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Daily Commodity Report

                                                                                                           11th September 2012

                                                             MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) –
                    Gold         Silver        Crude
                   (5 Oct-12)   (5 Dec-12)   (19 Sep-12)
                                                             Gold opened higher at 31964 and moved further higher to touch an
 Open                 31,964        64,008        5,315      intra-day high of 32043. However, it failed to sustain higher and
                                                             moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 31851. It ended on a flat
 High                 32,043        64,614        5,354      note to close at 31907.
 Low                  31,851        63,759        5,290
                                                             The Stochastic has again moved above its average. Moreover, the
 Close                31,907        63,980        5,326      RSI is still placed above its average. Both the Stochastic and the
                                                             RSI are still placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to
 Prev. Close          31,896        63,890        5,313
                                                             selling pressure and profit taking at regular intervals. Though the
 % Change              0.03%        0.14%         0.24%      ADX line is moving higher the +DI line is moving lower, indicating
                                                             buyers are booking profits at regular intervals. MCX Gold faces
Source – MCX                                                 resistance at 31975, 32043, and 32350 while the support levels are
                                                             placed at 31467, 30837, 30428, 30340, 30179, 29668 and 28859.
                    Volume (In 000's)
                                                             Positional Call – SELL MCX GOLD (5 OCT 12) around 31900,
                   10/09/2012   08/09/2012       % Chg.      Stop Loss 32010 Target of 31500
 Gold (gms)          31,810.0      4,396.0     623.61%
                                                             MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) –
 Silver (kgs)         2,108.5        220.2     857.52%
                                                             Silver opened higher at 64008 and moved further higher to touch
 Crude (bbl)         19,666.1        552.4    3460.12%       an intra-day high of 64614. However, it failed to sustain higher and
Source – MCX
                                                             moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 63759. It ended the day
                                                             with modest gains to close at 63980.

                   Turnover (In Lacs)                        The Stochastic and the RSI are placed above their respective
                                                             averages. However, both the Stochastic and the RSI are still
                   10/09/2012   08/09/2012       % Chg.      placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to selling
                                                             pressure and profit taking at regular intervals. Though the ADX line
Gold              1,016,342.4    140,297.0     624.42%
                                                             is moving higher the +DI line is moving lower indicating buyers are
Silver            1,352,686.1    140,802.0     860.70%       booking profits at higher levels. MCX Silver faces resistance at
                                                             64060, 64154 and 64500 while the supports are placed at 61398,
Crude             1,047,673.3     29,373.0    3466.79%       60750 and 59512 levels.
Source – MCX
                                                             MCX CRUDE (19 SEPTEMBER 12) –

                Global Market (Nymex - $)                    Crude opened higher at 5315 but later moved lower to touch an
                                                             intra-day low of 5290. However, it managed to bounce back from
                   11/09/2012   10/09/2012       % Chg.      lower levels to move higher and touch an intra-day high of 5354. It
                                                             ended the day with modest gains to close at 5326.
Gold (oz)            1,731.20     1,729.20        0.12%

Silver (oz)             33.58        33.58        0.00%      The RSI is placed below its averages, which would lead to selling
WTI Crude                                                    pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its average
                        96.39        96.54       -0.16%      which would lead to buying support at lower levels. The ADX line,
(bbl)
Brent Crude
                      114.76        114.81       -0.04%
                                                             +DI line and –DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range
(bbl)                                                        bound trend. It faces resistance at 5238, 5366, 5408, 5516 and
Dollar Index            80.31        80.21        0.14%      5600 while the supports are placed at 5275, 5180, 5126 and 5093.
Source – www.cmegroup.com
                                                             NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing
                                                             Basis

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              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                    www.keynotecapitals.com
Commodity News:

