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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                              2nd January 2013
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                  Markets inch closer to a breakout
 BSE SENSEX                    19580.81             0.79
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5950.85             0.77
                                                              Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic
                                                              markets witnessed a gap up opening. Sustained buying
 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.              6007.50             0.94
                                                              support was witnessed in index heavyweight stocks, which
 India VIX                        13.69             -8.42
                                                              also led to short covering helping the Nifty Futures cross the
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        6000 level. However, markets failed to capitalize on morning
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        gains on back of profit taking, which was observed in the
Support           5885          5816            5747
                                                              afternoon session. However the markets managed to sustain
                                                              above the 6000 level. The markets ended the day with
Resistance        5966          6135            6313
                                                              moderate gains to close near the highs for the day. The top
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         gainers for the day were reliance Infra, Jindal Steel, Hindalco,
50 Day SMA                     5768.53        ◄Positive       PNB, Tata Steel, DLF, Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank and SBI.
100 Day SMA                    5627.69
                                                              Technically, the market breadth remained robust amidst
200 Day SMA                    5387.23
                                                              higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets.
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           The prevailing technical positive conditions helped the
Advances                            1930               862
                                                              markets move higher inching closer to a breakout. The
Declines                             977               282
                                                              RSI and KST have moved above their respective
                                                              averages. Moreover, the Stochastic is already placed
Same                                 134                 41
                                                              above its average. Moreover, the MACD and KST are also
Total                               3041             1185
                                                              placed in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed
A/D Ratio                        1.98 : 1          3.06 : 1   above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s
                                                              100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the
               01/01/13        31/12/12        % Chg.
                                                              ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive conditions are
BSE                    2064         2190             -5.75
                                                              likely to help the markets move higher to test the 5965
NSE                    5883         5536              6.26    resistance level. However, the prevailing technical
Total                  7947         7726              2.85    negatives still hold good and are likely to weigh on the
                                                              market sentiment at higher levels. The negative
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good.
               01/01/13        31/12/12        % Chg.         The MACD is still placed below its average. These
BSE                  1860.90     1781.61              4.45    negative technical conditions would lead to selling
NSE                  8189.13     7546.93              8.51    pressure at higher levels. Though the +DI line is placed
NSE F&O          74896.83       48894.61            53.18     above the –DI line, the ADX line is moving sideways
Total            84946.86       58223.15            45.90     indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment
                                                              remains cautious as the Nifty nears the 5966 resistance
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              level. Now it is important that the Nifty witnesses follow
               01/01/13        31/12/12        % Chg.         up buying support at higher levels for the Nifty to test the
Index Fut.           182009      119420             52.41     5966 level and move above it. In the meanwhile the
Stock Fut.           349768      249325             40.29     markets would take cues from the global markets, Rupee
Index Opt.        1750713       1116099             56.86
                                                              and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed
                                                              at 5885, 5816, 5747 and 5665. The Nifty faces resistance at
Stock Opt.           145343      119926             21.19
                                                              5966, 6135 and 6313 levels.
Total             2427833       1604770             41.13

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                    Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                    Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                 Stop
                                                Initiation        Stop           Loss
     Stock            Close          Action       Price          Loss *           (%)           Target          Target (%)   Remarks
AB Nuvo              1115.45     Buy Above           1117.00     1101.50           1.39            1151               3.04
Allahabad Bank         174.70    Buy Above            175.50      173.00           1.42             181               3.13
Andhra Bank            122.00    Buy Above            122.50      120.00           2.04             128               4.49
                                                                                                                             TGT of
                                                                                                                             330
                                                                                                                             Achieved
                                                                                                                             given Buy
                                                                                                                             @ 318 on
CESC                  320.25   Buy Above          325.00    313.75                 3.46             350               7.69   31/12/12
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.



                                                            Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
      Indices            Close         Pivot Point         R1       R2         R3                   S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                  19581             19571        19633      19686             19801        19519           19456      19342
S&P CNX NIFTY                 5951             5950            5965       5979           6007            5936         5921       5893
NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.             6008             5975            5991       5975           5975            5991         5975       5975




                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
             The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
Stocks To Watch Out Today
AB Nuvo, ACC, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, BoB, BoI, Bata, BHEL, Biocon, Bombay Dying, Canara Bank, CBI, CESC,
Coal India, Crompton Greaves, DCB, Delta Corp; Dena Bank, DLF, GMR Infra, Grasim, HDIL, Hindalco, IDBI, Indian Hotels,
India Cement, Indian Bank, IOB, IVRCL Infra, JSW Energy, M&M, Maruti, Max India, MRF, OnMobile, OBC, NCC, Pantaloon
Retail, PFC, PNB, PTC, Punj Lloyd, REC, Reliance Capital, Rel. Infra, Renuka, RPower, SBI, Sesa Goa, South Indian Bank,
Tata Chemicals, Tata Coffee, Tata Comm; Tata Motors, Tata Power, Tata Steel, Titan, TTK Prestige, UCO Bank, Ultratech
Cemco, Uniphos, Unitech, Vijaya Bank, VIP, Voltas, Yes Bank
Piramal Healthcare




NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average



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                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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                                                        www.keynotecapitals.com

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Daily Technical Outlook for Indian Markets

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 2nd January 2013 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets inch closer to a breakout BSE SENSEX 19580.81 0.79 S&P CNX NIFTY 5950.85 0.77 Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic markets witnessed a gap up opening. Sustained buying NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 6007.50 0.94 support was witnessed in index heavyweight stocks, which India VIX 13.69 -8.42 also led to short covering helping the Nifty Futures cross the S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels 6000 level. However, markets failed to capitalize on morning Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 gains on back of profit taking, which was observed in the Support 5885 5816 5747 afternoon session. However the markets managed to sustain above the 6000 level. The markets ended the day with Resistance 5966 6135 6313 moderate gains to close near the highs for the day. The top Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY gainers for the day were reliance Infra, Jindal Steel, Hindalco, 50 Day SMA 5768.53 ◄Positive PNB, Tata Steel, DLF, Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank and SBI. 100 Day SMA 5627.69 Technically, the market breadth remained robust amidst 200 Day SMA 5387.23 higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets. Market Breadth * BSE NSE The prevailing technical positive conditions helped the Advances 1930 862 markets move higher inching closer to a breakout. The Declines 977 282 RSI and KST have moved above their respective averages. Moreover, the Stochastic is already placed Same 134 41 above its average. Moreover, the MACD and KST are also Total 3041 1185 placed in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed A/D Ratio 1.98 : 1 3.06 : 1 above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Volume (Lacs Shares) * The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the 01/01/13 31/12/12 % Chg. ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive conditions are BSE 2064 2190 -5.75 likely to help the markets move higher to test the 5965 NSE 5883 5536 6.26 resistance level. However, the prevailing technical Total 7947 7726 2.85 negatives still hold good and are likely to weigh on the market sentiment at higher levels. The negative Turnover ( ` Crores) * divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good. 01/01/13 31/12/12 % Chg. The MACD is still placed below its average. These BSE 1860.90 1781.61 4.45 negative technical conditions would lead to selling NSE 8189.13 7546.93 8.51 pressure at higher levels. Though the +DI line is placed NSE F&O 74896.83 48894.61 53.18 above the –DI line, the ADX line is moving sideways Total 84946.86 58223.15 45.90 indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment remains cautious as the Nifty nears the 5966 resistance F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * level. Now it is important that the Nifty witnesses follow 01/01/13 31/12/12 % Chg. up buying support at higher levels for the Nifty to test the Index Fut. 182009 119420 52.41 5966 level and move above it. In the meanwhile the Stock Fut. 349768 249325 40.29 markets would take cues from the global markets, Rupee Index Opt. 1750713 1116099 56.86 and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5885, 5816, 5747 and 5665. The Nifty faces resistance at Stock Opt. 145343 119926 21.19 5966, 6135 and 6313 levels. Total 2427833 1604770 41.13 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks AB Nuvo 1115.45 Buy Above 1117.00 1101.50 1.39 1151 3.04 Allahabad Bank 174.70 Buy Above 175.50 173.00 1.42 181 3.13 Andhra Bank 122.00 Buy Above 122.50 120.00 2.04 128 4.49 TGT of 330 Achieved given Buy @ 318 on CESC 320.25 Buy Above 325.00 313.75 3.46 350 7.69 31/12/12 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19581 19571 19633 19686 19801 19519 19456 19342 S&P CNX NIFTY 5951 5950 5965 5979 6007 5936 5921 5893 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 6008 5975 5991 5975 5975 5991 5975 5975 Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Stocks To Watch Out Today AB Nuvo, ACC, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, BoB, BoI, Bata, BHEL, Biocon, Bombay Dying, Canara Bank, CBI, CESC, Coal India, Crompton Greaves, DCB, Delta Corp; Dena Bank, DLF, GMR Infra, Grasim, HDIL, Hindalco, IDBI, Indian Hotels, India Cement, Indian Bank, IOB, IVRCL Infra, JSW Energy, M&M, Maruti, Max India, MRF, OnMobile, OBC, NCC, Pantaloon Retail, PFC, PNB, PTC, Punj Lloyd, REC, Reliance Capital, Rel. Infra, Renuka, RPower, SBI, Sesa Goa, South Indian Bank, Tata Chemicals, Tata Coffee, Tata Comm; Tata Motors, Tata Power, Tata Steel, Titan, TTK Prestige, UCO Bank, Ultratech Cemco, Uniphos, Unitech, Vijaya Bank, VIP, Voltas, Yes Bank Piramal Healthcare NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com