 15 – 64 YEAR OLDS (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND)AFFLUENT = MIDDLE-CLASS AND ABOVEAny other demo/socio classifications?
- VS. TAM, iOS & Android only ¼ PENETRATED. LOTS OF GROWTH LEFT.TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF AFFLUENT ADULTS (TAM)ADULT = 15 – 64 YEAR OLDS (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND)AFFLUENT = MIDDLE-CLASS AND ABOVE
- VS. TAM, iOS & Android only 25¼ PENETRATED. LOTS OF GROWTH LEFT.TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF AFFLUENT ADULTS (TAM)ADULT = 15 – 64 YEAR OLDS (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND)AFFLUENT = MIDDLE-CLASS AND ABOVEONLY JUST GETTING STARTEDTHE GOOD NEWS IS THAT YOURE IN THE BIGGEST CATEGORY BY TIME SPENT AND REVENUE LOOK WHAT YOU’VE DONE TO NINETENDO AND SONY??!!AND INDIES ARE THRIVINGTHE MARKET IS MATURINGMAYBE NOT AS WIDE-OPEN AS IT WASTIME TO GROW UP AS AN INDUSTRY, BE MOR EDISCPLINED AND PLANNEDKNOW YOUR MARKETS, GENRES AND CATEGORIES, PLAN, TEST, RESEARCH, SEGMENTDISTRIBUTION IS GETTING MORE EXPENSIVEREWARDED INSTALLS WILL PROBABLY GO AWAY EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY A MORE SCIENTIFIC APPROACH TO BUYING ENGAGED USERS NOT ONE-OFF DOWNLOADSCHASING RANK BY BUYING INSTALLS IS GOING TO GET HARDERBUT WE JUST STARTING OUT – THERES HOPE AND FEAR IN EQUAL MEASURE
- Andreessen wrote that every sector is being disrupted by software.But the truth is that APPS are eating software. They are the deliver mechanism of software today, and growing faster than anything any of us have ever seen.Read and reference the WSJ article, “Why Software is Eating the World” by Marc Andreessen, August 11, 2011.SOFTWARE DISRUPTING ALMOST EVERY INDUSTRY FROM PC TO AUTOMOTIVE, TO PHOTOGRAPHY TO MUSIC, BOOKS TO GAMES (MORE ON THAT LATER)HP, AMAZON, GOOGLE/MOTOROLAAND APPS AS THE MOST DISRUPTIVE FORM OF SOFTWAREEG FACEBOOK & MOBILEWE ALL HAVE APPS THAT WE USE AS AN INTEGRAL PART OF OUR DAILY LIVES
- Jan 2012 – 36hrs online according to comscore. Europe: Feb 2012 – 28.2hrs online according to comscore.
- FASTEST GROWINGPC IN THE 80’S, INTERNET IN THE 90’S, SMARTPHONES & APPS IN THE 00’SBIGGEST CONSUMER CONTENT REVOLUTION IN OUR LIFETIME
- … but they are challenged for the first time by other categories. With more competition for the consumer’s time, games companies must work harder and smarter to retain and monetize the users they do acquire.SOCIAL NETWORKING NOW FOR THE FIRST TIME BIGGER THAN ANY OTHER SECTORSOCIAL NETWORKING AS A CATEGORY ACTUALLY GROWING FASTER THAN FACEBOOK SO GAMES COMPANIES HAVE TO WORK HARDER & SMARTER TO RETAIN AND MONETISE THE USERS YOU DO ACQUIREPinterest path and other social networking becoming more interesting and populer and maybe those causal time-burning games less engaging these days? WE REFER TO THEM LATER IN THE PRESENTATION AS ENDLESS TIME BURNERS…
- Games are a disruptive force in the total gaming category, decimating the portable (aka handheld) category, traditionally dominated by Nintendo and Sony.REVENUE FROM IOS AND ANDROID IN MARKET SHARE TERMS HAS GROWN FROM 19% IN 2009 TO JUST UNDER 60% LAST YEAR – IN JUST THREE YEARS!SMART, POWERFUL, ANYTIME/ANYWHERE DEVICES THAT ARE ALWAYS IN YOUR POCKETARE RAPIDLY MAKING SPECIALIST HAND-HELD GAMING UNITS OBSOLETE
