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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                            4th February 2013
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                           Nifty slips below 6000
 BSE SENSEX                    19781.19             -0.57
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5998.90             -0.59
                                                              Mirroring the inconclusive global market cues the domestic
                                                              markets witnessed a flat opening. The markets moved higher
 NIFTY FEB 13 FUT.              6036.10             -0.51
                                                              in the morning trade. However, lack of follow up buying
 India VIX                        13.76             -2.61
                                                              support at higher levels saw the markets struggling to sustain
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        higher. Selling pressure increased in the afternoon trade as
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        markets showed no signs of resilience against selling
Support           5966          5885            5816
                                                              pressure. The markets ended the day with modest losses to
                                                              close near the lows for the day. The top losers for the day
Resistance        6158          6313            6358
                                                              were JP Associates, DLF, Bharti Airtel, Ambuja Cements,
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         Hindalco, ONGC, HUL, Ultratech Cemco, Siemens and ICICI
50 Day SMA                     5933.44        ◄Positive       Bank.
100 Day SMA                    5787.75
                                                              Technically, the market breadth remained negative
200 Day SMA                    5474.11
                                                              amidst lower volumes. The prevailing negative technical
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           conditions continued to weigh on the market sentiment
Advances                             969               467
                                                              and continue to hold good. The negative divergence
Declines                            1179               617
                                                              pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good and remains
                                                              a sign of worry for the markets. The Stochastic, RSI, KST
Same                                 839                 55
                                                              and MACD all are placed below their respective
Total                               2987             1139
                                                              averages. These negative technical conditions would
A/D Ratio                        0.82 : 1          0.76 : 1   lead to further selling pressure. However, the prevailing
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   positive technical conditions also continue to hold good.
                                                              The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day
               01/02/13        31/01/13        % Chg.
                                                              SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains
BSE                    2330         2433             -4.23
                                                              placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the
NSE                    7594         9999            -24.06    later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These
Total                  9924       12432             -20.18    positive conditions would lead to buying support at
                                                              lower levels. The +DI line, -DI line and ADX line are
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. The
               01/02/13        31/01/13        % Chg.         market sentiment is turning negative as Nifty has slipped
BSE                  2387.03     2377.98              0.38    below psychologically important 6000 level. Now, it is
NSE              12014.88       16028.43            -25.04    important that the markets witness buying support for
NSE F&O          84995.64 227597.79                 -62.66    the Nifty to move above the psychologically important
Total            99397.55 246004.20                 -59.60    6000 level, other wise increased selling pressure is likely
                                                              to be witnessed and markets could test the 5816 support
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              level. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from
               01/02/13        31/01/13        % Chg.         the ongoing earnings season, global markets, Rupee and
Index Fut.           198318      504179             -60.67    the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at
Stock Fut.           462214     1315076             -64.85    5966, 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty faces resistance at
Index Opt.        1823007       4963179             -63.27
                                                              6158, 6313 and 6358 levels.
Stock Opt.           241836      538534             -55.09
Total             2725375       7320968             -46.95

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                    Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                               Stop
                                                    Initiation       Stop      Loss                      Target
       Stock            Close       Action            Price         Loss *      (%)          Target       (%)        Remarks
Allahabad Bank Fut      160.05     Sell Below             159       162.25        2.04           152       4.40
Andhra Bank Fut         111.90     Sell Below             112       114.25        2.47           107       4.04
Bharti Airtel Fut      330.75    Sell Below           330     334.50              1.36           320       3.03
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                            Intra-day Resistance                      Intra-day Support
      Indices            Close        Pivot Point          R1       R2         R3               S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                 19781                19828      19920       20058       20289         19690       19598       19368
S&P CNX NIFTY               5999                 6012        6040       6081          6151        5970        5942        5872
NIFTY FEB 13 FUT.           6036                 6030        6033       6030          6030        6033        6030        6030




                                         Stocks To Watch Out Today
Asian Paints, Aurobindo Pharma, BPCL, Cipla, Coal India, Dish TV, Guj. Flourochemicals, IB Realestate, Indusind Bank, IOC,
ITC, Punj Lloyd, Renuka Sugar, Sun TV, Titan, Yes Bank, ZEEL
AB Nuvo, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Bharti Airtel, Colgate, DLF, FT, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hexaware, Hindalco, ICICI Bank
Idea, Infosys Tech; Kotak Bank, KTKBank, L&T, McLeod Russel, ONGC, PTC, Tata Motors, Ultratech Cemco, Uniphos