 •      Assocham for examining select commods for any insider trading: Industry body Assocham has suggested a
        thorough examination of trading in five key agri commodities -- guar seeds, turmeric, black pepper, soya beans and
        barley -- to check for their possible insider trading on the NCDEX terminals. "The trade positions for each of the five
        agricultural commodities must be thoroughly examined to check for possible insider trading on the NCDEX terminals.
        The data analysis points towards price determination by a cartel, which might be hoarding and influencing the
        markets," Assocham said in a study released today. (ET)
 •      Gold eases but remains near 6-month high, eyes Fed: Gold eased on Monday as investors took profits, but the
        metal stayed near a six-month high after last week's disappointing US payrolls data boosted hopes that the Federal
        Reserve could unveil new stimulus as early as Thursday. (ET)
 •      Oil prices above $96 as market awaits US Fed meeting: The price of oil slipped to near $96 a barrel Monday after
        some soft Chinese economic figures and ahead of a U.S. central bank meeting later this week that may see more
        money injected into the U.S. economy. (ET)
 •      Coffee price skyrockets as weather affects crops: The price of coffee is skyrocketing on speculation that
        Colombia's harvest will be smaller than expected for the fourth straight year. Coffee for December delivery jumped
        10.6 cents, or 6.5 percent, to finish at $1.7365 per pound. That's the highest level since early August. Although
        Brazil's coffee crop appears headed toward a robust harvest, Colombia's crop was hampered by heavy rainfall that
        caused delays earlier in the season. Colombia could produce a smaller-than-expected crop for the fourth
        consecutive year, Barclays Capital analysts said in a report on Friday. (ET)



 Economic Calendar:

                              Tuesday                  Wednesday                   Thursday                    Friday
                              Sept 11                    Sept 12                    Sept 13                   Sept 14
                                                      Industrial Output                                          WPI Inflation
India
                                                                   data
                                                                                                              Forex Reserves



                                                         FOMC Minutes         Initial Jobless Claims        Consumer Price
US                    NFIB Small Business                                                    (Sep 8)       Index (MoM) and
                      Optimism (AUG)                                                                                    (YoY)
                                                  Preliminary ruling on      Producer Price Index         Retail Sales (MoM)
                      US Trade Balance             ESM & Fiscal Deficit               (YoY) (Aug)
                                                                            30-Year Bond Auction        Industrial Production
                                                                                                                       (MoM)
                                                     Germany CPI data          China Producer and                  Eurozone's
Global
                                                                              Import Prices (MoM)            Consumer Price
                      UK’s Trade Balance                                                     (Aug)               Index (MoM)
                                                 UK Average Earnings,         ECB Monthly Report           Japan's Industrial
                      Japan’s  Manpower               Claimant Count                                       Production (MoM)
                      Survey (4Q)                             charge                                                and (YoY)
                                                                              ECB Consumer Price                   Eurozone's
                                                                               Index (MoM) (Aug)        Employment Change
                                                                                                                        (YoY)




                                                      Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                    www.keynotecapitals.com
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                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                 www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report for 110912

