The daily commodity report summarizes the movement of gold, silver, and crude oil on the MCX exchange on September 26, 2012. It notes that gold and silver closed slightly lower while crude oil closed marginally lower. The technical indicators for all three commodities show selling pressure, though stochastic indicators are in oversold zones, which could lead to short-term rebounds. The report provides resistance and support price levels for gold, silver, and crude oil and recommends a short position on silver.

1. Daily Commodity Report
26th September 2012
MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) –
Gold Silver Crude
(5 Oct-12) (5 Dec-12) (19 Oct-12) Gold opened higher at 31478 and moved further higher to touch an
Open 31,478 62,599 4,914 intra-day high of 31520. However, it failed to sustain higher and
moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 31360. It ended the day
High 31,520 63,140 4,979
with marginal losses to close at 31400.
Low 31,360 62,112 4,884
The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective
Close 31,400 62,314 4,895 averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the
Prev. Close 31,433 62,412 4,902 Stochastic is also placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to
short covering at lower levels. The ADX line, -DI line and +DI line
% Change -0.10% -0.16% -0.14%
are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX Gold
Source – MCX faces resistance at 31467, 31937, 32100, 32393 and 32421 while
the support levels are placed at 30837, 30428, 30340, 30179,
Volume (In 000's) 29668 and 28859.
25/09/2012 24/09/2012 % Chg.
MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) –
Gold (gms) 28,580.0 37,034.0 -22.83%
Silver opened lower at 62599 but managed to move higher to touch
Silver (kgs) 1,854.6 2,073.6 -10.56% an intra-day high of 63140. However, it failed to sustain higher and
Crude (bbl) 23,109.8 19,174.8 20.52% moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 62112. It ended the day
with modest losses to close at 62314.
Source – MCX
The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective
Turnover (In Lacs) averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the
Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to
25/09/2012 24/09/2012 % Chg.
short covering at lower levels. The ADX line, -DI line and +DI line
Gold 899,046.9 1,162,031.6 -22.63% are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX Silver
faces resistance at 64600, 65723, 66000 and 67000 while the
Silver 1,161,764.5 1,294,559.7 -10.26% supports are placed at 62273, 61912, 61398, 60750 and 59512
Crude 1,142,121.2 942,964.2 21.12% levels.
Source – MCX Positional Call – SELL MCX SILVER (5 DECEMBER 12) around
63761, Stop Loss 64825 Target of 61400
Global Market (Nymex - $)
26/09/2012 25/09/2012 % Chg. MCX CRUDE (19 OCTOBER 12) –
Gold (oz) 1,766.50 1,766.40 0.01% Crude opened higher at 4914 and moved further higher to touch an
intra-day high of 4979. However, it failed to sustain higher and
Silver (oz) 34.04 33.95 0.26%
moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 4884. It ended the day
Crude (bbl) 91.23 91.37 -0.15% with marginal losses to close at 4895.
Dollar Index 110.17 110.45 -0.25%
The RSI and the Stochastic are placed below their respective
Source – www.cmegroup.com averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, both the
RSI and Stochastic are placed in the over sold zone, which would
lead to intermediate bouts of short covering and buying support at
lower levels. Though, the ADX line is moving higher, the –DI line is
moving lower indicating sellers are covering shorts at regular
intervals. It faces resistance at 4950, 5050, 5180, 5275 and 5354
while the supports are placed at 4892, 4692 and 4578.
NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing
Basis
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2. Commodity News:
Brent climbs above $110, Iran tensions in focus
Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on Tuesday, recovering from a more than 1% drop in the previous session,
as escalating tensions surrounding Iran offset concerns about weak demand in a still-fragile global economy.
Gold edges up; central banks add to bullion holdings in July and August
Gold edged higher on Tuesday, defying a steady dollar, following data that showed central banks added to their bullion
holdings in July and August, led by South Korea and Paraguay. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,766.84 an ounce by 1200
GMT. The price has risen by 4.6% so far in September and is on course for a fourth consecutive monthly gain. The
rise has been sustained by anticipation that the US Federal Reserve will keep credit flowing through the economy and
interest rates low by buying government bonds.
Price of molasses spikes on cane shortage fears
Prices of sugar cane byproducts such as molasses, alcohol and rectified spirit have increased by up to 50 per cent
anticipating a shortage of the raw material in drought-hit Maharashtra and Karnataka. Molasses, which is used in
making alcohol and rectified spirit, is one of the main byproducts of sugar production. Its price has increased by 50% in
the last six weeks and 100% in the last four months.
Economic Calendar:
Countries / Wednesday Thursday Friday Monday
Regions 26/Sep 27/Sep 28/Sep 01/Oct
Federal Fiscal Deficit,
India
INR (Aug)
External Debt (Q2)
FX Reserves, USD
(Sep 16)
Core Personal
MBA Mortgage
Durable Goods Orders Consumption Markit Manufacturing
US Applications (Sep
(Aug) Expenditure - Prices PMI (Sep)
21)
Index (YoY) (Aug)
New Home Sales Gross Domestic Product Chicago Purchasing Construction Spending
(MoM) (Aug) Annualized (Q2) Managers' Index (Sep) (MoM) (Aug)
EIA Crude Oil
Initial Jobless Claims
Stocks change (Sep
(Sep 22)
21)
Euro Consumer China HSBC
EUR Unemployment UK Halifax House
Global Price Index (MoM) Manufacturing PMI
Change (Sep) Prices (3m/YoY) (Sep)
(Sep) (Sep)
Spain Purchasing
Euro Retail Sales EUR M3 Money Supply France Gross Domestic
Manager Index
(MoM) (Aug) (3m) (Aug) Product (YoY) (Q2)
Manufacturing (Sep)
Japan Foreign bond GBP Gross Domestic China Real Retail Sales
investment (Sep 21) Product (QoQ) (Q2) (YoY) (Aug)
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www.keynotecapitals.com

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