                                                          Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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Keynote technicals daily report for 040213

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 4th February 2013 Indices * Close % Chg. Nifty slips below 6000 BSE SENSEX 19781.19 -0.57 S&P CNX NIFTY 5998.90 -0.59 Mirroring the inconclusive global market cues the domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. The markets moved higher NIFTY FEB 13 FUT. 6036.10 -0.51 in the morning trade. However, lack of follow up buying India VIX 13.76 -2.61 support at higher levels saw the markets struggling to sustain S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels higher. Selling pressure increased in the afternoon trade as Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 markets showed no signs of resilience against selling Support 5966 5885 5816 pressure. The markets ended the day with modest losses to close near the lows for the day. The top losers for the day Resistance 6158 6313 6358 were JP Associates, DLF, Bharti Airtel, Ambuja Cements, Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Hindalco, ONGC, HUL, Ultratech Cemco, Siemens and ICICI 50 Day SMA 5933.44 ◄Positive Bank. 100 Day SMA 5787.75 Technically, the market breadth remained negative 200 Day SMA 5474.11 amidst lower volumes. The prevailing negative technical Market Breadth * BSE NSE conditions continued to weigh on the market sentiment Advances 969 467 and continue to hold good. The negative divergence Declines 1179 617 pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good and remains a sign of worry for the markets. The Stochastic, RSI, KST Same 839 55 and MACD all are placed below their respective Total 2987 1139 averages. These negative technical conditions would A/D Ratio 0.82 : 1 0.76 : 1 lead to further selling pressure. However, the prevailing Volume (Lacs Shares) * positive technical conditions also continue to hold good. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day 01/02/13 31/01/13 % Chg. SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains BSE 2330 2433 -4.23 placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the NSE 7594 9999 -24.06 later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These Total 9924 12432 -20.18 positive conditions would lead to buying support at lower levels. The +DI line, -DI line and ADX line are Turnover ( ` Crores) * moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. The 01/02/13 31/01/13 % Chg. market sentiment is turning negative as Nifty has slipped BSE 2387.03 2377.98 0.38 below psychologically important 6000 level. Now, it is NSE 12014.88 16028.43 -25.04 important that the markets witness buying support for NSE F&O 84995.64 227597.79 -62.66 the Nifty to move above the psychologically important Total 99397.55 246004.20 -59.60 6000 level, other wise increased selling pressure is likely to be witnessed and markets could test the 5816 support F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * level. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from 01/02/13 31/01/13 % Chg. the ongoing earnings season, global markets, Rupee and Index Fut. 198318 504179 -60.67 the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at Stock Fut. 462214 1315076 -64.85 5966, 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty faces resistance at Index Opt. 1823007 4963179 -63.27 6158, 6313 and 6358 levels. Stock Opt. 241836 538534 -55.09 Total 2725375 7320968 -46.95 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Allahabad Bank Fut 160.05 Sell Below 159 162.25 2.04 152 4.40 Andhra Bank Fut 111.90 Sell Below 112 114.25 2.47 107 4.04 Bharti Airtel Fut 330.75 Sell Below 330 334.50 1.36 320 3.03 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19781 19828 19920 20058 20289 19690 19598 19368 S&P CNX NIFTY 5999 6012 6040 6081 6151 5970 5942 5872 NIFTY FEB 13 FUT. 6036 6030 6033 6030 6030 6033 6030 6030 Stocks To Watch Out Today Asian Paints, Aurobindo Pharma, BPCL, Cipla, Coal India, Dish TV, Guj. Flourochemicals, IB Realestate, Indusind Bank, IOC, ITC, Punj Lloyd, Renuka Sugar, Sun TV, Titan, Yes Bank, ZEEL AB Nuvo, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Bharti Airtel, Colgate, DLF, FT, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hexaware, Hindalco, ICICI Bank Idea, Infosys Tech; Kotak Bank, KTKBank, L&T, McLeod Russel, ONGC, PTC, Tata Motors, Ultratech Cemco, Uniphos Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com