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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                         5th March 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.     Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic
 BSE SENSEX                   17636.99         0.001     markets witnessed a higher opening. The overall trend
 S&P CNX NIFTY                5359.40          0.001     remained lackluster due to truncated trading day. The
 NIFTY MAR. FUT.              5396.50           0.09     markets witnessed selective buying support. The markets
 India VIX                     28.20            1.29     ended the day flat to close near the highs for the day. The top
                                                         gainers for the day were Rel. Power, BPCL, Rel. Infra, Rel.
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                   Comm., Jinal Steel, Tata Power, Dr, Reddys, Sun Pharma,
                    Level 1   Level 2         Level 3    Hero Motocorp and Axis Bank.
Support              5327      5161            5037
Resistance           5400      5681            5728
                                                         Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst
                                                         lower volumes. The global market cues are divergent.
        Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                    The domestic markets are likely to witness a flat to
50 Day SMA                    5119.72                    negative opening. The prevailing technical negatives are
                                             ◄Positive
100 Day SMA                   5048.95                    likely to weigh on the market sentiment and would trigger
200 Day SMA                   5166.94        ◄Positive
                                                         selling pressure at regular intervals. The MACD, RSI and
                                                         KST all are still placed below their respective averages,
             Volume (Lacs Shares)        *               which would lead to regular bouts of selling pressure.
                   03/03/12   02/03/12        % Chg.     Moreover, MACD has slipped in the negative territory and
BSE                  713       3169            -77.50    KST could possibly slip in the negative territory soon.
NSE                 1132       7826            -85.53
                                                         However, buying support is expected to be witnessed at
                                                         lower levels as the Stochastic is placed above its
Total               1845       10995           -83.22
                                                         average on the daily charts, which would trigger short
             Turnover ( ` Crores)        *               covering and buying support at regular intervals. The
                   03/03/12   02/03/12         % Chg.
                                                         Nifty remains placed above its key average’s the 50-day,
                                                         100-day and 200-day SMA. Moreover, the Nifty’s 50-day
BSE                524.81     3137.28          -83.27
                                                         SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA. The
NSE                1315.83    13032.45         -89.90
                                                         Nifty also is placed above its April’2011 descending trend
NSE F&O            6507.13    82547.09         -92.12    line. The market sentiment remains cautious. Now, it is
Total              8347.77    98716.82         -91.54    important that the markets witness buying support at
                                                         lower levels for the markets to move and sustain above
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *
                                                         the 5400 resistance level. Intermediate bouts of volatility
                   03/03/12   02/03/12         % Chg.
                                                         and choppiness are likely to be witnessed as slew of
Index Fut.          24959     506441           -95.07    events are lined up during this month and these news
Stock Fut.          47919     508909           -90.58    events would influence the market trend. In the
Index Opt.         144494     1866710          -92.26    meanwhile the markets would take cues from the news
Stock Opt.          11891     137099           -91.33    flow on state elections, RBI’s monetary policy, Union
Total              229263     3019159          -61.19    Budget, the global markets and of course the crude
                                                         prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5327, 5161,
             Market Breadth (NSE) *                      5037 and 4955. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5400, 5681
Advances                        722                      and 5728 levels.
Declines                        598                      NOTE: The Volume, Turnover and F&O Contracts Traded data are
                                                         strictly not comparable with the previous day as trading session on
Same                             72
                                                         3rd March was held only for 90 minutes.
Total                          1392
A/D Ratio                     1.21 : 1
NOTE -   *- Source – BSE & NSE
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                    Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                                Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
             4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                              www.keynotecapitals.com
Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)

                                                                                   Stop
                                                      Initiation        Stop       Loss                      Target
        Stock           Close          Action           Price          Loss *       (%)          Target       (%)            Remarks
Dabur                     105.70      Buy Above              106        103.25        2.59          112          5.66
Kotak Bank                566.50      Buy Above              571        555.70        2.68          605          5.95


McDowell                  559.10      Sell Below             556        572.75        3.01          519          6.65
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis.