- SPEARATE SESSIONS BETWEEN INDEPENDENT WHO STARTED THEIR BUSINESS IN MOBILE ON IOS AND ANDROID AND THOSE ESTABLISHED GAMING COMPANIES WHO EXTENDED TO MOBILE Q1 2010 60% OF IN APP GAMES SESSIONS OCURRED IN APPS BUILT BY INDEPENENTSQ1 2011 THIS DROPPED TO 56% BUT BECAUSE OF ESTABLISHED GAME COMPANIES GUYING INDIE EG EA AND CHILLINGO ZYNGA AND NEWTOY DENA AND NGMOCO AND GAMEVIEWBUT BY Q1 OF THIS YEAR INDEPENDENTS APPEARED TO RALLY AND RESTORE DOMINANCEHISTOTICALLY THE VIDEO GAMES MARKET HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY THE ESTABLISHED COMPANIES SUCH AS EA, UBISOFT AND THE SUCH LIKE - HIGH COSTS OF ENTRY IN PRODUCTION, MARKETING AND DISTRIBUTION AND HIGH RETAIL PRICE POINTS CREATED RISK FOR COSNUMERS TO TRY NEW TITLESMOBILE WITH APPLE AND GOOGLE HAS CREATED AN OPEN EGALITARIAN MARKET AND TWO GUYS IN A GARAGE CAN EFFECTLY COMPETE WITH MAJOR BUE-CHIP GAMES COMPANIES
- iOS only Analyis of ALL app stores literally from yesterdayTop 25 grossing in each marketPremium or freemiumGive it away for free, compelling experience and over time extract revenueCredit card or gift card derived payment ability65% freemium revenue and one assume that’s grownG TOO
- And then this simply a count of apps v games in the top 25 grossingSo games arestill where users are spending the most money so remians easily the most lucrative
- GEN Y - YOUNGER 20-EARLY 30S DEFINITION IN WIKIPEDIA BORN 1980 AND AFTER, UNDER 30GEN X LATE 60’S TO 1980, OVER 30 TIME SPENT AGE V SEX IN FREEMIUM GAMESYOUNGEST TO OLDEST, LEFT TO RIGHTTOTAL TIME SPENT 53% MEN, 47% WOMENRELATIVE EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE SEXES18-34 MALES AND FEMALES BEING THE LARGEST GROUPMAJORITY TIME SPEND BY THE YOUNGER, FREE-TO-PLAY WITH A LOT OF GAME TIME IN THE GRIND COMPARED TO OLDER WHO SPEND TO GET THEIR WAY OUT OF IT/
- Men lead women in spending, with the greatest difference occurring in the 25 – 34 year old age group. For freemium games, spending is concentrated between the ages of 25 - 54, with men in this age range representing nearly half (45%) of spending and women representing another third (32%). TIME PORR/CASH RICH
- MEN SPEND 31% MORE PER TRANSACTION - $15.6 VERSUS $11.9THE “SWEET SPOT” IS 25-34 YEAR OLD AGE GROUP REPRESENTING 49% OF REVENUE!AND IN THIS CATEGORY MEN OUTSPEND WOMEN BY 37% PER TRANSACTIONAVERAGE SPEND PER TRANSACTION IS $14EXPLAINS ZYNGAS 3% OF USERS ACCOUNTING FOR 80% OF REVENUE
- Just because a user has downloaded an app, doesn’t mean the app “owns” that user. The battle for user attention continues, not only from the 600k additional apps they might consider,but also because:The average user downloads 85 apps (Flurry data)Attention is limited: Average user only uses to 5-10 apps per week
- With the multitude of new apps competing for a user’s attention, the average app struggles to retain users, losing over 75% after three months.
- KNOW YOUR GENRE, AUDIENCE, MAJOR APPS, ATTTIBUTESMONTLHY REVENUE IAP AND ADVERTISINGOUR WAY OF CATGEORIES – BECAUSE WE SEE MORE APPS THAN ANYONE ON THE PLANET – THESE CATGORIES SHOULD HOLD UP PRETTY WELLIN FILM CATEGORIES ARE REALLY ESTABLISHEDPUZZLE ARCADEGAMES ARE HARD TO SELL ADVERTISING AS THE FOCUS ON IAP OPTIMISATION5% MAKING UP ALL YOUR REVENUE, MONTISE THE OTHER 95% BY SHOW EVENT = COMPLETE IAP THEN CREATE CUSTOM SEGMENT, RUN A CAMPAIGNCUSTOM SEGMENTATION