This document provides an agenda and overview for a webinar on the impact of the coronavirus on the Middle East projects market. The webinar will include presentations on market snapshots for projects, construction, oil and gas, and power and water, followed by a panel discussion and Q&A. Speakers will discuss topics like project delays, supply chain issues, the outlook for different sectors, stimulus measures by governments, and revised forecasts for contract awards in 2020.

1. Richard Thompson, Editorial Director, MEED

2. 2
AGENDA
13:00 INTRODUCTION - Richard Thompson, Editorial Director, MEED
13:10 MARKET SNAPSHOTS
- Projects market, Ed James, Director of Content & Analysis, MEED Projects
- Construction, Colin Foreman, Deputy Editor, MEED
- Oil & Gas, Indrajit Sen, Oil & Gas Editor, MEED
- Power & water, Jennifer Aguinaldo, Energy & technology Editor, MEED
13:30 PANEL DISCUSSION WITH LIVE Q&A
14:00 CLOSE
Webinar attendees can submit questions using the on-screen text field

3. 3
www.meed.com
Middle East business intelligence since 1957
www.meedprojects.com

4. 4GETTING THROUGH THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
MEED BUSINESS REVIEW
April 2020
• THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON THE MIDDLE EAST
• OUTLOOK FOR PROJECTS
• THE OIL PRICE WAR AND THE FUTURE OF OPEC
• SPECIAL REPORT ON HOTEL INVESTMENT
• UAE MARKET FOCUS
• PLUS LOTS, LOTS MORE
Available to all subscribers to meed.com in print and digital formats

5. 5Coronavirus impact on Mena projects market

6. 6COVID CONTAGION
• Dec 2019: Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China
• Feb 2020: WHO confirms pandemic
25 March 2020
• 400,000 cases globally and20,000 deaths
• 28,800 cases across the Middle East and North
Africa (Mena) region, excluding Turkey and Israel
• 2,019 deaths in the Mena region
• Iran is the worst hit country with 21,638 cases
and 258 deaths

7. 7FLATTENING THE CURVE
• Over 100 countries have introduced travel restrictions
• Airlines suspending flights
• Social distancing measures enforced across the region
• Tough curfews introduced is some countries
• Borders closed and entry to non-nationals restricted
• Schools and universities move to remote learning
• Businesses move to working from home where possible
• Emergency healthcare capacity expanded
• Major events cancelled or postponed including Olympics

8. 8ECONOMIC IMPACT
Major markets fallen about 30 per cent since the start of the year
Travel industry in quarantine. IATA estimates loss in revenues to
global airlines of $252bn, 44 per cent down on 2019
Industrial production in China fell by 13.5 per cent in the first two
months and car sales fell by 92 per cent
JP Morgan says 60 per cent of the global economy will be affected
IMF says as bad as 2008. IIF says global growth to be -1.5% in 2020
Oil prices down over 60% from $73/barrel on 3 Jan to below $27/b
Rapid recovery in H2 is possible.
It depends on effectiveness of the lockdown. It is too early to say

9. 9FINANCIAL SUPPORT
• Over $6tn of stimulus packages announced globally
• Over 50 countries have cut interest rates 15 March, US
Fed Reserve cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 0-
0.25 per cent. Reactivated quantitative easing
• 20 March, Riyadh announced SR70bn ($19bn) of support
measures in addition to SR50bn announced by Sama
• Riyadh reviewing 2020 budget and funding will be
reallocated to sectors, such as healthcare.
• 14 March, UAE Central Bank launched AED100bn ($27bn)
of credit and capital along with other measures
• 22 March, UAE approved a AED16bn ($4.4bn) of stimulus
including acceleration of infrastructure

10. 10
Fiscal balance in 2020
Middle East facing double whammy from oil collapse
Average oil prices for 2020 = $30-$45/barrel. Depends
on duration of the crisis. But most budgets set at
above $70/barrel
Sharp rise in deficits. Up to 30 per cent of GDP in GCC
Nasser Saidi estimates $160bn-$180bn of deficit
funding required in GCC in 2020
Deficit financed through borrowing and drawdown
that will see debt levels rising in the GCC
Covid-19 could jeapordise $91bn of project spending in
Middle East – MEED

11. The outlook for projects
Ed James
Director of Content & Analysis
MEED Projects

12. Still very early to say what the final impact will be – largely depends on different
scenarios for eradication of the virus. 3 potential scenarios:
• BEST - Virus largely eradicated in next 30-60 days. Normal life to resume shortly
after
• WORST - Virus proves hard to eradicate and concerns of a second-wave ensure the
lockdown continues to the end of the year or longer until vaccine is rolled out
• UNKNOWN – The ‘Trump’ option is adopted where a short lockdown is followed by a
lifting of restrictions to maintain economic performance on the basis that this is the
‘least worst’ option
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW

13. The Positives
 The loan-to-deposit ratio for property has
been reduced to 80%
 Some contract/tender/award activity
continues
 Project delivery in some countries proceeds
 A $34bn stimulus package in UAE including
an ‘acceleration in projects’
 A $32bn stimulus in KSA, $21bn in Oman,
$23bn in Oman
 An understanding that project spending must
be maintained and is within govts control
The Negatives
 Global recession and credit crisis probable
 Demand for property will be hit, tourism and
retail will also suffer
 Low oil prices mean govt spending in the
medium term will reduce
 Short term business performance will be very
painful. Not all companies will survive and jobs
will be lost
 Dependency on public sector projects will
increase
 KSA already announced $13bn budget cut,
ministries told to cut budget by 20-30%
 Adnoc has told contractors and suppliers it is
reviewing relationships to cut costs
WHAT WE DO KNOW
The GCC projects market has been in slump particularly in Dubai due to the fall in oil prices since 2014.
With oil now at $30 a barrel, the outlook was already uncertain at best.

