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MARTA Presented by: John, Keke & Ken
8.Tell the story 1.Define the problem 2.Assemble some evidence 3.Construct the alternatives 4.Select the criteria 5.Project the outcomes 6.Confront the tradeoffs 7.Decide! Policy Analysis Eight-Step Path
Background MARTA ---The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Till to FY 2007
Define the Problem ,[object Object]
Model of Local Revenue Pie Chart Sales Taxes Property Taxes Licenses Fines Charges for Services Others
Revenue for MARTA Sales Taxes Others Fares
Expenditure of MARTA
Assemble Some Evidence Sales Taxes Taxable Sales Employment Per Capita Income Inflation Population Retail Sales
Construct the Alternatives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],03 ,[object Object],01 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],02 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Select the Criteria ,[object Object]
Project the Outcomes
Decision! Average time-series data to develop trends by such techniques as proportionate change Basic averaging-ratio method with exponential smoothing or move to nonlinear regression Extrapolative and causal techniques employ bivariate or multivariate least-squares regression equations
Question ,[object Object]
Define a New Problem ,[object Object]
Stakeholders Riders 1 2 Appointed MARTA Board 3 Public Secotor Unions 4 Bondholders 5 Bond-rating Agencies
Assemble Some Evidence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Construct the Alternative Enlarge Incomes Cut  Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Select the Criteria Effectiveness Efficiency Equity Legislative
Project the Outcomes Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares Legislative Equity Efficiency Effectiveness
Confront the Tradeoff Pareto Efficiency Cardol-Hicks Standard
Decision! Enlarge Incomes Cut  Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],√
John,  Keke and Ken

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Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4