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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                    14th May 2012
         Indices *          Close          % Chg.      The domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. The markets
 BSE SENSEX                16292.98          -0.77     drifted lower ahead of the IIP numbers. Selling pressure
 S&P CNX NIFTY              4928.90          -0.74     gained momentum on back of disappointing IIP data.
 NIFTY May FUT.             4931.35          -0.71     However, the markets managed to bounce back from the
 India VIX                   22.48           -1.05     4900 level. Buying momentum and short covering was
                                                       witnessed in the afternoon trade. However, markets failed to
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                 move above the psychologically important 5000 level on back
                 Level 1    Level 2         Level 3    of lack of follow up buying support and profit taking. The
Support           4777       4742            4636      markets ended the day with moderate losses to close near
Resistance        4950       5070            5106      the lows for the day. The top losers for the day Ranbaxy,
                                                       Grasim, Hindalco, Sun Pharma, Tata Power, ONGC, ACC,
        Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                  Dr. Reddys, Maruti and Cipla.
50 Day SMA                  5243.08
100 Day SMA                 5162.23                    Technically, the market breadth remained negative
200 Day SMA                 5102.88        ◄ Crucial   amidst lower volumes. The global market cues are
                                                       divergent. The domestic markets are likely to witness a
             Market Breadth (NSE) *                    flat opening. The Nifty remains placed below its 50-day
Advances                      445                      SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The prevailing
Declines                     1030                      technical negatives still continue to hold good and are
Same                           72                      likely to weigh on the market sentiment. The Stochastic,
Total                        1547                      KST, MACD and RSI are still placed below their
A/D Ratio                   0.43 : 1
                                                       respective averages. More so the KST and MACD are
                                                       placed in the negative territory and warn of impending
             Volume (Lacs Shares)      *               selling pressure. These negative technical conditions
               11/05/12     10/05/12        % Chg.     would lead to further selling pressure. The ADX line and
BSE              1913        1967            -2.75
                                                       +DI line are moving sideways, but –DI line is placed at
                                                       the 33.53 level indicating sellers are gaining strength.
NSE              6251        6405            -2.39
                                                       However, a few positives still hold good. The Stochastic
Total            8164        8372            -2.48
                                                       and RSI are placed in the over sold zone. The Nifty’s 50-
             Turnover ( ` Crores)      *               day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and
               11/05/12     10/05/12        % Chg.
                                                       200-day SMA. More so, the Nifty’s 100-day SMA is placed
                                                       above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positive technical
BSE             1923.53     1941.62          -0.93
                                                       conditions would prompt short covering and selective
NSE             9264.29     9693.13          -4.42
                                                       buying support at lower levels. The market sentiment
NSE F&O        123628.56   110722.89         11.66     remains negative. Now, it is important that the markets
Total          134816.38   122357.64         10.18     witness buying support at regular intervals for the Nifty
                                                       to move higher. The 200-day SMA remains a crucial
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)         *
                                                       resistance level for the markets. In the meanwhile the
               11/05/12     10/05/12        % Chg.
                                                       markets would take cues from the monthly inflation data,
Index Fut.      550359      515964           6.67      USDINR, Q4 results season along with global markets
Stock Fut.      490196      465755           5.25      and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed
Index Opt.     3778388      3287850          14.92     at 4777, 4742 and 4636. The Nifty faces resistance at the
Stock Opt.      181283      177028           2.40      4950, 5070, 5106 and 5250 levels.
Total          5000226      4446597          11.13

NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                                th
                     The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                            www.keynotecapitals.com
Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)

                                                                                Stop
                                                   Initiation        Stop       Loss                      Target
      Stock            Close         Action          Price          Loss *       (%)          Target       (%)            Remarks
ACC                    1165.95      Sell Below       1160.00        1187.00         2.33        1100           5.17
BGR Energy              294.55      Sell Below           290.00      308.00         6.21         250          13.79
Shipping Corp.           55.35   Sell Below         54.00             57.25         6.02          47          12.96
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.



                                                             Intra-day Resistance                        Intra-day Support
      Indices            Close         Pivot Point          R1       R2         R3                S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                  16293                16325      16416      16538          16752        16202         16111       15898
S&P CNX NIFTY                4929                 4937       4968        5007          5077            4898        4867       4797
NIFTY MAY FUT.               4931                 4962       5025        5118          5274            4869        4807       4651




                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                               th
                   The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com
Stocks to watch out today

Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Ashok Leyland, Aurobindo Pharma, Cipla, Coal India, Crompton Greaves, Godrej
Inds; HDFC, Hindalco, Hind oil Exploration, Infosys Tech; IRB Infra, ITC, IVRCL, JSW Steel, Karnataka Bank, LIC
Hsg; L&T, Lupin, Maruti, NTPC, Orchid Chemicals, PNB, Polaris, Powergrid, PTC, Ranbaxy, SunPharma, Tata
Power, Tech Mahindra, TTK Prestige, Axis Bank, Bajaja Auto, Colgate, Federal Bank, Idea, IDFC, Jubiliant Food,
Yes Bank




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     required to observe these restrictions.
     This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based
     upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any
     jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
     Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
     objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
     We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable
     though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected
     with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their
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     risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s
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     written consent.