14. 92809
112395
95141
79765
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Total
2019 Actual Original 2020 forecast Revised 2020 forecast (3 month lockdown) Revised 2020 forecast (6 month lockdown)
In a base case (30-90 day disruption) contract awards forecast declines 15%
compared with original forecast
In worst case (>90 day disruption) contract award forecast is for 29%
reduction compared with original forecast
Revised Forecasts for Contract Awards in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, 2020 ($m)
Source: MEED Projects

15. Construction
outlook
Colin Foreman
Deputy Editor
MEED

16. 16
Construction
Crisis
• Work on site continues despite supply chain and manpower concerns
• Project delays expected as virus spreads leading to questions about extensions
of time and prolongation costs
• Support needed to finance delays
• Projects put on hold
• Tendering may continue but slowdown in awards expected
Post Crisis
• Will projects restart?
• Cost pressures?
• Stimulus spending on new projects?
• Private sector investment?
• Competitor landscape?

17. Oil & Gas
Indrajit Sen
Oil & Gas Editor
MEED

18. 18
Oil & Gas – the macro picture
 Majority of analysts have revised down their predictions for 2020 average oil
prices by $10 a barrel, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to batter demand.
 New forecasts for Brent and WTI prices are $30 and $25 a barrel, respectively.
 Coronavirus outbreak has wiped off about 10 million b/d of global oil demand,
with China registering a 3.1 million b/d decline in crude demand.
 As more countries go into lockdown mode, global oil demand could plunge by
as much as 14 million b/d during April and May.
 The market also has to account for an additional supply of 2 to 4 million b/d from
the Opec+ members set to come online from 1 April, which equals to 15% or
more of global production.
 Oil prices have somewhat stabilised on the back of optimism being generated by
reports about US-Saudi efforts to balance market.
 Industrial activity in China is now ramping back up after coronavirus-related
stoppages in February 2020.

19. 19
Oil & Gas – Contrasting impact
 Saudi Aramco and Adnoc have announced April production volumes of 12.3
million b/d and 4 million b/d, respectively.
 While the impact of the move will be detrimental for oil prices, it implies both
NOCs would need contractors’ support to ramp up and sustain output.
 Both Aramco and Adnoc are also accelerating plans to expand spare production
capacity to 13 million b/d and 5 million b/d respectively.
 The drive by both firms to achieve these targets would result in a robust projects
pipeline, presenting significant business opportunities for the supply chain.
 Low oil prices has compelled Aramco to trim its 2020 capex to $25-$30bn, but it
remains a considerably high budget. Long-term spending plans remain intact.
 Adnoc too has not made any announcement regarding reduction in spending.
 Delays in project timelines are in line with general COVID-19 related hindrances
to business, and do not imply change in project scale, scope of work or budgets.

20. Power & Water
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & Technology Editor
MEED

21. 21
Key projects and Covid-19 impacts
Sector Project Country Status
Power Ibri 2 500MW solar IPP Oman Financial close
Power Fujairah F3 CCGT IPP UAE
Awarded - financial
close set for April
Power Al-Kharsaah 800MW solar IPP Qatar
Awarded - financial
close set for April
Power Al-Dhafra 2GW solar IPP UAE
To be awarded - 2Q
2020
Power
Saudi Aramco Marjan/Tanajib
cogeneration Saudi Arabia
Conditional letter
awarded - 1Q
Power
Repdo round two (cat A and B)
- 1.47GW solar Saudi Arabia Bids evaluation
Power
Repdo round three (Cat A and
B) Saudi Arabia Prequalification
Power
Umm al-Quwain 500MW solar
IPP UAE EoI
Power Abu Dhabi PV3 UAE Study
Power MBRM fifth phase (900MW) UAE Awarded
Water Hassyan IWP UAE Bids evaluation
Water Jubail 3A Saudi Arabia Final negotiations
Water Yanbu 4 Saudi Arabia Awarded
Short-term
• Delay in project awards and execution (2-3 months)
• Shift to non-Chinese suppliers
• Review of government equity infusion
Long-term
• PPP projects will continue despite potential demand
contraction due to need to save gas costs and lower
overall sector costs
• State utilities will focus on integration issues to stabilise
grids
• Project funding (government) for EPC schemes could
be an issue if oil prices continue to decline or stay
lower than budgeted

22. 22
Planned and under way projects (MW)
MENA renewable energy (solar PV and wind) projects
by status (MW)*
GCC renewable energy (solar PV and wind) projects by
status (MW)*
15344
8750
5300
28000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Execution Bidding Prequalification Study
9,501
5,970
1,846
10,344
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Execution Bidding Prequalification Study
*Excludes masterplan capacity

23. 23
Richard Thompson, Editorial Director
richard.thompson@meed.com
@MEEDeditor
THANK YOU
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Middle East business intelligence since 1957