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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                             14th February 2013
         Indices *             Close           % Chg.                          Markets struggle higher
 BSE SENSEX                    19608.08              0.24
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5932.95              0.18
                                                               Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic
                                                               markets witnessed a positive opening. The markets moved
 NIFTY FEB 13 FUT.              5936.55              -0.08
                                                               higher on back of short covering and selective buying support
 India VIX                        15.14              -1.11
                                                               helping the Nifty to move above the 5966 level. However, the
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                         markets failed to sustain higher due to lack of follow of buying
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3         support and selling pressure at higher levels. The markets
Support           5885          5816            5747
                                                               ended the day with marginal gains to close near the lows for
                                                               the day. The top gainers for the day were HCL Tech; Tata
Resistance        5966          6158            6313
                                                               Motors, HDFC, ONGC, M&M, TCS, IDFC, Bharti Airtel, ICICI
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                          Bank and ACC.
50 Day SMA                     5961.77        ◄Negative
100 Day SMA                    5825.07
                                                               Technically, the market breadth remained negative
                                                               amidst lower volumes, indicating buying concentrated in
200 Day SMA                    5502.42
                                                               index heavyweight stocks. The prevailing negative
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE            technical conditions led to profit taking and selling
Advances                             892                413
                                                               pressure at higher levels. The Nifty remains placed
Declines                            1229                653
                                                               below its 50-day SMA. The negative divergence pattern
                                                               formed on the Nifty still holds good and remains a sign
Same                                 852                 46
                                                               of worry for the markets. The RSI, KST and MACD all are
Total                               2973              1112
                                                               placed below their respective averages. Moreover, the
A/D Ratio                        0.73 : 1           0.63 : 1   KST and MACD are placed in the negative territory,
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                    which warns of impending selling pressure. These
                                                               negative technical conditions would weigh on the market
               13/02/13        12/02/13        % Chg.
                                                               sentiment and lead to selling pressure at higher levels.
BSE                    2177         2643             -17.63
                                                               However, the prevailing positive technical conditions still
NSE                    7010         7564              -7.32    hold good and are leading to intermediate bouts of short
Total                  9187       10207               -9.99    covering. The Stochastic remains placed above its
                                                               average. The Nifty remains placed above its 100-day
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                    SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains
               13/02/13        12/02/13        % Chg.          placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the
BSE                  2041.36     1971.57               3.54    later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These
NSE              11054.46       10035.51             10.15     positive conditions would lead to intermediate bouts of
NSE F&O          97126.03       88154.24             10.18     buying support at lower levels. However, The -DI line, the
Total           110221.85 100161.32                  10.04     +DI line and the ADX line are moving sideways,
                                                               indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)             *              remains negative. Now, it is important that the markets
               13/02/13        12/02/13        % Chg.          witness buying support for the Nifty to move above the
Index Fut.           237093      196240              20.82     50-day SMA, other wise increased selling pressure is
Stock Fut.           482385      428011              12.70     likely to be witnessed and markets could test the 5816
Index Opt.        2096761       2002350                4.72
                                                               support level. In the meanwhile the markets would take
                                                               cues from the ongoing earnings season, global markets,
Stock Opt.           340654      256533              32.79
                                                               Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are
Total             3156893       2883134                6.19
                                                               placed at 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty faces resistance at
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE                                  5966, 6158, 6313 and 6358 levels.
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                     Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                     Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                    www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                              Stop
                                                   Initiation       Stop      Loss                      Target
       Stock           Close        Action           Price         Loss *      (%)          Target       (%)      Remarks
                                                                                                                 TGT of
                                                                                                                 144
                                                                                                                 Achieved
                                                                                                                 given Sell
                                                                                                                 @ 149 on
Allahabad Bank Fut     143.15      Sell Below           142.20     145.50         2.32          135       5.06   08/02/13
Cairn Fut              316.05      Sell Below           315.30     320.00         1.49          305       3.27
CESC Fut               301.60      Sell Below           301.20     305.50         1.43          292       3.05
                                                                                                                 TGT of
                                                                                                                 976
                                                                                                                 Achieved
                                                                                                                 given Sell
                                                                                                                 @ 1014
                                                                                                                 on
Fin. Tech. Fut         967.50    Sell Below        965.00     979.00              1.45          934       3.21   12/02/13
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                            Intra-day Resistance                     Intra-day Support
      Indices           Close        Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3              S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                 19608                19635      19696      19784        19933        19547       19486      19337
S&P CNX NIFTY               5933                 5942       5961       5988          6035        5914        5895       5849
NIFTY FEB 13 FUT.           5937                 5930       5933       5930          5930        5933        5930       5930




                                                          Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
Stocks To Watch Out Today
Coal India, Dabur, Delta Corp; Divis Labs, Havells, HCL Tech; HDFC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Indusind Bank, M&M,
Mphasis, Oil India, ONGC, Sobha, Sun Pharma, TCS, Ultratech Cemco
AB Nuvo, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Bank of India, BGR Energy, BHEL, BPCL, Cairn India, Canara Bank, Century
Textiles, CESC, DishTV, DLF, Dr. Reddys, Escorts, Federal Bank, FT, Gail, HCC, HDIL, Hero Motocorp; Hindalco, HPCL, IFCI
IVRCL, JIndal Saw,Jindal Steel, JSW Energy, Maruti, MRF, OFSS, Powergrid, Rel .Comm; Rel. Capital, Rel. Infra, Rel. Power,
Renuka Sugar, SAIL, Sesa Goa, Siemens, Sintex, Sterlite, Sun TV, Suzlon, Syndicate Bank, Tata Chem; Tata Coffee, Tata
Power, Tata Steel, Unitech, Videocon, Voltas, Yes Bank




NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average



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                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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Keynote technicals daily report for 140213

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 14th February 2013 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets struggle higher BSE SENSEX 19608.08 0.24 S&P CNX NIFTY 5932.95 0.18 Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic markets witnessed a positive opening. The markets moved NIFTY FEB 13 FUT. 5936.55 -0.08 higher on back of short covering and selective buying support India VIX 15.14 -1.11 helping the Nifty to move above the 5966 level. However, the S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels markets failed to sustain higher due to lack of follow of buying Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 support and selling pressure at higher levels. The markets Support 5885 5816 5747 ended the day with marginal gains to close near the lows for the day. The top gainers for the day were HCL Tech; Tata Resistance 5966 6158 6313 Motors, HDFC, ONGC, M&M, TCS, IDFC, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Bank and ACC. 50 Day SMA 5961.77 ◄Negative 100 Day SMA 5825.07 Technically, the market breadth remained negative amidst lower volumes, indicating buying concentrated in 200 Day SMA 5502.42 index heavyweight stocks. The prevailing negative Market Breadth * BSE NSE technical conditions led to profit taking and selling Advances 892 413 pressure at higher levels. The Nifty remains placed Declines 1229 653 below its 50-day SMA. The negative divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good and remains a sign Same 852 46 of worry for the markets. The RSI, KST and MACD all are Total 2973 1112 placed below their respective averages. Moreover, the A/D Ratio 0.73 : 1 0.63 : 1 KST and MACD are placed in the negative territory, Volume (Lacs Shares) * which warns of impending selling pressure. These negative technical conditions would weigh on the market 13/02/13 12/02/13 % Chg. sentiment and lead to selling pressure at higher levels. BSE 2177 2643 -17.63 However, the prevailing positive technical conditions still NSE 7010 7564 -7.32 hold good and are leading to intermediate bouts of short Total 9187 10207 -9.99 covering. The Stochastic remains placed above its average. The Nifty remains placed above its 100-day Turnover ( ` Crores) * SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains 13/02/13 12/02/13 % Chg. placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the BSE 2041.36 1971.57 3.54 later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These NSE 11054.46 10035.51 10.15 positive conditions would lead to intermediate bouts of NSE F&O 97126.03 88154.24 10.18 buying support at lower levels. However, The -DI line, the Total 110221.85 100161.32 10.04 +DI line and the ADX line are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * remains negative. Now, it is important that the markets 13/02/13 12/02/13 % Chg. witness buying support for the Nifty to move above the Index Fut. 237093 196240 20.82 50-day SMA, other wise increased selling pressure is Stock Fut. 482385 428011 12.70 likely to be witnessed and markets could test the 5816 Index Opt. 2096761 2002350 4.72 support level. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the ongoing earnings season, global markets, Stock Opt. 340654 256533 32.79 Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are Total 3156893 2883134 6.19 placed at 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty faces resistance at NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE 5966, 6158, 6313 and 6358 levels. Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks TGT of 144 Achieved given Sell @ 149 on Allahabad Bank Fut 143.15 Sell Below 142.20 145.50 2.32 135 5.06 08/02/13 Cairn Fut 316.05 Sell Below 315.30 320.00 1.49 305 3.27 CESC Fut 301.60 Sell Below 301.20 305.50 1.43 292 3.05 TGT of 976 Achieved given Sell @ 1014 on Fin. Tech. Fut 967.50 Sell Below 965.00 979.00 1.45 934 3.21 12/02/13 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19608 19635 19696 19784 19933 19547 19486 19337 S&P CNX NIFTY 5933 5942 5961 5988 6035 5914 5895 5849 NIFTY FEB 13 FUT. 5937 5930 5933 5930 5930 5933 5930 5930 Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Stocks To Watch Out Today Coal India, Dabur, Delta Corp; Divis Labs, Havells, HCL Tech; HDFC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Indusind Bank, M&M, Mphasis, Oil India, ONGC, Sobha, Sun Pharma, TCS, Ultratech Cemco AB Nuvo, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Bank of India, BGR Energy, BHEL, BPCL, Cairn India, Canara Bank, Century Textiles, CESC, DishTV, DLF, Dr. Reddys, Escorts, Federal Bank, FT, Gail, HCC, HDIL, Hero Motocorp; Hindalco, HPCL, IFCI IVRCL, JIndal Saw,Jindal Steel, JSW Energy, Maruti, MRF, OFSS, Powergrid, Rel .Comm; Rel. Capital, Rel. Infra, Rel. Power, Renuka Sugar, SAIL, Sesa Goa, Siemens, Sintex, Sterlite, Sun TV, Suzlon, Syndicate Bank, Tata Chem; Tata Coffee, Tata Power, Tata Steel, Unitech, Videocon, Voltas, Yes Bank NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com