  • 1. Daily Commodity Report 11th September 2012 MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) – Gold Silver Crude (5 Oct-12) (5 Dec-12) (19 Sep-12) Gold opened higher at 31964 and moved further higher to touch an Open 31,964 64,008 5,315 intra-day high of 32043. However, it failed to sustain higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 31851. It ended on a flat High 32,043 64,614 5,354 note to close at 31907. Low 31,851 63,759 5,290 The Stochastic has again moved above its average. Moreover, the Close 31,907 63,980 5,326 RSI is still placed above its average. Both the Stochastic and the RSI are still placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to Prev. Close 31,896 63,890 5,313 selling pressure and profit taking at regular intervals. Though the % Change 0.03% 0.14% 0.24% ADX line is moving higher the +DI line is moving lower, indicating buyers are booking profits at regular intervals. MCX Gold faces Source – MCX resistance at 31975, 32043, and 32350 while the support levels are placed at 31467, 30837, 30428, 30340, 30179, 29668 and 28859. Volume (In 000's) Positional Call – SELL MCX GOLD (5 OCT 12) around 31900, 10/09/2012 08/09/2012 % Chg. Stop Loss 32010 Target of 31500 Gold (gms) 31,810.0 4,396.0 623.61% MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) – Silver (kgs) 2,108.5 220.2 857.52% Silver opened higher at 64008 and moved further higher to touch Crude (bbl) 19,666.1 552.4 3460.12% an intra-day high of 64614. However, it failed to sustain higher and Source – MCX moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 63759. It ended the day with modest gains to close at 63980. Turnover (In Lacs) The Stochastic and the RSI are placed above their respective averages. However, both the Stochastic and the RSI are still 10/09/2012 08/09/2012 % Chg. placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to selling pressure and profit taking at regular intervals. Though the ADX line Gold 1,016,342.4 140,297.0 624.42% is moving higher the +DI line is moving lower indicating buyers are Silver 1,352,686.1 140,802.0 860.70% booking profits at higher levels. MCX Silver faces resistance at 64060, 64154 and 64500 while the supports are placed at 61398, Crude 1,047,673.3 29,373.0 3466.79% 60750 and 59512 levels. Source – MCX MCX CRUDE (19 SEPTEMBER 12) – Global Market (Nymex - $) Crude opened higher at 5315 but later moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 5290. However, it managed to bounce back from 11/09/2012 10/09/2012 % Chg. lower levels to move higher and touch an intra-day high of 5354. It ended the day with modest gains to close at 5326. Gold (oz) 1,731.20 1,729.20 0.12% Silver (oz) 33.58 33.58 0.00% The RSI is placed below its averages, which would lead to selling WTI Crude pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its average 96.39 96.54 -0.16% which would lead to buying support at lower levels. The ADX line, (bbl) Brent Crude 114.76 114.81 -0.04% +DI line and –DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range (bbl) bound trend. It faces resistance at 5238, 5366, 5408, 5516 and Dollar Index 80.31 80.21 0.14% 5600 while the supports are placed at 5275, 5180, 5126 and 5093. Source – www.cmegroup.com NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing Basis Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Commodity News: • Assocham for examining select commods for any insider trading: Industry body Assocham has suggested a thorough examination of trading in five key agri commodities -- guar seeds, turmeric, black pepper, soya beans and barley -- to check for their possible insider trading on the NCDEX terminals. "The trade positions for each of the five agricultural commodities must be thoroughly examined to check for possible insider trading on the NCDEX terminals. The data analysis points towards price determination by a cartel, which might be hoarding and influencing the markets," Assocham said in a study released today. (ET) • Gold eases but remains near 6-month high, eyes Fed: Gold eased on Monday as investors took profits, but the metal stayed near a six-month high after last week's disappointing US payrolls data boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve could unveil new stimulus as early as Thursday. (ET) • Oil prices above $96 as market awaits US Fed meeting: The price of oil slipped to near $96 a barrel Monday after some soft Chinese economic figures and ahead of a U.S. central bank meeting later this week that may see more money injected into the U.S. economy. (ET) • Coffee price skyrockets as weather affects crops: The price of coffee is skyrocketing on speculation that Colombia's harvest will be smaller than expected for the fourth straight year. Coffee for December delivery jumped 10.6 cents, or 6.5 percent, to finish at $1.7365 per pound. That's the highest level since early August. Although Brazil's coffee crop appears headed toward a robust harvest, Colombia's crop was hampered by heavy rainfall that caused delays earlier in the season. Colombia could produce a smaller-than-expected crop for the fourth consecutive year, Barclays Capital analysts said in a report on Friday. (ET) Economic Calendar: Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sept 11 Sept 12 Sept 13 Sept 14 Industrial Output WPI Inflation India data Forex Reserves FOMC Minutes Initial Jobless Claims Consumer Price US NFIB Small Business (Sep 8) Index (MoM) and Optimism (AUG) (YoY) Preliminary ruling on Producer Price Index Retail Sales (MoM) US Trade Balance ESM & Fiscal Deficit (YoY) (Aug) 30-Year Bond Auction Industrial Production (MoM) Germany CPI data China Producer and Eurozone's Global Import Prices (MoM) Consumer Price UK’s Trade Balance (Aug) Index (MoM) UK Average Earnings, ECB Monthly Report Japan's Industrial Japan’s Manpower Claimant Count Production (MoM) Survey (4Q) charge and (YoY) ECB Consumer Price Eurozone's Index (MoM) (Aug) Employment Change (YoY) Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com