Dear Investors, Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the danger of recession. The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.

1. ADVICE FOR THE WISE
July 2016

2. CONTENTS
• From The CEO’s Desk
• Did You Know?
• Domestic Equity Outlook
• Domestic Debt Outlook
• Domestic Debt Strategy
• Global Equity Outlook
• Global Economy Update
• Global Debt Outlook
• Sector Outlook
• Real Estate Outlook
• Commodities
• Foreign Exchange
• What’s Trending.
• Disclaimer

3. FROM THE CEO’s DESK
Dear Investors,
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take
a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had
indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The
ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an
imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the
danger of recession.
The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was
declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks
and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to
formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.

4. Back home, the other important event which rattled the markets was Dr. Raghuram Rajan’s decision not to seek a second term as RBI
Governor. Dr. Rajan took charge at the helm of the RBI at a time when India had the dubious distinction of being one of the Fragile Five. From
the brink of a major financial crisis in September 2013, he has steered the economy ably and is regarded today as one of the best Central
Bankers in the world. If India today has a favourable macro environment, with parameters like a stable currency, low Current Account Deficit,
reasonable inflation and an overall sense of well-being with the confidence of global and domestic investors, it is due largely to the policy
measures adopted by Dr. Rajan and his team.
The silver lining during the month has of course been the onset of the monsoon. Making up for a late start, the monsoon has had a fair
distribution and has covered almost the entire country. This, along with the passing of the 7th Pay Commission by the Union Cabinet, is likely to
boost rural and urban consumption. Corporate results for the first quarter will soon start coming in and it will be interesting to see if they keep
the same momentum as the previous quarter. Going ahead, we might have to brace ourselves for some volatility on account of various global
headwinds. The time-tested technique of systematic investments should see us through this period of volatility and additionally help investors
with a 2-3 year horizon make handsome gains.

5. DID YOU KNOW
Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) is
the most expensive currency in the
world, one Kuwaiti dinar buys
US$3.31
Hong Kong is the world’s freest
economy and its global ranking is
1, because of its transparent legal
environment and
fiscal discipline.
.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of
China Ltd. is a Chinese
multinational banking company,
and the largest bank in the world
by total assets and by market
capitalization.

6. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK

7. Market View
For the month, equity markets continued with its positive run. Contrary to
expectations, mid and small caps out-performed large cap indices.
Economic green shoots, better corporate numbers and expectations of
good rainfall gave strength to the overall markets. Domestic macros had
begun on a mixed note with latest monthly CPI moving up to 5.76%
while April Industrial growth came above expectations at just 4.76%.
Higher food inflation pushed up the WPI as well as retail inflation
numbers. Early indicators suggest corporate performance to improve
further in the coming year.
As on 24th
June 2016
1 Month Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 26,397 2.00% -5.37%
CNX Nifty 8,088 1.94% -3.68%
BSE Mid Cap 11,313 2.11% 5.83%
BSE Small Cap 11,278 2.97% 1.52%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

8. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
GOVERNMENT POLICY
Administrative reforms such as FDI in 6 sectors, changes in Shops and Establishment Act, and Mining have been the icing on the
cake.

9. WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
• India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at
0.79% for May, 2016 as compared to 0.34% for the month of
April.
• Food inflation increased in the month of May by 7.88%.
Vegetables declined by 12.94%. Inflation in the fuel and
power segment was -10.86%%, while that of manufactured
products it was 0.91% in May.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
• CPI for the month of May spiked at 5.76% as compared to
5.47% in April.
• Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages rose 7.2 percent
(6.21 percent in March).
• The food prices rose by 7.55% compared to 6.32% in the
previous month.
Source – Tradingeconomics
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16
WPI CPI

10. IIP
• Industrial output in India fell to -0.8% percent year-on-year in April
of 2016, against 0.3% in March 2016.
• Manufacturing contracted 3.2%, as against -1.2% in March.
Meanwhile, the mining sector output increased by 1.6% in April
2016
GDP
• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth
quarter of the current financial year grew at 7.9% versus a
downwardly revised 7.2% for the previous quarter.
• Manufacturing sector continued to show a robust growth of 9.3%,
whereas agricultural growth rebounded and grew at 2.3%. Mining
sector witnessed a growth coming at 2.2% Y-o-Y.
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
GDP
Source – Tradingeconomics
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Apr
15
May
15
Jun
15
Jul
15
Aug
15
Sep
15
Oct
15
Nov
15
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Apr
16
IIP

11. DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK
 The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 7.43% which is 3 bps lower
than the last months close of 7.46%
 Mutual fund managers pumped in nearly Rs 43,000 crore into
the debt market since the beginning of June, taking the total to
around Rs 76,000 crore so far in the current fiscal.
 The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has
mandated the electronic book mechanism for issuance of
debt securities on a private placement basis..
As on 24th
June
2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year Change
Debt Markets
10-Yr G-Sec-
Yield
7.43 (3bps) (33bps)
Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps)
Source – Reuters
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80
9.00 G-Sec
10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield
0
100
200
300
400
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+
Corporate Bond Spreads
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years

12. DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY
SHORT TERM DEBT Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can look
at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s YTMs have
fallen to sub-9%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8.5%-11%) providing interesting
investment opportunities.
CORPORATE BOND FUNDS The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the credit
outlook and we look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be attractive
over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favorable. The current
scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of yields may not
sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating will be upgraded
that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds.
DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt and
long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after studying the
macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want to time the
market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond funds.
LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS With the likelihood of another rate cut being minimal and the uncertainty with regard to the monsoon and global
commodity prices, particularly crude oil, a rally in G-Sec yields is unlikely. Investors should start exiting their investments in
Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short term funds.

13. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK

14. As on 24th
June 2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
MSCI World 1608 -3.60% -9.69%
Hang Seng 20259 -0.53% -25.37%
S&P 500 2037 -2.55% -3.09%
Nikkei 14952 -10.77% -28.02%
GLOBAL INDICES
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei

15. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
UK voted to exit the Euro zone. It will have longer term implications and sporadic events of currency volatility. It is a long term concern that will
simmer leading to a wide spectrum of possibilities such as break up of Euro, trade uncertainties for UK, global slowdown/recession, and currency
volatility.

16. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
UNITED STATES  U.S. economic growth slowed in the first quarter but not as sharply as previously estimated, and while
there are signs of a pickup in the second quarter, analysts worry Britain's vote to leave the European
Union could hurt activity later this year.
 U.S. consumer spending rose for a second straight month in May on increased demand for automobiles
and other goods, but there are fears Britain's vote to leave the European Union could hurt confidence and
prompt households to cut back on consumption.
JAPAN
 A weak economy, deflation, massive public debt, negative interest rates and an ageing citizenry don't
seem like good reasons for a country’s currency to surge, but that’s exactly what happened to Japan’s yen
after Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged the central bank to provide ample funds to the market to
ensure liquidity and keep the wheels of economy turning in the wake of Britain's shock vote to exit the
European Union.
Source – Reuters

17. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
EUROPE  Britain's decision to leave the European Union may have a knock-on effect for the rest of the EU and long-
term uncertainty over Brexit poses a threat to the entire region's economy according to German Finance
Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
 European Union leaders met for the first time without Britain less than a week after it voted to leave,
delivering a tough message that London can access the bloc's lucrative single market only if it agrees to
allow free movement for EU workers.
EMERGING
ECONOMIES
 India approved an increase of at least 14.29 percent in salaries and pensions for about 10 million
government employees and pensioners, a move that is expected to boost consumer demand and
underpin economic growth.
 China could file suit at the World Trade Organization in order to protect its steel industry, according to the
Commerce Ministry said, as United States stated that some steel imports from China were hitting U.S.
producers.
Source – Reuters

18. GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK
 Government bonds worldwide have gained 2.3 percent in June, the
most since December 2008, according to Bank of America Corp.
index data. The effective index yield is down to 0.5 percent, from
0.74 percent at the end of May
 The New Zealand benchmark 10-year government bond fell to all-
time low on Tuesday, following cues from global debt market. Also,
investors were cautious ahead of potentially seismic events this
month including Britain’s referendum on European Union
membership, Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve meeting.
 The Canadian bonds gained on Monday, following global debt
prices as investors remain uncertain about the global economic
outlook and the near-term path of BoE and US interest rates. Also,
weak crude oil prices drove investors towards safe-haven buying.
Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield
1 Month
Change
AAA
Germany -0.13% (27 bps)
Hong Kong 1.00% (33 bps)
Sweden 0.30% (51 bps)
Switzerland -0.58% (26 bps)
AA+ USA 1.41% (43 bps)
AA-
China 2.88% (7 bps)
Japan -0.25% (14 bps)
Source – Reuters

19. SECTOR OUTLOOK

20. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Automobiles
Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base
effect and expected normal monsoons.
Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets.
BFSI
Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on
higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.
FMCG
We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments,
as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in
raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons.
E&C
Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery.
Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.

21. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
IT/ITES
Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume
growth in the EU regions
Power Utilities
Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in
near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run.
Cement
Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back
in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings.
Healthcare
Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth
continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.

22. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Energy
Crude prices at 6 month high though at substantially lower on annual basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive.
Trend expected to continue.
Telecom
Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal
returns on capital. Further, expected launch of R-Jio at competitive prices in Q2FY17 will have negative implications.
Metals
Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months
with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.

23. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

24. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted
restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry
of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to
receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have
remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I
markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in
demand with sluggish market sentiments.
With improvements in infrastructure across cities like
Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being
offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for
choice. The Demand drivers have increased
nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier
availability of credit.
RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II

25. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong
demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai
has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital
values have also been on rise in major markets except in
NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption
volumes have been surpassing new completions
consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the
vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.
Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease
rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at
their current levels in the commercial asset class.
COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II

26. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls
continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B,
premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing
activity. International brands were seen increasing their
footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in
demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai
remained stagnant.
The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street
retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that
rentals have remained stagnant in this space.
RETAIL Tier I Tier II

27. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities
and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in
purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower
ticket size and better marketing by developers
/aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for
warehousing with the growth of E commerce.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established
growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation
due to low investment base in such areas.
LAND Tier I Tier II

28. COMMODITIES
GOLD
Gold has strong prospects for appreciation in the medium
term due to the long term uncertainty of Brexit from Euro. As
global currencies fluctuate and turn volatile, Gold will be the
safe haven for the next few months.
• As on 24th June, 2016 : 30,091 per 10gm
• 1 month change : 6.87%
• 1 year change : 17.66%
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
Gold

29. COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices have been hovering around $50 mark. Both
Nymex and Brent crude, from decade lows, are at a six month
high mainly on account of signs that global surplus is easing
amid declining output. However the outlook looks grim on
account of renewed concerns on global growth due to Brexit.
• As on 24th June, 2016 : $46.69 per bbl
• 1 month change : -5.70%
• 1 year change : -22.50%
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Crude

30. Currency
As on 24th
June 2015
1 Month Change 1 Year Change
USD/INR 68.01 0.84% -6.47%
GBP/INR 92.96 -5.69% 7.36%
Euro/INR 75.10 -0.14% -5.24%
Yen/INR 66.45 8.37% -22.65%
USD/Euro 0.89 0.06% 0.43%
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
• A body of global standards-setters Thursday laid out new
principles for the safer and more transparent functioning of
the world’s foreign-exchange markets, aiming to restore
trust in currency trading following incidents of misconduct
in recent years.
• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) will be maintaining a presence
in the foreign exchange market until it settles.
• India's foreign exchange reserves went down to $360.90
billion as on May 20, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.
• Nigeria's central bank is adopting a flexible foreign
exchange rate regime, Governor Godwin Emefiele said, in
a policy U-turn designed to boost exports and stave off a
recession in Africa's biggest economy.
0.84%
-5.69%
-0.14%
8.37%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN

31. WHAT’S TRENDING
BREXIT AFTERMATH
What is it?
• The people of Britain voted for a British exit, or Brexit, from the EU in a historic referendum on Thursday June 23.
• The outcome has prompted jubilant celebrations among Eurosceptics around Europe and sent shockwaves through the global economy.
Impact
• The ratings agencies Fitch and S&P have downgraded the UK's credit rating, meaning they think that lending money to the UK government is less safe
than it was before 23rd June. On top of that are the consequences of a drought, which has shrivelled the country’s hydropower generation, a critical source
of electricity.
• Britain's decision to leave the European Union has created "significant uncertainty" that will have repercussions not only for UK and Europe, but the global
economy, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
• The Brexit vote will undoubtedly embolden other EU skeptic parties, particularly in the Eurozone heart of the EU. Other exit referendums may arise in the
coming months to years. The U.K. itself may face an additional exit referendum from Scotland.
• The flight to safety away from the epicenter of this British-EU divorce will push capital away from the region and toward key safe-haven markets including
the U.S.—especially Treasuries—and to Japan. This will further lower market interest rates and raise relative currency values.
• A higher U.S. dollar and Japanese yen are negative to both economies’ export sectors. In the case of Japan, this is particularly unhelpful to its efforts to
reinflate and reinvigorate the economy after decades of deflation.
• The European Central Bank will be compelled to raise its level of intervention yet again, as risk premiums across the region rise. Among the larger
Eurozone members, Italy is in a particularly vulnerable position—now made more vulnerable. Each blow to members of the Eurozone periphery also further
make Germany’s outperformance in the Eurozone even more unsustainable.
Source – www.forbes.com, www.wikipedia.com, www.economist.com

32. DISCLAIMER
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