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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                 1st August 2012
         Indices *          Close          % Chg.
 BSE SENSEX                17236.18          0.54
                                                              Follow Up buying support needed
 S&P CNX NIFTY              5229.00          0.56
                                                       The domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. The over all
 NIFTY AUG. FUT.             5240.55         0.46
                                                       trend remained range bound ahead of RBI’s monetary policy
 India VIX                   16.01           -3.55     announcement. However, the markets witnessed a sharp fall
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                 as RBI failed to announce any rate cut. The markets
                                                       managed to recover in the afternoon session on back of good
                 Level 1    Level 2         Level 3
                                                       European cues, resulting in a sharp pull back. However, the
Support           5104       5047            4950
                                                       markets once again failed to cross the 5250 resistance level,
Resistance        5250       5333            5379      which continues to remain a stumbling block. The markets
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                  ended the day with moderate gains to close near the highs
50 Day SMA                  5119.42
                                                       for the day. The top gainers for the day were DLF, Bharti
                                                       Airtel, Hindalco, Sesa Goa, HDFC, GAIL, BPCL, Coal India,
100 Day SMA                 5152.47
                                                       PNB and Rel. Infra.
200 Day SMA                 5104.57        ◄Critical
                                                       Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst
   Market Breadth *          BSE             NSE
                                                       higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets.
Advances                     1435             760
                                                       The global market cues are divergent. The domestic
Declines                     1296             676      markets are likely to witness a flat opening. The
Same                          135               87     prevailing technical positives still hold good are
Total                        2866            1523      triggering buying support. The RSI, KST and Stochastic
A/D Ratio                   1.10 : 1        1.12 : 1   remain placed above their respective averages.
                                                       Moreover, the KST has moved in the positive territory.
             Volume (Lacs Shares)      *               The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day
               31/07/12     30/07/12        % Chg.     SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA is
BSE              1946        1777            9.51      placed above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positives
NSE              6147        5334            15.24     would lead to intermediate bouts of buying support.
Total            8093        7111            13.81     However, the prevailing technical negatives continue to
                                                       hold good. The Stochastic has moved in the over bought
             Turnover ( ` Crores)      *               zone due to lack of depth on the bourses. The MACD
               31/07/12     30/07/12        % Chg.     remains placed in the negative and is also placed below
BSE             2037.53     1748.49          16.53     its average. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed
NSE            10839.41     9229.16          17.45
                                                       below its 100-day SMA. These negative technical
                                                       conditions would prompt profit taking at higher levels.
NSE F&O        113706.57   80960.69          40.45
                                                       The ADX line, the +DI line and the –DI line are moving
Total          126583.51   91938.34          37.68
                                                       sideways, indicating a range bound trend. The market
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)         *          sentiment remains tentative as Nifty remains placed
               31/07/12     30/07/12        % Chg.
                                                       below the 5250 resistance level. Now it is important that
                                                       the markets witness follow up buying support at higher
Index Fut.      517289      396318           30.52
                                                       levels for the Nifty to move higher and test the 5333
Stock Fut.      527248      482377           9.30
                                                       resistance level. The markets would witness intermediate
Index Opt.     3069124      2058302          49.11     bouts of volatility. In the meanwhile the markets would
Stock Opt.      231884      186876           24.08     take cues from the Rupee, global markets and the crude
Total          4345545      3123873          33.80     prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5104, 5047,
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE
                                                       5000, 4950 and 4859. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5250,
                                                       5333, 5379 and 5464 levels.
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                  Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                              Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                                th
                     The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                            www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5
                                    (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                   Stop
                                                     Initiation      Stop          Loss                   Target
       Stock             Close         Action          Price        Loss *          (%)      Target        (%)         Remarks
ACC                     1324.20       Buy Above           1330         1310         1.50       1375          3.38
Asian Paints            3642.30       Buy Above           3645        3585          1.65       3777          3.62
Bajaj Holdings           777.00       Buy Above            779          765         1.80        810          3.98
Cipla                     338.60   Buy Above            340             333         2.06        355          4.41
 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.


                                                            Intra-day Resistance                      Intra-day Support
       Indices           Close         Pivot Point         R1       R2         R3                S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                  17236               17165      17325      17414          17664       17076         16915       16665
S&P CNX NIFTY                5229                 5206       5258       5286          5367         5177         5125        5045
NIFTY AUG. FUT.              5241                 5219       5269       5298          5377         5190         5140        5061




