EO CT and University of Hartford Case Study

1. EO CT and University of Hartford Hartford, CT February 2014 Kaihan Krippendorff www.outthinker.com www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

2. www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

5. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

6. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

8. Tata www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

9. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

10. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

11. Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Sōichirō Honda Charles Revson www.kaihan.net Elizabeth Arden Henry Ford  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

12. Martin Luther King, Jr. Rosa Parks Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Mohammad Yunus Margaret Thatcher www.kaihan.net Nelson Mandela Benjamin Franklin  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

13. Mark Zuckerberg CEO, Facebook Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Motors Susan Lyne CEO, Gilt Groupe Cory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA Marissa Mayer CEO, Yahoo Wayne Gattinella CEO, WebMD Robert Keane Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab CEO, Vistaprint Jeff Bezos Founder, Amazon.com Larry Page CEO, Google Ann Hand CEO, Project Frog www.kaihan.net Josh Linkner Founder, ePrize Tom Adams CEO, Rosetta Stone Mark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

14. Some Victims www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

15. Most Admired Companies Replaced 2000 1. GE 2. Microsoft 3. Dell 4. Cisco 5. Wal-Mart 2005 1. Dell 2. GE 3. Starbucks* 4. Wal-Mart 5. Southwest A.* 2010 1. Apple* 2. Google* 3. Berkshire H.* 4. J&J* 5. Amazon* Source: Fortune Magazine, Most Admired Companies www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

16. Fortune 500 Survival is Falling Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion; Kauffman Foundation, June 2012 www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

17. S&P Lifespan Shortening www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

18. “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mohandas Gandhi www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

19. The th 4 Option® The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to. www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

20. Climb the walls Wait Go home www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

21. How can we predictably create a 4th Option®? www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

22. Two Standard Approaches Option narrowing Rules 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. X X X Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option Alkdjfklsdlkj Asdlkfj bou Alsk boiuoidf Goibjhkal dgs Glijgbuu gds gljgoiud Follow proven rules or best practices www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

23. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell Choose leverage points others overlook Generate more potential strategies Choose strategies competitors will not copy Build buy-in from key stakeholders Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

26. URBN Revenue History $ Millions 2,470 2,270 1,840 1,940 1,510 1,230 1,090 830 350 425 2002 2003 550 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

27. URBN Results Growth Profitability 5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%) 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%) URBN 13 ANF** 5 Industry 5 20 12 14 * 5 years average as of October 2013 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuters www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

28. College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom Every store different … www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

29. The 8Ps Position Process Price Promotion Product Place Physical experience 0 – no difference 1 – 4 year difference 2 – 5+ year difference People www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

30. 8P tool on www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

32. How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?” Alexandra Kosteniuk www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

33. Consciousness Phonetic loop Source: Visuo-special sketchpad ??? Baddeley model of short term working memory www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

34. Consciousness Phonetic loop Source: Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer Baddeley model of short term working memory www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

35. Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master www.kaihan.net Expert  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

36. Europe & Americas – Fairy tales Japan – Koan India – Puranas China – 36 stratagems www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

37. Identifying Outthinkers Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin Value creation (TRS) www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

38. Core Research www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

39. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

40. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

41. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground “I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.” Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview) www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

42. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

43. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

48. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

49. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 49  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

52. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways -… www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

54. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

55. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos Cloud providers Retail www.kaihan.net Cloud services  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

56. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Shoes Customer service www.kaihan.net Shoes  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

57. 7 Force a two-front battle Project your unique capability into a new area. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this? www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

59. 33 Be Good Shareholders Environment Community Corporation Government / country Employees Customers www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

60. 33 Be Good www.kaihan.net 61  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

62. The Holstee Manifesto www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

63. 33 Be good Adopt a strategy that Benefits others. How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering? www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

65. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

66. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing Julie Pickens www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

67. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing Ingvar Kamprad www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

70. 32 Create something out of nothing Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

71. Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

72. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground Where is the next battleground? #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated Who could you coordinate? #7 Force two-front battle How can you project into a new sector? #33 Be good How can you be good? #32 Create something out of nothing What can you create? www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

73. EO CT and University of Hartford – Part II Hartford, CT February 2014 Kaihan Krippendorff www.outthinker.com www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

74. Recap 1.Fourth option 2.Across 8 dimensions 3.Using IDEAS www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

75. Outthinkers are Outliers “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry M. Warner, CEO of Warner Brothers Pictures, circa 1927 “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin President, Royal Society, circa 1895 “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom.” “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923 Ken Olsen President , Digital Equipment Corporation,1977 “The phonograph … is not of any commercial value.” Thomas Alva Edison (Inventor of the Phonograph), circa 1880 www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

76. Session goals 1.Find a Fourth Option® for your business/ career 2.Learn a process and set of tools 3.Feel confident in your ability to apply these going forward www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

78. You just received a $1,000. How would you allocate the money? “Use it to buy something nice for someone special.” “Invest it in a retirement fund.” “Plan a fun and extravagant occasion.” “Put it in a checking account.” “Me Now” “Me Later” 3x www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

79. I | IMAGINE Objective: Give yourself permission to dream a different future. www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

80. I | IMAGINE Objective: Force yourself to travel to a different future. www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

83. I | IMAGINE Objective: Bring that future back to the present. www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

84. I | IMAGINE Objective: Attain strategic clarity. www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

86. Vistaprint www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

87. Vistaprint Competitors Standard size and paper Customized Microbusinesses Big businesses Only online Face to face Technology marketiers Printing Experts www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

88. Vistaprint 0 – no difference Position Product Price Promotion Processes Place Physical experience People www.kaihan.net 1 – up to 4-year difference 2. 5+ year difference  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

90. How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?” Alexandra Kosteniuk www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

91. Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master www.kaihan.net Expert  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

93. Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

95. “Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.” Napoleon Bonaparte www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

96. Selecting your 4th Option High Crazy ideas Winning moves Impact • How far would this get me toward my goal? • How long before the competition responds? Wastes of time Tactics Low Difficult Easy • Can we do this quickly? • Is this inexpensive? • Do we have the capability? www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

98. Make the impossible possible “Each of these looked like show stoppers” Don’t build handsets Risk of no WiFi David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com www.kaihan.net Motorola Early adopters Customer Service too costly No one provides service  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

99. “It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.” - Albert Einstein www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

100. Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell Choose leverage points others overlook Generate more potential strategies Choose strategies competitors will not copy Build buy-in for your strategy Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future Mr. Practical Mr. Obvious Mr. Expert www.kaihan.net Mr. What Works Mr. Cog  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

101. Personal Example www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

105. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

106. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

108. Ratan Tata www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

109. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

110. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

111. kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com @kaihan • Register for newsletter, tools, videos • Work out your Fourth Option® • Email me to get presentation • Contact us at Outthinker for more support www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

112. “Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.” Napoleon Bonaparte www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

114. Make the impossible possible “Each of these looked like show stoppers” Don’t build handsets Risk of no WiFi David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com www.kaihan.net Motorola Early adopters Customer Service too costly No one provides service  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

115. “It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.” - Albert Einstein www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

116. Session goals 1.Find a Fourth Option® for your business/ career 2.Learn a process and set of tools 3.Feel confident in your ability to apply these going forward www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

117. kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com @kaihan • Register for newsletter, tools, videos • Work out your Fourth Option® • Email me to get presentation • Contact us at Outthinker for more support www.kaihan.net  2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

EO CT and University of Hartford Case Study

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