                                                          Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                             th
                  The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                        www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 140512

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 14th May 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. The domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. The markets BSE SENSEX 16292.98 -0.77 drifted lower ahead of the IIP numbers. Selling pressure S&P CNX NIFTY 4928.90 -0.74 gained momentum on back of disappointing IIP data. NIFTY May FUT. 4931.35 -0.71 However, the markets managed to bounce back from the India VIX 22.48 -1.05 4900 level. Buying momentum and short covering was witnessed in the afternoon trade. However, markets failed to S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels move above the psychologically important 5000 level on back Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 of lack of follow up buying support and profit taking. The Support 4777 4742 4636 markets ended the day with moderate losses to close near Resistance 4950 5070 5106 the lows for the day. The top losers for the day Ranbaxy, Grasim, Hindalco, Sun Pharma, Tata Power, ONGC, ACC, Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Dr. Reddys, Maruti and Cipla. 50 Day SMA 5243.08 100 Day SMA 5162.23 Technically, the market breadth remained negative 200 Day SMA 5102.88 ◄ Crucial amidst lower volumes. The global market cues are divergent. The domestic markets are likely to witness a Market Breadth (NSE) * flat opening. The Nifty remains placed below its 50-day Advances 445 SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The prevailing Declines 1030 technical negatives still continue to hold good and are Same 72 likely to weigh on the market sentiment. The Stochastic, Total 1547 KST, MACD and RSI are still placed below their A/D Ratio 0.43 : 1 respective averages. More so the KST and MACD are placed in the negative territory and warn of impending Volume (Lacs Shares) * selling pressure. These negative technical conditions 11/05/12 10/05/12 % Chg. would lead to further selling pressure. The ADX line and BSE 1913 1967 -2.75 +DI line are moving sideways, but –DI line is placed at the 33.53 level indicating sellers are gaining strength. NSE 6251 6405 -2.39 However, a few positives still hold good. The Stochastic Total 8164 8372 -2.48 and RSI are placed in the over sold zone. The Nifty’s 50- Turnover ( ` Crores) * day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 11/05/12 10/05/12 % Chg. 200-day SMA. More so, the Nifty’s 100-day SMA is placed above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positive technical BSE 1923.53 1941.62 -0.93 conditions would prompt short covering and selective NSE 9264.29 9693.13 -4.42 buying support at lower levels. The market sentiment NSE F&O 123628.56 110722.89 11.66 remains negative. Now, it is important that the markets Total 134816.38 122357.64 10.18 witness buying support at regular intervals for the Nifty to move higher. The 200-day SMA remains a crucial F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * resistance level for the markets. In the meanwhile the 11/05/12 10/05/12 % Chg. markets would take cues from the monthly inflation data, Index Fut. 550359 515964 6.67 USDINR, Q4 results season along with global markets Stock Fut. 490196 465755 5.25 and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed Index Opt. 3778388 3287850 14.92 at 4777, 4742 and 4636. The Nifty faces resistance at the Stock Opt. 181283 177028 2.40 4950, 5070, 5106 and 5250 levels. Total 5000226 4446597 11.13 NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks ACC 1165.95 Sell Below 1160.00 1187.00 2.33 1100 5.17 BGR Energy 294.55 Sell Below 290.00 308.00 6.21 250 13.79 Shipping Corp. 55.35 Sell Below 54.00 57.25 6.02 47 12.96 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 16293 16325 16416 16538 16752 16202 16111 15898 S&P CNX NIFTY 4929 4937 4968 5007 5077 4898 4867 4797 NIFTY MAY FUT. 4931 4962 5025 5118 5274 4869 4807 4651 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Stocks to watch out today Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Ashok Leyland, Aurobindo Pharma, Cipla, Coal India, Crompton Greaves, Godrej Inds; HDFC, Hindalco, Hind oil Exploration, Infosys Tech; IRB Infra, ITC, IVRCL, JSW Steel, Karnataka Bank, LIC Hsg; L&T, Lupin, Maruti, NTPC, Orchid Chemicals, PNB, Polaris, Powergrid, PTC, Ranbaxy, SunPharma, Tata Power, Tech Mahindra, TTK Prestige, Axis Bank, Bajaja Auto, Colgate, Federal Bank, Idea, IDFC, Jubiliant Food, Yes Bank Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com