                                                                Intra-day Resistance                        Intra-day Support
        Indices            Close         Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3                 S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                    17637                17644       17670      17703          17762         17611        17585         17526
S&P CNX NIFTY                  5359                 5361        5368        5377          5393            5352        5345         5328
NIFTY MAR. FUT.                5397                 5395        5404        5412          5428            5388        5379         5362




                                                              Keynote Capitals Ltd.
             th
           4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                            www.keynotecapitals.com
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written consent.




                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
     th
    4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                     www.keynotecapitals.com

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Daily Technical Outlook for Indian Markets

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 5th March 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic BSE SENSEX 17636.99 0.001 markets witnessed a higher opening. The overall trend S&P CNX NIFTY 5359.40 0.001 remained lackluster due to truncated trading day. The NIFTY MAR. FUT. 5396.50 0.09 markets witnessed selective buying support. The markets India VIX 28.20 1.29 ended the day flat to close near the highs for the day. The top gainers for the day were Rel. Power, BPCL, Rel. Infra, Rel. S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels Comm., Jinal Steel, Tata Power, Dr, Reddys, Sun Pharma, Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Hero Motocorp and Axis Bank. Support 5327 5161 5037 Resistance 5400 5681 5728 Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst lower volumes. The global market cues are divergent. Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY The domestic markets are likely to witness a flat to 50 Day SMA 5119.72 negative opening. The prevailing technical negatives are ◄Positive 100 Day SMA 5048.95 likely to weigh on the market sentiment and would trigger 200 Day SMA 5166.94 ◄Positive selling pressure at regular intervals. The MACD, RSI and KST all are still placed below their respective averages, Volume (Lacs Shares) * which would lead to regular bouts of selling pressure. 03/03/12 02/03/12 % Chg. Moreover, MACD has slipped in the negative territory and BSE 713 3169 -77.50 KST could possibly slip in the negative territory soon. NSE 1132 7826 -85.53 However, buying support is expected to be witnessed at lower levels as the Stochastic is placed above its Total 1845 10995 -83.22 average on the daily charts, which would trigger short Turnover ( ` Crores) * covering and buying support at regular intervals. The 03/03/12 02/03/12 % Chg. Nifty remains placed above its key average’s the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA. Moreover, the Nifty’s 50-day BSE 524.81 3137.28 -83.27 SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA. The NSE 1315.83 13032.45 -89.90 Nifty also is placed above its April’2011 descending trend NSE F&O 6507.13 82547.09 -92.12 line. The market sentiment remains cautious. Now, it is Total 8347.77 98716.82 -91.54 important that the markets witness buying support at lower levels for the markets to move and sustain above F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * the 5400 resistance level. Intermediate bouts of volatility 03/03/12 02/03/12 % Chg. and choppiness are likely to be witnessed as slew of Index Fut. 24959 506441 -95.07 events are lined up during this month and these news Stock Fut. 47919 508909 -90.58 events would influence the market trend. In the Index Opt. 144494 1866710 -92.26 meanwhile the markets would take cues from the news Stock Opt. 11891 137099 -91.33 flow on state elections, RBI’s monetary policy, Union Total 229263 3019159 -61.19 Budget, the global markets and of course the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5327, 5161, Market Breadth (NSE) * 5037 and 4955. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5400, 5681 Advances 722 and 5728 levels. Declines 598 NOTE: The Volume, Turnover and F&O Contracts Traded data are strictly not comparable with the previous day as trading session on Same 72 3rd March was held only for 90 minutes. Total 1392 A/D Ratio 1.21 : 1 NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Dabur 105.70 Buy Above 106 103.25 2.59 112 5.66 Kotak Bank 566.50 Buy Above 571 555.70 2.68 605 5.95 McDowell 559.10 Sell Below 556 572.75 3.01 519 6.65 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 17637 17644 17670 17703 17762 17611 17585 17526 S&P CNX NIFTY 5359 5361 5368 5377 5393 5352 5345 5328 NIFTY MAR. FUT. 5397 5395 5404 5412 5428 5388 5379 5362 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com