                                           Stocks To Watch Out Today
ACC, Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, Bajaj Holdings, Bombay Dying, CESC, Cipla, Coal India, Divis Labs, DLF, Essar oil,
Federal Bank, FT, Grasim, GSPL, HDFC, HOECL, IDFC, Indian Hotels, India Cements, Infosys Tech; IOC, Jet Airways, LIC
Hsg; Lupin, Oriental Bank, Powergrid, Punj Lloyd, Reliance, SCI, Sesa Goa, Siemens, Sterlite, Sun Pharma, Tat Global, Tata
Motors, Tata Motors DVR, Tata Steel, TCS, Voltas, Yes Bank, ZEEL
Balrampur Chini, Bharti Airtel, DCHL, Glaxo, Havells, Hexaware, Jindal Saw, Jubilant Food


                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                              th
                   The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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                 The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                       www.keynotecapitals.com

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  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 1st August 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. BSE SENSEX 17236.18 0.54 Follow Up buying support needed S&P CNX NIFTY 5229.00 0.56 The domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. The over all NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5240.55 0.46 trend remained range bound ahead of RBI’s monetary policy India VIX 16.01 -3.55 announcement. However, the markets witnessed a sharp fall S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels as RBI failed to announce any rate cut. The markets managed to recover in the afternoon session on back of good Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 European cues, resulting in a sharp pull back. However, the Support 5104 5047 4950 markets once again failed to cross the 5250 resistance level, Resistance 5250 5333 5379 which continues to remain a stumbling block. The markets Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY ended the day with moderate gains to close near the highs 50 Day SMA 5119.42 for the day. The top gainers for the day were DLF, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, Sesa Goa, HDFC, GAIL, BPCL, Coal India, 100 Day SMA 5152.47 PNB and Rel. Infra. 200 Day SMA 5104.57 ◄Critical Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst Market Breadth * BSE NSE higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets. Advances 1435 760 The global market cues are divergent. The domestic Declines 1296 676 markets are likely to witness a flat opening. The Same 135 87 prevailing technical positives still hold good are Total 2866 1523 triggering buying support. The RSI, KST and Stochastic A/D Ratio 1.10 : 1 1.12 : 1 remain placed above their respective averages. Moreover, the KST has moved in the positive territory. Volume (Lacs Shares) * The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day 31/07/12 30/07/12 % Chg. SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA is BSE 1946 1777 9.51 placed above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positives NSE 6147 5334 15.24 would lead to intermediate bouts of buying support. Total 8093 7111 13.81 However, the prevailing technical negatives continue to hold good. The Stochastic has moved in the over bought Turnover ( ` Crores) * zone due to lack of depth on the bourses. The MACD 31/07/12 30/07/12 % Chg. remains placed in the negative and is also placed below BSE 2037.53 1748.49 16.53 its average. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed NSE 10839.41 9229.16 17.45 below its 100-day SMA. These negative technical conditions would prompt profit taking at higher levels. NSE F&O 113706.57 80960.69 40.45 The ADX line, the +DI line and the –DI line are moving Total 126583.51 91938.34 37.68 sideways, indicating a range bound trend. The market F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * sentiment remains tentative as Nifty remains placed 31/07/12 30/07/12 % Chg. below the 5250 resistance level. Now it is important that the markets witness follow up buying support at higher Index Fut. 517289 396318 30.52 levels for the Nifty to move higher and test the 5333 Stock Fut. 527248 482377 9.30 resistance level. The markets would witness intermediate Index Opt. 3069124 2058302 49.11 bouts of volatility. In the meanwhile the markets would Stock Opt. 231884 186876 24.08 take cues from the Rupee, global markets and the crude Total 4345545 3123873 33.80 prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5104, 5047, NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE 5000, 4950 and 4859. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5250, 5333, 5379 and 5464 levels. Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks ACC 1324.20 Buy Above 1330 1310 1.50 1375 3.38 Asian Paints 3642.30 Buy Above 3645 3585 1.65 3777 3.62 Bajaj Holdings 777.00 Buy Above 779 765 1.80 810 3.98 Cipla 338.60 Buy Above 340 333 2.06 355 4.41 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 17236 17165 17325 17414 17664 17076 16915 16665 S&P CNX NIFTY 5229 5206 5258 5286 5367 5177 5125 5045 NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5241 5219 5269 5298 5377 5190 5140 5061 Stocks To Watch Out Today ACC, Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, Bajaj Holdings, Bombay Dying, CESC, Cipla, Coal India, Divis Labs, DLF, Essar oil, Federal Bank, FT, Grasim, GSPL, HDFC, HOECL, IDFC, Indian Hotels, India Cements, Infosys Tech; IOC, Jet Airways, LIC Hsg; Lupin, Oriental Bank, Powergrid, Punj Lloyd, Reliance, SCI, Sesa Goa, Siemens, Sterlite, Sun Pharma, Tat Global, Tata Motors, Tata Motors DVR, Tata Steel, TCS, Voltas, Yes Bank, ZEEL Balrampur Chini, Bharti Airtel, DCHL, Glaxo, Havells, Hexaware, Jindal Saw, Jubilant Food Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com